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rjinaz

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
28,404
Phoenix
How long until the conspiracy theorists start blaming the market's performance on the Democrats as some sort of smear campaign to make Trumpo look bad?
The go to will be that Americans are worried about Democrats and Socialism taking over the country and the market will rebound once America reelects Trump. We've seen it before.
 

fossi8

One Winged Slayer
Member
Apr 22, 2018
1,006
At this point any big event is exposed to be cancelled:

E3, Olympic Games, any sports event in China (F1, Tennis, Golf), what else?
 

Deleted member 4367

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
12,226
If you can afford to buy a house then proceed to buy a house. You can't worry about dips or peaks when it's a 30 year decision.
It's not usually a 30 year decision. At least for a lot of people.

But that's a pointless distinction because you're still probably right. I don't know why I needed to say that. My bad.
 

Failburger

Banned
Dec 3, 2018
2,455
This video sums up trying to time the market



Key take away? Don't. Especially if you're 30 years away from retirement.
 

Aurongel

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
7,065
Is this the time I should be dumping money into my Roth IRA?
 

Min

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,073
This video sums up trying to time the market



Key take away? Don't. Especially if you're 30 years away from retirement.


If I had been investing for the past 6 years and had a size-able earnings buffer from my investments then I probably wouldn't have sold my stocks. I started investing in December of 2019, so I'm very glad to see the warning signs and bow out before I went into the red.
 

Shadybiz

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,119
Head's in the sand...I have probably around 20 years until retirement, so I'm just gonna keep on contributing. Lots of people pulled out when the market tanked in 2008, and they missed out on bigly gains.

Is this the time I should be dumping money into my Roth IRA?

Tough (impossible) to say where the bottom is, but the short answer is "Yes." Unless you're retiring in the very near future, you should be putting in.
 

Darren Lamb

Member
Dec 1, 2017
2,832
So will this make Trump look worse? Maybe act as ammo against him? Or not really since it's outside his control?

I'm worried it's a bit of a get outta jail free card. Even if we're unprepared for it, most countries are too. He can't say the decline is due to his shitty economic policies
 

Steve9842017

Member
Nov 7, 2017
414
If I had been investing for the past 6 years and had a size-able earnings buffer from my investments then I probably wouldn't have sold my stocks. I started investing in December of 2019, so I'm very glad to see the warning signs and bow out before I went into the red.

You're trying to time the market. Unless you're near retirement age you should be continually adding to positions, not investing for ~3 months only to sell and accumulate higher taxes on those short-term gains. The market will always beat you in the end.

This is assuming you are investing with money you don't actually need right now. If you are investing with money you absolutely need in the near short-term, do not put that money into the market.
 

Min

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,073
You're trying to time the market. Unless you're near retirement age you should be continually adding to positions, not investing for ~3 months only to sell and accumulate higher taxes on those short-term gains. The market will always beat you in the end.

🤷‍♂️ I would have lost a few thousand that I cannot afford to lose. I might get higher taxes on short-term gains now but I haven't lost the money I put into the market.
 

Min

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,073
I would have more money right now if I predicted a pandemic and got out of the market.

You didn't need to predict it all the news for the last month has been about the pandemic. All the reports have been about the incompetency of containment. Factories closing and the top fortune 500 companies saying it was going to effect their earnings in the coming quarter. Now we're hearing reporting that it's going to be a struggle to see profitability from companies this year because of the supply chain being halted. The WHO is still reluctant to even declare officially a pandemic yet are saying it not a matter of if but when.
 

Meatfist

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,292
So will this make Trump look worse? Maybe act as ammo against him? Or not really since it's outside his control?

I think this is going to be the nail in the coffin for Trump's reelection unless the coronavirus is mitigated far more quickly than what people are expecting. He's coasted off of a good economy for almost his entire presidency, and even if he handled the federal response to a public health crisis with flying colors (hint: he won't) voters won't be satiated unless their retirement accounts go back to normal
 

Shadybiz

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,119
But I sold for a profit.

I get that. What I'm saying is that if you held, and it went down, you still wouldn't have lost anything as long as you didn't actually sell. Then, when there's an eventual rebound, you'd come out on the other end with an even higher gain. You probably had to pay a transaction fee to buy and then to sell. You'll also have to pay capital gains on what you made. Now, when you go to buy again, you'll have to pay another transaction fee, and then capital gains again when you sell later. And there's no telling when that rebound will be. It could shoot up tomorrow, and you'll miss out.
 

TyrantII

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,365
Boston
Is this the time I should be dumping money into my Roth IRA?

No. You should be regularly funding it and not timing a market. Example: regular contributions since last Feb would still have you up year over year.

If you have a little extra to put into contributions when markets dip thats fine (say you decide to use your tax return on contributions this year instead of a vacation), but only investing during downturns is leaving a lot of money on the table.
 

Tragicomedy

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
4,310
I'm not going to speculate exact stocks for people but keeping your money liquid right now would be the stupidest thing to do if it's available to be invested.

Or not. The market could collapse tremendously in the coming weeks/months, which would present a much better investment opportunity than now.

You know, quite literally, nothing more than I do on the matter.
 

TrueSloth

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,067
I think this is going to be the nail in the coffin for Trump's reelection unless the coronavirus is mitigated far more quickly than what people are expecting. He's coasted off of a good economy for almost his entire presidency, and even if he handled the federal response to a public health crisis with flying colors (hint: he won't) voters won't be satiated unless their retirement accounts go back to normal
I disagree. Conservatives will see this isn't because of Trump and tell their constituents it's the Virus' fault, which it is. But they won't recognize the health issues that will arise because of our shitty health care system and response to it.
 

gcubed

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,785
I get that. What I'm saying is that if you held, and it went down, you still wouldn't have lost anything as long as you didn't actually sell. Then, when there's an eventual rebound, you'd come out on the other end with an even higher gain. You probably had to pay a transaction fee to buy and then to sell. You'll also have to pay capital gains on what you made. Now, when you go to buy again, you'll have to pay another transaction fee, and then capital gains again when you sell later. And there's no telling when that rebound will be. It could shoot up tomorrow, and you'll miss out.

If he only started invest in December of 2019, he's paying full payroll taxes, making it even worse.
 

Tom Penny

Member
Oct 26, 2017
19,236
Or not. The market could collapse tremendously in the coming weeks/months, which would present a much better investment opportunity than now.

You know, quite literally, nothing more than I do on the matter.
Can't time the market. It's like anything else. You are going to have ups and downs. If you live where weather can be bad do you move or do deal with it and know that's part of the package. If you feel the US economy will stay static or get worse the next 50 years then don't invest.. If you think it will still be in good shape then invest. That's why index funds are the easiest safest most powerful option..you are betting on the entire economy not a few companies over an extended period of time and so far it has never not bounced back. It is incredibly scary and frightening to ride the wave so I get why people bail and get shook when things are bad.
 

TyrantII

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,365
Boston
If he only started invest in December of 2019, he's paying full payroll taxes, making it even worse.

Yep.

Unrealized losses are unrealized until you pull the trigger.

Fees and taxes also eat into investments big time over years and decades.

Time is your friend in investing, play the long game and do it as cheaply as possible. Risk needs to be hedged.

Otherwise, you're really just playing in Vegas and should have no illusions that you're "investing".
 

chuckddd

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,122
Sold a bunch of tech stock when the Corona virus hit. Then watched in horror as the market kept going up. My timing was poor, but my prognosis was correct.