Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of November and December. This is where comparing weekly averages is better than simple month to month because December is a 5 week month while November is only 4. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for December to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.
Code:
2012
Xbox 360 November: 1.259M / 4 = 314,750
Xbox 360 December: 1.4M / 5 = 280,000
Weekly average -11%
PS3 November: 762K / 4 = 190,500
PS3 December: 635K / 5 = 127,000
Weekly average -37%
3DS November: 540K / 4 = 135,000
3DS December: 1.25M / 5 = 250,000
Weekly average +85%
Notable Events in December
Xbox 360
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
PS3
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
3DS
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
Mario Kart 7 Blue XL bundle $199
Code:
2013
Xbox 360 November: 647K / 4 = 161,750
Xbox 360 December: 643K / 5 = 128,600
Weekly average -20%
PS3 November: 407K / 4 = 101,750
PS3 December: 299K / 5 = 59,800
Weekly average -41%
3DS November: 741K / 4 = 185,250
3DS December: 1.06M / 5 = 212,000
Weekly average +14%
Notable Events in December
Xbox 360
First full month of Xbox One launch
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
PS3
First full month of PS4 launch
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
3DS
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
Mario & Luigi: Dream Team Special Themed Silver + Black XL bundle $199
Code:
2014
Xbox One November: 1.231M / 4 = 307,750
Xbox One December: 1.297M / 5 = 259,400
Weekly average -16%
PS4 November: 831K / 4 = 207,750
PS4 December: 1.065M / 5 = 213,000
Weekly average +3%
3DS November: 515K / 4 = 128,750
3DS December: 810K / 5 = 162,000
Weekly average +26%
Xbox 360 November: 306K / 4 = 76,500
Xbox 360 December: 309K / 5 = 61,800
Weekly average -19%
PS3 November: 89K / 4 = 22,250
PS3 December: 174K / 5 = 34,800
Weekly average +56%
Notable Events in December
Xbox One
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
PS4
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
3DS
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
Xbox 360
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
PS3
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
Code:
2015
Xbox One November: 1.296M / 4 = 324,000
Xbox One December: 1.376M / 5 = 275,200
Weekly average -15%
PS4 November: 1.539M / 4 = 384,750
PS4 December: 1.582M / 5 = 316,400
Weekly average -18%
3DS November: 350K / 4 = 87,500
3DS December: 581K / 5 = 116,200
Weekly average +33%
Notable Events in December
Xbox One
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
$50 price drop - 500GB Bundles $299 / 1TB Bundles $349 / Kinect $449 December 9 - December 26 [3 weeks]
PS4
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
$50 price drop - 500GB model $299 December 6 - December 19 [2 weeks]
Call of Duty Black Ops 3 500GB Bundle $349 [3 weeks]
3DS
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
Code:
2016 / Apparently the November numbers are off so this comparison is off
Xbox One November: 1.007M / 4 = 251,750
Xbox One December: 1.511M / 5 = 302,200
Weekly average +20%
PS4 November: 1.112M / 4 = 278,000
PS4 December: 1.568M / 5 = 313,600
Weekly average +13%
3DS November: 556K / 4 = 139,000
3DS December: 593K / 5 = 118,600
Weekly average -15%
Notable Events in December
Xbox One
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
$50 price drop - 500GB Bundles $249 / 1TB Bundles $299 December 11 - December 24 [2 weeks]
Final Fantasy XV [5 weeks]
PS4
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
$50 price drop - 500GB model $249 December 11 - December 31 [3 weeks]
Final Fantasy XV Luna Black 1TB Bundle $449 [Gamestop] [5 weeks]
Call of Duty Infinite Warfare Deluxe Edition 500GB Bundle $299 [1 week]
Final Fantasy XV [5 weeks]
3DS
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
Code:
2017
Switch November: 775K / 4 = 193,750
Switch December: 1.5M / 5 = 300,000
Weekly average +55%
Xbox One November: 1.38M / 4 = 345,000
Xbox One December: 1.365M / 5 = 273,000
Weekly average -21%
PS4 November: 1.69M / 4 = 422,500
PS4 December: 1.08M / 5 = 216,000
Weekly average -49%
Notable Events in December
Switch
Cyber Monday / Christmas
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 [5 weeks]
Xbox One
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
Xbox One X Second Month
Month long continuation of Black Friday prices [5 weeks]
500GB bundles $199 December 17 - December 31 [2 weeks]
PUBG with every Xbox One X December 17 - December 31 [2 weeks]
PLAYERUNKNOWN'S Battlegrounds [3 weeks]
PS4
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
PS4 Pro $50 price drop December 10 - December 16 [1 week]
PS4 Slim 1TB $249 December 17 - December 24 [1 week]
Code:
2018 November Weekly Averages
PS4: 1.48M / 4 = 370,000
Switch: 1.36M / 4 = 340,000
Xbox One: 1.34M / 4 = 335,000
Notable Events in December
Switch
Numerous Monthly Deals / Christmas
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate [5 weeks]
Xbox One
Numerous Monthly Deals / Christmas
Xbox One S $249 / Xbox One X $399 / Xbox One X Bundles $449 December 2 - 15
Xbox One S $199 / Xbox One X $399 December 16 - 25 *Walmart started this on the 14th
PS4
Numerous Monthly Deals(?)/ Christmas
Notes
The biggest month of the year in terms of absolute sales. However, December has fallen from November in terms of weekly average as sales concentrate more towards Black Friday in recent years (if you're not Nintendo). December usually has three massive sales days, Cyber Monday (Monday after Thanksgiving), Green Monday (Smaller Cyber Monday, second Monday of December) and Super Saturday (Saturday before Christmas). After Super Saturday, holiday spending is over, so there are 4 weeks of holiday sales and 1 post holiday week.
This year is not like the others. Due to 2018 being a 53 week year, this pushed Black Friday week to November tracking, the first time in 10 years. The final week of December this year could be treated like the first week of January.
Xbox
The Xbox One sees standard weekly average drops, similar to the Xbox 360, in 2014, 2015, and 2017. 2017 had the lowest drop thanks to November having the launch of the Xbox One X. 2016 actually saw the only increase during the years covered. This could be because November was an incredibly weak month in terms of software moving consoles and the One S hit $249.
As noted above, Cyber Monday week is not included in December this year. This will mean a disadvantage for the weekly average this year compared to previous years.
Xbox One this December actually had better deals than Black Friday, where every One S bundle was $199 and every One X bundle was $399 for the Christmas period. This deal ended on Christmas unlike 2017 where it ended in early January. I'd argue XB1 is in store for a good December period because of how it sold in November but I'm expecting a total sale decrease from November.
Playstation
PS4 in 2014 actually saw a small increase of 3%, but in 2015 had a drop of 18% despite dropping the price $50 for 2 weeks thanks to hardware bundle launches in November. 2016 also saw another increase thanks to the PS4 slim which I think sold much more for the same reason as the Xbox One. Weak November leading to a much better December because of weak software launches and price cuts pushing sales.
2017 saw a massive decrease due to weak price promotions and a comparison to the PS4's highest ever November.
December 2018 is probably going to be even worse than 2017 in terms of weekly average drop. Not only is Cyber Monday week in November this year, Sony had absolutely no deals on the PS4. I don't even know if retailers had specific deals for the PS4, which is why I put a question mark in the 2018 section above. Holiday shopping will guarantee hundreds of thousands of sales, but I don't think 1M is realistic this year.
Nintendo
Merry Switchmas and have a great Newtendo Year.
The 3DS averages a rise of +27% with the only drop being -15% (2016) thanks to supply constraints, and the largest rise being +85% (2012).
Honestly, Nintendo does massive numbers in December. Their products are Christmas gift fodder, essentially. Always a reliable product for the younger demographic.
Nintendo consoles usually see December double November in total sales or around there and it isn't limited to handhelds. Even the Wii U saw these increases.
Code:
Wii U 2013 2014 2015
November 223K 240K 240K
December 481K 575K 463K
% increase +116% +140% +93%
Switch had a +93% MOM increase in December 2017 with a weekly average increase of +55%, and that was just purely on the selling power of the Switch as a product and evergreen software. No price cuts, no special game launches in the month, and it nearly outsold what the PS4 and XB1 have done in their peak December's.
Not only is Switch still a highly desired item this holiday, Super Smash Bros Ultimate launched at the beginning of the tracking month. Ultimate sold over 3M units in the US in just 11 days. We also know Switch did an incredible 1.36M in November, higher than every Wii November except its 2.04M in 2008, and is the highest November for a Nintendo product since the DS in 2010 with 1.5M.
Recap
December usually increases in total sales from November, but weekly averages see a decrease, unless you are Nintendo.
The biggest December ever recorded in the 7th gen was the Wii with 3,810,000 back in 2009. Second biggest? Wii again with 2,360,000 back in 2010.
The biggest December ever recorded in the 8th gen was the PS4 with 1,582,000 in 2015. Second biggest? PS4 again with 1,568,000 in 2016.
