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Who's Going to Win South Carolina?

  • Joe Biden

    Votes: 585 39.2%
  • Bernie Sanders

    Votes: 853 57.2%
  • Elizabeth Warren

    Votes: 24 1.6%
  • Pete Buttigieg

    Votes: 7 0.5%
  • THE KLOBBERER

    Votes: 16 1.1%
  • Tom Steyer

    Votes: 6 0.4%

  • Total voters
    1,491
  • Poll closed .
Status
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Ziltoidia 9

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,141
Anyone have a site that is up that shows the map with results? I know there isn't any yet, but I was just wanting to have the tab up.
 

lmcfigs

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
12,091
So apparently both Joe Biden and Julian Castro have been spotted giving speeches at caucus sites, which is illegal (?)
 

bye

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,424
Phoenix, AZ
The more I think about it, the less convinced I am that Florida is lost with Bernie as a nominee. It's far worse for him in a primary than in the general.

In a primary wherein more left-leaning olds and Cubans can shop around for a candidate who occupies that center-left lane, Bernie will of course be dead last on the list of options. This makes it a nearly impossible primary. In the general though? Snowbirds and conservative Cubans/Venezuelans were always going to be lost. That's the case for any Dem as those people are already in love with Trump. That is not a knock against Bernie. Trump is incredibly unpopular among the left, and I believe that a huge segment of those unfavorable Democratic demos will still turn out for him, even if they wouldn't dream of supporting him in the primaries.

Here are the big questions with Florida as I see it:
  1. Would left-leaning Hispanics really prefer Trump to Bernie?
  2. Would a Bernie nomination significantly depress turnout among left-leaning Hispanics ages 35+?
  3. Would a Bernie nomination significantly boost negative turnout amongst Florida Republicans to the extent that it cancels out potential turnout increases among Democrats?
I still wouldn't expect a Bernie win in Florida because these are all very big questions with no clear answer. But I'm not totally convinced that we're as lost a cause as others suggest. It's always a fool's errand to think you've got Florida figured out.

the bigger delusion is people assuming Florida has a good chance for anyone not Bernie.

I honestly feel like we are better off putting more resources into Ohio/PA/AZ than trying to be competitive in Florida again.
 

Mekanos

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 17, 2018
44,176


entrance poll data. Those hispanic numbers, holy shit


Me: I'm not gonna watch the caucus, it's too stressful

Me when the early numbers are good for Bernie:

Bernie-Goku-1.png
 

Trice

Banned
Nov 3, 2018
2,653
Croatia
Damn. Sanders at 60% with voters under 45 and with over 45 he's competitive and tied for 1st with Biden

Looking fucking good!
 

Deleted member 31817

Nov 7, 2017
30,876
the bigger delusion is people assuming Florida has a good chance for anyone not Bernie.

I honestly feel like we are better off putting more resources into Ohio/PA/AZ than trying to be competitive in Florida again.
I feel like Ohio and FL are pretty much equally out of reach, Ohio even moreso.
 

Kusagari

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,433
the bigger delusion is people assuming Florida has a good chance for anyone not Bernie.

I honestly feel like we are better off putting more resources into Ohio/PA/AZ than trying to be competitive in Florida again.

You could make a serious argument Bloomberg might be the best candidate to win FL, but I still think he would be trash everywhere else.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,466
I live in Florida and am very pessimistic after Gillum and Nelson both flopped. I already voted Bernie in the primary and got my parents to do so as well, but I highly doubt anyone will be able to flip it in the General.
 

Psychonaut

Member
Jan 11, 2018
3,207
While it's true left-wing voters obviously hate Trump and want him out, I think that sort of thinking would in theory lock it up for any swing state when it isn't that simple. Florida is just too snowbirdy for me to feel comfortable entertaining a Bernie win. There are states Bernie can win thanks to Latino turnout but I don't think Florida is one of them.
Right, it's always more complicated than "Trump bad." In PA, Bernie is going to have to hammer on uplifting the working class. Other places he'll have to focus on other aspects of his platform like criminal justice reform or Medicare for All in order to build his base. But Florida... doesn't really care about the issues when it comes to Bernie. His performance is based entirely on turnout (as opposed to just being largely based on turnout elsewhere). As I said, I still doubt that he'll take it. But there's a path.
 

spx54

Member
Mar 21, 2019
3,273


if this holds up, this is going to be a decisive win for Bernie.

Bernie and Biden tied with older voters is unexpected and would be very good for Bernie
 

Ziltoidia 9

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,141
Bernie should walk away with this with 30-35%, depending on viability numbers and how well pete/biden do in rural white areas (those areas are more apt to get more state delegates.
 

Mekanos

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 17, 2018
44,176
I have Biden at #2 if that POC support holds. Caucuses make that difficult to predict though.
 

Surfinn

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,590
USA
CNN saying Bernie/Pete/Biden within 1% of each other in terms of moderate votes, seems incredibly good for Bernie
 

SolarPowered

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,211
the real race today is going to be uncle Joe, Butti and liz trying to claim 2nd place lmao
The real race will be for anyone besides Bernie to get any delegates at all. Overperforming for Bernie could mean 40% or more. That is a fucking disaster for anyone trying to hit that 15% cutoff.
If only Florida just gave the panhandle to Alabama. It'd be solid blue.
I was thinking that very same thing yesterday. Poor Alabama deserves more beachfront property imo.
 

HipsterMorty

alt account
Banned
Jan 25, 2020
901
I'll be honest I hated onions until I was in my late 20s. But I am a convert and I now see the error of my old ways. Digestive issues are a legit reason to not like onions though.
 

Kayla

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,316
Latinos really love Bernie. What a nice diverse coalition he is building. Hopefully this kills the Bernie bro stuff
 

lmcfigs

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
12,091
Bernie gets 21% of the moderate vote. Warren gets 6%
52% of the liberal vote. Warren gets 17%

U n I t y C a n d i d a t e
 
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