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February 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, March 12th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
I mean, not really? They are still doing well for entering the 6th year on the market. They aren't going to win many months from Nintendo when you consider this just just the switches 3rd year and you saw the growth PS4 had from year 2 to 3.
They have shown they are more interested in selling consoles at a profit than just moving more units.
PS4 sales are in a good spot given price hasn't budged in over 2 years. There isn't much you can do against the eventual fall in sales so Sony don't want to do much at this point.
I'll keep saying it until about September but I think the super slim for $249 will be out by the end of September. Until then I don't see Sony doing deals outside of June's Days of Play sale.
I think there were various PS4 bundles with COD/Spiderman (and Pro+RDR2) at below the value of console + game (?)
They are doing just fine with hardware sales considering. And just think what they are selling in Europe where they sell far more than here in a typical month.
Thing is... Their hardware continues to sell just fine for a nearly 6 year old hardware, without any deal whatsoever, which is kind of amazing.
If memory serves, due to temp price drops and bundles during previous 3 years Q1 (particularly 2016/ 2017), this might have been the most expensive the PS4 has been on average in the past 4 years...
Speaking globally IIRC the Switch will have to ship something like 19-19.5M for the FY to match the PS4 after it's next holiday season after March. Meaning 4.5-5M this quarter. I think they can get close to 4M but not too far ahead of that.
US wise I have no idea.
With NA and Japan selling 1M HW each for Q4, you think EU and rotw will follow suit with good increases? I feel that Japan had the highest increases this quarter and will prob have 30% share of shipments.
This. They could break records if they decide to sell for $200, but they want that extra cash in their pockets.
PS4 is more than 5 years old and still costs 300, crazy when you think about it.
Yeah I expect all territories have an increase but it won't be as big as Japan's. US is ~30% up YOY on a weekly basis whereas Japan is now at like ~47% up YOY or so. ROTW will probably be more like the US, maybe a bit less.
As for their final Q4 number it will depend a lot on whether or not Q3 was overshipped at all. I'd say we're looking at something like 3.6-3.9M sell-through for the quarter.
You were saying their sales would collapse. PS4 with no deals sold 280k and all the deals Xbox had got it over 220k, Honestly the sales are looking healthy for both so late in the game, not anything like a collapse.
Also, Xbox dominated TV ad spending in February. No doubt that helped its performance so people should really take that into consideration as well.
Well if globally Switch is up 30% yoy then using last years Q4 shipment as a base that would give us 3.79 million. Nintendo themselves forecasted 2.5 million and I refuse to believe that they thought that Switch would somehow have lower sell trough this Q4 than last year. To me this indicates that they knew that they overshipped during holiday season so I don't think that 3.79 million is realistic even if direct yoy increases would point to it. Something like 3 to 3.5 million would be my guess. Q3 and Q4 are the quarters where you can see big differences between sell trough and shipments. For example back in 2017 Sony sold trough more consoles during Q4 than they shipped.
Funny thing I noticed: in Japan, Switch sales are headed for a 980k-990k first quarter of 2019. In the US, we are currently at 284k + 363k = 647k. For the US to beat Japan's Q1, it needs to sell 330k-340k in March. Last March, it did 308k, so it needs to be up YoY by 7.2%-10.4%. It will probably reach that, but the fact that such a high number is needed shown how well the system has sold in Japan this quarter.
Benji Japan saw a massive Pokémon effect, raising the baseline almost 20k from 53k to 70k. Have you seen hardware sales spike after the Pokémon Direct in the US, too?
Benji Japan saw a massive Pokémon effect, raising the baseline almost 20k from 53k to 70k. Have you seen hardware sales spike after the Pokémon Direct in the US, too?
That would be behind PS4 which was at 37.7 million shipped after 25 months and being $100 more expensive.
https://www.psu.com/news/ps4-has-shipped-37-7-million-units-worldwide/
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Goes to show how bad Xbox is doing worldwide when switch is so close in such a small amount of time.
Oh, numbers surely show us how the sales are good for everyone. But there is other side of the story. I slow months, what MS needs to do for X1 to sell it to customers unlike Sony or Nintendo in US and especially ROTW?
I just realized that March is a 5 week tracking period, we could be looking at a 400k month for switch.
Yup I remember very well. It was a mess frankly in the Nov/Dec threads.
April onwards will look very bad for PS4 and XB1. March should be close to February because it's 5 weeks but after that is when the comparison to 2018 looks worse.
For PS4 specifically, the only months it'll be above 200K outside of Q4 that are left are March, June, and September. There won't be another +300K month other than the Switch.
Great numbers and Xbox One surprised us once again :eyes_emoji:
You won't be able to make a fair comparison between both consoles due to different launch periods anyways so can we maybe drop the pissing contest?
You won't be able to make a fair comparison between both consoles due to different launch periods anyways so can we maybe drop the pissing contest?
Would love to know the answer to this as well.
Switch is going to go on one heck of a tear later this year once the big titles start dropping.
It could break record of best selling console in it's 6th year but something like that not worth the profit .
Also it seems like Sony is pushing deals only in markets where they really are doing poorly like Japan, they don't really need it in the US.
Kirby isn't really a game that pushes a lot of hardware, so we should see the weekly average increase just like we did in January/February imo.
Both Jan and Feb had 30% increases in weekly avg, a 30% increase for March means 500K !!!
Good to know, I guess last year was a weird case where January had 5 weeks as well
True, it was a special year needed to recalibrate the tracking calendar, since a year has 365/366 days but a tracking year has only 52 × 7 = 364 days.
Extremely well, in combination with tax returns being a mess in the US, I thought the decline would be far greater for both PS4 and Xbox.
Pretty sure Switch wasn't overshipped at the end of 2018. We know Shipment was at 32,27 mio. at the end of 2018, and sell-through was >30 mio. at the end of January. With the numbers for January in US and Japan, sell-through globally in January should be slightly below 1 million, which puts the difference between shipment and sell-through at ~3 million units at the end of 2018. That should be a pretty typical "buffer" for shipments at the rate the console sells, i.e. 2-3 months. For comparison, there was a 2,6 mio. difference between PS4 shipment and sell-through at the same timepoint, which would fit nicely with the expected sales of PS4 going forward.
I agree with you though that Nintendo will probably ship less than they sell-through in Q1, that way they can potentially ship more consoles next FY to restore the buffer. The reduced FY target of 17 mio. consoles gives them a bit leeway to potentially engineer bigger growth for next FY.
Their reported sell-through numbers used to be specifically only for the major markets (US, EU, JP) and not the smaller markets. Since that blurb specifically mentions the number includes sales outside of the major markets I guess they are now able to get tracked data for those smaller markets?
Ps4 inventory was the following in early January
1.4 million in 2015
1.8 million in 2016
3.7 million in 2017
2.9 million in 2018
2.6 million in 2019
I read through that Q3 report from Nintendo, and what suprised me is that Asia is expanding way faster than the 3ds This could lead to a healthy LTD for that market, and if it applies to many small markets, we could be looking at a really nice LTD for switch in the end.
Yeah, PS4 will launch aligned will curently be above Switch because just had its 3. holiday season, Switch will again be above PS4 launch aligned when again has its next Holiday season...because they had different time of releases.
Talking about prices, Switch had $100 lower price point than PS4, but PS4 was strongest hardware on market, had 500GB, BD player...while Switch is hybrid...in other words, both consoles had right launch prices, sales proves that.
But when you compare them, difference is that Switch still has launch price point, it selling for $300 without game, on other hand PS4 had permanent price cut in less than 2 years on market.