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Democratic Presidential Primary |February OT| It Can't be Worse than Iowa, Right? (Discussion Guidelines in OP)
- Thread starter Poodlestrike
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And Iowa still did not publish the final results, that one delegate difference between Bernie and Pete is still up in the air. As I said, if Bernie gets the nomination, maybe that will be enough momentum for him to win Iowa.
IDK if that's gonna be enough. Feel like he's gonna have to win the general in 2024 to really sew up Iowa.
Just voted for Bernie at 7:15. Poll wasn't very busy. New machines worked well, it prints out a paper ballot you then feed into another machine that looks a bit like a shredder but is supposed to scan the ballot. I like that the selection machine seems completely isolated.
I'm predicting +18
36 - Biden
18 - Steyer
15 - Bernie (barely scraping viability)
11 - Warren
7 - Bloomberg
7 - Buttigieg
4 - Klobuchar
2 - Others
Gonna be a fucking bumpy ride through ST and beyond :/
I'm predicting bad things but I don't think Steyer will come 2nd. I think it's likely his name recognition and his ad saturation likely inflated his polling numbers.
Jesus this sent me down a rabbit hole.
I discovered that Bernie Sanders directed a documentary about Eugene V Debs in which he does the voice of Eugene V Debs.
I also discovered a folk album he recorded in 1987 called We Shall Overcome. You can buy it on iTunes.
Flashback: Bernie Sanders' 1987 Folk Album
Check out the lost 1987 folk album from Bernie Sanders "We Shall Overcome."Get the full story at: http://rol.st/1lzogrySubscribe to Rolling Stone on YouTube:...
www.youtube.com
I think Steyer will only drop after Super Tuesday. He will probably come in 3rd in SC. No point for anyone to drop until after Tuesday anyway. If Warren loses her own home state she needs to drop.
How the hell does Biden get a bunch of momentum to win ST states off of 1 possible win in a state he was always projected to win meanwhile he's done poorly in the 3 previous states? I don't get it.
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"We need a narrative to counter Bernie. Look, Biden's up 0.5 in national polls #Joementum!"
Because that's the most recent result that will be fresh in peoples minds. Also I think everyone was getting a little ahead of themselves saying that Biden was done when things have barely even started.
I'm not really sure you can say Biden has regained traction in a poll that started before he collapsed lol.
This was a month-long poll. Bernie is currently leading Virginia.
I think the momentum thing is overrated a little bit in this equation. Firstly there is some evidence to believe Bloomberg is falling and his voters are now going to Biden. Secondly we are heading into the biggest state yet.
Current polling has Biden potentially being unviable in multiple ST states and trailing Bernie in the majority of them. A win in SC isn't going to drastically change that. He has no money and next to no organization or advertising in these states.
Biden can have the South.
Bernie gets the rest of the country.
... this is a path for Biden to win though? If he racks up 20%+ margins in the south and stays competitive in other states then he gets the nomination.
I'm calling Biden +15. Steyer is a nice guy but I think when the rubber hits the road, most of his votes will transfer to Biden.
I don't think he can get that kind of huge margin, mainly because Bloomberg is still carpet-bombing much of the states where he'd roll with ads. If Bloomberg is on the ballot, I'd expect Biden's win margins to be 5% at most.
I don't think he can get that kind of huge margin, mainly because Bloomberg is still carpet-bombing much of the states where he'd roll with ads. If Bloomberg is on the ballot, I'd expect Biden's win margins to be 5% at most.
He isn't. If the frontrunner wasn't so weak he would be but two wins in early states combined with 538's model has made Bernie supporters a bit overconfident. Biden can bounce back and win.
Right I don't think theres a great path for him if Bloomberg is still around but if Bloomberg drops out after ST then its a completely different discussion entirely.
Nah, he's done. No money, no enthusiasm, no advertising, no organization. It'll be clear on Tuesday.
Just posting to say that I've basically been nodding in agreement with your posts; I'm also a huge fan of Sanders but early-voted for Warren in the primary. I've been surprised with the extent of criticism of her from the left; her campaign has made a lot of mistakes and but I thought there was more people like me who broadly supported the majority of both of their platforms and made the choice between the two based on how they'd go about implementing their plans, and how we identify with their underlying ideologies. Maybe it's reading too much into the tone of internet discourse but I feel like if/when Warren drops out I'll be like "Bummer, but Bernie's a good dude and as good as second choice as I'll ever get" and I hope that in the unlikely event the roles are reversed, that more people would consider her in a similar way
uhhh Biden would have to get a bigger delegate net gain than Hillary in 2016, it's rather unlikely (she gained +25 from SC, Biden is currently 30 behind)
popular vote sure cause Iowa/Nevada are caucuses I guess
I think people have this concern that if Biden wins huge in SC it'll trigger a huge shift in ST states. I remain unconvinced. Obviously Biden will have a couple days of solid coverage for a big win, but he's not currently campaigning anywhere else. I think California alone is going to hurt the Biden comeback narrative.
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