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December 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 14th

Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
2019 will be a tough year to beat for the Switch in 2020.

Mat thinks the Switch could still be on top of the hardware space into 2022.

We know so little right now about the line-up to have a clear idea about this year's sales but 5.5m+ should be a given. Depending on several other factors, another 6m+ year is possible.
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,658
Lelouch0612 said:
2019 will be a tough year to beat for the Switch in 2020.

Mat thinks the Switch could still be on top of the hardware space into 2022.

We know so little right now about the line-up to have a clear idea about this year's sales but 5.5m+ should be a given. Depending on several other factors, another 6m+ year is possible.
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Price cuts and more revisions.
 

Deleted member 31092

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Nov 5, 2017
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NPD threads when numbers are back

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Xevross

Xevross

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,048
SilverX said:
So what are the US totals of all 3 LTD?
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Approx.

PS4 32.25M
XB1 27.53M
NSW 17.01M

Switch is quite clearly trending ahead of XB1 LTD now by about 3M, however its pretty close with PS4 still. Best comparison comes at the end of March.

Edit: updated thanks to Jun-Sept leaks
 
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IronTed

IronTed

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jun 6, 2019
1,435
Xevross said:
Yep James definitely does some good work but its always so much better to have real results. Like for November all we could tell was PS4>1075k and I presumed it wouldn't be too far above that but it ended up being 180k over, so our estimated number for that was pretty poor. So thank you very much to er1ksson for the more accurate numbers

'Twins' is definitely an apt word to use, its pretty remarkable how closely they've trended in sales in the US their whole lives, I guess its due to them both have a very normal sales trajectory.
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Yeah Nov was rough, and a reminder that the ranges can only be as good as the predictions they're calculated from.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,912
Switch
October: 309,000
November: 1,428,000
December: 2,036,000

PS4
October: 144,000
November: 1,258,000
December: 646,000

XB1
October: 108,000
November: 844,000
December: 856,000

Updated* YTD 2019 Rounded to the nearest 10K

NSW: 6.5M
PS4: 3.87M
XB1: 3.05M

LTD:
PS4: 32.23M
XB1: 27.51M
NSW: 17.01M
 
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klanar

Member
Jun 9, 2018
398
Xevross said:
Approx.

PS4 32.23M
XB1 27.54M
NSW 17.04M

Switch is quite clearly trending ahead of XB1 LTD now by about 3M, however its pretty close with PS4 still. Best comparison comes at the end of March.
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That's a weird total for switch, I remember Nintendo gave PR for NA numbers in october surpassing 15M.
edit: oops, the PR is about NA and that 17M is for US!
 
Zedark

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
PS4 December looks really weak, XB1 looks as expected for that month imo. For the year, the 30% drop is the expected imo with 2018 being really strong due to Fortnite.

Nice year for Switch with a 6.5M total, best number since 2011 (7.3M for XB360). Being up 15% in December is also impressive considering Smash launched in December past year, and that was a 3.5M seller in that month alone.
 
Welfare

Welfare

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Oct 26, 2017
5,912
PS4 and XB1 are dead in 2020 going off those Q4 numbers.

COD can't even push a month above 150K at this point.

~600K in December is abysmal and is PS3 tier at this point.

Only PS4 November looks good but in the context of full holiday sales, it's only an average of 952K between November and December, while the XB1 is at 850K average.
 
Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Welfare said:
PS4 and XB1 are dead in 2020 going off those Q4 numbers.

COD can't even push a month above 150K at this point.

~600K in December is abysmal and is PS3 tier at this point.

Only PS4 November looks good but in the context of full holiday sales, it's only an average of 952K between November and December, while the XB1 is at 850K average.
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These PS4 December sales make no sense to me. They had no deal last year, had the 249$ bundle this year + CM and were still down 17% YoY (more than the XB1)
 

Pokémon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,679
Zedark said:
PS4 December looks really weak, XB1 looks as expected for that month imo. For the year, the 30% drop is the expected imo with 2018 being really strong due to Fortnite.

Nice year for Switch with a 6.5M total, best number since 2011 (7.3M for XB360). Being up 15% in December is also impressive considering Smash launched in December past year, and that was a 3.5M seller in that month alone.
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On the other hand this year's December had Cyber Monday included but I have to admit that I don't know how big Cyber Monday is for sales.
 

Dolorean

Member
Sep 20, 2019
134
June:
Total: 24%
Switch +2% (up +18% YTD at this point)
PS4: -41%
Xbox: -37%

July:
Total: -10%
Switch: -4%
PS4: -1%
Xbox: -28%

August:
Total: -6%
Switch: +17%
PS4: +1%
Xbox: -44%

September:
Total: -10%
Switch: +66%
PS4: -53%
Xbox: -20%

Could somebody get me the full Q3 estimate for Switch vs. last year ? Would be appreciated (I don't have the individual unit #s)
 

Tialo

Member
Dec 4, 2019
1,064
Thank you very much for this information.

These are definetly great sales for Switch, either especially in december and for 2019 in general. This will surely be hard to beat in 2020.
 
Welfare

Welfare

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Oct 26, 2017
5,912
Lelouch0612 said:
These PS4 December sales make no sense to me. They had no deal last year, had the 249$ bundle this year + CM and were still down 17% YoY (more than the XB1)
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Looks like PS4 is even more concentrated in November thanks to the $199 bundle.

XB1 manages to remain consistent throughout November and December, similar to the average holiday performance.

er1ksson said:
June:
Total: 24%
Switch +2% (up +18% YTD at this point)
PS4: -41%
Xbox: -37%

July:
Total: -10%
Switch: -4%
PS4: -1%
Xbox: -28%

August:
Total: -6%
Switch: +17%
PS4: +1%
Xbox: -44%

September:
Total: -10%
Switch: +66%
PS4: -53%
Xbox: -20%

Could somebody get me the full Q3 estimate for Switch vs. last year ? Would be appreciated (I don't have the individual unit #s)
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Q3 as in July-September?

NSW 2018: 728K
NSW 2019: 925K (+27%)

NSW
June: 329K
July: 252K
August: 241K
September: 432K

PS4
June: 222K
July: 185K
August: 199K
September: 200K

XB1
June: 161K
July: 109K
August: 89K
September: 140K
 
Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Welfare said:
Looks like PS4 is even more concentrated in November thanks to the $199 bundle.

XB1 manages to remain consistent throughout November and December, similar to the average holiday performance.
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Maybe the fact that they didn't have any December deal last year created the expectation that they won't have any this year too and moved a lot of December purchase into November.
 
Welfare

Welfare

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So thanks to er1ksson we managed to get all of 2019. I knew we wouldn't go with incomplete data for too long :)

Now with even more accurate numbers

YTD 2019 Rounded to the nearest 10K

NSW: 6.5M
PS4: 3.87M
XB1: 3.05M

LTD:
PS4: 32.23M
XB1: 27.51M
NSW: 17.01M
 

Pokémon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,679
Welfare said:
So thanks to er1ksson we managed to get all of 2019. I knew we wouldn't go with incomplete data for too long :)

Now with even more accurate numbers

YTD 2019 Rounded to the nearest 10K

NSW: 6.5M
PS4: 3.87M
XB1: 3.05M

LTD:
PS4: 32.23M
XB1: 27.51M
NSW: 17.01M
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Do you have the YTD 2018 numbers handy?
 
Welfare

Welfare

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Oct 26, 2017
5,912
Lelouch0612 said:
Maybe the fact that they didn't have any December deal last year created the expectation that they won't have any this year too and moved a lot of December purchase into November.
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Or PS4 can't move at $249 anymore.

Either way, that points to demand falling pretty hard for current gen at this rate. Xbox 360 went from selling 1.26M and 1.4M in Nov+Dec 2012 to selling ~645K in both Nov+Dec 2013. PS3 also fell by a similar -50% that holiday.

2020 won't be great if your name isn't Switch.
 
Bosch

Bosch

Banned
May 15, 2019
3,680
Welfare said:
So thanks to er1ksson we managed to get all of 2019. I knew we wouldn't go with incomplete data for too long :)

Now with even more accurate numbers

YTD 2019 Rounded to the nearest 10K

NSW: 6.5M
PS4: 3.87M
XB1: 3.05M

LTD:
PS4: 32.23M
XB1: 27.51M
NSW: 17.01M
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this put Xbox ONE worldwide around 45 million. Like I said the console will not reach 50 million end of life.
 
Welfare

Welfare

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Oct 26, 2017
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Bosch said:
this put Xbox ONE worldwide around 45 million. Like I said the console will not reach 50 million end of life.
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XB1 is above 45M at this point. Shipments will cross 50M this year if they haven't already, sell through this year or at worst early next year.

Even if it were at exactly 45M at the end of 2019, it would still hit 50M. It'll sell ~2M this year in the US, and then another ~1M after 2021. Another ~2M worldwide between 2020 and EOL is very doable.
 
OP
OP

donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
It's kind of a wide net, but more mainstream/family-friendly systems tend to sell more in December when families are looking for that last minute Christmas gift. The hardcore tend to be more BF focused. Mainstream buyers may not pay attention as much in November, then. Nintendo has kept a lot of that historic Dec > Nov trend due to this, and there's an argument to be made that XB1 is the more family-friendly system compared to PS4 due to Minecraft being a big push on it. Maybe PS has drained almost all the mainstream/non-hardcore buyers at > $199, even with 3 games?
 
Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Welfare said:
Or PS4 can't move at $249 anymore.

Either way, that points to demand falling pretty hard for current gen at this rate. Xbox 360 went from selling 1.26M and 1.4M in Nov+Dec 2012 to selling ~645K in both Nov+Dec 2013. PS3 also fell by a similar -50% that holiday.

2020 won't be great if your name isn't Switch.
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Seems like Sony is keeping the 249$ bundle available

Might be leftover stock or they intend to keep it as their main SKU.
 
Bosch

Bosch

Banned
May 15, 2019
3,680
Welfare said:
XB1 is above 45M at this point. Shipments will cross 50M this year if they haven't already, sell through this year or at worst early next year.

Even if it were at exactly 45M at the end of 2019, it would still hit 50M. It'll sell ~2M this year in the US, and then another ~1M after 2021. Another ~2M worldwide between 2020 and EOL is very doable.
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your are right. probably will en around that 50 million.
 
Welfare

Welfare

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Oct 26, 2017
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donny2112 said:
It's kind of a wide net, but more mainstream/family-friendly systems tend to sell more in December when families are looking for that last minute Christmas gift. The hardcore tend to be more BF focused. Mainstream buyers may not pay attention as much in November, then. Nintendo has kept a lot of that historic Dec > Nov trend due to this, and there's an argument to be made that XB1 is the more family-friendly system compared to PS4 due to Minecraft being a big push on it. Maybe PS has drained almost all the mainstream/non-hardcore buyers at > $199, even with 3 games?
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XB1 also had the Star Wars bundle, and the $149 SAD. Those two would help big with the casual market.

Lelouch0612 said:
Seems like Sony is keeping the 249$ bundle available

Might be leftover stock or they intend to keep it as their main SKU.
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That's just Amazon being Amazon. The standard SKU looks to be the standalone one at $299 again.
 
Zorg1000

Zorg1000

Banned
Jul 22, 2019
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donny2112 said:
It's kind of a wide net, but more mainstream/family-friendly systems tend to sell more in December when families are looking for that last minute Christmas gift. The hardcore tend to be more BF focused. Mainstream buyers may not pay attention as much in November, then. Nintendo has kept a lot of that historic Dec > Nov trend due to this, and there's an argument to be made that XB1 is the more family-friendly system compared to PS4 due to Minecraft being a big push on it. Maybe PS has drained almost all the mainstream/non-hardcore buyers at > $199, even with 3 games?
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I'm sure demographics play a part but I also think a major reason is simply from Sony & Microsoft having massive deals in Nov while Nintendo really doesnt.
 
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