February 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, March 12th

Welfare

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,521
Xbox did much better than I thought. Looks like the deals gave it some life again. Above February 2017's 215K so it isn't even the worst February ever!

PS4 and Switch are expected.
 

Ada

Member
Nov 28, 2017
1,339
People keep buying those bad anime cash ins so BN will keep on making them.
 

Welfare

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,521
2019
NSW: 363K / 4 = 90,750
PS4: 283K / 4 = 70,750
XB1: 225K / 4 = 56250

2018
PS4: 363K / 4 = 90,750
XB1: 310K / 4 = 77,500
NSW: 279K / 4 = 69,750

So PS4 will probably experience ~-20% drops this year and greater. January was -23% and February is -22%. March should suit and April/May will be significantly more in that case. Closer to ~40-50% drops those months.

XB1 will probably stick to ~-30% drops or higher throughout the year.

Switch looking to be up from 2018 by >+20% as in January the weekly average YOY was a +29% boost. Extremely well done performance if this remains the case and opens up discussions on when and what even the revision will be priced and marketed as, because oh boy, that's when Switch actually lets loose.
 

Welfare

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,521
Also on software, Kingdom Hearts 3 on the US Xbox store has actually shown some good legs. Even on the most played section it is ahead of February releases Jump Force, Far Cry New Dawn, and Crackdown 3. DMCV is only 2 spots ahead at #38 (KH3 #40). Staying power is pretty good for a JRPG almost 2 months after launch.

Other games in the vicinity of KH3 (+-5 ranks) include it doing better than Halo MCC, Gears 4, and Wildlands, and it being close to Halo 5 and ESO/Fallout 76.
 

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,867
Is February normally up due to tax returns? I never get my tax return back that fast.
 

Welfare

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,521
2012
360: 426K
PS3: 347K
WII: 224K

360/PS3 are much higher in their second to last year than XB1/PS4 but that is because of the massive boost Kinect and Move gave the systems late in the gen.
 

Raijinto

Member
Oct 28, 2017
6,459
Hmmm so it looks like the doom and gloom a few months ago by a few users here about the Switch's 'drought' against the stiff competition from the likes of Anthem and other AAA games that the system is missing was predictably asinine and a lot of hot air. It's selling great. As is Smash even more predictably.
 

Geg

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,459
Man did February even have any big releases on the Switch? Or is this all on the strength of Smash legs + the two Directs last month
 

Joseki

Member
Nov 5, 2017
4,815
Man did February even have any big releases on the Switch? Or is this all on the strength of Smash legs + the two Directs last month
No first party title released on Switch in February.

The next "big" game is Yoshi in March, then LABO in April, nothing in May and then from June to December is hell.
 

Mbolibombo

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,344
Biggest releases in February for Switch.. Trials Rising, Wargroove, Final Fantasy IX, Lego Movie 2 and Tetris 99.

E-shop credit and the Direct drove the sales for the Switch.
 

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,867
Man did February even have any big releases on the Switch? Or is this all on the strength of Smash legs + the two Directs last month
There is an innate appeal to the Switch that is pushing it right now and it has reached a software threshold that a lot of people are willing to get one with Smash, Mario Kart, Zelda, and Super Mario Odyssey. It has a bright future too at this point with a diverse, appealing lineup for the rest of the year. It clearly doesn't need a big release in a month to sell right now.
 

Dougieflesh

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
1,996
Xbox did better than we all expected. Good for them. I can’t wait to see the full software rankings.
 

Welfare

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,521
NSW January: 284,000 / 4 = 71,000
NSW February: 363,000 / 4 = 90,750

+28%

PS4 January: 195,000 / 4 = 48,750
PS4 February: 283,000 / 4 = 70,750

+45%

XB1 January: 101,000 / 4 = 25,250
XB1 February: 225,000 / 4 = 56,250

+123%

Like Xbox, PS4 had its second lowest February, only ahead of 2014's 269K, when it was still supply constrained. This is also the first time since then that PS4 has sold under 300K in February.
 

Jonno394

Member
Oct 25, 2017
810
Switch doing good work. Still not too sure how much they stuffed the channels in Q3, because that 17.5m looks like it's going to be easily beaten.

Q4 should have ~900k sold in Japan, ~1.1sold in NA (based on 650k+10% for Canada- 715k PLUS say 300k in March for USA) and Probably around the same for RoW.
 

Jbone115

Member
Oct 25, 2017
595
NSW January: 284,000 / 4 = 71,000
NSW February: 363,000 / 4 = 90,750

+28%

PS4 January: 195,000 / 4 = 48,750
PS4 February: 283,000 / 4 = 70,750

+45%

XB1 January: 101,000 / 4 = 25,250
XB1 February: 225,000 / 4 = 56,250

+123%.
This really puts in perspective how much XB1 recovered this month.
 

Hero

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,973
Switch and Smash are notably up Q1 seemingly worldwide. Remember when people thought Smash wasn't going to be a big system seller and/or continue to sell well after launch month?

Things will get crazy as we get closer to Pokemon and/or the new remodel.
 

Simba1

Member
Dec 5, 2017
2,012
Nintendo should ship somewhere around 3.5 million Switch in Q4 WW. They have been consistently up 25-30% in Japan and US in tracked sales.

If Smash is still near the top of the software chart (let's say Top 5) in two months with numerous high profile releases like Kingdom Hearts 3, Resident Evil 2, Anthem, Crackdown 3, Metro, and Jump Force... Switch software should be staying crazy as well.
Switch is around 50% up in Japan, and for first two months looking at weeks sales around 30%, so WW Switch could be easily be around 30-35% up for Q1, and that would mean around 4m shipped units in Q4, so that would mean around 18.5m for this FY.
IMO 18m for current FY looks locked, unless Nintendo overshiped Switch units last quarter so they ship less units this quarter,
also it seems that Switch will be at around 36m after 25 months on market.
 
Last edited:

KennyX

Member
Nov 21, 2018
1,225
Switch is around 50% up in Japan, and for first two months looking at weeks sales around 30%, so WW Switch could be easily be around 30-35% up for Q1, and that would mean around 4m shipped units in Q4, so that would mean around 18.5m for this FY.
IMO 18m for current FY looks locked, unless Nintendo overshiped Switch units last quarter so they ship less units this quarter.
Last year inventory was low.
This year not so much.

So the sold trough increase could different from the shipped increase.
Ps4 has around 2 million units on shelf at the end of the holidays. But we don't have shipped and sold trough comparisons for the Switch.
 

cakely

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,078
Chicago
We love you, Pork!

Bad start for my predictions.

Also ... I would have guessed that Anthem would have been #1 in software, but wow, nope.
 

klanar

Member
Jun 9, 2018
293
How does 2015 ps4 compare with switch numbers? Switch slightly better performance? I'm not really sure what I look up online for this.
 

Welfare

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,521
How does 2015 ps4 compare with switch numbers? Switch slightly better performance? I'm not really sure what I look up online for this.
PS4 February 2015: 342K
NSW February 2019: 363K

Switch had a much better January, 189K VS 284K.

Other PS4 February's.

PS4 February 2016: 405K
PS4 February 2017: 398K
PS4 February 2018: 363K
 

Welfare

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,521
Xbox One February History
2014: 258K
2015: 276K
2016: 248K
2017: 215K
2018: 310K
2019: 225K

Not far off from what it usually does.

PS4 February History
2014: 269K
2015: 342K
2016: 405K
2017: 398K
2018: 363K
2019: 283K
 

Dwebble

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
2,988
Between these figures and the Japanese figures, it looks to me like Switch may be hitting a critical mass where the concept, the back catalogue and now the announced future lineup are already guaranteeing consistently good, healthy figures, without the necessity of new software to push them to the top.

Couple that with the lineup that Nintendo's got on the docket from June onwards, and we could be looking at some remarkable figures to come.
 

WestEgg

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,512
January is always a slow month. It is not a good metric. You need to compare with other February months. This February was horrible for PS4 and Xbox one..
What do you think the expectations were? Most people here were predicting 100k less than what it ended up being, and these consoles are at the end of their life cycles, especially Xbox as they've already announced they're going to talk about their next gen console this year at E3.
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
192
Switch with the highest first 2 month total this gen I believe. Off the back of the best January and a strong February. 2015 PS4 is the best 12-month calendar year this gen and Switch 2018 was just barely behind it, so we have very high probability for best calendar year this generation in 2019.

Once the pace picks up with price-cut/revision/software release stream, we can start to gauge just how high it will go. Peak 360 territory (6.5-7M) or Wii/DS territory (8-9M) - though nothing will touch their peak years (10-11M).
 

Spiegel

Member
Oct 26, 2017
115
Where there any kind of notable deals for Switch, Ps4 and xbox this February?
https://www.resetera.com/threads/february-2019-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-march-12th.102857/post-18464944

Xbox One


Xbox One X Fallout 76 1TB Bundles $399 [February 2 - March 31]
Xbox One X Bundles $449 / Xbox One S Bundles $249 [February 17 - March 2] [2 weeks]

Xbox One X Metro Saga 1TB Bundle $499 [$449 during price cut]
Xbox One S 1TB Anthem Bundle $299 [$249 during price cut]




PS4

Nothing


Switch

Switch + 35$ eshop $299 [February 15 - ????]
 

Welfare

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,521
Where there any kind of notable deals for Switch, Ps4 and xbox this February?
My post here lists as many potential events as possible. https://www.resetera.com/threads/february-2019-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-march-12th.102857/#post-18464944

PS4: Nothing

Switch: Switch + $35 eShop code Bundle $299

Xbox One: Whole bunch of deals below

Xbox One X Fallout 76 1TB Bundles $399 [February 2 - March 31]
Xbox One X Bundles $449 / Xbox One S Bundles $249 [February 17 - March 2] [2 weeks]

Xbox One X Metro Saga 1TB Bundle $499 [$449 during price cut]
Xbox One S 1TB Anthem Bundle $299 [$249 during price cut]
 

Ruslnis

Member
Feb 26, 2018
1,728
https://www.resetera.com/threads/february-2019-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-march-12th.102857/post-18464944

Xbox One


Xbox One X Fallout 76 1TB Bundles $399 [February 2 - March 31]
Xbox One X Bundles $449 / Xbox One S Bundles $249 [February 17 - March 2] [2 weeks]

Xbox One X Metro Saga 1TB Bundle $499 [$449 during price cut]
Xbox One S 1TB Anthem Bundle $299 [$249 during price cut]




PS4

Nothing


Switch

Switch + 35$ eshop $299 [February 15 - ????]
My post here lists as many potential events as possible. https://www.resetera.com/threads/february-2019-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-march-12th.102857/#post-18464944

PS4: Nothing

Switch: Switch + $35 eShop code Bundle $299

Xbox One: Whole bunch of deals below

Xbox One X Fallout 76 1TB Bundles $399 [February 2 - March 31]
Xbox One X Bundles $449 / Xbox One S Bundles $249 [February 17 - March 2] [2 weeks]

Xbox One X Metro Saga 1TB Bundle $499 [$449 during price cut]
Xbox One S 1TB Anthem Bundle $299 [$249 during price cut]

Thank you.
Sony should get on that deals train if they want hardware to sell better