That's my read as well.
Knocking on doors has proven to be insanely ineffective and overemphasized per volunteer hour. I forget what the actual statistic was but the ratio of doors knocked on to people actually changing their vote or deciding to turn out because of the door knock is absurdly low.
yeah now that I think about it, it is a pretty bad attitude that I expressed here.
Pete and Bloom have been doing their best to make Biden look extremely attractive as of late in comparison. As much as I don't like Biden he has never came across as insincere on what he plans to do in office unlike them.
Minnesota always has high turnout, 2016 was not unique in that regard. Hillary, however, was a uniquely disliked candidate here. Bernie trounced her in the caucus.
Yeah, that's what I figured. Has anybody really drilled down what methods are best?
the idea that Biden actually would be a weak candidate and once the race starts would decline in the polls, was like majority opinion on this site.
Wisconsin is gone for democrats in National elections. It's red now.
Messaging has nothing to do with getting legislation passed once in office. The reason the ACA wasn't better was not killing the fillibuster.
Then the only hope is Arizona flips, because there is 0% change Trump loses otherwise. I don't see Democrats winning Ohio or Florida no matter who wins.
If I had to guess who would know this I'd ask Kirblar since he's a deep statistics nerd. But I think that calls were slightly more effective, though I'm not sure they were that effective either.
Knocking on doors is ineffective in the micro but effective in the macro if you have the volunteer support to turn things out. It works better on a local level when you can act as a direct ambassador for your candidate and could actually possibly the candidate themselves to follow up.
You're not wrong, but the sad part is that both arguments can be credibly made. I personally don't believe in either.
I watched the ACA come together in 2009/2010 intently. It was not a matter of "not trying" when Pelosi whipped the Public Option. The problem was that the Senate didn't understand the precariousness of the moment and the need to kill the filibuster.
Biden has run the laziest campaign since Giuliani in 2008. He has no organization or money in any Super Tuesday state. If he's somehow the nominee, the last thing we need to worry about his potential presidency.
This thread goes into some of it- the "door knocking works for local stuff, not for nationalized elections" take seems accurate- https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1055916545065578497?s=20
Why is that then? Did that much really change with Trump?
It's been trending red for a while now.
Republican public officials weakening labor unions in the state and the anti-trade, anti-globalization sentiments in the state being capitalized on by Republicans. Voter suppression plays a part there too. The gutting of the voting rights act is fucking democrats in a lot of midwest states.
It's hard to ignore the trend though. Perhaps it's not entirely a lost cause but I'd put the chances of dems winning it decidedly behind them taking a state like Arizona. Or even potentially Florida.
