February 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, March 12th

Oct 8, 2018
1,965
damn Switch is doing great.
Anthem not even in the top 3 physical software? I know there is digital but still, this sounds like it performs way under expectations.
 

MrTired

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Oct 28, 2017
2,274
MagicPork also listed the three best selling games for retail only, and they were Smash, Jump Force and KH3.
From magicpork’s post. Top 3 physical are smash, jump force and KH3.
A huge budget multiplayer looter shooter got outsold by a jrpg that released last month. That is kind of crazy
Maybe a bit early but I think the UK chart was more indicative of the games sales than people wanted to believe.

I read that Microsoft spend the most on tv ads in USA, so i do expect better numbers than in January.
You got a link or have an idea where you read that?
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,270
XB1 definitely overperformed my expectations majorly. It’s a good sign the decline was healthier than expected.

Switch overperformed my expectations by a small amount. Everything continues to point to Switch having a massive year, especially once the major titles they have planned start dropping.

I got the PS4 pretty close. At this point it just continues to plug along and I expect it will remain steady most of the year, though obviously it will be down yoy most months due to how well it has sold in the past few years.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,241
Looks like almost all of us underestimated XB1 by a fair margin. Its performance this month is in line with what you would expect for a healthy decline, and is approximately in line with how PS4 is dropping YoY.
Yeh I agree, the decline is there but definitely not as bad as certain people are making out
 

MrTired

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Oct 28, 2017
2,274
It wasn't just the UK: the Spanish chart showed the same. In Japan, the debut was rather good but the weekly sales drop have been terrible. It was to be expected (also when looking at Benji's comment) that US would follow suit.
I knew that as well, but a whole load of people who don't follow sale's thread are convinced the UK sales has zero relevance to overall sale's. I think it's because it's the first data point we get.
 
Oct 25, 2017
7,081
The Netherlands
I knew that as well, but a whole load of people who don't follow sale's thread are convinced the UK sales has zero relevance to overall sale's. I think it's because it's the first data point we get.
There are obviously caveats to be made (for example, JRPGs like KH3 perform relatively worse in UK, and games on Nintendo platforms seem to do the same), but for XB1/PS4 in general, the UK is not too out of line with the industry at large: for a game like Anthem, a bad performance in the UK definitely does suggest a poor performance worldwide.
 
Oct 29, 2017
188
Another +30% month for the Switch (Jan 18 vs. 19 was 5 vs. 4 weeks). I think some of the later months (June onwards) might have even stronger increases YoY once the software stream really dials it up.
 

MrTired

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Oct 28, 2017
2,274
There are obviously caveats to be made (for example, JRPGs like KH3 perform relatively worse in UK, and games on Nintendo platforms seem to do the same), but for XB1/PS4 in general, the UK is not too out of line with the industry at large: for a game like Anthem, a bad performance in the UK definitely does suggest a poor performance worldwide.
I would through fighting games into that caveat as well but as you said it usually good indicator for worldwide performance. I might make a thread on this subject this weekend. This dismissive attitude towards data has really started to annoy me.
 
Oct 29, 2017
2,093
Over January and February Switch is about 16% up YoY with 1 less tracked week compared to last year.

With a limited release schedule over the first half and still seeing an improvement like this we might see some sort of crazyness from June and on in terms of Switch sales
 
Oct 25, 2017
14,628
wow Switch. When it gets a price drop and/or revision things will be crazy for a bit.


the eff at anthem. physical would have been expected to be higher.


not surprising this point at Jump Force. DBZ and anime games have been doing crazy well.
Heroes will be interesting since it's not traditional action. So we'll see if the trend of overperforming keeps up. And not on ps4 or xbox.
 
Oct 27, 2017
3,851
I would through fighting games into that caveat as well but as you said it usually good indicator for worldwide performance. I might make a thread on this subject this weekend. This dismissive attitude towards data has really started to annoy me.
That's actually a good idea. I have to admit that I have been guilty of downplaying UK's results in the past myself but after having followed the PAL charts for a while now I have come to the conclusion that the UK video game market is not really that much different from the rest of the world. Sure there are a few differences here and there (Crash or lower sales for JRPGs or Nintendo products) but which market doesn't have them (Japan is obsessed with Splatoon, Spain's leggiest Nintendo game is Mario Odyssey and Germany likes Farming Simulators for example). All in all it's not fair to dismiss UK's results because "lul COD and FIFA".
 
Oct 25, 2017
7,081
The Netherlands
wow Switch. When it gets a price drop and/or revision things will be crazy for a bit.


the eff at anthem. physical would have been expected to be higher.


not surprising this point at Jump Force. DBZ and anime games have been doing crazy well.
Heroes will be interesting since it's not traditional action. So we'll see if the trend of overperforming keeps up. And not on ps4 or xbox.
Anime also seems to be doing well on Switch judging by the Dragon Ball games, but the genre is also a question, as you said. We'll see how it goes!
 
Oct 25, 2017
14,628
Anime also seems to be doing well on Switch judging by the Dragon Ball games, but the genre is also a question, as you said. We'll see how it goes!
oh it's definitely more of a genre question. Seemingly every game has done well, even something low key like Boruto Shinobi Strikers.
But this one is less actiony.

The platform part was more a sidenote. But at the same time, anime sales are huge on ps4 and xbox, so it'll make some difference.
We'll just take it into account that it's exclusive when comparing its performance to recent games like jump force or shinobi striker
 
Oct 25, 2017
7,081
The Netherlands
oh it's definitely more of a genre question. Seemingly every game has done well, even something low key like Boruto Shinobi Strikers.
But this one is less actiony.

The platform part was more a sidenote. But at the same time, anime sales are huge on ps4 and xbox, so it'll make some difference.
We'll just take it into account that it's exclusive when comparing its performance to recent games like jump force or shinobi striker
Yeah, alright, that's fair. I don't think Switch is worse for anime sales compared to PS4, but combining PS4/XB1 should give an advantage to that pair, I agree.
 
Oct 27, 2017
7,976
Here it goes:

Switch: 1
PS4: 0.78
XBO: 0.62
3DS: 0.15
Others: 0.39

YoY:
Switch: +30%
PS4: -22%
XBO: -29%

Best selling software (physical only): Smash, Jump Force and KH3
Thanks MagicPork!

Switch did 279k last year, so that means it did 363k this year. PS4 did 363k last year (heh), and 283k this year. XB1 did 310k last year, and 220k-225k this year.

Switch seems to be keeping up the 30% increase in weekly average sales for the year so far.
Thanks for the numbers - consoles doing well overall and Bamco will be very happy about Jump Force.
 
Oct 29, 2017
188
NoA reported Smash Ultimate was at 5M US sell-through on Jan 30, 2019. Wonder how close to Brawl LTD it is by now with another two months tacked on (Brawl was at 4.17M for calendar 2008 per NPD, not sure about LTD).
 
Oct 27, 2017
3,896
Thank you, kindly pig. You should know I hate eating ham.....wait, why are you asking about bacon?

Looking at my guesses and, yep! I am clearly terrible at this. Lol.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,354
So, interestingly, my process to save the webpages for the thread for the parser to use runs at 1 minute past the hour local computer time, just in case my computer's time was off. When it saved page 4, Andromeda's post was not there. When it tried to save a prospective page 5, it got page 4 again (i.e. the last thread page), and Andromeda's post was there. So with this wierdly timed scenario, my process to save the webpages did technically pick it up, so Andromeda's prediction will be counted. (^_^)

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ResetERA Aggregate Predictions - Feb-2019

1. NSW - 326K (stddev: 41K)
2. PS4 - 249K (stddev: 38K)
3. XB1 - 149K (stddev: 31K)
Thanks donny2112 !
 
Jan 7, 2019
137
Thanks MP, this information is especially appreciated this week after we got the news that Media Create will stop provide weekly figures in Japan.

And I underestimated... everything, and by a wide margin. The suckage goes on.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,508
Nintendo should ship somewhere around 3.5 million Switch in Q4 WW. They have been consistently up 25-30% in Japan and US in tracked sales.

If Smash is still near the top of the software chart (let's say Top 5) in two months with numerous high profile releases like Kingdom Hearts 3, Resident Evil 2, Anthem, Crackdown 3, Metro, and Jump Force... Switch software should be staying crazy as well.
 
Oct 29, 2017
2,093
Nintendo should ship somewhere around 3.5 million Switch in Q4 WW. They have been consistently up 25-30% in Japan and US in tracked sales.
Actually the averiage over the first 10 weeks of the year - the average is roughly 47% in Japan :O
So unless they very much overshipped last quarter 3.5M should be the minimum for the quarter.
 
Nov 5, 2017
4,453
Nintendo should ship somewhere around 3.5 million Switch in Q4 WW. They have been consistently up 25-30% in Japan and US in tracked sales.
Actually assuming there's nothing funky going on with this year's shipments or last year's shipments a 25%-30% WW increase would mean a 3.6m/3.9m range for Q4 shipments.