Democratic Presidential Primary |February OT| It Can't be Worse than Iowa, Right? (Discussion Guidelines in OP)

Who's Your Pick for the Democratic Nominee (Round 2)

  • Bernie Sanders

    Votes: 1,536 80.7%
  • Joe Biden

    Votes: 23 1.2%
  • Elizabeth Warren

    Votes: 230 12.1%
  • Pete Buttigieg

    Votes: 60 3.2%
  • Amy Klobuchar

    Votes: 12 0.6%
  • Mike Bloomberg

    Votes: 39 2.0%
  • Tom Steyer

    Votes: 4 0.2%

  • Total voters
    1,904
  • Poll closed .
Jul 7, 2019
605
At the very least it indicates that the majority of primary voters want them as a candidate. Why people want to disregard that and expect the party to construct a ticket that wouldn't have said candidate is beyond me.
Not many of us remember ‘68 in Chicago (as in, none of us), but isn’t that what happened? And then there were riots?

Personally not worried, but maybe precedent has some worrying.
 

Kusagari

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,745

I mean, this is horrible, but also “worst group in either party by far.” There are literal Nazi’s in the other party. This guy, alongside Chuck Todd, are moderating the next debate.
Anyone who thinks those are the worst things said on social media by either group, has obviously never entered AOC or Ilhan's Twitter feeds.
 

Ziltoidia 9

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,304
It's so hard to know who really is a twitter user, if they are actually supporters, or if they are just trying to make a group look bad. With that said, it wouldn't surprise me that some would be assholes. There was alot of Flame at Warren. Everywhere from just an emote of a snake to ripping her bad. I think the best case would be for the average supporter to not jump in on the dog pile. So, I hope they just become more level headed.
 
Jan 3, 2018
1,724
I don't think Bloomberg is gonna win the nomination. It's either Bernie clinches enough delegates or we go brokered. Therefor its basically Bernie... or bust.
 

JABEE

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,085
Bloomberg helped Trump get Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court. I don’t know why he is welcomed by Democratic leadership with open arms other than his money.
 

PogChamp

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
6,878
At the very least it indicates that the majority of primary voters want them as a candidate. Why people want to disregard that and expect the party to construct a ticket that wouldn't have said candidate is beyond me.
All memes about moderate voltron aside, Bernie has the majority of primary voters in the specific circumstance that the moderate vote is getting split up by like 5+ other candidates.

During the brokered convention where delegates are allowed to vote however they want, are a majority of them progressive or moderate?

I can unironically see it now... "while Bernie won narrowly in many states, we felt that it would be a disservice to the overwhelming number of supporters who voiced their support for someone less radical who would unite the party."

He's gonna expose himself lmfao. You can't win a primary or nomination with just TV ads. Those have diminishing returns after a while.

There's reason to worry but it's not reason to freak out that Bloomberg is the nominee.

Warren already went at him last debate. It will continue next one with all of them getting at him.

These candidates all spent all sorts of time and money in Iowa/NH. They're not gonna let Billionaire Bloomberg skate by unscathed.
The other candidates are very weak by my metric. Unironically I think Klobuchar is the only feisty one on stage, and she can't really dig into Mike because his weakness is the exact same as hers - bad record with minorities.

All I'm saying is - don't be shocked if Mike comes out smelling like roses.
 

RailWays

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
7,479
Not many of us remember ‘68 in Chicago (as in, none of us), but isn’t that what happened? And then there were riots?

Personally not worried, but maybe precedent has some worrying.
While LBJ and Richard Daley did angle for Humphrey to take the convention, which did result in riots, Humphrey was the candidate with the plurality of delegates at the time, so it's not a 1:1 comparison here. Also Kennedy was assassinated during the primary so that created a mess with the delegates he had been allotted. Knowing this, why would the Democratic party not pick Sanders if he had a plurality of delegates? They know this would blow up the party.
 
Dec 31, 2017
3,359
We put too much emphasis on polls. Have we considered another very important factor, athletic ability, for which we have a clear frontrunner.

 

TheModestGun

Member
Dec 5, 2017
3,082
It bothers people that support Bloomberg that Bloomberg is doing what he's doing. No one is at all at ease with his past or who he is now.

But Trump is a national emergency. This isn't Mittens or Jeb! just slamming tax cuts, building a pipeline and shitting on the environment, and funneling money from poor kids to wealthy white parents through some religious freedom bullshit. This is the fabric of our democracy violently disintegrating under an idiot autocrat and his party hellbent on dismantling majority rule in the country just so they can stay in power without evolving at all.

Bloomberg can beat Trump. I don't think Bernie can. What do I do if I can't vote for Amy or Pete? I fill in that circle for Mike. I pledge my sacred duty as a citizen to a monster, and learn to live with it.

Please don't dismiss the incredible, overwhelming, oppressive amount of fear and anxiety that a lot of rank and file Democrats have right now. Good people will do terrible things when afraid, and this is one of them.
What even could possibly make you think that Bloomberg would ever ignite the democratic base to show up for him? There is nothing that indicates that he would excite the base or even rope in new voters in any large capacity. It would completely depress the progressive wing of the party's turnout, and despite Trump being a hypocrite, dont think for a second that he wouldn't use Bloomberg's racist record against him. He will do it. AND. IT. WILL. WORK.
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
11,162
What do people think any candidates chances of beating Trump are after a contested convention? Cause I don't see the outlook as rosy if things head that way no matter who emerges.

When was the last time super delegates were used to rob a candidate with the plurality of delegates?
The superdelegates will go to the one who has a plurality first, they're meant to give a plurality candidate a boost to outright win. If that doesn't put them in a spot to outright win, horse trading fuckery begins.

We put too much emphasis on polls. Have we considered another very important factor, athletic ability, for which we have a clear frontrunner.

biden will challenge Bernie to push ups at the next debate to settle things once and for all
 

Ziltoidia 9

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,304
In many ways Bloomberg is getting and easier path than Trump got by the media. At least Trump had constant negative coverage. It was free media play, but it was anti-trump non-da-less.
 

Kusagari

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,745
I still think Trump bringing a Big Gulp on the debate stage and drinking it in Bloomberg's face would probably instantly make Bloomberg lose the election.
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
11,162
Just because there aren't recent examples (to my knowledge) doesn't change the fact that they exist explicitly for this purpose. If they didn't, there would be no reason to have them.
They actually don't exist to over-ride pluralities, they exist to turn pluralities into majorities so that a contested convention can be avoided. Of course, the plurality in this case might be so thin that that doesn't work.
 

Ziltoidia 9

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,304
I feel like Nevada might go very much like Iowa went. Though it will be another test to see if THE MODERATES are still trying to shoot down Bernie. Since it is a caucus we will get weird viability things happening again.
 

jviggy43

Member
Oct 28, 2017
17,167
They actually don't exist to over-ride pluralities, they exist to turn pluralities into majorities so that a contested convention can be avoided.
This makes no sense. They could easily remove the threshold necessary and just go off of who gets the most delegates, if all they wanted to accomplish with it was to ensure the front runner wins. Additionally super delegates have no rule that they must vote for the front runner which is another caveat that makes what youre saying not true. They exist solely to allow the party a chance at shifting who wins the nom if they were unhappy with who got the most delegates in a close race. If they didn't, there would be provisions that the super delegates would HAVE to vote for the person with the plurality, and there is no such rule that mandates that.

Please please please be true
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
11,162
This makes no sense. They could easily remove the threshold necessary and just go off of who gets the most delegates, if all they wanted to accomplish with it was to ensure the front runner wins. Additionally super delegates have no rule that they must vote for the front runner which is another caveat that makes what youre saying not true. They exist solely to allow the party a chance at shifting who wins the nom if they were unhappy with who got the most delegates in a close race. If they didn't, there would be provisions that the super delegates would HAVE to vote for the person with the plurality, and there is no such rule that mandates that.
The main reason is what I said, the secondary reason is indeed this. I would be shocked if in the case of a contested convention (please, please, please no contested convention) the supers do not go to the plurality winner in the first round.

jesus christ the 2nd allignments are going to give me a heart attack
Almost want Biden to win Nevada so that Bloomer's vote share tanks.
 

phanphare

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,145
couldn't find any second choice stats but here are the favorables for the candidates from this poll

"Sanders (71 percent favorable, 25 percent unfavorable) and Warren (71 percent favorable, 23 percent unfavorable) had the highest favorability among the candidates. They were followed by Biden (68 percent favorable, 28 percent unfavorable), Steyer (64 percent favorable, 23 percent unfavorable), Klobuchar (62 percent favorable, 17 percent unfavorable) and Buttigieg (59 percent favorable, 25 percent unfavorable)"

 

samoyed

Member
Oct 26, 2017
10,104
Me 1/2020: I hope Bloomberg stays in to cannibalize Biden
Me 2/2020: I hope Biden stays in to cannibalize Bloomberg
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
11,162
couldn't find any second choice stats but here are the favorables for the candidates from this poll

"Sanders (71 percent favorable, 25 percent unfavorable) and Warren (71 percent favorable, 23 percent unfavorable) had the highest favorability among the candidates. They were followed by Biden (68 percent favorable, 28 percent unfavorable), Steyer (64 percent favorable, 23 percent unfavorable), Klobuchar (62 percent favorable, 17 percent unfavorable) and Buttigieg (59 percent favorable, 25 percent unfavorable)"

Favorables really have nothing to do with second choice. But they are interesting.

While we're talking favorables, I do kinda get interested in where they're going every once in a while to depress myself about how shitty long primaries are:
And this is why Bloomer would suck against Trump:
Source:
Where you can find famous people's favorables.
 

Dahbomb

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,150
Way too many candidates are like hovering around the sub 15% mark which means debate is essential again where someone can make huge gains and take from another candidate. Another Warren -> Klob situation waiting to happen again.
 

phanphare

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,145
also interesting

"Forty-eight percent of respondents identified as liberal, compared to 36 percent moderate and 9 percent conservative. One-quarter of those surveyed came from a union household."

though I'd caution against drawing conclusions, people have been getting way too dumbed down with the whole progressive vs. moderate lane thing in terms of just combining support like that's in any way how this works
 

Doran

Member
Jun 9, 2018
836
Biden totally assumed momentum and media coverage wouldn't affect his "strongholds" and "firewalls".
 

Ziltoidia 9

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,304
My ranking on how serious I find the candidates to actually make a public option highest priority:

Warren >> Biden (it would be an advancement in his ACA)> Pete (would try but give up pretty fast)>>Klo (might actually try)

Also, News Flash, they are going to cry SOCIALISM even if a moderate wanting a public option is the nom.

To me, if people want to join a non-viable's position, you should join Warren at the Caucus.
 

Basileus777

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,244
New Jersey
Way too many candidates are like hovering around the sub 15% mark which means debate is essential again where someone can make huge gains and take from another candidate. Another Warren -> Klob situation waiting to happen again.
You need to be viable to benefit from realignment. Bernie/Biden (or whoever is in 2nd) will reap the benefits. Only 2 or 3 people getting delegates is good for Bernie!