EA Has Provided A New Combined Install Base Estimate for PS4 & XB1 (READ OP)

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Deleted member 8408

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"It could be that installed base =/= sell through in EA's eyes. So replacement consoles sold wouldn't count and only people actively using consoles would count?"

I would say that probably this. Xbox X seems to be made to xbox hardcore owns who already have One S/One
And wouldn't be the first time that a installed base is different to total consoles sold, I remember people arguing about this and the RROD
See, this is why engagement and MAU are more important and more accurate than sales numbers will ever be. We don't need sales numbers anymore the concept is totally outdated. This isn't 1999 anymore, those pesky millennials are becoming adults *shudders*.

Meanwhile Sony is over there like the mischievous kid in the corner stealing other kids toys to pad their numbers and look more superior than they really are. It's all a lie.
 

Wamb0wneD

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Oct 26, 2017
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Didn't CBOAT completely leak MS E3 like a week before it happened? Wouldn't that be a good insider?
CBOAT turned out to be an account shared by multiple insiders afaik. Shit was wild lol.
It seems like a some people have a lot of pent up frustration against Bish. No love lost I see.

What if he is correct? Then what? Do we collectively say yikes?
I mean there was some shit going on back then, but to just discredit him like that is uncalled for, imo.
 

Knight613

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See, this is why engagement and MAU are more important and more accurate than sales numbers will ever be. We don't need sales numbers anymore the concept is totally outdated. This isn't 1999 anymore, those pesky millennials are becoming adults *shudders*.

Meanwhile Sony is over there like the mischievous kid in the corner stealing other kids toys to pad their numbers and look more superior than they really are. It's all a lie.
Do you really think Sony's engagement numbers, if reported, wouldn't be higher than Microsoft's?
 
Oct 25, 2017
9,205
Well, not being #1 doesn't mean failure, but Sony has clearly "won" the gen.

But when you have money, video game history has shown us that you can always make comeback. Gamers are largely bi partisan and Microsoft is clearly making moves while Sony is fast asleep at the next gen wheel.
And you know this how? Because they are not doing a bunch of PR?
 

Maneil99

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Nov 2, 2017
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Install base is not the same as NPD hardware sold. EA is very specific about focusing on the term "install base". NPD is about purchasing numbers, they are not directly equivalent though there are correlations.


Just because 4 million consoles are sold does not mean the install base increased by that amount. The mid-gen upgrade is a big factor in this.
Um. 4 million consoles is 4 million added to install base. Nobody takes into account overlap.
 

Deleted member 36622

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We are not on 4chan. If you have something to say, then say it. Tell me what you really think instead of being sarcastic.
EA's numbers are fake as hell, that's his point of view.

Which honestly we can all agree about Nintendo because the company itself released the shipments numbers for the past fiscal year and expectations for this one.

With Microsoft is the assumption game, since they don't clarify this, so yes EA's numbers sounds inaccurate but as far as we know Xbox one sales might still be much lower than what we expect.
 

Deleted member 249

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That would not be anywhere strange considering the margins of error of this kind of statistics.



The calculation of the margin of error is in itself a statistic.

The NPD data is based on a single (but very large) market which is likely to give its data a smaller margin of error when looked in and of itself, but EA is likely taking its estimate from multiple sources and cross-referencing, which can lower its margin of error considerably. We don't have a way to establish with any surety to what extent for one or the other, so it literally boils to who you decide to believe in. Personally, I think EA has better visibility on multiple areas and sources, making its margin of error lower. If you prefer to believe that NPD has better stats, suits yourself.

No one is "sidestepping" and considering that you've been finger pointing and putting stuff in my mouth pretty much since this conversation started, which makes discussing with you rather tedious, I'm out of here. Good day sir.
You can leave, but allow me to summarize the extent of what you have said so far:
  • Media Create and Famitsu have smaller margins of error than trackers for larger territories due to smaller data pool (so far, so good)
  • All numbers are ultimately estimates (yup)
  • None of the numbers should be taken as gospel (sure, why not)
  • EA's numbers are more correct than other sources (... ooookay)
  • NPD, in spite of having a smaller data pool than EA, does not have a smaller margin of error (???)
  • In fact, they only have a different margin of error. Apparently, the degrees are not quantifiable at all!
  • Calculating margin of error using a formula you plug numbers into is statistics (the only "statistical" part of the mathematical process is the raw numbers we use, the statistical nature of which has already been accounted for)
  • And in your coup de grace, EA, in spite of having a bigger data pool than NPD, does not have a bigger margin of error, but a smaller one! This is predicated on absolutely nothing other than assumptions of cross referencing and the like, which of course a firm like NPD absolutely does not engage in
  • Finally, as I have attempted to constantly call you out on your incessant inconsistencies, you have taken your leave
It seems to me there is a very clear picture you want to paint, and you are willing to bend not just numbers but also actual statistical and mathematical processes, as well as cachets of trackers worldwide, to fit said picture. I may be wrong, but that is the impression I get, and you have so far done an unconvincing job of proving otherwise.
 

Nolbertos

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Dec 9, 2017
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All this fighting for who’s right Bish or Zhuge. Bish was a top mod at GAF, so he most likelh got alot of NPD reports in his inbox. Zhuge too. What EA has done is paint MS in a worse situation with there hardware and I think we know xbox one is pretty much almost like 3/4 USA and 1/4 UK and maybe 1% Tier 3 and thats it. MS is getting bombed hard that Spencer rather make up new metrics than use HW sales as PR spin.
 
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Wamb0wneD

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To add to my previous post, does noone look at his post history and think how insane this actually is in reality, given how powerful and influential GAF was at the time?
Well yeah, it was kinda insane haha. But that was what made it great. Always enjoyed all the crazy stuff going on back then.
See, this is why engagement and MAU are more important and more accurate than sales numbers will ever be. We don't need sales numbers anymore the concept is totally outdated. This isn't 1999 anymore, those pesky millennials are becoming adults *shudders*.

Meanwhile Sony is over there like the mischievous kid in the corner stealing other kids toys to pad their numbers and look more superior than they really are. It's all a lie.
Nice one.
 

Deleted member 8408

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I mean there was some shit going on back then, but to just discredit him like that is uncalled for, imo.
The irony is the fact that the type of behaviour on display towards him by some people at the moment is precisely the type of shit that would have got them on his radar on the old place. Time is a flat circle as they say.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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None of this argument and banned stuff would have happened if Microsoft just released the numbers :/.

It all seems weird trying to confirm if EA is right when MS has the real numbers that they refuse to let out
 

Mark H

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Oct 27, 2017
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I think that Switch being estimated at "over 30 million" lends further credence to ZhugeEX's theory that they are indeed excluding Japan.
 

Regret

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All this fighting for who’s right Bish or Zhuge. Bish was a top mod at GAF, so he most likelh got alot of NPD reports in his inbox. Zhuge too. What EA has done is paint MS in a worse situation with there hardware and I think we know xbox one is pretty much almost like 3/4 USA and 1/4 UK and maybe 1% Tier 3 and thats it. MS is getting bombed hard that Spencer rather make up new metrics that use HW sales as PR spin.
Jesus Christ, I can't cringe hard enough.
 

VallenValiant

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Oct 27, 2017
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I've made my points fairly clearly through the thread, and to you as well. I think EA's numbers are bunk. I am proceeding to establish why.
It is only bunk if you think Hardware sale is the same thing as Install Base. If I personally buy one hundred XB1x, NPD would say the sales increased by 100 while EA would say the install base increase by 1.
 

Knight613

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None of this argument and banned stuff would have happened if Microsoft just released the numbers :/.

It all seems weird trying to confirm if EA is right when MS has the real numbers that they refuse to let out
It's funny because in the other thread people were so convinced Microsoft would at least be telling their shareholders and publishers but that doesn't appear to be the case.
 

BlacJack

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Nov 6, 2017
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So EA is estimating that Xbox One sold around 3.8m units in 2017. But the Xbox One sold more than that in the US alone.
How do we know this for sure? The last few guesses at Xbox sales have been estimates, they can be off by a few million, and each time you add estimates upon estimates your margin of error can get pretty big. I would think EA has accurate ways to depict this sort of thing. One of your caveats could still be true but I think we are getting a little carried away with what we know about Xbox sales. I'm assuming you are an analyst of some kind for people to take your word as gospel, so forgive me for asking but do you have access to real numbers from MS?
 

Deleted member 249

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Here is the thing. EA's numbers aren't bunk. They're just clearly using a different measure.
Bunk was probably me being hyperbolic in the heat of the moment. I think more that they're not as representative of the full picture as some like to believe they are.

It is only bunk if you think Hardware sale is the same thing as Install Base. If I personally buy one hundred XB1x, NPD would say the sales increased by 100 while EA would say the install base increase by 1.
Sure, but then they should not be compared 1:1 to hardware sales. Which is the entire basis for this thread.
 

Deleted member 9317

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Y'all are losing your shit over numbers and glorified moderator(s) of a niche gaming forum(s).

This thread is hard to read, y'all are getting stink eyes from around the stratosphere.

Wait for E3 and/or Microsoft and/or Nintendo and/or Sony to share numbers, and fight over who has more millions of units sold when that happens.
 

MisterR

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Oct 27, 2017
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See, this is why engagement and MAU are more important and more accurate than sales numbers will ever be. We don't need sales numbers anymore the concept is totally outdated. This isn't 1999 anymore, those pesky millennials are becoming adults *shudders*.

Meanwhile Sony is over there like the mischievous kid in the corner stealing other kids toys to pad their numbers and look more superior than they really are. It's all a lie.
I hope this is satire.
 

Datajoy

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Seems like Xbox is on pace to have good / solid generation. At least it isn't a total sales catastrophe like Vita or Wii U. Just a disappointment. Just because PS4 is a beast console on pace for 100+million, doesn't mean there isn't also room for others to do well. It isn't a zero sum game, as we saw last gen when all consoles succeeded.
 
Oct 27, 2017
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I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. Key-word is "install base", could mean Xbox One owners buying Xbox one S / X.
Something similar happened last gen, when many people in the US double dipped when the 360 slim launched.
 

BlacJack

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Those numbers could explain the lack of 1P investment. Microsoft knows there wouldn't be enough return.
This argument makes no sense. Sony threw big money at 1P long before PS4 hit 30 million. If anything them throwing that sort of money at 1P is WHY they are selling more. MS was just too focused on other things.
 

Wamb0wneD

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The irony is the fact that the type of behaviour on display towards him by some people at the moment is precisely the type of shit that would have got them on his radar on the old place. Time is a flat circle as they say.
Pretty much, yeah. Some things always stay the same.
Just crossed my mind that it's probably wiser to stop bringing up old baggage tho, no matter in favor of him or not.
Doesn't seem like he's interested in engaging any of it anyway lol.
Nothing stopping him from posting a follow up. He's the one who volunteered that information, so the onus is on him to clarify
I guess. But it seems Zhuge already said they might just use a different measure.
I hope this is satire.
Pretty damn sure it is.
 
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Wereroku

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Oct 27, 2017
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This tweet is about EA's separate estimate for the Switch. It's in the article in the OP.
Sorry missed that since it is such a small part of the article. 30m shipped by Dec 2018 doesn't seem so crazy if they are excluding a territory which seems to coincide with the PS4/XBO numbers being lower. Also again Zhuge has already said EA is not using bunk numbers they are making estimates that align with their own business interests.
 

Wololo

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This argument makes no sense. Sony threw big money at 1P long before PS4 hit 30 million. If anything them throwing that sort of money at 1P is WHY they are selling more. MS was just too focused on other things.
Sony is clearly open to taking more risk while Microsoft is not. MS play it safe by the books running the same franchises dry.
 

Deleted member 249

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Sorry missed that since it is such a small part of the article. 30m shipped by Dec 2018 doesn't seem so crazy if they are excluding a territory which seems to coincide with the PS4/XBO numbers being lower. Also again Zhuge has already said EA is not using bunk numbers they are making estimates that align with their own business interests.
If we are excluding Japan, then yes, all these numbers make sense. That would mean the Switch's numbers aren't as low as they seem, and the 103 million numbers comes down to:

65 million units for PS4 (removing the ~7 million it has sold in Japan)
38 million units for Xbox One (103-67)

Which seem like far more sensible numbers.
 

VallenValiant

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Sure, but then they should not be compared 1:1 to hardware sales. Which is the entire basis for this thread.
Look, it is true we can't simply deduct PS4 hardware sold from EA's total install base. Because nearly by its very nature, the PS4 install base would be smaller than total PS4 consoles sold. So it is likely the Xbox install base number would be under-estimated if done that way. But that doesn't mean the numbers are bunk.

EA's numbers are likely correct by itself, but interpretations would be difficult unless EA also offer up PS4 Install base numbers. 130million is the combined install base and I trust it.

You are not wrong that it is highly suspect to then deduct 73.6million from it to get Xbox numbers. But that is not what EA has done so it is not EA's problem. Blame Dualshockers.
None the less, the numbers are only being argued here because MS deliberately hid them so long. At this point we are hungry for data, even if it is flawed.
 

ShinySunny

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It would make sense if they discount the PS/XB numbers with some estimation of how many people that already have a PS4/XB but upgraded to Pro/X so therefore the true console total would be lower since there arn't customers attach to it.

Maybe?
Of course, it only makes sense if they are projecting sales on active consumers and not about consoles being sold.
 

Nostremitus

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EA's estimates are based on EA game sells... so their number is most likely based on how many individual consoles purchased EA games or downloaded patches for EA games. It doesn't, and really can't, count those consoles that have never contacted EA's servers...
 

Jaded Alyx

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Oct 25, 2017
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If we are excluding Japan, then yes, all these numbers make sense. That would mean the Switch's numbers aren't as low as they seem, and the 103 million numbers comes down to:

65 million units for PS4 (removing the ~7 million it has sold in Japan)
38 million units for Xbox One (103-67)

Which seem like far more sensible numbers.
I'm going with this.
 

Cladyclad

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Nov 16, 2017
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Was 7.68 million was the most the Xbox sold in a year (2014)? If so That 29 million number is not off by much
 
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