I mean this year was unfortunate.. but I honestly did not expect to see Monster Hunter on this platform, let alone have it do so well, let alone have it hit game pass and continue to do well. Bamco wasn't THAT much of a lock throughout the gen, and there are things that could easily have skipped still. KH3. But yes, indie and those medium-size Japan-focus games aren't coming over. And then there's a few real big AAA titles that do decent import and PS4 sales, and really probably should be ported. I see a few potential paths.
1) Nothing changes. The niche Japan games stay niche. No one really notices all THAT much. The AAA games never come over, people notice, but it's status quo, so whatever. This might happen if Japan as a center of game development diminishes in influence. That's hard to fathom right now, but it was hard to fathom Japan not continuing to dominate electronics design and manufacturing some decades ago. It's still important, it's nowhere near where it was.
2) MS could shell out cash for individual games and devs like it did in 360. That was helped by PS3 not being an easy console to develop for. Combined, there was some decent support from devs and publishers. This didn't seem to be really be that mirrored in sales, by and large. I think the audience on Xbox is in a different place today. The resurgence of the PS4 and the ease of global communication makes selling formerly niche games much more viable. I think this could happen (perhaps alongside the creation of an Asian hub and picking up some devs), but it doesn't feel particularly sustainable long term. MS knows from its time with Win Store, 360, etc. that you can't buy long term support. It just doesn't work.
3) MS changes its image and sales pitch in Japan. This could happen a few ways.
3.1) One way is to entirely drop the Xbox/MS brand in the territory, choosing to create a new subsidiary brand just for Japan relations - both for consumers in the region and to work with devs and pubs. This certainly isn't unheard of and MS and Sony are already doing far worse dark secret things to get their foot into China.
3.2) Alternatively, MS could buy a well known Japanese publisher institution. Sega makes the most sense to me. They have a significant publishing arm, they have studios worldwide, they have name recognition and brand history, and they have a fair few beloved IPs. But, they're not exactly quietly amassing a fortune with all of that. Many of their studios are struggling to put out stuff that really sells. Imagine if MS bought Sega, kept the name, retooled and rebranded their consoles as Sega boxes (in a strange reverse of the Famicon that would probably be a great collector's edition abroad too). Accompany that with very good initial support of Sega properties, and that may transform Xbox's position (if not reputation per se) amongst the public and devs.
3.3) Xbox could change their entire product pitch in Japan to woo customers and intrigue devs. Things like a mobile-focused asian division. Or a focus on other smaller, portable devices like Switch or portability services like xCloud. Xbox consoles aren't really going to sell in Japan, which means lots of devs won't bother. But what if Xbox built a presence apart from just selling boxes?
Realistically? Japan is a niche market. The one tool I could see making a difference for devs without an exclusivity deal is Game Pass allowing smaller devs to realistically get paid enough to make porting a low-risk affair, with all the potential upside of exposure and engagement.
