Yep, that's right. I always forget NPD lists are revenue based. Sony games drop in price like a rock.
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December 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 14th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Well if you think about it, those lists are based on dollar sales, right? Sony first party games tend to go on deep sales after a year or two. Nothing like Nintendo games selling at full price for years
Nvm I see this gas already been addressed lol
Not even a year or two. Maybe 3 months you can get it for less than half original price.
oh yeah, that's true as well. My PS4 was bundled with TLoU Remastered and I'm pretty sure that specific bundle was on store shelves for at least a year.
You are?
The game was just the #13 best selling game of 2013
You don't make the top 20 list if you arent #1 or have super high legs.
Did I win? I bet I won. Here's how many points I predict I won:
[DSX] 45K
[BiPu] 32K
[RYNG] 27K
[DSX] 45K
[BiPu] 32K
[RYNG] 27K
I'm just trying to make jokes to bump this thread in the hope that we get results soon. But in this fictional joke world, you got 3rd place. Congrats.
Did we ever get confirmation whether Switch was up YoY in December, or if the statement referred to 2018 vs 2019?
"Hardware
Hardware spending in December 2019 declined 17 percent when compared to a year ago, to $973 million. Annual hardware spending fell 22 percent, to $3.9 billion. Nintendo Switch gains could not offset declines across other platforms."
This seems to state Nintendo Switch had gains YoY
you mean double digits in % increase of units?
If Xbox/ps/3ds sales were down 17% YoY despite Switch's increase YoY, doesn't that mean Switch sales were up 17%+ this last Dec? (Or am I completely reading it wrong lol)
Even accounting for main Switch price and this being revenue based, the unit increase has to at least be in double digits
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It's not clear as it can be read like:
1.) "Hardware spending in December 2019 declined 17 percent when compared to a year ago, Nintendo Switch gains could not offset declines across other platforms." ->Switch December gains
or
2.) "Annual hardware spending fell 22 percent, Nintendo Switch gains could not offset declines across other platforms." ->Switch yearly gains.
And regarding your 2nd point: Total spending declined 17% that includes spending on ALL platforms including Switch, even if Switch was up YoY, so no, you can't extrapolate the Switch gains (if there were any) from that. It just means that 17% less money was spent on hardware all in all. Switch could be flat, up or down from this alone we can never know. We can only guess from the nearest prediction and maybe financial results or PR.
Good point on the first part, it totally could be YoY gains for the year and not Dec if you read it a certain way...hmm
On the second part, yea I see what you are saying...I knew i felt off on the math :P
So Switch could have increased only 5% in sales in Dec, offsetting what would have been an overall 22% loss assuming Switch was flat...I get it.
I guess a a lot depends also on Lite ratio sales, since this is a revenue increase. 3 Lite sales this December equals 2 Switch sales last December...so the % revenue increase means an even higher unit increase.
But yea, might as well wait a week and find out some real numbers!
Yea, it's vague enough that it can be taken different ways and I had hoped we received clarification on which way that was meant to be taken.
Just to attempt to test my math skills again haha:
- Let's assume Switch sales are perfectly flat for Dec 2019 in the US YoY
also
- Lets assume the ratio of Main Switch/Lite Switch sales is 2:1 (generally the sales trend we see)
knowing
1.77 million Switches were sold Dec 2018 in the US
Keeping it simple and multiplying that by $300 that gives us ~$531 million in Switch hardware revenue for Dec 2018
therefore
if Switch revenue was completely flat and the ratio is 2:1 that gives us:
~663,750 Lite units
~1,327,500 Main units
(663,750 x $200 + 1,327,500 x $300 = $531 million)
~1,991,250 million Switch units sold which would be a ~12% increase from 1.77 million
So
Even if sales are completely flat AND the Lite represents at least 30% of Switch sales...we see a double digit % increase in units sold.
right? 😬
- Let's assume Switch sales are perfectly flat for Dec 2019 in the US YoY
also
- Lets assume the ratio of Main Switch/Lite Switch sales is 2:1 (generally the sales trend we see)
knowing
1.77 million Switches were sold Dec 2018 in the US
Keeping it simple and multiplying that by $300 that gives us ~$531 million in Switch hardware revenue for Dec 2018
therefore
if Switch revenue was completely flat and the ratio is 2:1 that gives us:
~663,750 Lite units
~1,327,500 Main units
(663,750 x $200 + 1,327,500 x $300 = $531 million)
~1,991,250 million Switch units sold which would be a ~12% increase from 1.77 million
So
Even if sales are completely flat AND the Lite represents at least 30% of Switch sales...we see a double digit % increase in units sold.
right? 😬
The 2:1 Switch Lite/OG ratio has only been seen in Japan. We don't know if it is the case everywhere else (I believe Spain saw a weaker Lite share than that).
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OP
OP
Since not all the results are public, no numerical results are shown here. Also, the rankings are just a counter, so if two users are tied, it is not reflected in these results. To prevent backing out the numbers, only the monthly results for the top 3 predictors are shown. Annual results are still full results, though.
NPD Prediction Results - December 2019
Units
1. Ryng
2. WestEgg
3. Bitch Pudding
Points
Congratulations, Ryng for the month in Units and WestEgg for the month in Points! And a big CONGRATS to Lelouch0612 for taking the top spot in 2019!! \(^o^)/
NPD Prediction Results - December 2019
Units
1. Ryng
2. WestEgg
3. Bitch Pudding
Points
Code:
December 2019 Overall 2019 Top (10/12)
01. WestEgg ---.-- Lelouch0612 ---.--
02. donny2112 ---.-- Kaveri ---.--
03. Zorg1000 ---.-- Myriotes ---.--
04. ---.-- Ryng ---.--
05. ---.-- CosmicBolt ---.--
06. ---.-- Welfare ---.--
07. ---.-- Corporate Clown ---.--
08. ---.-- gargles ---.--
09. ---.-- Jeean ---.--
10. ---.-- donny2112 ---.--
11. ---.-- TurnoftheCentury ---.--
12. ---.-- Andromeda ---.--
13. ---.-- James ---.--
14. ---.-- Zedark ---.--
15. ---.-- Sterok ---.--
16. ---.-- score01 ---.--
17. ---.-- Bitch Pudding ---.--
18. ---.-- jroc74 ---.--
19. ---.-- cakely ---.--
20. ---.-- pitseleh ---.--
21. ---.-- KillerMan91 ---.--
22. ---.-- slavesnyder ---.--
23. ---.-- Hammer24 ---.--
24. ---.-- WestEgg ---.--
25. ---.-- Darth Smurf X ---.--
26. ---.-- El Manco ---.--
27. ---.-- Astrogamer ---.--
28. ---.-- Elandyll ---.--
29. ---.-- julian ---.--
30. ---.-- Pachter ---.--
31. ---.-- ThatRandomCliff ---.--
32. ---.-- Moltres006 ---.--
33. ---.-- IronTed ---.--
34. ---.-- kyo2004 ---.--
35. ---.-- Limabean01 ---.--
36. ---.-- Slarvax ---.--
37. ---.-- DeuceGamer ---.--
38. ---.-- plusaflag ---.--
39. ---.-- wilmbreak ---.--
40. ---.-- SinCItyAssassin ---.--
41. ---.-- GamingCJ ---.--
42. ---.-- Doctor Mario ---.--
43. ---.-- Peek-a-boo! ---.--
44. ---.-- useyourloaf ---.--
45. ---.-- MANUELF ---.--
46. ---.-- Keith Stat ---.--
47. ---.-- 404LinkNotFound ---.--
48. ---.-- brykuhn91 ---.--
49. ---.-- Mercenary09 ---.--
50. ---.-- Quintus ---.--Congratulations, Ryng for the month in Units and WestEgg for the month in Points! And a big CONGRATS to Lelouch0612 for taking the top spot in 2019!! \(^o^)/
OP
OP
#1 predictor, for reference, and a good poster case for why you should not pick two systems to tie (1st in Units, but not in Top 3 in Points, which takes system order into consideration). :P
------
Since not all the results are public, this is a "Just for Fun" ranking. The way it works is that the #1 predictor for the month using the actual results is assumed to be 100% correct, and everyone else is measured accordingly. These results are not official and not used in the annual rankings. Since the real results can't be shown, these are a substitute to be used "Just for Fun." (^_^)
ResetERA "Just for Fun" Prediction Results - December 2019
Note: Uses #1 predictor as "truth" and measures everyone else relative to them.
1. Ryng - 0
2. Bitch Pudding - 149,000
3. GamingCJ - 150,000
3. Lelouch0612 - 150,000
3. jroc74 - 150,000
6. Sterok - 160,000
7. score01 - 180,000
8. Welfare - 194,000
9. TurnoftheCentury - 200,000
9. WestEgg - 200,000
11. Myriotes - 217,000
12. James - 225,000
13. julian - 236,000
14. donny2112 - 262,000
15. Jeean - 270,000
16. oracion - 280,000
17. gargles - 290,000
18. Zorg1000 - 300,000
18. slavesnyder - 300,000
20. El Manco - 326,000
21. Hammer24 - 340,000
22. ThatRandomCliff - 348,000
23. KillerMan91 - 350,000
24. Darth Smurf X - 351,000
25. Andromeda - 367,000
26. Tialo - 370,000
27. DeuceGamer - 380,000
28. Xbro - 385,000
29. Peek-a-boo! - 390,000
30. Corporate Clown - 400,000
30. Zedark - 400,000
32. Elandyll - 420,000
33. IronTed - 430,000
33. pitseleh - 430,000
35. CosmicBolt - 473,000
36. Fintendo - 480,000
36. UmbriaPauly - 480,000
38. Kaveri - 533,000
39. gaffertape - 550,000
40. SinCItyAssassin - 560,000
41. cakely - 591,000
42. Pachter - 700,000
43. Astrogamer - 900,000
44. The One Who Knocks - 1,000,000
The top 3 for December have Switch at 2x 2050k and 1x 2100k, so 2000k+ seems plausible.
PS4 top 3 estimates are 775k-900k (don't quite remember the upper estimate).
PS4 top 3 estimates are 775k-900k (don't quite remember the upper estimate).
That would be roughly:
Switch 2035k
XB1 855k
PS4 645k
I'm gonna do my anaylsis on the predictions to see if the possible ranges line up with that.
(Edited due to error in XB1 calculation)
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Perfect, I was starting to do that you were definitely quicker !
I am really surprised that the PS4 was down that much tho.
Considering only prediction results, I get:
XB1: min = 849500, max = 862500
PS4: min = 0, max = 788000
NSW: min = 2000500, max = 2063000
Also, because I had plenty of DMs here are November and October growth figures:
November total units: -16% yoy
- Switch +5%
- PS4 -15%
- Xbox -37%
Believe some of the "weaker" performance across the board driven by calendar shift of Cyber monday from November to December.
October total units: -31% yoy
- Switch +21%
- PS4 -58%
- Xbox -49%
I don't have full-year figures.
November total units: -16% yoy
- Switch +5%
- PS4 -15%
- Xbox -37%
Believe some of the "weaker" performance across the board driven by calendar shift of Cyber monday from November to December.
October total units: -31% yoy
- Switch +21%
- PS4 -58%
- Xbox -49%
I don't have full-year figures.
Not perfect, I made a mistake! For some reason I entered XB1's Nov 2019 estimate instead of Dec 2018 when calculating so XB1 is actually about 855k, I edited my post.
I noticed my mistake because I got 850k<XB1<900k in my analysis so far, so its definitely lining up.
I second this, any info is appreciated.
Surprised that I underestimated the Switch (seems like I've had a habit of overestimation). Sad how last year's thread exploded over the possibility of 2 million and now that it's happened the thread is tiny.
Also surprised at how low the PS4 is. Worst Dec ever, and the XBO manages to outsell it for what is probably the last time ever.
The Switch handidly outsold both combined, and based on estimates + leaked numbers Switch YTD is slightly behind the combined PS4/XBO number.
Yep you're right I'm getting the same, see above I edited my post.
Wow thanks for all this, NPD prediction threads have some life again!
Lol yeah, I was about to quote you about it, but you fixed it in time :). But your analysis is always appreciated.
For Nov I got
NSW: 1428k
PS4: 1258k
XBO: 844k
Oct
NSW: 309k
PS4: 144k
XBO: 108k
Looking back at the prediction threads, some of my 2018 numbers seem to be slightly off, so I've corrected them.
Yep I calculated the same, also went back and checked and these all lie in the calculated ranges from the predictions (except October we had Switch 310-318 but that's probably just a rounding error) so looks good.
Wow, thanks for the numbers er1ksson and Donny!
Didn't we get an estimate for Jan-Nov of 4.6M for Switch? This would put yearly total at 6.6M approximately.
Didn't we get an estimate for Jan-Nov of 4.6M for Switch? This would put yearly total at 6.6M approximately.
With most of the year's numbers still estimated from predictions I have these totals for 2019:
Switch 6.50M (+15% YoY)
PS4 3.87M (-27% YoY)
XB1 3.05M (-30% YoY)
Edit: updated with later leaks
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It seems like Switch is up 2M in 2019 ytd based on US and JP alone?
So an excellent year and December for Switch. All that hype over the 2M December last year and this year we finally got it, truly a fantastic achievement. 6.53M (est.) is the biggest year of this generation, beating PS4's excellent 2015 record by about 800k. Switch is truly flying.
I am shocked at how low PS4 is, what an awful December considering Sony did a $50 discount this year. November was much better than expected though so I guess it balances out. Overall a good year for PS4 all things considered, -28% YoY is about expected.
XB1 had a very strong December, actually up over November for the first time since 2016. November was very poor, so December makes up for it. Kind of the reverse of PS4's holiday. Good(ish) year for Xb1 as well with a similar YoY decline although its less impressive considering its raw numbers are lower.
I am shocked at how low PS4 is, what an awful December considering Sony did a $50 discount this year. November was much better than expected though so I guess it balances out. Overall a good year for PS4 all things considered, -28% YoY is about expected.
XB1 had a very strong December, actually up over November for the first time since 2016. November was very poor, so December makes up for it. Kind of the reverse of PS4's holiday. Good(ish) year for Xb1 as well with a similar YoY decline although its less impressive considering its raw numbers are lower.
Yep, seems like it. US and Japan should account for 60%-65% of the Switch audience, so there's another large segment for which growth is expected as well, so could be closer to 2.5M-3M units for worldwide I think.
Yeah the Oct/Nov ranges you and James calculated are close to reality, which is good to have as a fallback.
Also glad we can conclude that Cyber Monday is significant. But PS4/XBO really disappointed. Their shift to Nov is very pronounced.
I got similar results as well. Funny how close the HD Twins trended in the end, I recall a lot of contention in these threads earlier this year for making that observation. Switch was also 370k away from outselling both combined.
Yep James definitely does some good work but its always so much better to have real results. Like for November all we could tell was PS4>1075k and I presumed it wouldn't be too far above that but it ended up being 180k over, so our estimated number for that was pretty poor. So thank you very much to er1ksson for the more accurate numbers
'Twins' is definitely an apt word to use, its pretty remarkable how closely they've trended in sales in the US their whole lives, I guess its due to them both have a very normal sales trajectory.