February 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, March 12th

Oct 27, 2017
3,896
Did people have to pay less taxes during the year or the same?
Generally less, but it’s a big change from how things have worked for years. So people weren’t changing their spending habits accordingly and still expected the bigger refunds.
 
Oct 25, 2017
7,081
The Netherlands
Looks like the digital only Xbox One S will launch in May. https://www.windowscentral.com/xbox...tw_card&utm_content=62966&utm_campaign=social

It's going to be interesting to see what kind of impact it has on sales.
How do the economics work out for retailers with this system? Consicering it would be digital only, won't that take away most of the income retailers can get from the system, that is, the sale of retail games? If so, wouldn't retailers be acting against their own interest in stocking this system?
 

VX1

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,803
Europe
How do the economics work out for retailers with this system? Consicering it would be digital only, won't that take away most of the income retailers can get from the system, that is, the sale of retail games? If so, wouldn't retailers be acting against their own interest in stocking this system?
Indeed...i'm curious about this too.
 

MatPiscatella

The NPD Group - Video Game Industry Analyst
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
2,117
Carlsbad, CA
How do the economics work out for retailers with this system? Consicering it would be digital only, won't that take away most of the income retailers can get from the system, that is, the sale of retail games? If so, wouldn't retailers be acting against their own interest in stocking this system?
Game Card sales at retail continue to break records, while sales of Accessories such as Headsets and Gamepads are also at record levels. Things are changing, but still lots of money to be made at retail.

If the reports are true, retailers could just select to not carry those SKUs, but run the risk of alienating customers that come in to pick one up. Each retailer will approach this differently of course, but the market is what it is.
 
Game Card sales at retail continue to break records, while sales of Accessories such as Headsets and Gamepads are also at record levels. Things are changing, but still lots of money to be made at retail.
usually well-informed sources reported that microsoft promised to retailers that the build quality for xbox acessories will be lowered drastically, so brick and mortar stores will be more than compensated for the loss in boxed game sales. it's a win-win situation. MS labs already hired engineers of leading washing machine and tumble dryer manufatures to benefit from their expertise.
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,837
Anthem on top. This causes much debate on whether it's a flop or not.
Anthem being on top seems like a given to me, as I can't think of much else that came out in February that could challenge it, unless another older game just had really good legs.
 
Jan 6, 2019
1,418
We should have a NPD software predictions thread. Anyway, I'll just drop my top 10 here.
  1. Anthem
  2. Metro Exodus
  3. Crackdown 3
  4. Far Cry: New Dawn
  5. Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII
  6. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
  7. Jump Force
  8. Red Dead Redemption II
  9. NBA 2K19
  10. Kingdom Hearts III
Edit: Replaced RE2 with 2K19
 
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Nov 2, 2017
9,892
We should have a NPD software predictions thread. Anyway, I'll just drop my top 10 here.
  1. Anthem
  2. Metro Exodus
  3. Crackdown 3
  4. Far Cry: New Dawn
  5. Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII
  6. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
  7. Jump Force
  8. Red Dead Redemption II
  9. NBA 2K19
  10. Kingdom Hearts III
Edit: Replaced RE2 with 2K19
I doubt Crackdown will even be in the top 10.
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,375
Crackdown 3 will surprise with its ranking. Sea of Thieves and State of Decay 2 were supposed to be disappointments yet they were #2 and #1 in their launch months. Digital sales will carry Crackdown to a respectable launch, but March and after it'll disappear from the charts.

Anthem will be #1, and Far Cry and Crackdown should round out the top 3. Don't know which of those two will lead the other.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,953
Crackdown 3 will surprise with its ranking. Sea of Thieves and State of Decay 2 were supposed to be disappointments yet they were #2 and #1 in their launch months. Digital sales will carry Crackdown to a respectable launch, but March and after it'll disappear from the charts.

Anthem will be #1, and Far Cry and Crackdown should round out the top 3. Don't know which of those two will lead the other.
Far Cry is 40$ so it is at disadvantage.

Plus don't forget Jump Force, I am expecting it to open very well.
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,375
Far Cry is 40$ so it is at disadvantage.

Plus don't forget Jump Force, I am expecting it to open very well.
I would not be surprised if Jump Force and Metro are #4 and #5.

I forgot Far Cry was $40, so maybe Crackdown will #2. Jump Force could even be #3 in that case.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,953
I would not be surprised if Jump Force and Metro are #4 and #5.

I forgot Far Cry was $40, so maybe Crackdown will #2. Jump Force could even be #3 in that case.
Sounds more likely.

Jump Force ended being the 2nd most downloaded PS4 game in NA in February while Far Cry was 8th.
 
Dec 3, 2017
708
Crackdown 3 will surprise with its ranking. Sea of Thieves and State of Decay 2 were supposed to be disappointments yet they were #2 and #1 in their launch months. Digital sales will carry Crackdown to a respectable launch, but March and after it'll disappear from the charts.
Weren't both SoT and SoD2 #1 in their respective launch month?
 
Jan 6, 2019
1,418
We should have a NPD software predictions thread. Anyway, I'll just drop my top 10 here.
  1. Anthem
  2. Metro Exodus
  3. Crackdown 3
  4. Far Cry: New Dawn
  5. Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII
  6. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
  7. Jump Force
  8. Red Dead Redemption II
  9. NBA 2K19
  10. Kingdom Hearts III
Edit: Replaced RE2 with 2K19
In hindsight, I seriously lowballed Jump Force. I forgot Far Cry is $40, so it's probably a bit farther down, too.
 
Oct 27, 2017
8,197
UK
Crackdown 3 will surprise with its ranking. Sea of Thieves and State of Decay 2 were supposed to be disappointments yet they were #2 and #1 in their launch months. Digital sales will carry Crackdown to a respectable launch, but March and after it'll disappear from the charts.

Anthem will be #1, and Far Cry and Crackdown should round out the top 3. Don't know which of those two will lead the other.
I can't see CD3 even making the top 10.
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,474
[NSW] 305K
[PS4] 250K
[XB1] 115K

Edit: All Xbox Game Pass Exclusives will be top 3 in launch month then dissapear from the face of the earth.
 
Jan 6, 2019
1,418
Far Cry 5 was a good soldier for Ubisoft last year, but I don't think we can expect the same strong performance from New Dawn this year. New Dawn is $40, which puts it at a disadvantage in dollar sales rankings, and it didn't have that much hype ahead of release as Far Cry 5.
 
Nov 14, 2018
1,050
We should have a NPD software predictions thread. Anyway, I'll just drop my top 10 here.
  1. Anthem
  2. Metro Exodus
  3. Crackdown 3
  4. Far Cry: New Dawn
  5. Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII
  6. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
  7. Jump Force
  8. Red Dead Redemption II
  9. NBA 2K19
  10. Kingdom Hearts III
Edit: Replaced RE2 with 2K19
No NSMBU:DX eh?
 
Jan 6, 2019
1,418
I think the forum would come to a standstill if Crackdown charted at all.

I'm hoping it does for the entertainment.
All of the 60 Metacritic Xbox exclusives people love to hate have charted on the NPDs during their launch month. Don't expect Crackdown 3 to be any different. Maybe Crackdown 3 could miss the top 5 because of heavy competition (I don't think that will happen), but it's definitely going to make the top 10.