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December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
PS4 had 0 deals at 0 retailers in December
The Xbox One was $100 off on the S and the X in December. November was already very close and that was with the $199 Spidey PS4
[NSW] 2100K
[XB1] 1100K
[PS4] 900K
For the first time ever (I think), I am putting the XB1 above PS4. I think that's one of the horsemen of the apocalypse—we just need Death, Famine and me buying an XB2 before the end of days.
[XB1] 1100K
[PS4] 900K
For the first time ever (I think), I am putting the XB1 above PS4. I think that's one of the horsemen of the apocalypse—we just need Death, Famine and me buying an XB2 before the end of days.
OP
OP
Thought about that, but MatP said that Cyber Monday really wasn't big for console sales, anyways. Therefore, wasn't sure it was worth mentioning. MatP also said that the Saturday before Christmas might've been the largest single sales day in U.S. history, but wasn't sure if he was speaking based on numbers or more how things had shaped up to that point.
I normally start out following the crowd, lol.
Then adjust here n there.
Seeing the predictions the first thing I thought of was did XBO have any deals in Dec. Seems like it did reading Welfare's post. Sony not doing any deals I expect it to come in last. Just like last Dec.
Wait, the weekly average of switch november 2018(340k/week) is bigger than 2017 december(300k/week)? This will be a MASSIVE december 2018.
2017 had a 55% increase from nov to dec for switch in weekly average, the same increase for 2018 nov to dec puts switch at 527k/week for dec.
[NSW] 2635k
[XB1] 1200K
[PS4] 900K
2017 had a 55% increase from nov to dec for switch in weekly average, the same increase for 2018 nov to dec puts switch at 527k/week for dec.
[NSW] 2635k
[XB1] 1200K
[PS4] 900K
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That's interesting, why is that that Software is harder to predict than hardware ? Just curious
Hmm? I'm not saying software is hard to predict
I'm saying there will be some major SMASHing headlines for software as well
Except if you read up on historical trends you'll see that Xbox is relatively much stronger than playstation during December. Especially if it has significantly better deals
Inch resting.
(Woops this wasn't supposed to be a separate post)
Not in 2018. In 2017. Or maybe you already have the data.
I'm in! First time I think, and after my inevitable last place probably last time.
I think Switch will have shot past Wii 2008 and even 2010, and get within spitting distance of PS1 record 1998. Xbox will remain almost flat due to the good deals the extra interest of X and the extra week, PS4 has its usual decline and will therefore make the picture look bleaker than it is.
[NSW] 2400K
[XB1] 1280K
[PS4] 790K
I think Switch will have shot past Wii 2008 and even 2010, and get within spitting distance of PS1 record 1998. Xbox will remain almost flat due to the good deals the extra interest of X and the extra week, PS4 has its usual decline and will therefore make the picture look bleaker than it is.
[NSW] 2400K
[XB1] 1280K
[PS4] 790K
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Several others have data, and it's been a discussion in the previous NPD thread for weeks now.
Hmm, 900*2+1200=3000, maybe I should put Switch at 3M so that this can be true
Halo 3 did ~3.3M in 2007 in 11 tracked days per NPD, for its first month total.
Smash Ultimate was sitting at >3.0M (physical + digital) through 11 tracked days per Nintendo, and then had another 18 days within the tracking period to go, including pre-Christmas week and weekend, Christmas week, pre-NY weekend and NY week.
NPD only reports physical for Nintendo software. My guess is with those 18 extra days it came close to doubling that figure through Jan 4, as Switch hardware would have really hit a frenzy in those days prior to Christmas and Smash was probably a popular 1st or 2nd software choice, then of course continued to be a popular software choice post-Christmas with gift-cards/gift-money. High 5-6M total (retail + digital) for the full Dec NPD tracking period, with physical representing probably ~75-80% for a substantial new NPD record for 1st month single-platform title (in the vicinity of 5M, mid-$30M in revenue terms with an ASP of >$60.00).
There was a guy with data on November npd thread saying Xbox had a bad start in December. So who knows.
I'm not sure why you quoted me. I was merely linking what I thought was the clearest hint Benji made to possible a big December headline. Doesn't mean there won't be others.
A post of mine happened to be at the top of your link discussing Smash U sales.
So I'll throw out one disclaimer like always
My predictions are never gospel until the NPD release. Dont let my musings make your predictions up for you, as there is always a chance the market plays out differently than what I have access to.
I think I may have been a bit too forward this month as it looks less fun now as so many predictions are so similar lol
My predictions are never gospel until the NPD release. Dont let my musings make your predictions up for you, as there is always a chance the market plays out differently than what I have access to.
I think I may have been a bit too forward this month as it looks less fun now as so many predictions are so similar lol
[NSW] 2450k
[XB1] 1100k
[PS4] 950k
I've never participated in these but it seems obvious so I'll see what happens!
[XB1] 1100k
[PS4] 950k
I've never participated in these but it seems obvious so I'll see what happens!
Ah. The link should've led to a post midway through the page, but sometimes it acts funny depending on your browser.
