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December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th

Oct 30, 2017
1,378
Woodbridge
With the news of the PlayStation 4 selling 91.6 million up until the end of 2018, where does this put the approximate Xbox One figures Welfare?

I guesstimated a little under or a shy over 42 million — is that anywhere near close?

There kinda was a "PR message" from Microsoft I think. Didn't one of their seniors post on Twitter that X1 won the month* (because Switch didn't count for whatever reason)?
XBOX ONE: THE BEST-SELLING CONSOLE*

*in North America in July, August and September 2016.

Makes you wonder why some folks don’t wish to see them ‘winning’ again...
 
Oct 25, 2017
417
With the news of the PlayStation 4 selling 91.6 million up until the end of 2018, where does this put the approximate Xbox One figures Welfare?

I guesstimated a little under or a shy over 42 million — is that anywhere near close?



XBOX ONE: THE BEST-SELLING CONSOLE*

*in North America in July, August and September 2016.

Makes you wonder why some folks don’t wish to see them ‘winning’ again...
Because they don't like Xbox, the PR doesn't matter, that's it.
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,221
With the news of the PlayStation 4 selling 91.6 million up until the end of 2018, where does this put the approximate Xbox One figures Welfare?

I guesstimated a little under or a shy over 42 million — is that anywhere near close?
I'd have to wait for NPD but worldwide sales for XB1 2018 should be ~7M or higher.

It's over 40M now and will have a final LTD of over 50M.
 
Oct 30, 2017
1,378
Woodbridge
I'd have to wait for NPD but worldwide sales for XB1 2018 should be ~7M or higher.

It's over 40M now and will have a final LTD of over 50M.
I keep um’ing and ah’ing over whether it will pass the SNES (at 49.1 million) or not...

As usual, I shall look forward to your input once the next NPD report is publicly available.

Because they don't like Xbox, the PR doesn't matter, that's it.
Something tells me that you weren’t around when those big bold ‘the best selling console’ PR pieces with an asterisk at the end explaining in a tiny font what that PR claim actually meant.

They did it again when they chose to ignore the Switch — for reasons unbeknownst to us — when they pipped the PlayStation 4 in December 2017.

Like clockwork, they then go abruptly and eerily quiet every single month of the year until, inevitably, the following November and/or December.
 
Nov 21, 2018
349
Smash sold 2.6 million in Japan during the NPD tracking period ended 5th January.
Week 1 January in Japan is vastly different than Week 1 January US however.

Smash should break some records.
 
Jun 9, 2018
250
Smash sold 2.6 million in Japan during the NPD tracking period ended 5th January.
Week 1 January in Japan is vastly different than Week 1 January US however.

Smash should break some records.
January week 1 for switch in US may still have really good momentum compared to last year because of the late Q3 release of smash. It may even translate to all of january being up compared to last year with the help of nsmbud as well.
 

Benji

US Sales Insider
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,547
Xbox January drop is gonna be


Yikes

Unless they get some price promotions going at the end of the month
 
Nov 14, 2018
499
Xbox January drop is gonna be


Yikes

Unless they get some price promotions going at the end of the month
How are all the consoles handling the new year drop? I assume the older consoles are obviously going to suffer due to their old age and still high price after 5 years
 
Oct 25, 2017
7,783
How are all the consoles handling the new year drop? I assume the older consoles are obviously going to suffer due to their old age and still high price after 5 years
I’m betting on a repeat of last January. No deals for any of the consoles, but Switch gets that lasting holiday momentum.
 
Nov 5, 2017
3,831
Xbox January drop is gonna be


Yikes

Unless they get some price promotions going at the end of the month
X1 having a big drop doesn't surprise me at all really, it comes from selling sensibly more than PS4 thanks to price cuts, and to be fair it's clearly the console with the least demand of the three.

PS4 and NSW comparison YoY are far more interesting imo.
 
Nov 2, 2017
8,874
Is January up in the air in terms on who could take it or we should just expect Switch to be first from now on? PS4 has KH3 and RE2 and coming from a low December while Switch has Mario and Smash momentum but coming from a giant December.
 
Jan 21, 2018
1,889
Thats the problem with the Xbox One, its sales when it has a sale price stem from good to stellar, but when it has to sell without any push they tend to be considerably weak.

The platform enjoyed a boost in sales from 2017 when the year started because the Xbox One X was still very new, now that novelty has worn out at this point. I honestly dont see Xbox´s sales being healthy this year which makes me think the Xbox Scarlet will be announced sooner than many think
 
Oct 25, 2017
7,783
Is January up in the air in terms on who could take it or we should just expect Switch to be first from now on? PS4 has KH3 and RE2 and coming from a low December while Switch has Mario and Smash momentum but coming from a giant December.
Think of it this way, last year Nintendo had nothing in January and Odyssey tide was riding from October (Xenoblade was December but that isn’t really a console pusher here) and January had Monster Hunter for the other consoles. It’s a similar trapping but this year has relatively a lot more on Nintendo’s plate.
 
Dec 10, 2017
3,662
Think of it this way, last year Nintendo had nothing in January and Odyssey tide was riding from October (Xenoblade was December but that isn’t really a console pusher here) and January had Monster Hunter for the other consoles. It’s a similar trapping but this year has relatively a lot more on Nintendo’s plate.
Between the evergreens, Let’s Go, Smash, and NSMBU, Nintendo is good until March most likely.
 
Nov 2, 2017
143
I really wish Nintendo (I’d say Microsoft too but that’s wishful thinking) would release holidays PR too.
There kinda was a "PR message" from Microsoft I think. Didn't one of their seniors post on Twitter that X1 won the month* (because Switch didn't count for whatever reason)?
Not quite. Xbox pre-empted the NPD report and briefed the press. The general message was "Xbox bigger and more popular than PlayStation this holiday season". A lot of people assumed Xbox had sold-through the most units because they were proudly boasting about sales again, but when pressed for more information Aaron Greenberg acknowledged that Switch had topped the month iirc. The pre-emptive PR did a good job of making Xbox seem like the biggest winner despite Nintendo having the best overall result.
 
Dec 10, 2017
3,662
Not quite. Xbox pre-empted the NPD report and briefed the press. The general message was "Xbox bigger and more popular than PlayStation this holiday season". A lot of people assumed Xbox had sold-through the most units because they were proudly boasting about sales again, but when pressed for more information Aaron Greenberg acknowledged that Switch had topped the month iirc. The pre-emptive PR did a good job of making Xbox seem like the biggest winner despite Nintendo having the best overall result.
Exact word marketing.
 
Oct 25, 2017
9,674
Switch should probably take January.

February and March should be interesting though. After Mario Deluxe (which released today) It doesn’t look like a major Switch title will launch before Yoshi on March 29th, so I’m not too confident those two months are a lock for Nintendo.
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,864
Switch should probably take January.

February and March should be interesting though. After Mario Deluxe (which released today) It doesn’t look like a major Switch title will launch before Yoshi on March 29th, so I’m not too confident those two months are a lock for Nintendo.
I agree, unless something does get dated for that period I'm betting we'll see a lull starting in late January and continuing in February. I'm not sure how the other consoles will sell then though so it's tough to declare right now who will top those months.

But to me it seems like the Switch's momentum is definitely gonna slow down in a few weeks. Again, unless they do manage to announce something somewhat major for February or earlier March.
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,202
Xbox January drop is gonna be


Yikes

Unless they get some price promotions going at the end of the month
IIRC January hasn't been a pretty month for Xbox this gen. After the deals in the holidays, it goes back to the momentum of the systems themselves. Xbox is quite a bit behind the other two in that regard.
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,221
I'm thinking Switch takes pretty much every month this year easily. Should be up by a decent bit for some months (not even factoring in a potential new model) while PS4 drops YOY pretty much every month.

I'll be more surprised if Switch gets outsold during any month this year than if it sold the most every month.

As for Xbox One, the only January that had good sales was 2018. Every other January it sold terribly. Absolutely no deals after what they had in December, this month won't look good at all compared to 2018.
 
Oct 29, 2017
1,532
WA, australia
I'm thinking Switch takes pretty much every month this year easily. Should be up by a decent bit for some months (not even factoring in a potential new model) while PS4 drops YOY pretty much every month.

I'll be more surprised if Switch gets outsold during any month this year than if it sold the most every month.

As for Xbox One, the only January that had good sales was 2018. Every other January it sold terribly. Absolutely no deals after what they had in December, this month won't look good at all compared to 2018.
Interesting. I have switch easily taking the later/most months of the year, but I feel like ps4 still has a lot of compelling software these first few months, and we will notice it’s downward spiral much more in the second half of the year (and vice versa w switch since I expect Ac + Pokémon in half 2). Maybe I’m overestimating ps4.
 
Oct 25, 2017
7,783
doesn't RE2 remake and KH3 makes the PS4 more likely to take January ?
Monster Hunter didn’t and that took 1st place in software. And Nintendo didn’t actually release anything that month.

There’s the more real chance people bought PS4s earlier than January because of those holiday deals and to prep for those two games.