Hmmm it should clear that I think. First 2 days were strong for it
But not 100% sure
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December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
- Thread starter donny2112
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Hmmm it should clear that I think. First 2 days were strong for it
But not 100% sure
Do you also think it moves notable amounts of hardware for the system? I'm conflicted on how much it would move. MK8D definitely is a major hardware mover, and 2D Mario is a massive franchise as well, but it's one that has suffered from fatigue due to it being considered so similar to previous games in the same style. Reviews aren't as stellar as the ones for MK8D (92 metacritic for MK8D vs. 80 for NSMBUDX), so that might give it less power, too.
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Going by the sell data from 2015, X sold 114,665 in Japan, 40,000 in France in two weeks, and over 200,000 physical copies during the month of December in the US, given us over 470,000 sells in 2015 with just physical, with 23,000 being digital copies during May 2015 in Japan.
So yeah, I was wrong that did over a million, but it did closed to half a million going by the sells that we know of and I can't find any hard data pass 2015 and we only have digital sells from Japan.
Yeah, was wrong about that. It did about half a million in 2015, but after that it's hard to find any hard sell data on it.
As of now no
But honestly the Switch is selling so strong right now that it doesn't really matter it's not pushing hardware
I see, so the Smash effect is carrying over into January? It makes sense,considering it released only just over a month ago. Last year's January was quite strong, too, I believe. Wasn't it like 300k, or did I make that up?
Last January was very strong for Switch yeah
And yes Pokemon / Smash as well as general momentum for the Switch is carrying it well right now.
We are not that far actually.
The last official numbers directly from MS ( 2016 ) was almost 65% sold in US alone.
After this if we take account of EA's numbers and npd tracking, it's about the same.
In many countries, you can't even find xbox one anywhere anymore, even in big supermarkets.
The general estimates are correct imo. 40-42M X1 sold actually.
I would. Selling over a million doesn't really change that Xenoblade's appeal is very limited.
Selling close to a million isn't the proper definition of 'niche'. Otherwise, 90% of games would be considered niche. There is a reason why selling 500,000 to a million is considered hitting mainstream or something close to it. It's something a lot of games don't do.
Its not that far if you consider being more than a year worth of sales off not that far....
I mean being 8 million away from 50 million for Xbox is nothing like the PS4 being 8 million away from 100 million. Sony can sell that many PS4s in a matter of months even before the holiday season starts this year. MS has to push the Xbox with monthly sales that markdown the console´s price, new bundle SKUs, and do heavy promos during the holidays to sell that much in the year.
Actually, the proper definition of niche is a product, service, or interest that appeals to a small, specialized segment of the population.
So, Xenoblade. We can agree to disagree on this though.
Pretty sure such a thing does not exist.
The last official units sold-in number was close to 10 million in mid November 2014.
https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2014/11/12/xbox-one-sales-on-the-rise/
At that point the US sales were roughly 3.7 million with 2.5 million additional units sold during the holiday season.
During launch in 2013, US was 60% of all Xbox One sales.
That's the only accurate and official number from Microsoft provided.
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Honestly, by that definition, console gaming itself fall into that since it is niche compared to other segments mobile.
I'm just worried that won't really last until April (well March 29th), which as of now has basically the next major release on the console. That's a pretty big gap.
And I don't think Yoshi is really even that major. Nintendo really needs to work on Q1 software momentum in the future.
Benji So at this rate, Switch may end up #1 in January as well? How far ahead is it compared to 2018?
Don't think it's realistic to expect no new game announcements via directs from now until April.
Yeah I'm expecting some announcements but as of now we have nothing. Hopefully we'll know more this week.
If your conjecture is correct and you assume 65% of total Xbox hardware sales are in the US, In what universe is 35% a trivial, negligible percentage?
Your point?
Yeah the question is for how long Pokemon, Smash and NSMBUDX can uphold momentum. As you say, next big Nintendo launch is at the very tail end of the FY and to be honest.. there isnt much from third parties either in February and March.. At least not yet revealed.. February has Trials Rising from Ubisoft and March looks very slim. A big February game would look very nice looking at the release schedule...
However from April it looks extremely promising from a third party perspective so not worried about the momentum to start the new FY.
Not sure. Monday would probably be the best bet if it's in regards to December sales. If we dont get one tomorrow then they may not comment on it until NPD release
Would be surprising if they elect not to though as they have a lot to brag about
Well on January 30th Switch, Smash and evergreen sales will be all over the press anyway because of how good they were.
His/her definition is correct. It's the definition people use in business.
Niches are segment of markets referring to homogenous consumer groups. A niche is not defined by sales even if it's of course strictly related.
I believe this January has a week less compared to last January,so being up will be a major challenge.
This is correct.
The weekly average should be compared to get a better picture of the Switch performance this year vs last year.
a "big" february game for switch isn't happening. The most possible a January direct could announce would be a mid tier game or port, and even then 1 month is short.
No notable game would get < 1 month promotion time. That wouldn't be smart.
We've known this since September 2018 actually.
None of the known games were given a "spring" time except Yoshi, and FE.
It was kind of figured one of the two would hit March, and the other after the FY ended. Yoshi being the more obvious candidate since we'd seen it, and it turned out so. (TGA was the last last chance, but that'd be a port as well)
but now it's suddenly surprising news
No notable game would get < 1 month promotion time. That wouldn't be smart.
We've known this since September 2018 actually.
None of the known games were given a "spring" time except Yoshi, and FE.
It was kind of figured one of the two would hit March, and the other after the FY ended. Yoshi being the more obvious candidate since we'd seen it, and it turned out so. (TGA was the last last chance, but that'd be a port as well)
but now it's suddenly surprising news
The way you've been talking, I'm gonna need a full on redesign from Nomura before the numbers come out.
Unfortuanatley for them werent a large part of the NA user base Kinect users? I remember kinect blowing up xbox sales in the second half of the gen. Those people have probably moved on from motion gaming. If true then I never expect a rediculous 20 million gap between the ps and xbox again unless one of them once again screws the launch.
Switch selling well in January + the recent digital sale seems to have energized a ton of eShop evergreens in the US. MK8D raced to #2, Breath of the Wild climbed to #6, Super Mario Party stole #8, and Splatoon 2 spilled into #10. Super Mario Odyssey seems to have capped at #18 however, but at least NSMBUD jumped to #1 shortly after release.
https://discourse-cdn-sjc1.com/game.../69a6d5d8967bcbf9ad2f295d8647f4afbe987485.jpg
From september 2016.
In a universe where those 35% include UK ( big xbox market ), and the rest of the world just doesn't care at all about xbox brand.
I don't know where you are from. I'm from Europe, went the past year in spain, germany or italia, and couldn't find a single xbox game or console in supermarkets. It simply doesn't exist anymore. Moreover compared to PS4 where US is only 30% of their market, and stil ahead in US by a fair margin.
I'm not saying it's a good thing, actually it's pretty sad. It's just a fact.
I think 2018 january had 270k for switch, which was an 82% drop in weekly sales compared to december 2017. Based on 2M sales for dec 2018 and the fact that this jan has 1 less week, an 82% drop puts switch at 288k jan.
YoY, weekly sales go from 54k/wk to 72k/wk.
This is all just speculative, and is based on 2M dec for switch which is a complete guess.
YoY, weekly sales go from 54k/wk to 72k/wk.
This is all just speculative, and is based on 2M dec for switch which is a complete guess.
Even in mainland Europe, Germany France, the X1 will sell well over 1m units in both markets.
Possibly more.
It's just software where the console does poorly
Yup. Here in Mexico, Xbox is pretty popular. It isn't as expensive to get as a PS4 or switch.
Do you have any idea how big those markets are over all ?
We hardly get any info on them at all.
Would be interesting since they are markets that console makers can get growth from .
Since Xenoblade is selling more (growing) with each release, I would say it's not a niche series (anymore :P )
Wondering this as well, wonder if Brazil or Mexico sell either in the 5 digits or 6 digits numbers monthly.
I must confess that at this point, I feel like I'm being trolled.
I think you really should read back to see what the conversation you joined was all about. There is no logic in rounding up 65% to 100%.
I wonder about the potential growth in those regions.
I have a feeling that a company that bothered to jump through the hoops imposed by the Brazilian government to produce consoles affordable to the average Brazilian would be able to shift a fuckton of units, but I don't know how realistic that is.
link to those official 65% numbers?
i definitely believe it's higher than 40-42. if it's shipped 50 (it almost certainly has) then it's probably sold like 46. in the absence of evidence though we are only guessing. my guess is based on historical data though, yours must by necessity be based on nothing. If you have up to date hardware numbers for Germany, France, Canada, spain, Mexico, Australia, russia, norway/finland/sweden poland, brazil, netherlands, italy, etc let me know.
i think people have been saying Xbox isn't even sold in very very small countries in europe for at least 20 years now or i've been reading it that long. even if true, sales are moving online.
EA's numbers? those were proven false a long time ago. Literally they said Xbox sold less worldwide than it had provably sold via npd just in USA one year IIRC. So if you are using those EA numbers it says a lot about your accuracy.
Off my head (if sales gurus can LINK updated numbers, great!)
25m USA
5m UK
Canada~10% USA estimated? So ~2.5m
France 1.3, Germany 1.3 IIRC (very very years old numbers now)
Spain ~300k?
japan (lol) 100k
that's about 35. au must be 1m (just guessing though).
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If you say so (lol)
Let's entertain for a second that your hugely overestimated Xbox numbers are correct. Who are these retailers that are buying 4 million of unsold stock of the generation's less popular console? That's like the whole 9-10 months of yearly pre-season Xbox worldwide sales.
PS4 sold to consumers number is tracking only about a million behind the shipped number at any time.