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Who's Going to Win South Carolina?

  • Joe Biden

    Votes: 585 39.2%
  • Bernie Sanders

    Votes: 853 57.2%
  • Elizabeth Warren

    Votes: 24 1.6%
  • Pete Buttigieg

    Votes: 7 0.5%
  • THE KLOBBERER

    Votes: 16 1.1%
  • Tom Steyer

    Votes: 6 0.4%

  • Total voters
    1,491
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ottaro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,527
Yeah, I have a feeling Bernie will either beat Joe by 1 point in SC, or at least be in second place within 3 points — which wouldn't be much of a loss at all knowing how well Bernie is expected to do in Super Tuesday.
Yep, and, like someone else mentioned, many ST states have early voting so a lot of people already made their vote solely in the wake of multiple Bernie wins. It's hard to imagine last night's debate or Biden winning SC having much of an impact on how well Bernie performs on Tuesday one way or the other.

I won't be stressing unless Bernie under-performs on Tuesday.
 

HipsterMorty

alt account
Banned
Jan 25, 2020
901
So there was some interesting data that I think we missed from that NBC/Marist SC Poll that showed Biden 27%/Bernie 23%.
CNN said:
1) Roughly 1 in 3 Biden backers in the poll (32%) said they might vote for another candidate on Saturday. Just more than 1 in 10 Sanders supporters (12%) said the same. That's broadly consistent with what we've seen throughout this primary to date; Sanders has the most committed support, while Biden's has been among the least committed.

2) This poll was in the field from February 18 to February 21. On February 19, the top six Democrats appeared at a debate in Las Vegas. Because of that, the pollsters broke out interviews they conducted before the debate and those they conducted after it. In the pre-debate sample, Biden led Sanders by 10. In the post-debate sample, the two candidates were dead even. That suggests momentum was moving in Sanders' direction even before he won a surprisingly sweeping victory in the Nevada caucuses on Saturday.

3) Among voters with a clear candidate preference or those who had already voted, more than 7 in 10 (72%) Bernie-backers said they "strongly supported" him. Among those with preference for Biden that strong support was at 61%. Again, a clear passion/enthusiasm gap there.

4) Biden is still the first choice of black voters, but Sanders -- and billionaire businessman Tom Steyer -- are holding their own. Biden takes 35% among black voters to 20% for Sanders and 19% for Steyer. That's a stunning contrast to the 72 percentage-point margin that Sanders lost black voters to Hillary Clinton by in the 2016 South Carolina primary. For Biden to win, he badly needs to run up the score among black voters -- especially because he is losing whites to Sanders in this poll by 8 points. If Sanders and Steyer can combine to win 4 (or so) out of every 10 black votes in Saturday, Biden's path to victory get rockier.

Also, 538 posted a pre/post debate analysis that showed Sanders came out of the debate with more voters considering voting for him, and less voters considering Biden. Ultimately though the pre/post debate movement seems to be minimal. I don't think the debate will have much effect on the outcome Saturday.

Edit: I also think Steyer having a share of black support could end up hurting Biden way more than it hurts Sanders. Steyer plays well among the 55+ crowd ONLY, and that's also Biden's base. Sanders got the young black voters on lockdown, I'm having hope that Sanders could still squeak by with a win on Saturday.
 
Oct 27, 2017
12,978
Sticking with my original vote.. Bernie is gonna take SC on the backs of young black voters who, unlike their parents, still have hope for a better country.
It's not that they don't have hope, it's that they realize that the progressive changes we all want aren't as simple or easy as younger generations expect/demand it to be due to the numerous factors working against our interests in the American political system that no one man or woman alone (no, not even Bernie) can change.
 

Vinsanity

Member
Nov 2, 2018
280
I have an increasingly bad feeling that this is going to a brokered convention with Sanders as a slight plurality over Biden & Bloomberg.
 

Bradbatross

Member
Mar 17, 2018
14,216
So there was some interesting data that I think we missed from that NBC/Marist SC Poll that showed Biden 27%/Bernie 23%.


Also, 538 posted a pre/post debate analysis that showed Sanders came out of the debate with more voters considering voting for him, and less voters considering Biden. Ultimately though the pre/post debate movement seems to be minimal. I don't think the debate will have much effect on the outcome Saturday.

Edit: I also think Steyer having a share of black support could end up hurting Biden way more than it hurts Sanders. Steyer plays well among the 55+ crowd ONLY, and that's also Biden's base. Sanders got the young black voters on lockdown, I'm having hope that Sanders could still squeak by with a win on Saturday.
I have absolutely no idea what to expect on Saturday.
 

RDreamer

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,106
It's not that they don't have hope, it's that they realize that the progressive changes we all want aren't as simple or easy as younger generations expect/demand it to be due to the numerous factors working against our interests in the American political system that no one man or woman alone (no, not even Bernie) can change.
And Biden's platform, as conservative as it is compared to Sanders, still represents a better country in the future.
 

cj_iwakura

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,195
Coral Springs, FL
It's not that they don't have hope, it's that they realize that the progressive changes we all want aren't as simple or easy as younger generations expect/demand it to be due to the numerous factors working against our interests in the American political system that no one man or woman alone (no, not even Bernie) can change.
At least he'll put in an effort, which is more than anyone else on that stage will try.
 

Serene

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
52,532
Serene after thinking about it Bloomberg actually has a good shot at being the brokered nom. It simply is a matter of outlasting the other candidates. We will know more after super Tuesday but if Biden drops out before the brokered convention then Bloomberg is the most likely nominee imo.

I think there is zero chance that Biden drops before the convention if there is any chance it's brokered.
 

Zeroro

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,408
It's not that they don't have hope, it's that they realize that the progressive changes we all want aren't as simple or easy as younger generations expect/demand it to be due to the numerous factors working against our interests in the American political system that no one man or woman alone (no, not even Bernie) can change.
I think most people voting for Bernie get that. He talked yesterday in a post-debate interview after being asked about how he'll get his policies enacted by continuing to rally people at a grassroots level, to either pressure their representatives or vote in people who already support the policies he does. Of course it's not easy, and of course Bernie can't do it alone. He's certainly said as much.
 

Nilou

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,715
Just got back from early voting after work. Voted for Warren, she's a longshot now unfortunately but at least I can say I tried/did my part for her.
 

Powdered Egg

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
17,070
I'm not thrilled at the prospect but Buttigieg makes the most sense as a compromise VP out of the candidates currently running.

He's young and entrenched into the party pretty well. They'll want someone that can take the reins in 2028 (2024??) and beyond.
Lmao Pete's future never crossed my mind before this. We're going to see a bloody Pete vs AOC 2028 primary.
 

Serene

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
52,532
It depends on if he runs out of money or not. The idea is the Bloomberg just can go forever even if he doesn't have support.

If the feeling is that the convention will be brokered I think he'll find a way to make it there because he stands the best chance by far at benefitting from that. Even if that means coasting with little activity even more than he's doing now.
 

Volimar

volunteer forum janitor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
38,463
I have an increasingly bad feeling that this is going to a brokered convention with Sanders as a slight plurality over Biden & Bloomberg.


I really hope not. The candidate needs to win resoundingly to help motivate voters. Whoever it is, if they just limp to getting the nomination it's not going to instill much confidence in their ability to win.
 
Oct 29, 2017
13,470
Do we have any reason to REALLY suspect we are headed towards a brokered convention at this stage in the primary? This kind of just feels too early to be so nervous about that. Tuesday will change a lot, and put us a lot closer towards what we should be seeing going forward.
 

Rats

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,112
Do we have any reason to REALLY suspect we are headed towards a brokered convention at this stage in the primary? This kind of just feels too early to be so nervous about that. Tuesday will change a lot, and put us a lot closer towards what we should be seeing going forward.
538 gives equal odds to a Bernie majority and a brokered convention. Thing is, even at a brokered convention Bernie will almost certainly have a commanding lead in delegates and the party would be committing political suicide to give the nom to somebody else.
 

OldGamer

Member
Jul 6, 2019
389
Bloomberg and Biden are definitely the only others equipped financially and polling wise to make it the last phase of the primary. Biden will likely struggle more than Bloomberg though, unless Bloomberg simply throws too much money with too little to show for it and is forced to ease off.

Though if March or April voting sags Biden too much, he may simply drop out to save face. I believe he can be dignified in the face of defeat.
 

fontguy

Avenger
Oct 8, 2018
16,154
Do we have any reason to REALLY suspect we are headed towards a brokered convention at this stage in the primary? This kind of just feels too early to be so nervous about that. Tuesday will change a lot, and put us a lot closer towards what we should be seeing going forward.

Yes?

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Primary?

FiveThirtyEight's polls and forecast for the 2020 Democratic presidential primary election.
 

smisk

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,001
Just because no one gets the 1990 delegates needed doesn't mean the convention will be brokered and go the second vote with superdelegates etc. I think the most likely scenario is that Bernie has 1700-1800 and his closest rival has like half that. If that's the case I fully expect enough people will give up their delegates to push him over the edge, even before the first vote.
Even Pelosi indicated today that the Dems will get behind Sanders.
 

jstevenson

Developer at Insomniac Games
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
2,042
Burbank CA
Do we have any reason to REALLY suspect we are headed towards a brokered convention at this stage in the primary? This kind of just feels too early to be so nervous about that. Tuesday will change a lot, and put us a lot closer towards what we should be seeing going forward.

based on current results and state polling and the amount of candidates.... uh yes?
 

Finale Fireworker

Love each other or die trying.
Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,711
United States
Just got back from early voting after work. Voted for Warren, she's a longshot now unfortunately but at least I can say I tried/did my part for her.
I think Warren is a great candidate who deserves so much better than she's getting. I don't think I'll ever regret supporting her. Even though she's not looking great in this race I hope her activity in American politics continues still for many years.
 

Terra Firma

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,235
9ljwi1uhz9j41.jpg


I really, really dislike Pete.
 

Terra Firma

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,235
Someone said he's the Ted Cruz of the Democratic Party in terms of likeability and being smarmy and I couldn't agree more.
I mean, I wouldn't hate him as much if he actually had a point. Like for example, when Warren is interrupting someone, she's making a legitimate point and doesn't want someone to get away with bull, doing what the inadequate moderators should be doing, but Pete just loves to hear his own voice.
 

jviggy43

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
18,184
Comparing Pete to Ted Cruz is insulting to Cruz. Hes at least accomplished a successful political career. He also got away as the zodiac killer.
 

Sei

Member
Oct 28, 2017
5,712
LA
Lmao Pete's future never crossed my mind before this. We're going to see a bloody Pete vs AOC 2028 primary.

I feel like Pete might be gone from elected politics by them. If he's not successful this run. His political message is not that impressive, it might sound dismissive, but he's still in this because of the billionaires funding him. Much better candidates already departed because of lack of money. His speaking and analysis is very good, I could easily see him working for some corporate media apparatus. But he would have to develop his middle of the road politics a lot more before he could take on an AOC with plenty of political experience and backing by that time.

But then again anything could happen.
 

Method

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,443
Pete would have absolutely no chance against AOC in 4 years, especially in a debate, even if he gets elected to a higher position in Indiana somewhere and gains more experience
 

Vector

Member
Feb 28, 2018
6,656
AOC already dismantled Pete several times on Twitter unprompted - she clearly hates his guts and would pulverize him on a debate stage.
 

Orayn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,959
538 gives equal odds to a Bernie majority and a brokered convention. Thing is, even at a brokered convention Bernie will almost certainly have a commanding lead in delegates and the party would be committing political suicide to give the nom to somebody else.
I want to believe otherwise but my gut says the Dem establishment would rather destroy the party and hand the future of the country to fascism than let Bernie run. If it's a brokered convention they might just doom us all.
 
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