EA Has Provided A New Combined Install Base Estimate for PS4 & XB1 (READ OP)

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Abriael

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I don't think it's as simple as saying pick whose estimate you prefer to believe. No. Who is more likely to be more accurate? Ask that instead
With estimates, it's literally that simple. It all goes down to who you trust because *no* estimate is really accurate.

Who is more likely to be closer to accurate for me? Between two Resetera users, as well informed as they may be, and a giant publisher that actually sells millions upon millions of games on those same platforms, I'm very likely to believe EA.

Incidentally, NPD numbers and even Sony's own sell-through numbers are estimates as well.
 
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ianpm31

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Oct 27, 2017
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Just goes on to show how badly the xbox brand struggles outside of the usual US/UK. Can't see how anything will change next gen
 

Ploid 6.0

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Zhuge is a professional analyst. His comment is in the OP, but you already know that because you've already read it right? :)
I edited my post after searching the name I noticed I did read that. I didn't retain that name after reading the op though so when it was brought up to me again in a quote I had no idea who Zhuge was. I even make sure that I'm spelling it right here and the edit. First time I ever heard of the person.

Just goes on to show how badly the xbox brand struggles outside of the usual US/UK. Can't see how anything will change next gen
This is something that was known though, right? US was a major Xbox 360 territory. PS3 was catching up in thanks to other territories.
 

Wololo

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Just goes on to show how badly the xbox brand struggles outside of the usual US/UK. Can't see how anything will change next gen
Hence why people have been calling for more games beyond Halo, Gears and Forza otherwise they will never appeal to anyone outside the already established core audience. Hopefully those JRPG xbox rumours at e3 are true.
 

Betty

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Well...

This makes the idea of Microsoft acquiring a 3rd party developer at E3 to help with Gamepass less likely to me.
 

ElBoxy

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Hence why people have been calling for more games beyond Halo, Gears and Forza otherwise they will never appeal to anyone outside the already established core audience. Hopefully those JRPG xbox rumours at e3 are true.
That's never helped their presence outside of the US and UK.
 
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pswii60

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Oct 27, 2017
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With estimates, it's literally that simple. It all goes down to who you trust because *no* estimate is really accurate.

Who is more likely to be closer to accurate for me? Between two Resetera users, as well informed as they may be, and a giant publisher that actually sells millions upon millions of games on those same platforms, I'm very likely to believe EA.
But the numbers don't add up as Zhuge explained. It's not a case of who to believe.
Believe it or not, Merriam Webster has been updated so that "literally" now has two meanings:

1) Literally
2) Not literally

I kid you not. See for yourself and weep.
Merriam Webster can literally fuck off.
 

Deleted member 36622

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What they did in E3 2013 will follow them forever unfortunately. Much like apple removing the headphone jack. They alienated a lot of users with that.
It's not the only problem here though.

The lack of a consistent wave of first party titles also hurts hardware sales. Cancelling games like Scalebound surely had an impact, not because Platinum games are huge sellers (more the opposite) but because Microsoft made a big deal about this game, i remember them calling it their best exclusive at a couple of E3s.

For all the improvements Microsoft made with the services and the OS, we can't deny that 2017's lineup was extremely poor. (with only Halo Wars 2 for the first part of the year and then Cuphead and Forza for the fall)
 

Shpeshal Ed

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With estimates, it's literally that simple. It all goes down to who you trust because *no* estimate is really accurate.

Who is more likely to be closer to accurate for me? Between two Resetera users, as well informed as they may be, and a giant publisher that actually sells millions upon millions of games on those same platforms, I'm very likely to believe EA.
Huh?

Doesn't Zhuge have access to NPD Data?

The same data the publishers/manufacturer's quote themselves in press releases?
 

Sir Guts

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Something not right. Xbox is over 35m now and PlayStation more than 76m. Are they excluding the X/Pro?
 

Ebtesam

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Then where did EA pull those figures from? You’d think they’d know more about their potential market on each system than an analyst. But maybe not. If not i’m just curious where there got the stats.
I Don't Know, But Not everyone Buy there game in the system !

But I'm curious in how They Know
 

Deleted member 15933

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Jeez.....forget PS4 sales numbers, forget Xbox One sales numbers and forget Switch sales numbers.

The bigger more important question is -

Why the hell is anyone listening to EA????? LMAO.
We shouldn't trust a company that posts ~1bn$ income per year on knowing numbers? Maybe we should listen to you instead?

Hot take or not, comments like this really show the state of internet discussion :(
 

christocolus

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Oct 27, 2017
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It's weird because EA said the installed base at the end of calendar 2016 was 79 million. Now they say the installed base is 103 million at the end of 2017.

So if we look at the numbers Sony provided.
PS4 was at 53.4m at the end of 2016. That would put Xbox One around ~25.6m.
PS4 was 73.6m at the end of 2017. That would put Xbox One around ~29.4m

So EA is estimating that Xbox One sold around 3.8m units in 2017. But the Xbox One sold more than that in the US alone.

So the numbers don't add up. Perhaps they're excluding some territory or maybe Pro/OneX?

As I stated in prior threads, the Xbox One installed base is over 35 million globally.


http://www.playstationlifestyle.net...s4-xbox-one-sales-reach-105-million-end-2017/
Thanks for clarifying. So it seems EAs estimates isn't taking into account certain factors? Or they are aren't calculating this same way we are?

Anyway glad MS is still churning out a healthy profit from their gaming division.
 

Abriael

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Huh?

Doesn't Zhuge have access to NPD Data?

The same data the publishers/manufacturer's quote themselves in press releases?
But the numbers don't add up as Zhuge explained. It's not a case of who to believe.
1: NPD data is only related to the United States. We're talking worldwide numbers here.

2: ALL Sell-through numbers are estimates. This includes EA's numbers, NPD's numbers, and even Sony's own numbers. The margin of error with estimates is pretty wide, in all directions, even more so when combined.
 

Deleted member 249

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With estimates, it's literally that simple. It all goes down to who you trust because *no* estimate is really accurate.

Who is more likely to be closer to accurate for me? Between two Resetera users, as well informed as they may be, and a giant publisher that actually sells millions upon millions of games on those same platforms, I'm very likely to believe EA.

Incidentally, NPD numbers and even Sony's own sell-through numbers are estimates as well.
ZHugeX is an actual analyst who works for an analysis firm, whose numbers correspond with the reality and picture we have from other sources, such as NPD's own numbers, far better than EA's do. Add to that that EA's projected numbers make no sense (27 million units sold between Xbox One and PS4 this year, but Sony projects 18 million for the entire financial year, so they expect Xbox One sales to, what, increase by magnitudes this year out of nowhere? Switch projections are all out of whack, unless the console severely underperforms, which so far it has shown no signs of doing in spite of a severe drought), and I am far more wont to suspect their numbers this time.
 

ianpm31

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This is something that was known though, right? US was a major Xbox 360 territory. PS3 was catching up in thanks to other territories.
Pretty much. Next-gen the PS5/XB can be even in the US/UK but PS5 will still be ahead by a huge margin. It can't hurt to try but I honestly don't think there is anything MS can do about the brand's perception worldwide. A lot of people only want playstation/nintendo and the xbox doesn't exist.
 

Pein

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That's never helped.
It’s a bigger problem and if you keep missing out on what the competition has in terms of titles it becomes “platform has no games”.

It’s a situation where Xbox doesn’t get Japanese games all that much, look at Nier automata and the yakuza games. Last gen 360 seemed to get every Japanese multi platform game, this gen you might get a Xbox release, even from the big Japanese plubishers it’s a maybe.
 

Maneil99

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So why are you taking the total number EA says and subtracting the total number of PS4s we have and concluding that must be the actual amount of Xbox's sold. We could do the reverse too and find a below the norm PS4 number
 

Abriael

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ZHugeX is an actual analyst who works for an analysis firm, whose numbers correspond with the reality and picture we have from other sources, such as NPD's own numbers, far better than EA's do. Add to that that EA's projected numbers make no sense (27 million units sold between Xbox One and PS4 this year, but Sony projects 18 million for the entire financial year, so they expect Xbox One sales to, what, increase by magnitudes this year out of nowhere? Switch projections are all out of whack, unless the console severely underperforms, which so far it has shown no signs of doing in spite of a severe drought), and I am far more wont to suspect their numbers this time.
I'm pretty confident that EA has plenty of "actual analysts" and "analysis firms" working for them.
 

ElBoxy

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Oct 25, 2017
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It’s a bigger problem and if you keep missing out on what the competition has in terms of titles it becomes “platform has no games”.

It’s a situation where Xbox doesn’t get Japanese games all that much, look at Nier automata and the yakuza games. Last gen 360 seemed to get every Japanese multi platform game, this gen you might get a Xbox release, even from the big Japanese plubishers it’s a maybe.
I'm not saying they shouldn't get those games but they have never moved the needle of the brand outside of the US and UK.
 

Braaier

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Oct 29, 2017
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With estimates, it's literally that simple. It all goes down to who you trust because *no* estimate is really accurate.

Who is more likely to be closer to accurate for me? Between two Resetera users, as well informed as they may be, and a giant publisher that actually sells millions upon millions of games on those same platforms, I'm very likely to believe EA.

Incidentally, NPD numbers and even Sony's own sell-through numbers are estimates as well.
Okay. That's fine. Between EA and folks that have access to NPD data I'm much more likely to believe the latter, so long as they are being honest. And I don't think we have any reason to doubt Zhuge.

EA is not in the business of estimating console sales. That is part of NPD's business. I'd expect the latter to be more accurate.
 

Pein

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So why are you taking the total number EA says and subtracting the total number of PS4s we have and concluding that must be the actual amount of Xbox's sold. We could do the reverse too and find a below the norm PS4 number
Because Sony releases numbers and Microsoft is a guessing game?
 

ZhugeEX

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Oct 24, 2017
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Thanks for clarifying. So it seems EAs estimates isn't taking into account certain factors? Or they are aren't calculating this same way we are?
No worries. I'm not sure what the reason is for the discrepancy with EA's estimates.
It could be it excludes Pro/One X numbers.
It could be that EA excludes a territory like Japan (they used to do this last generation)
It could be that EA estimates PS4 at a lower number. (Which would be weird given Sony release the official numbers)
It could be that installed base =/= sell through in EA's eyes. So replacement consoles sold wouldn't count and only people actively using consoles would count?

EA's estimates aren't wrong. I'm just fairly certain one of the above things is true.

Ultimately what we do know is PS4 sell through was 73.6m at the end of 2017. Xbox One is less than half of that total which shows the big gap between the two in terms of sales. But that's something that has been known for a long time.
 

OldBritBloke

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Oct 28, 2017
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So why are you taking the total number EA says and subtracting the total number of PS4s we have and concluding that must be the actual amount of Xbox's sold. We could do the reverse too and find a below the norm PS4 number
Because the global sales of the PS4 are a known quantity, and Microsoft has done everything in its power to ensure that the global sales of the Xbox One are not.
 

Abriael

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Okay. That's fine. Between EA and folks that have access to NPD data I'm much more likely to believe the latter, so long as they are being honest. And I don't think we have any reason to doubt Zhuge.

EA is not in the business of estimating console sales. That is part of NPD's business. I'd expect the latter to be more accurate.
NPD's estimates are also estimates. EA may not be directly in the business in estimating console sales, but they have plenty of people in that business working for them. Having semi-precise estimates is extremely important for their own business.

Incidentally, NPD does not provide any sort of worldwide data. Their estimates are limited exclusively to the US.
 
Oct 27, 2017
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Pretty much. Next-gen the PS5/XB can be even in the US/UK but PS5 will still be ahead by a huge margin. It can't hurt to try but I honestly don't think there is anything MS can do about the brand's perception worldwide. A lot of people only want playstation/nintendo and the xbox doesn't exist.
I agree. It's basically a Pepsi vs. Coca-Cola situation. The negative effect of 2013 is/was overblown on Era/Gaf...as if the average consumers reads threads on message boards. It may have changed the outcome in US/UK, but going on it will always be a neck to neck race in those two territories.
 

Braaier

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NPD's estimates are also estimates. EA may not be directly in the business in estimating console sales, but they have plenty of people in that business working for them. Having semi-precise estimates is extremely important for their own business.

Incidentally, NPD does not provide any sort of worldwide data. Their estimates are limited exclusively to the US.
You're correct. And it's likely that ea pays for npd data so it gets messy
 

SirVilhelm

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Oct 27, 2017
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Believe it or not, Merriam Webster has been updated so that "literally" now has two meanings:

1) Literally
2) Not literally

I kid you not. See for yourself and weep.
Wow, you were not wrong. I like this piece from their explanation though which fits perfectly here on Era

"The use of literally in a fashion that is hyperbolic or metaphoric is not new..."
 

Deleted member 36622

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So why are you taking the total number EA says and subtracting the total number of PS4s we have and concluding that must be the actual amount of Xbox's sold. We could do the reverse too and find a below the norm PS4 number
I think that's actually a fair point.

We don't know if Sony's numbers are 100% accurate either, since those are estimates too.

I think that's Microsoft and Sony fault, people are pissed by this discussions but without transparency you can't stop this, you will always have to wonder.

Not releasing shipped units numbers or just estimates is a double-edged sword.
 

Guymelef

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Okay. That's fine. Between EA and folks that have access to NPD data I'm much more likely to believe the latter, so long as they are being honest. And I don't think we have any reason to doubt Zhuge.

EA is not in the business of estimating console sales. That is part of NPD's business. I'd expect the latter to be more accurate.
Are you saying EA doesn't have access to NPD numbers?
 

Maneil99

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Because the global sales of the PS4 are a known quantity, and Microsoft has done everything in its power to ensure that the global sales of the Xbox One are not.
NPD not accurate then either? If not then how have NPD + WW numbers always correlated closely to Sony numbers yet now we have a 15% difference in NPD + WW sales and EA's numbers
 

Rocco

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Well, not being #1 doesn't mean failure, but Sony has clearly "won" the gen.

But when you have money, video game history has shown us that you can always make comeback. Gamers are largely bi partisan and Microsoft is clearly making moves while Sony is fast asleep at the next gen wheel.
 
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