Democratic Presidential Primary |February OT| It Can't be Worse than Iowa, Right? (Discussion Guidelines in OP)

Who's Going to Win South Carolina?

  • Joe Biden

    Votes: 398 34.8%
  • Bernie Sanders

    Votes: 710 62.1%
  • Elizabeth Warren

    Votes: 16 1.4%
  • Pete Buttigieg

    Votes: 4 0.3%
  • THE KLOBBERER

    Votes: 11 1.0%
  • Tom Steyer

    Votes: 5 0.4%

  • Total voters
    1,144
  • This poll will close: .
OP and Thread Guidelines New

Poodlestrike

It's salt.
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
6,555
Greetings, users and lurkers of Era, to our first official 2020 Democratic Primaries & Caucuses OT! As you may know, the long national nightmare known as the 2020 Democratic Primary is coming to a head next month as ballots are cast in primaries and sweaty partisans take to caucuses to scream at each other in person instead of online. In this thread, we’ll have a short summary on each contest in February, some advice for people looking to participate, and some guidelines for discussion.

Iowa Caucuses

The first in the nation since the parties lengthened the process in 1972 (thanks, assholes), the Iowa Caucuses are held on February 3rd. Though long held as a key state, the Iowa caucuses have only predicted the nominee 43% of the time. So if your fave doesn’t make it, don’t abandon hope: they’ve still got better-than-coinflip odds.

Unlike a primary, a caucus is a group process. Participants show up to a precinct in person and sort themselves into groups for each candidate on the ballot. The doors are closed to further participants, and a count is taken. If a candidate’s supporters make up less than 15% of all people present, that group is disbanded, and their supporters are either asked to join another group or leave in what’s called the realignment - this is the part that generally involves a fair bit of shouting (but it’s nice shouting, I’m told), as the remaining groups attempt to win over the newly-unaligned caucusgoers to their side. This process can repeat multiple times until all <15% candidates are eliminated and a final count is taken, with precinct delegates being allocated proportionally. Mostly. There's also the state delegate equivalents which can shift things a couple of points in one direction or another and is mostly too stupid to talk about.

The Iowa caucuses have been the subject of quite a bit of debate lately. There are those that say that having the first state be extremely white and rural biases the process, and that caucuses themselves are undemocratic due to the way the high time requirements and sometimes trying atmosphere make it difficult for underprivileged people to participate. Proponents say that Iowa has developed a unique culture of retail politics that makes it an excellent trial-by-fire first state. That’s unlikely to be settled on an internet forum, but by all means, have at it.

Check here to check in early and find your precinct. If you’re registered to vote in Iowa but not currently living there, there’s a number of satellite precincts as well!

If you want to participate but you’re not sure what the requirements are, they’re fairly straightforward: you must be a resident of the precinct you’re attempting to caucus at, you must be a registered member of the Democratic party, and you must be an eligible registered voter. If neither of the latter two apply to you, no worries - show up early, and you can register both as a voter and as a Democrat right on site. Eligibility for the former can be determined by checking here. Remember, this is a multi-hour process, and the doors shut at 7PM sharp, so make sure you have the time to get there early and stay.

New Hampshire Primaries

Next - New Hampshire! Like Iowa, but instead of caucuses, they have primaries, and instead of corn syrup, they’ve got maple. Mmm. Taking place on February 11 this year, the New Hampshire primaries first rose in importance in 1952, and successfully predicted the president (if not the party nominee) every year from then until 1988. Similar to Iowa, NH has a very “retail politics” vibe, but unlike Iowa, the candidates don’t get to hang out there for months on end, following the first contest as it does by only a week (okay, 8 days). This results in an absolutely hectic period of on-the-ground campaigning as candidates furiously shove pancakes into their mouths and sing muffled praise for the various 10,000 districts of the NH State Legislature in an effort to shore up support with key figures they previously hadn’t had the time to extensively court.

NH frankly hasn’t been subject to the same level of scrutiny as Iowa, but it probably should be. Like Iowa, it’s very rural, and very white - not at all representative of the country as a whole. But like Iowa, there’s a certain amount of pride (and perhaps exasperation) in the way that every 4 years candidates for president show up in their living rooms, dining rooms, and back decks peering in the window and checking to see if they’re really not home.

Primaries are much simpler than Caucuses: show up, be registered, vote. New Hampshire has semi-open primaries, so undeclared voters can vote in either primary, but voters with declared party affiliation can only vote in their own. If you’re a registered republican but want in on the primary, it may be too late. Want to know where to vote? Check here. Not sure if you’re registered? No worries - according to the Secretary of State’s office, you can register to vote on election day at your polling place. The requirements are outlined here.

As an aside, NH Dem party: get your shit together - I had to go trawling the SoS office's site directly to find that. Smh.

Nevada Caucuses

VIVA CLARK COUNTY! The Nevada caucuses take place on February 22, and represent basically the first opportunity for nonwhite people to weigh in. Nevada doesn’t have the same kind of weight that Iowa and NH does, sadly (some would say… curiously). At one point, Nevada had regular primaries, but switched over to caucuses in 2008 in an effort to boost electoral relevance - caucuses require far more on-the-ground organizing time and effort thean primaries. They also moved up to be before Super Tuesday, which has to help.

This year, the party is attempting something of a hybrid system. There’s an early voting period from February 15-February 18, with the caucuses themselves taking place the following Saturday the 22nd. The votes from the early voting will be sent to the related caucus precinct and totaled with the in-person votes. Unlike Iowa, nonviable candidates’ supporters are not released and allowed to join their second choice - less than 15% and they’re just out. The doors open at 10AM PT and caucuses are called to order at noon, so make sure to get there on time if you’re going in person.

Nevada’s actual delegate allocation system is a mess that I won’t get into, but if you want more details (including voter registration, precinct and early voting locations, training, volunteer opportunities, and more) check out this tasteful and finely crafted link. See, NH? Other states did it. It’s not just Iowa.

South Carolina Primaries

Finally, our last contest of February! The South Carolina primary has been the first in the south since its inception in 1980, and in 2008 established an important marker as the first Democratic primary contest of the cycle with a majority black electorate. As such, it’s taken on an important role as a signal flag. Candidates that fail to hit 15% in SC are unlikely to do much better with black voters going forwards, and as they’re the core of the Democratic voting bloc, tend to drop out. But who even knows, this year.

There’s a strong argument to be made that SC should be even more important than it is. As was mentioned above, black voters are core to the Democratic constituency, and emphasizing the importance of this contest could serve to align candidates on black issues in the same way Iowa’s first-in-the-nation status somehow convinced everyone that ethanol would solve climate change and actually corn syrup in everything is fine.

As a primary, there’s not much to say on the process - show up on February 29th between 7AM and 7PM ET and vote. Voters may participate regardless of party affiliation, but if you’re thinking of trying to Operation Chaos the Republicans, don’t bother - the South Carolina primary has predicted their contest winner every presidential election since its inception (other than 2012), so naturally they canceled it this year. To check your voter registration status and find your polling place, click here. Want to register to vote? Click here for instructions on how.

The State of the Race

To avoid adding any extraneous editorializing on what's likely to be the hot-button section of the OP, I'm just going to link people to the latest 538 projection.

As of today, 1/27/2020, Joe Biden remains the favorite, with Sanders close behind, followed more distantly be Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg

Discussion Guidelines

Official Staff Communication
Okay, now for the rules. It’s been observed that political threads on Era are, bluntly speaking, a series of trashfires, except when they get really bad, at which point the discourse takes on a character more like that coal mine in West Virginia that’s been burning since the 80s. To attempt to alleviate that, we’re going to lay out some discussion guidelines.

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You can make jokes, you can be enthusiastic about your candidate. Try to avoid putting down other peoples’, as that kind of behavior tends to start fights, but we will not be moderating people simply for not liking something your favorite said or did. If you don’t think they’re being fair, you can of course try to address them without violating the above rules. If you do not believe you can address a post without breaking the rules, it’s most likely time to use the report button or reach out to the team directly. I would also encourage everyone to make use of their ignore lists if it's become clear that a poster you dislike isn't crossing any lines. If other peoples’ (non-hateful) political opinions bother you that much, it might be better to just stop seeing them.

We’ll be making an effort to send out action notices for this thread so you’ll know if something you reported was decided one way or the other. If you haven’t yet received a notice, it most likely means the team is debating. These things can take time, and we ask for your patience. Anybody found breaking the rules outlined in this staff post will first be given 1 week ban. Anybody who does so twice will be given a ban of 3 months or until July 22nd, 2020; whichever is longer.

Update (2/1/2020): In the interests of avoiding overmoderation and the corresponding chilling effect on discussion, we will issue warnings for some offenses. Progression of ban duration otherwise follows the above outline.

Update (2/3/2020): Initially, we didn't believe that conspiratorial thinking needed its own standard, but it's become clear over the last couple of days (and increasingly just tonight) that that assumption as incorrect. We are adding to the staff post: any pushing of conspiracy theories related to this election or 2016 will not be tolerated.
 
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Wilsongt

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,209
I am so ready for this primary season to be over with.

And ready for Tula Garbage to drop out.
 

Kangi

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,533
Elmore
I for one am glad that our first state in the primary season remains the inevitable trainwreck that is the Iowa caucus
 

Brock Reiher

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
36,784
thank you! it's nice to finally have a place to discuss polls without having to make a new thread. hoping Bernie wins big.
 

Realyst

Member
Oct 27, 2017
319
This primary season feels like it will never end. Can’t wait until we know who to fall behind for the general election!
 

sphagnum

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,213


The climb continues! Should Bernie win the first 3 states, it will be interesting to see if he manages to surpass Biden or if they become locked in an even struggle.
 

pigeon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,447
As a proud establishment Democrat, I am looking forward to casting my vote for the party’s traditional establishment preference, the candidate who was the runner-up in the previous primary and is “next in line”, Bernie Sanders.

edit to add: I was informed this post might be somehow inflammatory so I wanted to clarify that, although it is true that I am an establishment Democrat, and although it is true that I will vote for Bernie Sanders, and although it is true that Bernie Sanders was the runner up in the previous primary, and although it is true that the establishment in both parties often opts to support the "next in line" candidate, nevertheless the combination of all these true statements should be considered a joke, and no offense is intended.
 
Last edited:
Oct 25, 2017
6,647
Someone jumped the gun on the last debate thread, but I made this for that. Adjusted for the caucus.

So they're finally here, performing for you
If you know the words, you can join in too
Put your hands together, if you want to clap
As we take you through this Demo-rap!
Huh!

[Chorus]
IOWA
CAUCUS TIME!



He's the leader of the bunch, you know him well
Third time's the charm to kick some tail
His gaffes at times may fire in spurts
But when he beats ya, it's gonna hurt!
He's bigger, faster, and stronger too
He's the first member of the DNC crew!
Huh!

[Chorus]
IOWA
CAUCUS TIME!
IOWA
CAUCUS TIME IS HERE!



This one's got style, so listen up dudes
She can throw some staplers, to suit her mood
She's quick and nimble when she needs to be
She can comb up salad with relative ease!
If you choose her, you'll not choose wrong
With a skip and a hop, she's one cool mom!
Huh!

[Chorus]
IOWA!
CAUCUS TIME!



He has no style, he has no grace
Th-this guy has some birdies to chase!
He medicare plan will cure your booboo
He'll cancel all debt, just for you
Inflate the debt just like a balloon
This crazy one sings to his own tune!
Huh!

[Chorus]
IOWA
CAUCUS TIME!
IOWA
CAUCUS TIME IS HERE!



He's back again and ready to burst
From the large city (three hundred and first!)
He can fly real high around South Bend
Searching for his one African American friend!
He'll make you smile when he plays his tune
But progressives beware 'cause he's after you!
Huh!

[Chorus]
IOWA!
CAUCUS TIME!



Finally, she's here for you
It's the last member of the DNC crew!
Her running for Prez sure isn't funny
Has tons of proposals 'cause she ain't dummy
Can craft up a plan with relative ease
Makes good progress seem such a breeze
She may move slow, she can't jump high
But at 70 young, she's still so spry!


(and the rest...)
 
OP
OP
Poodlestrike

Poodlestrike

It's salt.
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
6,555
What had to be done.
Runner up for thread subtitle.
Really interested to see turnout.
Enthusiasm is through the roof, but I'm not sure it'll turn up in the primary so much. People really desperately want Trump out, but all the big candidates being fairly popular means people might not feel the pressure to show up in the primary in the same way.
Lets do this gang. Feel the Bern 2020. Hoping it starts strong in Iowa next week.
I would legit take Biden over Pete at this point. Pete reindexed my issues with Biden, he's so bad, and he doesn't even have the electability argument.
 

Muzy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,619
Thank god this shit’s almost over.

Wait what do you mean we haven’t even truly begun????
 

Tukarrs

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,274
Those are some strict rules. I hope people will be able to abide by them.

Personally I'm looking forward to seeing the results next week. I'm going to be putting in a lot of hours volunteering remotely.
 

Mekanos

Member
Oct 17, 2018
16,788
Where's the option to go into a coma for the rest of 2020? I don't think I can last the whole year.
 
OP
OP
Poodlestrike

Poodlestrike

It's salt.
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
6,555
Someone jumped the gun on the last debate thread, but I made this for that. Adjusted for the caucus.

So they're finally here, performing for you
If you know the words, you can join in too
Put your hands together, if you want to clap
As we take you through this Demo-rap!
Huh!

[Chorus]
IOWA
CAUCUS TIME!



He's the leader of the bunch, you know him well
Third time's the charm to kick some tail
His gaffes at times may fire in spurts
But when he beats ya, it's gonna hurt!
He's bigger, faster, and stronger too
He's the first member of the DNC crew!
Huh!

[Chorus]
IOWA
CAUCUS TIME!
IOWA
CAUCUS TIME IS HERE!



This one's got style, so listen up dudes
She can throw some staplers, to suit her mood
She's quick and nimble when she needs to be
She can comb up salad with relative ease!
If you choose her, you'll not choose wrong
With a skip and a hop, she's one cool mom!
Huh!

[Chorus]
IOWA!
CAUCUS TIME!



He has no style, he has no grace
Th-this guy has some birdies to chase!
He medicare plan will cure your booboo
He'll cancel all debt, just for you
Inflate the debt just like a balloon
This crazy one sings to his own tune!
Huh!

[Chorus]
IOWA
CAUCUS TIME!
IOWA
CAUCUS TIME IS HERE!



He's back again and ready to burst
From the large city (three hundred and first!)
He can fly real high around South Bend
Searching for his one African American friend!
He'll make you smile when he plays his tune
But progressives beware 'cause he's after you!
Huh!

[Chorus]
IOWA!
CAUCUS TIME!



Finally, she's here for you
It's the last member of the DNC crew!
Her running for Prez sure isn't funny
Has tons of proposals 'cause she ain't dummy
Can craft up a plan with relative ease
Makes good progress seem such a breeze
She may move slow, she can't jump high
But at 70 young, she's still so spry!


(and the rest...)
Oh lord
Where's the option to go into a coma for the rest of 2020? I don't think I can last the whole year.
Gotta get you back up and running before November. Lotsa doors to knock on!
 

Kaban

Member
Oct 25, 2017
592
Bernie has a better chance of clinching the nomination this time round than in 2016, but I'm still not holding my breath. Would prefer Warren win the whole thing, but that seems like even more of a pipe dream at this point.

Whatever happens, it'll be a shitshow.
 

Trey

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,335
Blue no matter who.

I'll be keeping a close eye on the Senate races and a few local seats in NY. Should be an interesting election season.
 
OP
OP
Poodlestrike

Poodlestrike

It's salt.
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
6,555
Thank god this shit’s almost over.

Wait what do you mean we haven’t even truly begun????
When I showed the draft of this to the other staff members somebody from Canada asked about the odd duration in the discussion guidelines. I had to explain that it was because that's when the convention wraps up. They were appropriately appalled.

We got another 6 goddamn months of this y'all
Those are some strict rules. I hope people will be able to abide by them.

Personally I'm looking forward to seeing the results next week. I'm going to be putting in a lot of hours volunteering remotely.
If they don't, they'll be banned. We are seriously not messing around here.
 

xenocide

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,407
Vermont
Blue no matter who.

I'll be keeping a close eye on the Senate races and a few local seats in NY. Should be an interesting election season.
This is important. Regardless of who wins, they need support to help push turnout for downballot candidates. Any Dem President trying to push legislation with McConnell in power is going to be Jimmy Carter 2.0, and will hurt any chances we had of progressive changes in our lifetime honestly.
 

jph139

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,565
Massachusetts
I'm pretty confident that any of the frontrunners (except maybe Pete) will win in November. And while I have my fairly strong preferences, I ultimately would be okay with most of the current field winning.

So, as long as I manage to avoid the toxic cesspits of social media, I'm looking forward to seeing it all shake out. It's going to be interesting, if nothing else, and it's exciting that we seem to have a really open field this late in the game.

That being said, I was saying like a year ago it would look like this: Biden leading the moderates, with Harris a wildcard behind him, and Bernie leading the leftists, with Warren as a wildcard behind him. I definitely didn't expect Harris to crash so hard, or Pete to rise so fast, but for all of the candidates and controversies and debates... it's kind of funny how things landed pretty much where everyone expected.
 

Deriok

Avenger
Nov 27, 2017
351
Bernie's peaking right now. Lead in Iowa, Lead in NH. I believe he's actually going to come out on top this time around.
 

jviggy43

Member
Oct 28, 2017
17,232
What had to be done.

Runner up for thread subtitle.

Enthusiasm is through the roof, but I'm not sure it'll turn up in the primary so much. People really desperately want Trump out, but all the big candidates being fairly popular means people might not feel the pressure to show up in the primary in the same way.

I would legit take Biden over Pete at this point. Pete reindexed my issues with Biden, he's so bad, and he doesn't even have the electability argument.
Idk if I'd go that far but yeah Pete certainly is either 1A or 1B for worst candidate in this race. But I get why some would rank Pete dead last. He really just isn't a trustworthy candidate.
 

Trey

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,335
Bernie's peaking right now. Lead in Iowa, Lead in NH. I believe he's actually going to come out on top this time around.
The two whitest states imaginable aren't indicative of too much nationally, although of course he'd rather win them than not. We'll see if his recent + polling with minorities holds into the middle-late stages of the primaries.
 

xenocide

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,407
Vermont
Predictions on Iowa?
I say only the top 4 come out of it with delegates
It’s probably closer than anyone wants to admit. We could easily see the top 4 split delegates with the winner getting ~25% of the vote.

My guess is probably in the ballpark of:
Bernie 25-26%
Biden 20-22%
Warren 16-18%
Pete 16-18%
Klob 9-10%
Steyer 5-6%
 

Ogodei

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,917
Coruscant
Let's go Liz!

(It'll be Biden, probably, unless he loses decisively in IA/NH/NV which takes the wind out of his sails. Super Tuesday's a too-favorable environ for him that could solidify the contest).

So really, this thread is the thread. The contests here will decide the rest.
 

Blue Skies

Banned
Mar 27, 2019
7,325
Let's go Liz!

(It'll be Biden, probably, unless he loses decisively in IA/NH/NV which takes the wind out of his sails. Super Tuesday's a too-favorable environ for him that could solidify the contest).

So really, this thread is the thread. The contests here will decide the rest.
Yea looking at all the super Tuesday’s and Biden’s got at least half the vote