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December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th

Benji

Benji

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Dr. Mario said:
Whackjob conspiracy time, but I sometimes feel Sony is aware of little sales console war threads like these, and is actively gaming them. Like creating too good to be true Brack Furaidai Bundarus, and a few one week deals in other slow months but knowing December is a lost cause with Nintendo, so not putting in any deals there. Otherwise I have no clue why they eat into their revenue so much in October/November.
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I can tell you people from Sony, MS, Nintendo, GameStop, and other major retailers read the NPD threads every month. That is 100% true

But nah these threads have no bearing on their actual business plans other than they like to read some of the more educated peoples posts
 
Sander VF

Sander VF

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Oct 28, 2017
25,913
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Benji said:
I can tell you people from Sony, MS, Nintendo, GameStop, and other major retailers read the NPD threads every month. That is 100% true

But nah these threads have no bearing on their actual business plans other than they like to read some of the more educated peoples posts
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Ah you mean the fanboys can gloat to the "opposing" companies directly?

And speaking of gloating, it seems those who were insisting that Smash is not a system seller are in for some rough "Nicheman" style funt times.
 

Deleted member 13101

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Oct 27, 2017
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This thread just got underway. Let's try to focus more on the sales and less on the fanboys or fanbois or however you want to spell it. Thanks!
 
ThatRandomCliff

ThatRandomCliff

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Feb 22, 2018
2,260
[NSW] 2350k
[PS4] 877k
[XB1] 1009k

Just for fun, i bet Smash Bros (physical only obviously) did 4400k
EDIT: thinking about it now, I think 4600k is more likely (physical). Just a gut feeling. Though i suppose that doesn't count as thinking.
 
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donny2112

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Oct 27, 2017
620
Limabean01 said:
Except if you read up on historical trends you'll see that Xbox is relatively much stronger than playstation during December. Especially if it has significantly better deals
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I don't know if Microsoft is historically better than Sony in December, but December buyers are a very different consumer than most of the rest of the year. Sales (i.e. discounts) are king in November and that usually carries onto December. Therefore if MS has system discounts and Sony does not, it's going to weight the playing field much more in the last two months of the year more than any other month in the year.
 
Toni

Toni

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Nov 13, 2017
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It's going to be the same as last year.

But the tricky part will be hitting the nail on the head with Switch's numbers.

I'm not gona overshoot it though.

[NSW] 2000K
[PS4] 1000K
[XB1] 1100K

Its Switch season. Without a doubt.
 

Deleted member 2340

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Benji said:
Eh I've been doing this for a LONG time. Like a decade now. I guess this month in particular has gained a lot of traction. In my years of doing this I've gotten used to the drama it comes with.

Like when Switch sell 1.9m units and PS4 1.01m in December NPD my notifications / Twitter Feed will be a mess
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Damn... I hope your not being harassed or bothered too much. Lol.. you don't create these numbers they're just part of what you do for a living.
 
Paronth

Paronth

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Oct 25, 2017
268
[NSW] 2420k
[PS4] 745k
[XB1] 1310k

Last year holiday for PS4: 5.9 million
This year: 5.6 million

US:
November 2017: 1,65M (holiday counts only BF week but it's probably +75% of this month's sales)
December 2017: 1.08M

November 2018: 1.48M
December 2018: ?

Europe had some promotion in December while US didn't have one, so it is very likely much less than 1 million in December.
 
legend166

legend166

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Oct 25, 2017
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So does Sony's 5.6 million worldwide change any predictions? Obviously will need to do a lot of maths to try and figure it all out.

I think that's from the 19th of Nov to the 31st of December.
 
Benji

Benji

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legend166 said:
So does Sony's 5.6 million worldwide change any predictions? Obviously will need to do a lot of maths to try and figure it all out.

I think that's from the 19th of Nov to the 31st of December.
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Pretty much confirms what I was saying about PS4 under 1 million. Potentially much less so
 
legend166

legend166

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Oct 25, 2017
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Benji said:
Pretty much confirms what I was saying about PS4 under 1 million. Potentially much less so
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Yeah just saw the numbers down from last year. For what it's worth, looks like the PS4 did roughly 300k during that period in Japan (missing one week data). You're probably looking at what, at least 80% of November US sales happening from Nov 19th onwards? So let's say 1.3 million? So that's 4 million unaccounted for. If you give the PS4 1 million in December you're giving the US 41% of worldwide sales for the period which seems too high considering Sony's historical strength outside the US.
 
Benji

Benji

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legend166 said:
Yeah just saw the numbers down from last year. For what it's worth, looks like the PS4 did roughly 300k during that period in Japan (missing one week data). You're probably looking at what, at least 80% of November US sales happening from Nov 19th onwards? So let's say 1.3 million? So that's 4 million unaccounted for. If you give the PS4 1 million in December you're giving the US 41% of worldwide sales for the period which seems too high considering Sony's historical strength outside the US.
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Yep and we know PS4 was up from last year in UK and that's likely the case in other European markets as Sony had deals in Europe unlike the US

This basically confirms what i was saying about PS4 under 1 million for NPD
 
legend166

legend166

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The PS4's weakness in December is really intriguing for me. Obviously a large part of it sales being dragged forward into November, but it now looks like it could be down 50% from November -> December which is unprecedented. Obviously it's nothing to be alarmed about considering the already massive success of the platform, but I'm just interested in it for what it says about the demographics. Sony's basically given up focusing on any one but the 16-40 male demo who are much more likely to just buy the console whenever they want throughout the year, rather than getting it as a gift which is what you get in December.
 
joe_zazen

joe_zazen

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Oct 25, 2017
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@ legend166, Nintendo sucked some of the oxygen out of dec for the 2 other guys. When it comes to gifts, it is a zero sum game. Pokemon + Smash + portable, deadly combo.
 

Jiggy

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Oct 25, 2017
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legend166 said:
Sony's basically given up focusing on any one but the 16-40 male demo who are much more likely to just buy the console whenever they want throughout the year, rather than getting it as a gift which is what you get in December.
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They haven't released a lot of stuff aimed at kids this gen, but Spidey should have been big with a younger demo
 
Benji

Benji

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legend166 said:
The PS4's weakness in December is really intriguing for me. Obviously a large part of it sales being dragged forward into November, but it now looks like it could be down 50% from November -> December which is unprecedented. Obviously it's nothing to be alarmed about considering the already massive success of the platform, but I'm just interested in it for what it says about the demographics. Sony's basically given up focusing on any one but the 16-40 male demo who are much more likely to just buy the console whenever they want throughout the year, rather than getting it as a gift which is what you get in December.
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Main issue is they ran zero deals during the most price sensitive time of the year. The Xbox One had $100 off and the Switch annihilated in December

So yeah, it just wasnt as in demand this month
 
Astandahl

Astandahl

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Oct 28, 2017
9,007
legend166 said:
The PS4's weakness in December is really intriguing for me. Obviously a large part of it sales being dragged forward into November, but it now looks like it could be down 50% from November -> December which is unprecedented. Obviously it's nothing to be alarmed about considering the already massive success of the platform, but I'm just interested in it for what it says about the demographics. Sony's basically given up focusing on any one but the 16-40 male demo who are much more likely to just buy the console whenever they want throughout the year, rather than getting it as a gift which is what you get in December.
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Huge deals in November , no new games , no promotions during this month + heavy competition from Xbox which was sold for 249 and 199 are the reasons why PS4 will sell less in December. There is absolutely nothing strange about it.
 
Benji

Benji

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Btw this puts PS4s performance during the Holidays at its lowest since 2014
 
Benji

Benji

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Astandahl said:
Yep. Nothing unexpected ( for me at least ) after we knew no deals + heavy promotions from MS. Your insights confirmed everything as well.
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Yep. When I said there would be chaos and headlines this is one of the things I was referring to.

It being this low makes sense. But I expect some people to overreact to the news
 
Benji

Benji

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Welfare I need you to come in here and do some math using past holiday NA / global splits

Please and Thank You!
 
Limabean01

Limabean01

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donny2112 said:
I don't know if Microsoft is historically better than Sony in December, but December buyers are a very different consumer than most of the rest of the year. Sales (i.e. discounts) are king in November and that usually carries onto December. Therefore if MS has system discounts and Sony does not, it's going to weight the playing field much more in the last two months of the year more than any other month in the year.
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Yeah, all very true. I thought I remembered reading a comprehensive post by welfare comparing what each consoles' holidays:rest of year sales were, which showed Xbox one at least being significantly more concentrated around the holiday period. Could absolutely be wrong tho :)
 
N.Domixis

N.Domixis

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Benji said:
It still means a very weak December in the US

It's likely significantly under a million could be as low as 600k-700k
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THIS folks is why the gap never grows between it and xbox! They win all year only to lose most of the lead in the holidays. WHAT the fuck are you doing sony? They could be so far ahead had they competed since day one of this gen in NA>
 
Benji

Benji

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Limabean01 said:
Yeah, all very true. I thought I remembered reading a comprehensive post by welfare comparing what each consoles' holidays:rest of year sales were, which showed Xbox one at least being significantly more concentrated around the holiday period. Could absolutely be wrong tho :)
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Your correct

Xbox One is proportionally stronger especially in December
 
Welfare

Welfare

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Oct 26, 2017
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If I were a betting man and had confidence in my napkin math analysis, Sony's PR probably suggests less than 900K this December.

If US sales for the holiday were ~37% (which is where I'd estimate them to be for 2016 and 2017), that's 2.1M to spread between what was sold in the last 2 weeks of November and 4 weeks of December. Add like ~50K for that final December week.

I'd personally estimate US to be ~35% until we know what it sold in NPD. That would be ~2M (rounded up) and that would point to something in the 700-800K range.

That's probably a safe range for sales because if sales are in the 600K and below range OH BOY
 
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