Democratic Presidential Primary |February OT| It Can't be Worse than Iowa, Right? (Discussion Guidelines in OP)

Who's Going to Win South Carolina?

  • Joe Biden

    Votes: 554 38.5%
  • Bernie Sanders

    Votes: 833 57.9%
  • Elizabeth Warren

    Votes: 22 1.5%
  • Pete Buttigieg

    Votes: 7 0.5%
  • THE KLOBBERER

    Votes: 16 1.1%
  • Tom Steyer

    Votes: 6 0.4%

  • Total voters
    1,438
  • This poll will close: .

RailWays

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
7,537
Bernie, Pete and Warren may not get much delegates out of Florida at this rate.


Bloomberg: 27%
Biden: 26%
Pete: 11%
Bernie: 10%
Klobb: 9%
Warren: 5%

Bernie needs to do better than this in Florida. A statistical tie in Texas, can be canceled our by a poor performance in Florida.
Luckily, Florida takes place after Super Tuesday. So a lot can potentially change by then.
 

thewienke

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,945
It's ridiculous that Bloomberg can sit out of some debates, just buy his way in and come close. Plutocracy doing it's job I guess :/
I kinda wonder how well that speaks for our current candidate lineup when someone can come in late and get double digit support?

Is there just a whole lot of really fickle or basically undecided support out there? Or is there an underlying feeling of “well I don’t really like anyone all that much”?
 

Violet

Alt account
Banned
Feb 7, 2019
3,263
dc
I kinda wonder how well that speaks for our current candidate lineup when someone can come in late and get double digit support?

Is there just a whole lot of really fickle or basically undecided support out there? Or is there an underlying feeling of “well I don’t really like anyone all that much”?
I know one person who told me she was thinking about supporting Bloomberg IRL, and her logic was basically

- we need someone Trump hates. He hates Bloomberg!

- Beating Trump is most important

- Who cares what his policies are
 
Oct 27, 2017
6,691
I kinda wonder how well that speaks for our current candidate lineup when someone can come in late and get double digit support?

Is there just a whole lot of really fickle or basically undecided support out there? Or is there an underlying feeling of “well I don’t really like anyone all that much”?
It speaks to how uniformed the electorate is. They're getting blasted with Bloomberg, and the layperson sees this rich person and rich=smart so there we are.
 

Psychonaut

Member
Jan 11, 2018
2,761
Looking at these St. Pete Polls results more closely and the age-based results continue to make no sense. Here are the age brackets ranked based on how large a share Biden has:
  1. 18 - 29
  2. 30 - 49
  3. 70+
  4. 50 - 69
This is absolute malarkey. I also REALLY don't trust Sanders's low shares in Orlando and Gainesville.

In terms of population percentages, black people are well over-represented in this poll, but that likely reflects the focus on "likely voters" (whatever that means), which may in turn explain the also notably underrepresented Hispanic population.
 
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RailWays

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
7,537
it will be worse, more time goes, more and more Bloomberg can buy the airwaves

Bloomberg will take Florida and it will be a notch for him

we are better off with Biden winning Florida than Bloomberg
I don't think it's that hopeless, honestly. Bernie's volunteers have been putting in some work down here, as decentralized as Florida democratic bodies tend to be. A week before Iowa, the campaign directed us to start banking/canvassing in our local states and there have been a decent amount of successful events these past weeks.
 

PogChamp

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
7,106
With Bloomberg on the rise I think I'll just stop paying attention until the convention. Keeping up with the process is actually completely pointless if Bernie doesn't get 1990 delegates. Rather not get my hopes up and just wait for the inevitable chaos of the brokered convention.
 

mightynine

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,562
I kinda wonder how well that speaks for our current candidate lineup when someone can come in late and get double digit support?

Is there just a whole lot of really fickle or basically undecided support out there? Or is there an underlying feeling of “well I don’t really like anyone all that much”?
It shows that, for the most part, unless you're about to cast a vote in a primary, you're not paying attention to this that closely. Bloomberg may be spending like a drunken sailor, but he also has vague name recognition and that's helping him get up there in polls. If it were just money involved, Steyer would be polling higher.

Basically, no Democratic candidate has truly pulled away from the pack to be considered an honest-to-goodness "frontrunner", in my opinion.
 

Addie

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,560
D.C.
I kinda wonder how well that speaks for our current candidate lineup when someone can come in late and get double digit support?

Is there just a whole lot of really fickle or basically undecided support out there? Or is there an underlying feeling of “well I don’t really like anyone all that much”?
I agree. It's a pretty weak field overall, at least insofar as we're discussing candidates with obvious weaknesses that would hinder them from reaching 1990 delegates. But, that's usually all candidates. I agree there's no front-runner who's obviously running away with it, but it's also quite early.

I don't think there's necessarily an underlying feeling of "I don't like anyone all that much," but I do think there are at the very least soft caps on candidates' ceilings. They can break through, but they all have work to do.
 
Oct 27, 2017
656
I kinda wonder how well that speaks for our current candidate lineup when someone can come in late and get double digit support?

Is there just a whole lot of really fickle or basically undecided support out there? Or is there an underlying feeling of “well I don’t really like anyone all that much”?
It’s unquestionably a weak line-up as far as I’m concerned. Joe Biden just looks like he’s decomposing, Warren would, in my opinion, make a fine President but doesn’t have ‘it’ and therefore isn’t catching on with the public, Buttigieg is a small city mayor with a bland offering and Bernie “Very Fine People” Sanders just isn’t very likeable despite having a fervent support base, and, if he’s the nominee, will be slammed with wall to wall ads showing the clip of him saying “I am a socialist” en route to the worst Democratic performance in a Presidential election since Dukakis.
 

Nocturne

Member
Oct 25, 2017
239
Bernie “Very Fine People” Sanders just isn’t very likeable despite having a fervent support base, and, if he’s the nominee, will be slammed with wall to wall ads showing the clip of him saying “I am a socialist” en route to the worst Democratic performance in a Presidential election since Dukakis.
he is literally the most liked us senator lol
 

Snowy

Member
Nov 11, 2017
1,228
It’s unquestionably a weak line-up as far as I’m concerned. Joe Biden just looks like he’s decomposing, Warren would, in my opinion, make a fine President but doesn’t have ‘it’ and therefore isn’t catching on with the public, Buttigieg is a small city mayor with a bland offering and Bernie “Very Fine People” Sanders just isn’t very likeable despite having a fervent support base, and, if he’s the nominee, will be slammed with wall to wall ads showing the clip of him saying “I am a socialist” en route to the worst Democratic performance in a Presidential election since Dukakis.
Bernie is incredibly likable, dude. Almost every Republican I know at least respects him, even if they don’t agree with him.
 

jviggy43

Member
Oct 28, 2017
17,297
It’s unquestionably a weak line-up as far as I’m concerned. Joe Biden just looks like he’s decomposing, Warren would, in my opinion, make a fine President but doesn’t have ‘it’ and therefore isn’t catching on with the public, Buttigieg is a small city mayor with a bland offering and Bernie “Very Fine People” Sanders just isn’t very likeable despite having a fervent support base, and, if he’s the nominee, will be slammed with wall to wall ads showing the clip of him saying “I am a socialist” en route to the worst Democratic performance in a Presidential election since Dukakis.
Do you think this isn't going to be the case for every candidate lol?
 

Addie

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,560
D.C.
I'm worried for my Bernie...
Bernie remains the most likely to achieve the nomination. He polls well vs. Trump in head-to-heads. He should understand that youth turnout is notoriously unreliable and factor that into future campaign decision-making. But, it's likely that he will become president.

And yet, I think Bernie will be a wildly ineffective president. I hope he will not be ineffective, and I'd like to be proven wrong; I just don't think I will be. And yet, based on the current field and because of Warren's non-viability, I wish his campaign the best because it's currently trending positively.
 

Brinbe

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
20,413
Terana
Bloomberg's numbers are inflated and based on nothing but ads. The minute he gets on that debate stage, he will be exposed.

And once his record undergoes actual real scrutiny, that's a double whammy. Mike fucking Bloomberg is not winning a Democratic primary.

Early days yet, but Bernard is still top dog right now with a hugely divided moderate lane. He's almost exactly where Trump was in 2016 and he came out of it with the nomination. Same shit will happen here because none of these other establishment Dems are actual good candidates.
 

PMS341

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
4,085
It’s unquestionably a weak line-up as far as I’m concerned. Joe Biden just looks like he’s decomposing, Warren would, in my opinion, make a fine President but doesn’t have ‘it’ and therefore isn’t catching on with the public, Buttigieg is a small city mayor with a bland offering and Bernie “Very Fine People” Sanders just isn’t very likeable despite having a fervent support base, and, if he’s the nominee, will be slammed with wall to wall ads showing the clip of him saying “I am a socialist” en route to the worst Democratic performance in a Presidential election since Dukakis.
Fox News called Buttigieg a socialist lol. They are gonna use that boogeyman against anyone who is the nominee.
 

_Karooo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,863
It’s unquestionably a weak line-up as far as I’m concerned. Joe Biden just looks like he’s decomposing, Warren would, in my opinion, make a fine President but doesn’t have ‘it’ and therefore isn’t catching on with the public, Buttigieg is a small city mayor with a bland offering and Bernie “Very Fine People” Sanders just isn’t very likeable despite having a fervent support base, and, if he’s the nominee, will be slammed with wall to wall ads showing the clip of him saying “I am a socialist” en route to the worst Democratic performance in a Presidential election since Dukakis.
Wrong. Bernie is authentic and the Dems will fall in love with him in the general. Comparing him to Dukakis is a joke.
 

medinaria

Member
Oct 30, 2017
498
honestly, a lot of the more distant state polling numbers are mostly undecided support. most campaigns have just now started to run in super tuesday states, to say nothing of states after that. this generally ends up meaning that a lot of voters are undecided because they just haven't really seen much of these candidates yet - I know that's weird to say, considering how obsessively some people follow the whole primary (and I don't say this pejoratively, I'm kind of one of them), but a lot of voters have no opinion until they see ads or someone knocks on their door.

this ends up meaning that a lot of people fall into either the "no idea" category, or pick the person whose name they recognize and feel vaguely positively about. for the most part, that slot is filled by bloomberg (who has been advertising a lot nationwide) or biden (who is joe biden). those voters are reachable and persuadable, and this is a trend we end up seeing in a lot of states. things will change as we get closer - we're only just now seeing movement in some of the super tuesday states (e.g. the texas poll that had sanders up).
 

jcs

Member
Aug 7, 2018
2,214
It’s unquestionably a weak line-up as far as I’m concerned. Joe Biden just looks like he’s decomposing, Warren would, in my opinion, make a fine President but doesn’t have ‘it’ and therefore isn’t catching on with the public, Buttigieg is a small city mayor with a bland offering and Bernie “Very Fine People” Sanders just isn’t very likeable despite having a fervent support base, and, if he’s the nominee, will be slammed with wall to wall ads showing the clip of him saying “I am a socialist” en route to the worst Democratic performance in a Presidential election since Dukakis.
Obama was called a socialist even after bailing out the banks and coming out as extremely corp friendly. Hillary was called a socialist. GOP will call any Dem a socialist. That's the least of our worries.
 

gutter_trash

Member
Oct 26, 2017
16,133
Montreal
Democrats need to bring up Bloomberg's past a Republican

the guy was a self-identified Republican as Mayor and stumped for George W. Bush against John Kerry
 

PogChamp

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
7,106
Bloomberg's numbers are inflated and based on nothing but ads. The minute he gets on that debate stage, he will be exposed.

And once his record undergoes actual real scrutiny, that's a double whammy. Mike fucking Bloomberg is not winning a Democratic primary.

Early days yet, but Bernard is still top dog right now with a hugely divided moderate lane. He's almost exactly where Trump was in 2016 and he came out of it with the nomination. Same shit will happen here because none of these other establishment Dems are actual good candidates.
Who is gonna expose Bloomberg? Biden? Lol

Bloomberg doesn't need to win a primary, just the nomination.
 
Oct 27, 2017
770

'"Harassment of all forms is unacceptable to me, and we urge supporters of all campaigns not to engage in bullying or ugly personal attacks," Sanders said in a statement.

"Anybody making personal attacks against anybody else in my name is not part of our movement," Sanders said. "We don't want them. And I'm not so sure, to be honest with you, that they are necessarily part of our movement."'

There, he's said it for the 500th time. Does that please you all yet?
 
Oct 27, 2017
656
Obama was called a socialist even after bailing out the banks and coming out as extremely corp friendly. Hillary was called a socialist. GOP will call any Dem a socialist. That's the least of our worries.
It’s a lot easier to drill the message home when the candidate is literally on film saying “I am a socialist”. The sort of candidates capable of transcending the labelling won’t have said that and certainly won’t be almost 80 years old.
 

Brinbe

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
20,413
Terana
Who is gonna expose Bloomberg? Biden? Lol

Bloomberg doesn't need to win a primary, just the nomination.
He's gonna expose himself lmfao. You can't win a primary or nomination with just TV ads. Those have diminishing returns after a while.

There's reason to worry but it's not reason to freak out that Bloomberg is the nominee.

Warren already went at him last debate. It will continue next one with all of them getting at him.

These candidates all spent all sorts of time and money in Iowa/NH. They're not gonna let Billionaire Bloomberg skate by unscathed.
 

phanphare

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,357

'"Harassment of all forms is unacceptable to me, and we urge supporters of all campaigns not to engage in bullying or ugly personal attacks," Sanders said in a statement.

"Anybody making personal attacks against anybody else in my name is not part of our movement," Sanders said. "We don't want them. And I'm not so sure, to be honest with you, that they are necessarily part of our movement."'

There, he's said it for the 500th time. Does that please you all yet?
the people who constantly hammer Sanders for twitter and reddit randos (that they literally seek out so they can then bitch about them) will never be satisfied

they're not acting in good faith so honestly it doesn't matter what they think
 

Draper

The Fallen
Oct 28, 2017
2,150
Harrisburg, PA
Bernie remains the most likely to achieve the nomination. He polls well vs. Trump in head-to-heads. He should understand that youth turnout is notoriously unreliable and factor that into future campaign decision-making. But, it's likely that he will become president.

And yet, I think Bernie will be a wildly ineffective president. I hope he will not be ineffective, and I'd like to be proven wrong; I just don't think I will be. And yet, based on the current field and because of Warren's non-viability, I wish his campaign the best because it's currently trending positively.
Why? He's tracking for an easy plurality of delegates

That's what they want, press on. Fuck em. We can win this against all odds if people keeping showing up and fighting.
Damn. I needed that. Thanks ya'll

Time to donate some more.
 

Zasa

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,700

I mean, this is horrible, but also “worst group in either party by far.” There are literal Nazi’s in the other party. This guy, alongside Chuck Todd, are moderating the next debate.
 

Apharmd

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,086
Bloomberg would not win, how could anyone believe this? He's the embodiment of The Enemy to the left wing of the party. His very presence would depress the Democratic turnout, his myriad scandals that are just like Trump's means he can't even run on the moral high ground, and Trump will just call him Mini Mike and people will eat it up.

He's a uniquely awful, awful candidate.
Yeah, the liberals looking to Bloomberg as an answer to their existential fear of Bernie's democratic socialism haven't thought things through fully. Maybe he wins some independents but the Democratic base is not going to show up for this guy, no matter how awful Trump is. I think Bernie as the frontrunner has broken people! I hope that, as we get closer to the end of the primaries, the center-left, and establishment media outlets, start to cool down and coalesce around Sanders as the nominee that we need to beat Trump.