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February 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, March 12th

WestEgg

WestEgg

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Oct 25, 2017
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Almost 40 years ago, Shigeru Miyamoto had to quickly repurpose Popeye as a red and blue jumping man to star in a Hail Mary effort to salvage a failing space shooter arcade game and Nintendo's hopes for a place in the western video game market. Today he has a pseudo Holiday and is still one of the most powerful selling forces in the world.

God do I love Mario.
 
Benji

Benji

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Thinking of doing a post NPD wrap up video as well as March predictions on YouTube

Any interest in something like that?
 
freeradical

freeradical

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Oct 27, 2017
514
Benji said:
Thinking of doing a post NPD wrap up video as well as March predictions on YouTube

Any interest in something like that?
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The Emperor

The Emperor

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Oct 25, 2017
2,790
KH3 being #3 individual sku is the most surprising thing tbh. So happy such a great game is doing well.

Anthem not in top 3 individual sku's is horrifying though not shocking as UK sales warned us (and yes...UK sales are a generally reliable indicator of game performances still)
 
Sonicfan059

Sonicfan059

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Mar 4, 2018
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Simba1 said:
Yeah, PS4 will launch aligned will curently be above Switch because just had its 3. holiday season, Switch will again be above PS4 launch aligned when again has its next Holiday season...because they had different time of releases.

Talking about prices, Switch had $100 lower price point than PS4, but PS4 was strongest hardware on market, had 500GB, BD player...while Switch is hybrid...in other words, both consoles had right launch prices, sales proves that.
But when you compare them, difference is that Switch still has launch price point, it selling for $300 without game, on other hand PS4 had permanent price cut in less than 2 years on market.
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You also have to consider the PS4 had a direct competitor that launched at the same time which was very similar to it. Worldwide it didn't slow it down much but in certain markets like NA one wasn't overly favored over another and were interchangeable in the general public's minds. Fanboys would have you think differently but seeing as the PS4 will likely only end up 5-6M ahead shows a different story.

Switch has no direct competition in that there isn't another similar hybrid console by a big competitor and what was already on the market was not launched at the same time and several years old by 2017. PS/Xbox are still competing with Nintendo but we've seen that PS4 has very little effect by what Switch does and Switch has very little effect by what PS4 does because they are so different.
 
Simba1

Simba1

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Dec 5, 2017
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Sonicfan059 said:
You also have to consider the PS4 had a direct competitor that launched at the same time which was very similar to it. Worldwide it didn't slow it down much but in certain markets like NA one wasn't overly favored over another and were interchangeable in the general public's minds. Fanboys would have you think differently but seeing as the PS4 will likely only end up 5-6M ahead shows a different story.

Switch has no direct competition in that there isn't another similar hybrid console by a big competitor and what was already on the market was not launched at the same time and several years old by 2017. PS/Xbox are still competing with Nintendo but we've seen that PS4 has very little effect by what Switch does and Switch has very little effect by what PS4 does because they are so different.
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Direct competition that was coming from huge initial backlash (always online, not suporting used games), that was weaker than PS4 and more expensive,
between PS4 and XB1, PS4 was easy choice for most people. Also, both PS4/XB1 arrived after around 8 years of previous gen and people were hungry for next gen consoles.

Switch didn't had direct competition but was coming after Nintendo biggest fail ever (not counting Virtual Boy), and almost without any 3rd party support at launch,
so its not like Switch was destined to be successful.

At end, different type of consoles, different reasons why they are so popular, but dont act like everything goes in favour of Switch when you comparing PS4 and Switch sales because it doesnt.
 
Sonicfan059

Sonicfan059

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Simba1 said:
Direct competition that was coming from huge initial backlash (always online, not suporting used games), that was weaker than PS4 and more expensive,
between PS4 and XB1, PS4 was easy choice for most people. Also, both PS4/XB1 arrived after around 8 years of previous gen and people were hungry for next gen consoles.

Switch didn't had direct competition but was coming after Nintendo biggest fail ever (not counting Virtual Boy), and almost without any 3rd party support at launch,
so its not like Switch was destined to be successful.

At end, different type of consoles, different reasons why they are so popular, but dont act like everything goes in favour of Switch when you comparing PS4 and Switch sales because it doesnt.
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I'm not acting like that, I'm just pointing out a difference that is often overlooked. The reasons already brought up including what I mentioned are why no one can directly compare them in a traditional sense.

As for Xbox having huge backlash it hurt it but there were still almost as many willing to buy one as there were people willing to buy PS4s in the NA region as it had a huge fan base despite the shortcomings.
 
SilverX

SilverX

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Jan 21, 2018
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only_fools_&_horses said:
Oh, numbers surely show us how the sales are good for everyone. But there is other side of the story. I slow months, what MS needs to do for X1 to sell it to customers unlike Sony or Nintendo in US and especially ROTW?
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Right, but I was expecting things to be worse for MS considering the last two NPDs had some terrible numbers for them. They always do deals, but this time it had a decent sales effect. Must have been all the marketing deals (Metro, Athem, etc.) and the $100 off the X.

Welfare said:
April onwards will look very bad for PS4 and XB1. March should be close to February because it's 5 weeks but after that is when the comparison to 2018 looks worse.

For PS4 specifically, the only months it'll be above 200K outside of Q4 that are left are March, June, and September. There won't be another +300K month other than the Switch.
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You pretty much just left out the months that historically never have great sales for any platform. With the way they are profiting off the PS4 with little push, I doubt those months are all that important either way. Lets see how April/May are for the PS4 though with Days Gone.
 
Simba1

Simba1

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Dec 5, 2017
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Sonicfan059 said:
I'm not acting like that, I'm just pointing out a difference that is often overlooked. The reasons already brought up including what I mentioned are why no one can directly compare them in a traditional sense.

As for Xbox having huge backlash it hurt it but there were still almost as many willing to buy one as there were people willing to buy PS4s in the NA region as it had a huge fan base despite the shortcomings.
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Well you do, you mentioned only reasons that go in favor of PS4, and like Switch didn't had any problems.

Well there was reason why XB1 had $100 price cut only 6 months after launch.
 
DeuceGamer

DeuceGamer

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Oct 27, 2017
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sfortunato said:
Mario Tennis Aces revitalized the Mario sport sub-franchise so I'm expecting a big Mario golf game next year.
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Golf seems like a good bet by the end of next year, but hopefully a Mario Soccer game is also in the works. Both should be fairly good complimentary games to the heavy hitters and will help flesh out the library.
 

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Holy shit, Nintendo did great this month as well. It seems pretty fair to say that Nintendo will take january and february with switch every year.
 
Joltik

Joltik

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DeuceGamer said:
Golf seems like a good bet by the end of next year, but hopefully a Mario Soccer game is also in the works. Both should be fairly good complimentary games to the heavy hitters and will help flesh out the library.
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There is also the possible announcement of a Mario & Sonic at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics title some time in the future.
 
Asuka3+1

Asuka3+1

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Wow, 30% YoY by what? 2D mario and spill over hype of Smash?? Nintendo just needed to streamline their pipeline a little bit more, and a long as they can make 1 game for month in between they are set.
 
Sonicfan059

Sonicfan059

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Simba1 said:
Well you do, you mentioned only reasons that go in favor of PS4, and like Switch didn't had any problems.

Well there was reason why XB1 had $100 price cut only 6 months after launch.
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Because the person I quoted already had reasons that favor Switch which I didn't disagree with. There are reasons for both doing well but very different circumstances.
 
Welfare

Welfare

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First 5 months of the PS4 compared to XB1 isn't that accurate as the PS4 was limited by supply. After March it was very clear who would lead when PS4 sold more than XB1 with Titanfall.

The hardcore audience kept post launch XB1 numbers up but after Titanfall, when every one willing to buy the XB1 at $499 jumped in, numbers sank immediately.

The Xbox brand in the US is powerful but it can't help an overpriced and underpowered console outsell an alternative. Only get it close.
 
Shadow of the Void

Shadow of the Void

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Feb 9, 2018
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Just out of curiosity, does anybody have the full yearly numbers for the 3DS for 2017 & 2018, even if it's only rounded to the nearest ten thousand or something? Monthly estimates (at least the ones I was aware of) were so spotty that it was impossible to extrapolate anything for the year as a whole.
 
Kouriozan

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Oct 25, 2017
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It was kinda obvious 2019 would be THE Switch year while Sony/Microsoft ready up their next gens.
I'm still surprised by how much it's up YoY, you would think results were average if you follow investors' mindset. (Yeah this is another Nintendo stocks are undervalued :p)
 
julian

julian

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Oct 27, 2017
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Benji said:
Thinking of doing a post NPD wrap up video as well as March predictions on YouTube

Any interest in something like that?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Benji in January: too much pressure from Internet haters, I might not make as many predictions as last year.
Benji in March: Fuck the haters! I'm making videos!
 
Benji

Benji

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julian said:
Benji in January: too much pressure from Internet haters, I might not make as many predictions as last year.
Benji in March: Fuck the haters! I'm making videos!
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Yeah I'm feeling MUCH better mentally overall than I have in a long time. And I've been frustrated with the sales discussion on YouTube for a while

I'm all in now, first video will probably go up tonight with a channel overview
 
Raijinto

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Benji said:
Yeah I'm feeling MUCH better mentally overall than I have in a long time. And I've been frustrated with the sales discussion on YouTube for a while

I'm all in now, first video will probably go up tonight with a channel overview
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Will watch!

Good to hear you're feeling better.
 
Benji

Benji

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Raijinto said:
Will watch!

Good to hear you're feeling better.
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Just make sure to keep expectations in check

I'm not putting any budget into this or trying to become a "YouTube Star". Its more for fun and to at least try to get some real legitimate gaming sales discussion going on YouTube

I'm not expecting this to get a ton of interest or anything but maybe we can get some small discussion going on there. Will be doing Q and A in regards to results for example
 
Pooroomoo

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Benji said:
Just make sure to keep expectations in check

I'm not putting any budget into this or trying to become a "YouTube Star". Its more for fun and to at least try to get some real legitimate gaming sales discussion going on YouTube

I'm not expecting this to get a ton of interest or anything but maybe we can get some small discussion going on there. Will be doing Q and A in regards to results for example
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Can't this put you in risk of getting "outed" ? Or is whatever you reveal ok with the people in charge, wherever you work?
 
DecoReturns

DecoReturns

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Make sure you make obnoxious Clickbait titles with matching Thumbnails on your videos, Benji.

(I'm joking. Please don't do that lol)
 
Welfare

Welfare

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EXCLUSIVE: NPD Insider CONFIRMS Video Game Sales Are DYING

*Circle and point to chartz numbers and a deformed Fortnite face
 
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