bloomberg would have a majority of the party sit out. before biden's enthusaism gap, it would be an absolute slaughter
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Democratic Presidential Primary |February OT| It Can't be Worse than Iowa, Right? (Discussion Guidelines in OP)
- Thread starter Poodlestrike
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bloomberg would have a majority of the party sit out. before biden's enthusaism gap, it would be an absolute slaughter
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Tbh the thing with Bloomberg is that I feel like he's got a fairly inflated polling average right now. In a lot of these super Tuesday and beyond states he's the only person doing any campaigning or running any ads. When it comes time for them to vote, the landscape is gonna look pretty different.
And even accounting for that he's still not breaking 20% in these polls. Hell, he's barely breaking 15 in a lot of them. As thing stand, if the election happens tomorrow, viability thresholds mean Bernie probably walks out with a titanic delegate lead and probably the nomination. Still time for that to change, but if the moderates stay in until then, I think he might just have it.
Which would be good. I still love Liz Warren's campaign but at this point Bloomberg has me doing strategic voting calculations lol. So yeah, I'm feeling the Bern, if only to stop Bloomberg, and I'd bet a fair few other people are feeling the same kinda way
And even accounting for that he's still not breaking 20% in these polls. Hell, he's barely breaking 15 in a lot of them. As thing stand, if the election happens tomorrow, viability thresholds mean Bernie probably walks out with a titanic delegate lead and probably the nomination. Still time for that to change, but if the moderates stay in until then, I think he might just have it.
Which would be good. I still love Liz Warren's campaign but at this point Bloomberg has me doing strategic voting calculations lol. So yeah, I'm feeling the Bern, if only to stop Bloomberg, and I'd bet a fair few other people are feeling the same kinda way
Man it would be incredible irony if at the end of the day Bloomberg coming into the race handed Bernie the nomination because he forced the left/center-left to reconcile to stop him.
I've been saying for awhile now how beneficial I think Bloomberg entering is for Bernie.
That said, I think it has less to do with forces reconciling and more to do with keeping the vote largely fractured allowing Sanders with the largest base of support to win off his base.
Yeah totally agree on the fracturing bit. I was entertaining a more hypothetical scenario where towards the end of the primary it was down to Bloomberg/Bernie.
I do think it's key that Bernie has been making huge overtures towards party unity in his speeches. That's the kind of thing that'll soften the blow to people who don't want him as the nominee if he ends up winning.
I'm waiting until the 25th to do the same vote. Making sure I can bring friends. ALso got a House candidate to vote for (if you're in the Triad- do not vote Kathy Manning- she's a Bloomberg backer)
Did you miss a few pages back when a site moderator defended Bloomberg buying himself into the race as "Democracy" lol
They don't like Bloomberg, they just enjoy shaming minorities to fall into line.
Some more words of wisdom from Bloomberg's past:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...ys-de-blasio-running-racist-campaign/2780955/
If you're white and your wife is black, showing her in your campaign ads is racist.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...ys-de-blasio-running-racist-campaign/2780955/
If you're white and your wife is black, showing her in your campaign ads is racist.
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Also allows him to hammer even harder on core messaging, but I'd agree that the electoral math is probably the biggest portion.
What kind of image did you put into my head? If you thought the misplaced rage and media fuckery was bad before........I can't even imagine
Incredible
It's definitely a new feeling.
I supported him for a lot of 2016, but I never really believed he would win. His performance was really poor. He was never not trailing by a huge margin. So while I liked Bernie Sanders and supported his ideas I never considered his bid a real possibility. I was one of those people who thought his best contribution was "pushing Hillary to the Left" and was content with that.
But this time he's... actually doing pretty well and that's weird. I didn't even want him to run again. I felt like he already tried and lost and would lose harder if he tried again. But here we are.
All Bloomberg does is siphon Biden/Klobuchar votes. It's fantastic for Bernie and Warren (even if Warren is no longer a factor unfortunately).
kind of poetic that for the last go around super tuesday is what ended his campaign's chances and this time it'll probably end up being what propels him to the nomination
Came across this Georgia poll, apologies if it was already posted.
- Biden still has a huge lead, which speaks to his continued strength in the South. Super Tuesday is the make-or-break for his campaign but if Georgia is any indication he still stands to perform well in states like Georgia, Alabama, Lousiana, and the Carolinas. Biden may very likely be back in the game then.
- Sanders and Bloomberg are basically tied with only a .2% difference. At first I was upset that Bloomberg is in third, but considering he is basically in second is devastating. It's a distant tied-for-second but still.
- Pete does better Warren, oof.
- 25.8% voters are still undecided.
- Biden still has a huge lead, which speaks to his continued strength in the South. Super Tuesday is the make-or-break for his campaign but if Georgia is any indication he still stands to perform well in states like Georgia, Alabama, Lousiana, and the Carolinas. Biden may very likely be back in the game then.
- Sanders and Bloomberg are basically tied with only a .2% difference. At first I was upset that Bloomberg is in third, but considering he is basically in second is devastating. It's a distant tied-for-second but still.
- Pete does better Warren, oof.
- 25.8% voters are still undecided.
Texas Tribune Poll
Poll (1/31-2/9):
Sanders 24%
Biden 22%
Warren 15%
Bloomberg 10%
Buttigieg 7%
Yang 6%
Steyer 3%
Klobuchar 3%
:watermark(cdn.texastribune.org/media/watermarks/2020.png,-0,30,0)/static.texastribune.org/media/files/0ef69ea16aed7f685409ac2dc59df478/PRESIDENT%20UT%20TT%20Poll%20Bernie.jpg)
www.texastribune.org
Poll (1/31-2/9):
Sanders 24%
Biden 22%
Warren 15%
Bloomberg 10%
Buttigieg 7%
Yang 6%
Steyer 3%
Klobuchar 3%
Bernie Sanders leaps to first among Texas Democrats in latest UT/TT Poll
Sanders now leads the Democratic presidential candidates among Texas voters, but Donald Trump maintains a slight lead over each of the top Democrats in the race, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.
www.texastribune.org
This right here is WHY Joe Biden needs to stay all the wayCame across this Georgia poll, apologies if it was already posted.
- Biden still has a huge lead, which speaks to his continued strength in the South. Super Tuesday is the make-or-break for his campaign but if Georgia is any indication he still stands to perform well in states like Georgia, Alabama, Lousiana, and the Carolinas. Biden may very likely be back in the game then.
- Sanders and Bloomberg are basically tied with only a .2% difference. At first I was upset that Bloomberg is in third, but considering he is basically in second is devastating. It's a distant tied-for-second but still.
- Pete does better Warren, oof.
- 25.8% voters are still undecided.
Joe Biden is actually the main roadblock to Michael Bloomberg
I voted for Bernie in the 16 primary but he got trounced by Hillary. Kind of undecided this go around, I just want Trump out.Came across this Georgia poll, apologies if it was already posted.
- Biden still has a huge lead, which speaks to his continued strength in the South. Super Tuesday is the make-or-break for his campaign but if Georgia is any indication he still stands to perform well in states like Georgia, Alabama, Lousiana, and the Carolinas. Biden may very likely be back in the game then.
- Sanders and Bloomberg are basically tied with only a .2% difference. At first I was upset that Bloomberg is in third, but considering he is basically in second is devastating. It's a distant tied-for-second but still.
- Pete does better Warren, oof.
- 25.8% voters are still undecided.
Unless Bernie wins outright on Super Tuesday with his lead in California and Texas, I really hope Biden , Bloomberg and Pete get enough support distributed evenly to stick around to further split the moderate vote and help Bernie.
Hard to see a scenario where Bernie doesn't win at least a plurality, in which case denying him the nomination would be political suicide for the Democratic Party.
Hard to see a scenario where Bernie doesn't win at least a plurality, in which case denying him the nomination would be political suicide for the Democratic Party.
Good news: Biden has taken a nosedive in Florida since the primaries began!
Bad news: Bloomberg picked up all of his slack and then some. Hopefully things get shaken up once other candidates start running ads, but this is a truly horrifying turn of events. Bloomberg is even leading in some projections.
Edit: Actually, there's something very funky going on with this poll
18 to 29 (327 responses)
Biden: 29.7% Bloomberg: 23.2% Buttigieg: 7.3% Klobuchar: 7.0% Sanders: 14.7% Steyer: 1.5% Warren: 3.4% Undecided: 13.1%
Bad news: Bloomberg picked up all of his slack and then some. Hopefully things get shaken up once other candidates start running ads, but this is a truly horrifying turn of events. Bloomberg is even leading in some projections.
Edit: Actually, there's something very funky going on with this poll
18 to 29 (327 responses)
Biden: 29.7% Bloomberg: 23.2% Buttigieg: 7.3% Klobuchar: 7.0% Sanders: 14.7% Steyer: 1.5% Warren: 3.4% Undecided: 13.1%
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I hope Bloomberg gets destroyed during his first debate and hopefully these poll numbers are just a symptom of him buying a fuckton of ads and never having a chance to be attacked
Bernie, Pete and Warren may not get much delegates out of Florida at this rate.
Bloomberg: 27%
Biden: 26%
Pete: 11%
Bernie: 10%
Klobb: 9%
Warren: 5%
Bernie needs to do better than this in Florida. A statistical tie in Texas, can be canceled our by a poor performance in Florida.
Bloomberg: 27%
Biden: 26%
Pete: 11%
Bernie: 10%
Klobb: 9%
Warren: 5%
Bernie needs to do better than this in Florida. A statistical tie in Texas, can be canceled our by a poor performance in Florida.
Biden taking a nose dive is not good news.
Florida is Sander's worst State
Cuban-Americans who fled Castro Cuba will not vote for Sanders
With friends like these lol. Malcolm was right, the fox and the wolf.
I updated my last post re: the Biden drop and Bloomberg bounce in Florida, but I think may this poll isn't great based on the demographic breakdown. For what it's worth, FiveThirtyEight has St. Pete Polls down as their least reputable pollsters yet to work Florida, though their rating isn't absolutely atrocious. I just wish more people would start polling us because, uh, we're kind of a big deal.
18 to 29 (327 responses)
Biden: 29.7% Bloomberg: 23.2% Buttigieg: 7.3% Klobuchar: 7.0% Sanders: 14.7% Steyer: 1.5% Warren: 3.4% Undecided: 13.1%
This just doesn't track at all with national polling. I would at least expect Bernie to be in second among the youngest age bracket. Cubans may be wary of socialism and leftist politics, but I can tell you as someone that lives here that the aversion is not that extreme, particularly among young people.
As others have said, though, hopefully Bloomberg gets shredded in the upcoming debate. He's been utterly blanketing us in ads, so that probably accounts for a lot of this climb. Still horrifying.
18 to 29 (327 responses)
Biden: 29.7% Bloomberg: 23.2% Buttigieg: 7.3% Klobuchar: 7.0% Sanders: 14.7% Steyer: 1.5% Warren: 3.4% Undecided: 13.1%
This just doesn't track at all with national polling. I would at least expect Bernie to be in second among the youngest age bracket. Cubans may be wary of socialism and leftist politics, but I can tell you as someone that lives here that the aversion is not that extreme, particularly among young people.
As others have said, though, hopefully Bloomberg gets shredded in the upcoming debate. He's been utterly blanketing us in ads, so that probably accounts for a lot of this climb. Still horrifying.
Biden's lead in Florida had been that big? A clean majority? He could have won all of the state delegates outright.
When is this, by the way? I never watch them (limited access) but they seem to have had some big consequences this cycle.
Honestly, I'd rather Bloomberg and Biden compete for the top spot in Florida than just let Biden have his run of the place. Before post-Bloomberg polling began, Biden was looking to run the table here. Now it'll at least be some kind of split. It still sucks, but it hopefully this would keep somebody from approaching a plurality.
For what it's worth, I definitely know (and am related to) many Cuban-American Democrats who refuse to vote for Sanders in the primary, and a handful who even refuse to back him in the general. But I also know a pretty decent number of Cuban-American liberals who are open to it, particularly young folks. Cubans, while still generally more conservative than most Hispanics, are softening with the years as they recognize the utility of leftist social programs. People here, even conservatives, love Obamacare, for example. It's the messaging that's the hurdle.
February 19, 9 pm ET on NBC.
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Polls this far out don't mean a ton, it's fine. Even in the most educated state in the nation (by some measures), among a Democratic primary electorate, nearly half of the voters in NH made up their minds in the last few days before the election.
The strong majority of voters in places like Florida and Georgia won't even start paying attention until well after Super Tuesday, and as we've seen numbers can shift dramatically in a very short amount of time as people see that the candidates they thought were "electable" are not winning and others are.
The strong majority of voters in places like Florida and Georgia won't even start paying attention until well after Super Tuesday, and as we've seen numbers can shift dramatically in a very short amount of time as people see that the candidates they thought were "electable" are not winning and others are.
Don't even think it's that tbh (although it is a huge factor). They voted for Trump last time around. They're much different than us on the west coast.
Precisely why I was telling people to hold off saying Biden is officially done based on two of the whitest states. If he tanks in the south, he is absolutely done. But until then, he's definitely still in this.Came across this Georgia poll, apologies if it was already posted.
- Biden still has a huge lead, which speaks to his continued strength in the South. Super Tuesday is the make-or-break for his campaign but if Georgia is any indication he still stands to perform well in states like Georgia, Alabama, Lousiana, and the Carolinas. Biden may very likely be back in the game then.
- Sanders and Bloomberg are basically tied with only a .2% difference. At first I was upset that Bloomberg is in third, but considering he is basically in second is devastating. It's a distant tied-for-second but still.
- Pete does better Warren, oof.
- 25.8% voters are still undecided.
Every time Bloomberg tries to talk it's like a mummy attempting to communicate after thousands of years in a crypt.
I would have thought the last few state polls would have helped break this thread's Bloomberg fever
Reports of Biden's campaign's death have been greatly exaggerated (at the very least, he's polling well in the places that he should be), which if you don't want Bloomberg is excellent news. I personally think Biden is still Bernie's biggest rival for the nomination, once they actually start campaigning in ST states you'll see how much of Bloomberg's support will crumble like a tower of cards.
Like Biden's huge lead last year and Warren's surge, Boomberg's numbers are mirages that will immediately collapse the second he's put under any scrutiny. Biden's only real problem is money, but I think if he goes to his corporate money men and waves these Southern polls around they'll see that he can still do well on Super Tuesday and beyond...
Reports of Biden's campaign's death have been greatly exaggerated (at the very least, he's polling well in the places that he should be), which if you don't want Bloomberg is excellent news. I personally think Biden is still Bernie's biggest rival for the nomination, once they actually start campaigning in ST states you'll see how much of Bloomberg's support will crumble like a tower of cards.
Like Biden's huge lead last year and Warren's surge, Boomberg's numbers are mirages that will immediately collapse the second he's put under any scrutiny. Biden's only real problem is money, but I think if he goes to his corporate money men and waves these Southern polls around they'll see that he can still do well on Super Tuesday and beyond...
Hunting down every dipshit that's screeched Bernie's not a democrat for the past five years, BRB
GOD I hope the other candidates nail him in the next debate. They HAVE to.
It just goes to show you how meaningless the debates are. I mean they're run by the most biased media institutions in the country, moderated by talking heads. It's especially bad this cycle with so many candidates on stage, it defeats the whole purpose of a debate.
Edit: They wouldn't even do a climate debate ffs!!!
I would think if Sanders ( or anyone) starts to get more wins and publicity the polls will change.
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