Not many of us remember '68 in Chicago (as in, none of us), but isn't that what happened? And then there were riots?
Personally not worried, but maybe precedent has some worrying.
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Democratic Presidential Primary |February OT| It Can't be Worse than Iowa, Right? (Discussion Guidelines in OP)
- Thread starter Poodlestrike
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Personally not worried, but maybe precedent has some worrying.
Anyone who thinks those are the worst things said on social media by either group, has obviously never entered AOC or Ilhan's Twitter feeds.
It's so hard to know who really is a twitter user, if they are actually supporters, or if they are just trying to make a group look bad. With that said, it wouldn't surprise me that some would be assholes. There was alot of Flame at Warren. Everywhere from just an emote of a snake to ripping her bad. I think the best case would be for the average supporter to not jump in on the dog pile. So, I hope they just become more level headed.
I don't think Bloomberg is gonna win the nomination. It's either Bernie clinches enough delegates or we go brokered. Therefor its basically Bernie... or bust.
All memes about moderate voltron aside, Bernie has the majority of primary voters in the specific circumstance that the moderate vote is getting split up by like 5+ other candidates.
During the brokered convention where delegates are allowed to vote however they want, are a majority of them progressive or moderate?
I can unironically see it now... "while Bernie won narrowly in many states, we felt that it would be a disservice to the overwhelming number of supporters who voiced their support for someone less radical who would unite the party."
The other candidates are very weak by my metric. Unironically I think Klobuchar is the only feisty one on stage, and she can't really dig into Mike because his weakness is the exact same as hers - bad record with minorities.
All I'm saying is - don't be shocked if Mike comes out smelling like roses.
While LBJ and Richard Daley did angle for Humphrey to take the convention, which did result in riots, Humphrey was the candidate with the plurality of delegates at the time, so it's not a 1:1 comparison here. Also Kennedy was assassinated during the primary so that created a mess with the delegates he had been allotted. Knowing this, why would the Democratic party not pick Sanders if he had a plurality of delegates? They know this would blow up the party.
When was the last time super delegates were used to rob a candidate with the plurality of delegates?
We put too much emphasis on polls. Have we considered another very important factor, athletic ability, for which we have a clear frontrunner.
What even could possibly make you think that Bloomberg would ever ignite the democratic base to show up for him? There is nothing that indicates that he would excite the base or even rope in new voters in any large capacity. It would completely depress the progressive wing of the party's turnout, and despite Trump being a hypocrite, dont think for a second that he wouldn't use Bloomberg's racist record against him. He will do it. AND. IT. WILL. WORK.
What do people think any candidates chances of beating Trump are after a contested convention? Cause I don't see the outlook as rosy if things head that way no matter who emerges.
biden will challenge Bernie to push ups at the next debate to settle things once and for all
The superdelegates will go to the one who has a plurality first, they're meant to give a plurality candidate a boost to outright win. If that doesn't put them in a spot to outright win, horse trading fuckery begins.
biden will challenge Bernie to push ups at the next debate to settle things once and for all
Just because there aren't recent examples (to my knowledge) doesn't change the fact that they exist explicitly for this purpose. If they didn't, there would be no reason to have them.
In many ways Bloomberg is getting and easier path than Trump got by the media. At least Trump had constant negative coverage. It was free media play, but it was anti-trump non-da-less.
They actually don't exist to over-ride pluralities, they exist to turn pluralities into majorities so that a contested convention can be avoided. Of course, the plurality in this case might be so thin that that doesn't work.
Lotta people not hitting viability. Wonder where their second choices go?
Then again I'm guessing that has a 5+% MoE so who knows.
This image is a roller coaster of emotion from laughing to sadness.
People on the ground in NV have been saying he's a serious threat to do good in the state.
I feel like Nevada might go very much like Iowa went. Though it will be another test to see if THE MODERATES are still trying to shoot down Bernie. Since it is a caucus we will get weird viability things happening again.
This makes no sense. They could easily remove the threshold necessary and just go off of who gets the most delegates, if all they wanted to accomplish with it was to ensure the front runner wins. Additionally super delegates have no rule that they must vote for the front runner which is another caveat that makes what youre saying not true. They exist solely to allow the party a chance at shifting who wins the nom if they were unhappy with who got the most delegates in a close race. If they didn't, there would be provisions that the super delegates would HAVE to vote for the person with the plurality, and there is no such rule that mandates that.
Please please please be true
jesus christ the 2nd allignments are going to give me a heart attack
The main reason is what I said, the secondary reason is indeed this. I would be shocked if in the case of a contested convention (please, please, please no contested convention) the supers do not go to the plurality winner in the first round.
Almost want Biden to win Nevada so that Bloomer's vote share tanks.
62% not Bernie. Guess that means third place wins or something
Yep, our main push is going to be closer to election
I've been signing myself and anybody I can to do some volunteering around here.
It is not the 1980s. It's not at all clear that America has the same reflexive reaction to socialism 12 years into an economic alignment downward.
couldn't find any second choice stats but here are the favorables for the candidates from this poll
"Sanders (71 percent favorable, 25 percent unfavorable) and Warren (71 percent favorable, 23 percent unfavorable) had the highest favorability among the candidates. They were followed by Biden (68 percent favorable, 28 percent unfavorable), Steyer (64 percent favorable, 23 percent unfavorable), Klobuchar (62 percent favorable, 17 percent unfavorable) and Buttigieg (59 percent favorable, 25 percent unfavorable)"
Sanders holds lead heading into Nevada’s Democratic caucuses, poll finds
The Vermont senator leads the field by a solid margin among likely Democratic caucusgoers going into the four-day early voting period, a Review-Journal poll shows.
www.reviewjournal.com
Favorables really have nothing to do with second choice. But they are interesting.couldn't find any second choice stats but here are the favorables for the candidates from this poll
"Sanders (71 percent favorable, 25 percent unfavorable) and Warren (71 percent favorable, 23 percent unfavorable) had the highest favorability among the candidates. They were followed by Biden (68 percent favorable, 28 percent unfavorable), Steyer (64 percent favorable, 23 percent unfavorable), Klobuchar (62 percent favorable, 17 percent unfavorable) and Buttigieg (59 percent favorable, 25 percent unfavorable)"
Sanders holds lead heading into Nevada’s Democratic caucuses, poll finds
The Vermont senator leads the field by a solid margin among likely Democratic caucusgoers going into the four-day early voting period, a Review-Journal poll shows.
While we're talking favorables, I do kinda get interested in where they're going every once in a while to depress myself about how shitty long primaries are:
And this is why Bloomer would suck against Trump:
Source:
Where you can find famous people's favorables.
yeah I know but in lieu of actual second choice options it's at least some kind of nugget
I'm prepared for fuckery regardless. caucuses man, not even once
also interesting
"Forty-eight percent of respondents identified as liberal, compared to 36 percent moderate and 9 percent conservative. One-quarter of those surveyed came from a union household."
though I'd caution against drawing conclusions, people have been getting way too dumbed down with the whole progressive vs. moderate lane thing in terms of just combining support like that's in any way how this works
"Forty-eight percent of respondents identified as liberal, compared to 36 percent moderate and 9 percent conservative. One-quarter of those surveyed came from a union household."
though I'd caution against drawing conclusions, people have been getting way too dumbed down with the whole progressive vs. moderate lane thing in terms of just combining support like that's in any way how this works
Bloomberg below 10%? That's interesting. I hope this turns out to be the case. Sanders and every other candidate needs to hit Mike hard.
My ranking on how serious I find the candidates to actually make a public option highest priority:
Warren >> Biden (it would be an advancement in his ACA)> Pete (would try but give up pretty fast)>>Klo (might actually try)
Also, News Flash, they are going to cry SOCIALISM even if a moderate wanting a public option is the nom.
To me, if people want to join a non-viable's position, you should join Warren at the Caucus.
Warren >> Biden (it would be an advancement in his ACA)> Pete (would try but give up pretty fast)>>Klo (might actually try)
Also, News Flash, they are going to cry SOCIALISM even if a moderate wanting a public option is the nom.
To me, if people want to join a non-viable's position, you should join Warren at the Caucus.
You need to be viable to benefit from realignment. Bernie/Biden (or whoever is in 2nd) will reap the benefits. Only 2 or 3 people getting delegates is good for Bernie!
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