Digital Foundry: PlayStation 5 - When can Sony truly deliver a generational leap in power?

[Inuhanyou]

Looking at the comments, people are all over the map. Someone said (paraphrase) "they're stealing money from people because it hasn't been 8 years yet" and people are upvoting that.

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so basically people are being dumb again....i should have known.

But yeah, an absolute minimum 8tflop GPU with 16-24 GDDR6 RAM and an 8 core Zen CPU at 7nm is pretty obvious...i think they will try and delay as long as possible to lower costs as much as possible, which is why i think 2020 is most likely. But at the same time i think Sony will intentionally go lower on the GPU scale(around 10tflop) because they likey will be planning another Pro iteration at the halfway point with more GPU power to take advantage of even higher resolutions and visual refinements.

Even 10 tflops in a closed box will do things people have never seen before, especially considering pro and X are largely just running Xbox one and PS4 base games

I am really not convinced that Sony would be able to offer a Ryzen CPU, 24GB of GDDR5 / 5X / 6 / HBM2, a 12 TF GPU and an SSD for £350 - which is £70 less than Xbox One X retailed for - just 2 years after the X.

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That is how technology works. As it leapfrogs other technologies, things get better. Jaguar is old news at this point, so is the 8GB ram capacity, and even the GPU power can be upgraded. Nobody is talking about SSD heh

 

[The Albatross]

Don't really care about the specs, I just want everything to be backwards compatible within reason, with cross-generational cross play within reason. I'll happily upgrade hardware, but I want a consistent platform from device to device.

 

[II JumPeR I]

I think the thing to think about is this:

Xbox One X
Launch: November 2017
Retail Price: £420
Specs: Jaguar CPU (albeit upclocked and with a fancy vapour chamber cooling system), 12GB of GDDR5, 6TF GPU, mechanical HDD (so NOT an SSD)

I am really not convinced that Sony would be able to offer a Ryzen CPU, 24GB of GDDR5 / 5X / 6 / HBM2, a 12 TF GPU and an SSD for £350 - which is £70 less than Xbox One X retailed for - just 2 years after the X. That would represent a massive increase in power - double the memory, double the GPU power, a massively faster storage solution and a vast CPU upgrade. I can't see that happening for £70 less in just 2 years. Even in 3 years, if they launched in 2020, that kind of upgrade would be very impressive if they managed to retail for £350.

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You wont see a SSD ever in a console...

 

[Anthony Hopkins]

I think BC is more important for next gen simply because current gen games will age a lot better.
Current gen games wont look "ugly" like how older games can with loads of aliasing etc For a very long time.
We are even seeing this happen with the BC this gen. A significant amount of people are enjoying BC on the X1 and the 4k updates makes these older games even more relevant today.

I am convident both Sony and Ms will implement BC in next gen.

 

[Adam802]

Spencer/Cerny 2020, they got my vote!

 

[jelly]

You wont see a SSD ever in a console...

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I think it's doubtful anytime soon but costs will come down the more mainstream it is, hard drives must be on the way out sooner or later. The year 2030 for a cheap 1TB SSD ;)

 

[zombiejames]

You wont see a SSD ever in a console...

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It's going to have to be at one point as RAM sizes keeps increasing. A 5200rpm HDD can't keep up.

 

[Gemüsepizza]

To those people expecting a $399 console in 2020: Why would Sony basically lower the price of their next-gen console, when they are market leader? When has this ever happened?

Because if you take inflation into account, you will get this:

$399 in 2013 = $449 in 2020

Going with $399 means Sony would take a hit of several billion USD.

 

[Segafreak]

15TF Navi
12 core Ryzen
32GB ram
128GB SSD cache
$499
Fall 2020

The world is ready

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To add to this, I want FauxK (native 1800p to 4K CB) be the standard next gen, the difference with native 4K is negligible but you get much more budget to spend on IQ.

I find it hard to believe that modders can make a PS2 emulator that works on PC, but Sony, who made the fucking Playstation 2, can't do it with the power of the PS4.

Like, I'm not even asking for a full library from day 1. Just do it like MS. Start slowly adding titles little by little. Even start with PS1 for Christ sakes. I could play PS1 games on my old ass phone.

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It's not whether they can, they just don't want to. PS4 on custom firmware does enable the PS2 emu to run more games, but they have visual artifacts or don't run properly, it hasn't received the same amount of updates and years of dedication PCSX2 has. I'm sure if Sony put a team of engineers to it they could surpass PCSX2, but they rather sell PS2 classics.

I don't understand what is the point of having 32gb of ram if discs are limited to 50gb and filling 32gb worth of data from 5400rpm hdd is gonna take forever.

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Simply put, data you need will be loaded into and from the ultra fast SSD cache, which is definitely gonna be a thing next gen. It'll be a fancy SSHD but the cache will be much bigger and soldered on the motherboard and therefore much faster.

I think the thing to think about is this:

Xbox One X
Launch: November 2017
Retail Price: £420
Specs: Jaguar CPU (albeit upclocked and with a fancy vapour chamber cooling system), 12GB of GDDR5, 6TF GPU, mechanical HDD (so NOT an SSD)

I am really not convinced that Sony would be able to offer a Ryzen CPU, 24GB of GDDR5 / 5X / 6 / HBM2, a 12 TF GPU and an SSD for £350 - which is £70 less than Xbox One X retailed for - just 2 years after the X. That would represent a massive increase in power - double the memory, double the GPU power, a massively faster storage solution and a vast CPU upgrade. I can't see that happening for £70 less in just 2 years. Even in 3 years, if they launched in 2020, that kind of upgrade would be very impressive if they managed to retail for £350.

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Would you have believed in 2014 that MS would release a console ~5x more powerful 3 years later? When 7nm gpu's hit it's gonna change people's perspective on how fast they want next gen to be.

 

[Kaako]

You wont see a SSD ever in a console...

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"Ever" is quite a strong word. Magnetic will become pretty much obsolete within the next 5 console generations. xp

 

[HstrangeDreaMs]

It's going to have to be at one point as RAM sizes keeps increasing. A 5200rpm HDD can't keep up.

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They can have SSD cache with a hybrid drive instead which is cost efficient than a real SSD.

 

[severianb]

I don't understand what is the point of having 32gb of ram if discs are limited to 50gb and filling 32gb worth of data from 5400rpm hdd is gonna take forever.

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Because the next gen will have 4000MB/s PCIe SSDs? (Like the XB1X Development Kit already has....which is basically just a hopped up X1X)

 

[Fatmanp]

I don't think the release date is going to be up to Sony. MS is going to want to get out of this gen asap and ahead of them which is why whatever the specs are i think it will be fall 2019 at the latest. If MS do a good job with gamepass I can see them selling a fairly powerful machine at the time of release for a loss in the hope that they can gain market share. It would not surprise me in the least if they look to launch the machine with Halo, Gears and Forza either seeing as that would be a four year dev cycle for Halo, three years for Gears and two for Forza which they do anyway. I can see storage space being where cuts are made to lower cost though.

 

[StreamedHams]

The later the better. PS4 feels like a newborn.

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I agree, even thought I own a Pro and X1X, I'm extremely content with what both Sony and MS are bringing to their respective machines. Depending on how well stunners like Anthem and TLoU2 perform, and what the 1100 series of Nvidia cards hold, I could wait as long as '21...maybe even '22.

 

[butman]

Y'all are crazy, it's been almost half a damn decade

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I want to play God of War Part 2 on my PS4.

 

[Deleted member 26768]

To those people expecting a $399 console in 2020: Why would Sony basically lower the price of their next-gen console, when they are market leader? When has this ever happened?

Because if you take inflation into account, you will get this:

$399 in 2013 = $449 in 2020

Going with $399 means Sony would take a hit of several billion USD.

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because higher price didn't work in the past

 

[KillerMan91]

I think the thing to think about is this:

Xbox One X
Launch: November 2017
Retail Price: £420
Specs: Jaguar CPU (albeit upclocked and with a fancy vapour chamber cooling system), 12GB of GDDR5, 6TF GPU, mechanical HDD (so NOT an SSD)

I am really not convinced that Sony would be able to offer a Ryzen CPU, 24GB of GDDR5 / 5X / 6 / HBM2, a 12 TF GPU and an SSD for £350 - which is £70 less than Xbox One X retailed for - just 2 years after the X. That would represent a massive increase in power - double the memory, double the GPU power, a massively faster storage solution and a vast CPU upgrade. I can't see that happening for £70 less in just 2 years. Even in 3 years, if they launched in 2020, that kind of upgrade would be very impressive if they managed to retail for £350.

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Well one difference is that as a mid gen console Xbox One X is probably sold with healthy profit. I mean it's PS4 Pro on steroids and 4Gb of extra RAM and costs 100$ more. PS5 on the other hand will be probably sold first with break even price point or even slight loss. Like base PS4 when it launched.

 

[CarthOhNoes]

Because the next gen will have 4000MB/s PCIe SSDs? (Like the XB1X Development Kit already has....which is basically just a hopped up X1X)

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That means they will need to put a mechanical HDD in there too for storage. Unless you think SOny are gonna stick a PCIe SSD with at least 1TB of storage space in it. Also for £350.

 

[lightchris]

To those people expecting a $399 console in 2020: Why would Sony basically lower the price of their next-gen console, when they are market leader? When has this ever happened?

Because if you take inflation into account, you will get this:

$399 in 2013 = $449 in 2020

Going with $399 means Sony would take a hit of several billion USD.

Click to shrink...

Was going to say the same thing. At some point they will have to increase the price point even if they wanted to keep it lower.

There is a chance that it will work out one last time, but I wouldn't be surprised by a $450-500 price tag for the next PlayStation.

 

[anexanhume]

They can have SSD cache with a hybrid drive instead which is cost efficient than a real SSD.

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A 32/64GB managed cache (as in devs dictate what gets loaded into it and plan for it) should work brilliantly. HBCC should ease main memory usage as well. They could probably get away with 16GB.

 

[zombiejames]

They can have SSD cache with a hybrid drive instead which is cost efficient than a real SSD.

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It only speeds up loading after something's been cached in the first place, though, and cache sizes are tiny. Load times would be wildly inconsistent and I think it would confuse consumers (eg. load times might be 2 minutes one time and 45 seconds the next, then back to 2 minutes after switching to a different game).

 

[KainXVIII]

Don't really care about BC, just give us huge jump in specs, raytracing, physx support on hardware level or such things!

 

[Andri]

"Ever" is quite a strong word. Magnetic will become pretty much obsolete within the next 5 console generations. xp

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What does the Switch use ?

Its not a harddrive, but is it a SSD or something else ?

 

[jelly]

They can have SSD cache with a hybrid drive instead which is cost efficient than a real SSD.

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Xbox One was sold with one of those.

https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-2016-should-you-upgrade-your-xbox-one-with-an-ssd

For anyone interested in loading time differences.

 

[Horp]

2020 and 699 please. Wont happen but man would I love to spend the extra dollars on a machine I will play on for many years, and which performance will dictate what games will be like for everyone.

 

[entremet]

I just bought my PS4 2 years ago. Seems so soon!

 

[CarthOhNoes]

All I'm saying is, try not to let the hype get to you. Many, many people went totally overboard with Scorpio hype, expecting it to have Zen and an SSD etc. Sony / MS are likely looking at the price point first and foremost. They will build the machine however they can to keep it in a certain bracket and expecting all sorts of fancy, high end PC tech in there while still keeping the price down is an easy way to get disappointed. I'm keeping my expectations low so that I can be floored by whatever they do reveal.

 

[Chief Malik]

I want to play God of War Part 2 on my PS4.

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Well have them cross gen it then but that game too long to make anyways

 

[Deleted member 35598]

So if I got everything right, the next gen console in 2019 is unlikely because of next gen gpu and memory are not available yet. Right ?

Also that's interesting that 12TF seems to be the target for next gen. So twice the Xbox One X which is 3 times more powerful than the PS4. Hum.

 

[illamap]

It only speeds up loading after something's been cached in the first place, though, and cache sizes are tiny. Load times would be wildly inconsistent and I think it would confuse consumers (eg. load times might be 2 minutes one time and 45 seconds the next, then back to 2 minutes after switching to a different game).

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I assume if there was an 64gb ssd drive and game size would be around 50gb then at 250mb/s hdd read speed, where it would load the whole game in order to ssd drive it would take 3-4mins which wouldn't be that bad when switching between games and benefits would be huge in terms in-game loading times.

 

[zombiejames]

So if I got everything right, the next gen console in 2019 is unlikely because of next gen gpu and memory are not available yet. Right ?

Also that's interesting that 12TF seems to be the target for next gen. So twice the Xbox One X which is 3 times more powerful than the PS4. Hum.

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The PS4 GPU is 1.84TF. Unless you meant the Pro?

 

[harz-marz]

Is this because you have a backlog?

Just finish your PS4 games.

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I've finished many games. I just don't want multiple boxes under my TV. What an odd response...

 

[Deleted member 20297]

PS5 will have to have bc. The appeal of having direct access to all of your digital games, including save games, by just exchanging the hardware and the potential that these games even run better than before can not be not seen.

 

[Doskoi Panda]

Is this because you have a backlog?

Just finish your PS4 games.

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i'm trying not to roll my eyes but it's hard
it'd be better if sony respected our digital purchasing habits (that they encouraged), enough to move our products forward, like we can do with just about every other entertainment medium we engage with

my music library isn't left behind when I buy a new phone or MP3 player

my movie library isn't left behind when I buy a new blu ray player

my game library isn't left behind when I buy a new Xbox or PC

but I guess sony is special?

 

[~Fake]

Almost missed this thread. Sry. Back to the topic, Sony not need to release the PS5 in 2019, but he can talk about... or maybe 2020. 2020 its a fair point. Ryzen/Radeon its a obvious choise. Don't even think in a Nvidia possibility unless you want to put BC into trash.

Now the 'next gen memory' we need to wait. For AMD case, my guess is HBM3 unless they want a GDDR case just like Nvidia.

 

[Segaswirl]

Easy, pathetic Xbox fans who don't want to see Sony take the performance Crown again.

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Or it could be people that just bought a PS4 or a Pro and feel a bit burned at the prospect of a new generation starting so soon.

 

[nelsonroyale]

Before 2020, would be madness considering there hasn't been any indication that this gen has peaked yet. I am a graphics enthusiast, but I would much rather they held off until they can deliver a tangible step above PS4 Pro / X

 

[uncleniccius]

How big an upgrade would that be in terms of % cpu wise?

 

[BitsandBytes]

So if I got everything right, the next gen console in 2019 is unlikely because of next gen gpu and memory are not available yet. Right ?

Also that's interesting that 12TF seems to be the target for next gen. So twice the Xbox One X which is 3 times more powerful than the PS4. Hum.

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Remember everything is just speculation and possibilities at least until the likes of Richard are comfortable sharing more stuff ;)

Late 2019 is just the earliest realistic launch date and if that can be met then they will do it (targeted launch date is something they aim for years in advance).

 

[Deleted member 35598]

The PS4 GPU is 1.84TF. Unless you meant the Pro?

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No I meant the PS4.

The Xbox One X is 3 times more powerful than the PS4.

And the PS5/XB4 ( 12TF ) will be 2 times more powerful than the Xbox One X.

 

[Airing of Grievances]

Man I can't wait for PS Meeting 2020 =P
I hope Guerrilla will blow us away.

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I recall the weeks of debate where people kept calling this CGI or pre-rendered.

 

[zombiejames]

How big an upgrade would that be in terms of % cpu wise?

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It wold be pretty hard to give an exact number but Zen is a massive upgrade. You can't understate how huge of a leap that would be. AMD really hit a home run with the architecture.

No I meant the PS4.

The Xbox One X is 3 times more powerful than the PS4.

And the PS5/XB4 ( 12TF ) will be 2 times more powerful than the Xbox One X.

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Yeah, I follow what you're saying, I misread.

 

[ethomaz]

Hummm...

- First devs receiving early devkits
- Second Sony in talk with developers
- Now Cerny in talk with developers

PS5 is a reality.

Can't wait next year :(

 

[khamakazee]

What realistic jump can we expect with the PS5, the same from the PS4 to the Pro? Is Sony going to try and push the price above $399 because they are doing so well this generation and think they have room? Will Sony go in a different direction and do something like Nintendo does and make the hardware unique?

So if I got everything right, the next gen console in 2019 is unlikely because of next gen gpu and memory are not available yet. Right ?
Also that's interesting that 12TF seems to be the target for next gen. So twice the Xbox One X which is 3 times more powerful than the PS4. Hum.

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How much do you realistically think that will cost next year? My guess is along the lines of $599.

 

[entremet]

Hummm...

- First devs receiving early devkits
- Second Sony in talk with developers
- Now Cerny in talk with developers

PS5 is a reality.

Can't wait next year :(

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Why would it not be a reality? It's as guaranteed as the days passing.

 

[uncleniccius]

It wold be pretty hard to give an exact number but Zen is a massive upgrade. You can't understate how huge of a leap that would be. AMD really hit a home run with the architecture.

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Interesting, I was googling around and struggled to find am answer.. This + a big gpu boost would be great. Would love to see an SSD but cost wise might be a struggle.. SSHD minimum would be nice though.

Question though, how much difference would hyperthreading make?

 

[ethomaz]

I think the thing to think about is this:

Xbox One X
Launch: November 2017
Retail Price: £420
Specs: Jaguar CPU (albeit upclocked and with a fancy vapour chamber cooling system), 12GB of GDDR5, 6TF GPU, mechanical HDD (so NOT an SSD)

I am really not convinced that Sony would be able to offer a Ryzen CPU, 24GB of GDDR5 / 5X / 6 / HBM2, a 12 TF GPU and an SSD for £350 - which is £70 less than Xbox One X retailed for - just 2 years after the X. That would represent a massive increase in power - double the memory, double the GPU power, a massively faster storage solution and a vast CPU upgrade. I can't see that happening for £70 less in just 2 years. Even in 3 years, if they launched in 2020, that kind of upgrade would be very impressive if they managed to retail for £350.

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Err 16nm to 7nm is really a big jump.

Something Sony and MS didn't have with Pro and X.

 

[Sub Boss]

PS4 is the first time i feel games (devs) have reached a balance , no longer costrained by limited RAM, storage or GPU capacity, but by budget, resources and time, though there is still the CPU to deal with, a harsh reality of economics and that all components can't improve over time.

There should be enough time to assure the jump to PS5 comes with a proper powerful cpu

 

[GoldenKings]

Is this because you have a backlog?

Just finish your PS4 games.

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Not so much as a back log issue for me, but it would be really nice if my purchases and progress for mutliplayer service games like Overwatch and Rocket League could transfer over. Having to buy those again would be a real bummer.

 

[Vertpin]

All this talk about the PlayStation 5 has me like...: