Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of November and December. This is where comparing weekly averages is better than simple month to month because December is a 5 week month while November is only 4. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for December to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.
Code:
2012
Xbox 360 November: 1.259M / 4 = 314,750
Xbox 360 December: 1.4M / 5 = 280,000
Weekly average -11%
PS3 November: 762K / 4 = 190,500
PS3 December: 635K / 5 = 127,000
Weekly average -37%
3DS November: 540K / 4 = 135,000
3DS December: 1.25M / 5 = 250,000
Weekly average +85%
Notable Events in December
Xbox 360
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
PS3
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
3DS
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
Mario Kart 7 Blue XL bundle $199
Code:
2013
Xbox 360 November: 647K / 4 = 161,750
Xbox 360 December: 643K / 5 = 128,600
Weekly average -20%
PS3 November: 407K / 4 = 101,750
PS3 December: 299K / 5 = 59,800
Weekly average -41%
3DS November: 741K / 4 = 185,250
3DS December: 1.06M / 5 = 212,000
Weekly average +14%
Notable Events in December
Xbox 360
First full month of Xbox One launch
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
PS3
First full month of PS4 launch
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
3DS
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
Mario & Luigi: Dream Team Special Themed Silver + Black XL bundle $199
Code:
2014
Xbox One November: 1.231M / 4 = 307,750
Xbox One December: 1.297M / 5 = 259,400
Weekly average -16%
PS4 November: 831K / 4 = 207,750
PS4 December: 1.065M / 5 = 213,000
Weekly average +3%
3DS November: 515K / 4 = 128,750
3DS December: 810K / 5 = 162,000
Weekly average +26%
Xbox 360 November: 306K / 4 = 76,500
Xbox 360 December: 309K / 5 = 61,800
Weekly average -19%
PS3 November: 89K / 4 = 22,250
PS3 December: 174K / 5 = 34,800
Weekly average +56%
Notable Events in December
Xbox One
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
PS4
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
3DS
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
Xbox 360
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
PS3
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
Code:
2015
Xbox One November: 1.296M / 4 = 324,000
Xbox One December: 1.376M / 5 = 275,200
Weekly average -15%
PS4 November: 1.539M / 4 = 384,750
PS4 December: 1.582M / 5 = 316,400
Weekly average -18%
3DS November: 350K / 4 = 87,500
3DS December: 581K / 5 = 116,200
Weekly average +33%
Notable Events in December
Xbox One
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
$50 price drop - 500GB Bundles $299 / 1TB Bundles $349 / Kinect $449 December 9 - December 26
[3 weeks]
PS4
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
$50 price drop - 500GB model $299 December 6 - December 19 [2 weeks]
Call of Duty Black Ops 3 500GB Bundle $349 [3 weeks]
3DS
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
Code:
2016 / Apparently the November numbers are off so this comparison is off
Xbox One November: 1.007M / 4 = 251,750
Xbox One December: 1.511M / 5 = 302,200
Weekly average +20%
PS4 November: 1.112M / 4 = 278,000
PS4 December: 1.568M / 5 = 313,600
Weekly average +13%
3DS November: 556K / 4 = 139,000
3DS December: 593K / 5 = 118,600
Weekly average -15%
Notable Events in December
Xbox One
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
$50 price drop - 500GB Bundles $249 / 1TB Bundles $299 December 11 - December 24 [2 weeks]
Final Fantasy XV [5 weeks]
PS4
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
$50 price drop - 500GB model $249 December 11 - December 31 [3 weeks]
Final Fantasy XV Luna Black 1TB Bundle $449 [Gamestop] [5 weeks]
Call of Duty Infinite Warfare Deluxe Edition 500GB Bundle $299 [1 week]
Final Fantasy XV [5 weeks]
3DS
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
Code:
2017
Switch November: 775K / 4 = 193,750
Switch December: 1.5M / 5 = 300,000
Weekly average +55%
Xbox One November: 1.38M / 4 = 345,000
Xbox One December: 1.365M / 5 = 273,000
Weekly average -21%
PS4 November: 1.69M / 4 = 422,500
PS4 December: 1.08M / 5 = 216,000
Weekly average -49%
Notable Events in December
Switch
Cyber Monday / Christmas
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 [5 weeks]
Xbox One
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
Xbox One X Second Month
Month long continuation of Black Friday prices [5 weeks]
500GB bundles $199 December 17 - December 31 [2 weeks]
PUBG with every Xbox One X December 17 - December 31 [2 weeks]
PLAYERUNKNOWN'S Battlegrounds [3 weeks]
PS4
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
PS4 Pro $50 price drop December 10 - December 16 [1 week]
PS4 Slim 1TB $249 December 17 - December 24 [1 week]
Code:
2018
Switch November: 1.36M / 4 = 340,000
Switch December: 1.77M / 5 = 354,000
Weekly average +4%
Xbox One November: 1.34M / 4 = 335,000
Xbox One December: 920K / 5 = 184,000
Weekly average -45%
PS4 November: 1.48M / 4 = 370,000
PS4 December: 797K / 5 = 159,400
Weekly average -57%
Notable Events in December
Switch
Numerous Monthly Deals / Christmas
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate [5 weeks]
Xbox One
Numerous Monthly Deals / Christmas
Xbox One S $249 / Xbox One X $399 / Xbox One X Bundles $449 December 2 - 15
Xbox One S $199 / Xbox One X $399 December 16 - 25 *Walmart started this on the 14th
PS4
Christmas
Code:
2019 November Weekly Averages * Using #1 Predictor
Switch: 1.395M / 4 = 348,750
PS4: 1.09M / 4 = 272,500
Xbox One: 875K / 4 = 218,750
Notable Events in December
Switch
Numerous Monthly Deals/ Cyber Monday / Christmas
Console + $30 gift card [December 15 - December 21]
Xbox One
Numerous Monthly Deals / Cyber Monday / Christmas
Xbox One S All-Digital Edition $199 / Xbox One S $249 [December 8 - December 25]
Xbox One S All-Digital Edition $149 [December 15 - December 25]
Xbox One X $349 [December 8 - January 4]
PS4
Numerous Monthly Deals/ Cyber Monday / Christmas
PS4 Slim The Last of Us Remastered + God of War + Horizon Zero Dawn Complete Edition Bundle $249
[December 15 - December 28]
Notes
The biggest month of the year in terms of absolute sales. However, December has fallen from November in terms of weekly average as sales concentrate more towards Black Friday in recent years (if you're not Nintendo). December usually has three massive sales days, Cyber Monday (the Monday after Thanksgiving), Green Monday (Smaller Cyber Monday, the second Monday of December) and Super Saturday (Saturday before Christmas). After Super Saturday, holiday spending is over, so there are 4 weeks of holiday sales and 1 post holiday week.
Xbox
The Xbox One sees standard weekly average drops, similar to the Xbox 360, in 2014, 2015, and 2017. 2018 had the largest drop thanks to Cyber Monday week being in the November tracking. 2016 actually saw the only increase during the years covered. This could be because November was an incredibly weak month in terms of software moving consoles and the One S hitting $249.
Xbox One this December was somewhat weird on price. Xbox One X went down to $349 like on Black Friday, but the One S consoles only went down $50 instead of $100. Then after a week they randomly drop the One SAD to $149, so by Super Saturday the pricing was $149/$249/$349.
We should see a more normal December drop this year compared to the abnormal December 2018 result.
Playstation
PS4 in 2014 actually saw a small increase of 3%, but in 2015 had a drop of 18% despite dropping the price $50 for 2 weeks thanks to hardware bundle launches in November. 2016 also saw another increase thanks to the PS4 slim which I think sold much more for the same reason as the Xbox One. Weak November leading to a much better December because of weak software launches and price cuts pushing sales. 2017 saw a massive decrease due to weak price promotions and a comparison to the PS4's highest ever November. As I predicted last year, December 2018 had the worst weekly average drop thanks not only to different tracking period, but the PS4 had absolutely no deals the whole month.
2019 has a $249 drop on the 3 game holiday bundle, and the last year that had a similar deal was back in 2017.
Nintendo
Merry Switchmas and have a great Newtendo Year.
The 3DS averages a rise of +27% with the only drop being -15% (2016) thanks to supply constraints, and the largest rise being +85% (2012).
Nintendo does massive numbers in December. Their products are Christmas gift fodder, essentially. Always a reliable product for the younger demographic.
Nintendo typically see December double November in total sales or around there and it isn't limited to handhelds. Even the Wii U saw these increases.
Switch had a +93% MOM increase in December 2017 with a weekly average increase of +55%, and that was just purely on the selling power of the Switch as a product and evergreen software. 2018 had a more modest +30% MOM, but this would have been higher had Cyber Monday week been in the December tracking like normal. It was also the highest December result since 2010.
2019 doesn't have a massive launch in December like Smash Ultimate in 2018, but Switch has a $199 Lite model as well as continued sales Pokemon.
Recap
December usually increases in total sales from November, but weekly averages see a decrease, unless you are Nintendo.
The biggest December ever recorded in the 7th gen was the Wii with 3,810,000 back in 2009. Second biggest? Wii again with 2,360,000 back in 2010.
The biggest December ever recorded in the 8th gen was the Switch with 1,770,000 in 2018. Second biggest? PS4 with 1,582,000 in 2015.
