February 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, March 12th

donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
318
ITT, predict for the NPD February 2019 retail period (February 3-March 2, 2019) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but SalesEra followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?
Trust me said:
To have fun? To share thoughts and speculation with a like mined group of people? To be able to communicate directly with individuals who study this industry for a living?
ethomaz said:
Since 2010 I guess we don't get official numbers anymore... that doesn't mean we don't get the numbers.

The ranking and results are based in real numbers.
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, March 12. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: February 3-March 2, 2019 (4 weeks, January was 4 weeks)
NPD Physical Results Release: Thursday, March 14 @ 4 p.m. EST (public thread with physical+digital posted 5 days later on March 19th ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K      [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000   [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000    [XB1] - 200000

Potential hardware impacting events in February:
Tax returns always seem to have a substantial impact on HW sales in February

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

January's Resuts
NSW - 284k
PS4 - 195K
XB1 - 101K

January 2018 NPD thread
February 2018 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 

julian

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,414
I’m not sure how much worse I can do compared to last month, so here we go:

[NSW] 315K
[PS4] 210K
[XB1] 120K
 
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Revolsin

Usage of alt-account.
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,373
Going by the pattern of this year's hardware drops and previous Jan to Feb correlation.

[NSW] 285K
[PS4] 280K
[X1] 131K
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,353
The Netherlands
[NSW] 350k
[PS4] 275k
[XB1] 145k

I could see PS4 win the month, even, but a slow release schedule + natural momentum decline makes me think Switch has a slightly better chance.

Edit: I forgot to factor in Switch price promotion, so I'm more confident in Switch being #1 this month now.
 
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Welfare

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,521
Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of January and February. Normally this is a simple month to month comparison as both January and February have 4 weeks, except every five to six years January becomes a 5 week month. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for February to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.

Code:
2012

Xbox 360 January: 270K / 4 = 67,500
Xbox 360 February: 426K / 4 = 106,500

Weekly average +58%

PS3 January: 195K / 4 = 48,750
PS3 February: 347K / 4 = 86,750

Weekly average +78%

3DS January: 175K / 4 = 43,750
3DS February: 263K / 4 = 65,750

Weekly average +50%

Notable Events in February

Xbox 360
Tax Returns

Final Fantasy XIII-2 [4 weeks]
SoulCalibur V [4 weeks]
Kingdoms of Amalur: Reckoning [3 weeks]
UFC Undisputed 3 [2 weeks]

PS3
Tax Returns

Twisted Metal [2 weeks] [221K]

Final Fantasy XIII-2 [4 weeks]
SoulCalibur V [4 weeks]
Kingdoms of Amalur: Reckoning [3 weeks]
UFC Undisputed 3 [2 weeks]

3DS
Tax Returns
Code:
2013

Xbox 360 January: 281K / 5 = 56,200
Xbox 360 February: 302K / 4 = 75,500

Weekly average +34%

PS3 January: 201K / 5 = 40,200
PS3 February: 262K / 4 = 65,500

Weekly average +63%

3DS January: 145K / 5 = 29,000
3DS February: 189K / 4 = 47,250

Weekly average +63%

Notable Events in February

Xbox 360
Tax Returns

Dead Space 3 [4 weeks]
Aliens: Colonial Marines [3 weeks]
Crysis 3 [2 weeks]
Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance [2 weeks] [>70k]

PS3
Tax Returns

Dead Space 3 [4 weeks]
Sly Cooper: Thieves in Time [4 weeks]
Aliens: Colonial Marines [3 weeks]
Crysis 3 [2 weeks]
Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance [2 weeks] [>130k]

3DS
Tax Returns

Fire Emblem: Awakening Special Blue 3DS bundle $199 [4 weeks]

Fire Emblem Awakening [4 weeks] [180K | Retail = 117K / Digital = 63K]
Code:
2014

Xbox 360 January: 48K / 4 = 12,000
Xbox 360 February: 114K / 4 = 28,500

Weekly average +138%

Xbox One January: 143K / 4 = 35,750
Xbox One February: 258K / 4 = 64,500

Weekly average +80%

PS3 January: 54K / 4 = 13,500
PS3 February: 102K / 4 = 25,500

Weekly average +89%

PS4 January: 271K / 4 = 67,750
PS4 February: 269K / 4 = 67,250

Weekly average -1%

3DS January: 97K / 4 = 24,250
3DS February: 153K / 4 = 38,250

Weekly average +58%

Notable Events in February

Xbox One
Tax Returns

The LEGO Movie Videogame [4 weeks]
Thief [1 week]
Plants vs Zombies: Garden Warfare [1 week]

PS4
Tax Returns / Supply constrained: Demand > Supply

The LEGO Movie Videogame [4 weeks]
Thief [1 week]

Xbox 360
Tax Returns

The LEGO Movie Videogame [4 weeks]
Lightning Returns: Final Fantasy XIII [3 weeks]
Thief [1 week]

PS3
Tax Returns

The LEGO Movie Videogame [4 weeks]
Lightning Returns: Final Fantasy XIII [3 weeks]
Thief [1 week]

3DS
Tax Returns

Bravely Default [4 weeks] [>200K]
The LEGO Movie Videogame [4 weeks]
Code:
2015

Xbox One January: 150K / 4 = 37,500
Xbox One February: 276K / 4 = 69,000

Weekly average +84%

PS4 January: 189K / 4 = 47,250
PS4 February: 342K / 4 = 85,500

Weekly average +81%

3DS January: 74K / 4 = 18,500
3DS February: 395K / 4 = 98,750

Weekly average +434%

Notable Events in February

Xbox One
Tax Returns

Evolve [3 weeks]
Dragon Ball: Xenoverse [1 week]

PS4
Tax Returns

Evolve [3 weeks]
Order 1886 [2 weeks] [19XK]
Dragon Ball: Xenoverse [1 week]

3DS
Tax Returns

The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 3D Special Themed New 3DS XL $199 [3 weeks]
Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate Special Themed New 3DS XL $229 [3 weeks]
New Black New 3DS XL $199 [3 weeks]
New Red New 3DS XL $199 [3 weeks] 

The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 3D [3 weeks] [515K]
Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate [3 weeks] [>290K]
Code:
2016

Xbox One January: 131K / 4 = 32,750
Xbox One February: 248K / 4 = 62,000

Weekly average +89%

PS4 January: 229K / 4 = 57,250
PS4 February: 405K / 4 = 101,250

Weekly average +77%

3DS January: 70K / 4 = 17,500
3DS February: 176K / 4 = 44,000

Weekly average +151%

Notable Events in February

Xbox One
Tax Returns

Name Your Game 500GB Bundle $349 [Forza 6/Tomb Raider/Gears UE/Rare Replay] [3 weeks]

Far Cry Primal [1 week] [157K]
Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 4 [3 weeks] [<97K]

PS4
Tax Returns

Far Cry Primal 1TB bundle $399 [1 week]

Street Fighter V [2 weeks] [~207K]
Far Cry Primal [1 week] [206K]
Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 4 [3 weeks] [<193K]

3DS
Tax Returns

Pokemon 20th Anniversary Edition New 3DS bundle $199 [1 week]
Fire Emblem Fates Special Themed New 3DS XL $199 [2 weeks]

Fire Emblem Fates: Birthright [2 weeks]
Fire Emblem Fates: Conquest [2 weeks]
Combined [>351K]
Code:
2017

Xbox One January: 158K / 4 = 39,500
Xbox One February: 215K / 4 = 53,750

Weekly average +36%

PS4 January: 211K / 4 = 52,750
PS4 February: 398K / 4 = 99,500

Weekly average +89%

Notable Events in February

Xbox One
Tax Returns / Earned-Income Tax Credit (EITC) and Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC) delayed to February 15

Price Cut $50 February 17th - February 25th [9 days] 500GB $249 / 1TB $299
Forza Horizon 3 500GB bundle $299 [3 weeks]
Halo Wars 2: Ultimate Edition 1TB bundle $349 [2 weeks]

For Honor [2 weeks]
Halo Wars 2 [1 week]

PS4
Tax Returns / Earned-Income Tax Credit (EITC) and Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC) delayed to February 15

PS4 500GB Price Cut $50 February 12th - February 25th [14 days] 500GB $249
Call of Duty Infinite Warfare Deluxe Edition Glacier White 500GB Bundle $299 [Walmart] [3 weeks]

Nioh [3 weeks]
For Honor [2 weeks]
Code:
2018 

Switch January: 275K / 5 = 55,000
Switch February: 279K / 4 = 69,750

Weekly average +27%

Xbox One January: 235K / 5 = 47,000
Xbox One February: 310K / 4 = 77,500

Weekly average +65%

PS4 January: 254K / 5 = 50,800
PS4 February: 363K / 4 = 90,750

Weekly average +79%

Notable Events in February

Switch
Tax Returns

Xbox One
Tax Returns

Price Cut $50 February 18th - March 3rd [14 days] 500GB $229 / 1TB $249
PUBG with every Xbox One X February 18th - February 24th [7 days]
PUBG 1TB Bundle $299 [2 weeks]

Kingdom Come Deliverance [3 weeks]

PS4
Tax Returns

GameStop Only: Trade in PS4/XB1/NSW and get up to $350 towards PS4 Pro. Offer valid 1/26/18 - 2/11/18 [9 days in January NPD / 8 days in February NPD]

Shadow of the Colossus [4 weeks]
Kingdom Come Deliverance [3 weeks]
Code:
2019 January Weekly Averages

Switch: 284K / 4 = 71,000
PS4: 195K / 4 = 48,750
Xbox One: 101K / 4 = 25,250

Notable Events in February

Switch
Tax Returns

Switch + $35 eShop code Bundle $299 [3 weeks]

Xbox One
Tax Returns

Xbox One X Fallout 76 1TB Bundles $399 [February 2 - March 31]
Xbox One X Bundles $449 / Xbox One S Bundles $249 [February 17 - March 2] [2 weeks]

Xbox One X Metro Saga 1TB Bundle $499 [$449 during price cut]
Xbox One S 1TB Anthem Bundle $299 [$249 during price cut]

Anthem [2 weeks]
Crackdown 3 [3 weeks] 
Far Cry: New Dawn [3 weeks] 
Metro Exodus [3 weeks] 
Jump Force [3 weeks]
Dead or Alive 6 [1 week] 

PS4
Tax Returns

Anthem [2 weeks]
Far Cry: New Dawn [3 weeks] 
Metro Exodus [3 weeks] 
Jump Force [3 weeks]
Dead or Alive 6 [1 week]
Notes
From one of the slowest months of the year to the (usually) biggest non holiday month of the year, February is a massive improvement over January, almost doubling sales. This is thanks to tax returns.

For 2019 specifically, I’ll post some potential spending affecting news. https://www.resetera.com/threads/average-tax-refund-down-8-4-percent-in-first-filing-week.98550/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tax-refunds-down-17-percent-160031259.html

Basically, average tax refunds are down 17% from 2018. This will be interesting to see how it affects MOM and YOY comparisons for the industry, if it even gets affected at all.

Xbox
The Xbox One has had strong surges in February compared to the massive drops in January from December. February 2014 showed a massive turnaround from the weak sales in January. 2015 benefited from a late January price cut back to $349, and 2016 had the launch of the Name Your Game bundle where you could choose 1 of 4 different games at $349. 2017 was pretty weak with only a 36% increase despite the $50 price cut. The PS4 sold extremely well at the same time so it’s possible that having less days at $249 is a reason for the under performance. The price cut also looked to have been a response to Sony’s cut to begin with so there was little time for sales to be boosted. 2018 was by far the XB1’s best performance with the launch of the Xbox One S 1TB PUBG bundle along with a $50 price cut down to $229 (500GB) and $249 (1TB) for 2 weeks and a special Xbox One X promotion that bundled PUBG with the purchase of a new system for 1 week.

2019 is a bit of wild month for Xbox. Coming off a disastrous 101K in January (only that high because of a late month price cut), they responded with a $100 price cut to the Fallout 76 One X bundles that lasts to the end of March, and for the last half of the month cut the price of the One S and other One X bundles by $50. This is in addition to the launch of Anthem, which may or not be a disappointment in sales. The question will be if all of that only sees the XB1 having an average weekly increase over January, or it actually boosts sales to more healthy numbers.

The Xbox One has so far averaged an increase of +71%, with a minimum of +36% (2017) and a maximum of +89% (2016).

Playstation
PS4 has a pretty clear outlier in 2014 as there were stock shortages for holiday 2013 and early 2014. Sales actually fell in February 2014 compared to every other console seeing a boost. 2015 had a much more reasonable 81% increase and 2016 increased 76%. February 2017 was the first time the PS4 received a temporary price drop and it was to $249, timed along with the new date for tax returns under EITC and ACTC resulting in a +89% increase. 2018 had a GameStop trade in deal for the PS4 Pro which helped it to an increase of +79%.

2019 doesn’t have much besides Anthem. No price promotions or deals, sales will pretty much be continued momentum.

The PS4 has so far averaged an increase of +81%, with a minimum of +77% (2015) and a maximum of +89% (2017). This excludes the 2014 drop.

Nintendo
Removing 2015 as that was the launch of the New 3DS XL the 3DS averaged an increase of +81%, with a minimum of +50% (2012) and a maximum of +151% (2016).

Switch is now the market leading console in sales for 2019 given its pretty comfortable lead in January and it should be expected that it performs like one this February. It even has a bundle including a free $35 eShop code. A pretty good deal for a system that continues to sell at launch price 2 years later.

Recap
February is the third strongest selling month of the year behind November and December. Massive, almost doubling sales from January unless January was a 5 week month.

The biggest February ever recorded back in the 7th was the Wii with 753,000 back in 2009. Second biggest? Xbox 360 with 535,000 in 2011.

The biggest February ever recorded in the 8th is the PS4 with 404,900 in 2016. Second biggest? PS4 again with 398,000 in 2017.
 
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Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
The tax return situation in the US is an absolute mess this year and it should have a negative impact on both Feb and Mar imo.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,748
jump Force huh
the overperforming anime trend is a bit much.


Xenoverse 3 is next year for sure.