-
Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
February 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, March 12th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
2019
NSW: 363K / 4 = 90,750
PS4: 283K / 4 = 70,750
XB1: 225K / 4 = 56250
2018
PS4: 363K / 4 = 90,750
XB1: 310K / 4 = 77,500
NSW: 279K / 4 = 69,750
So PS4 will probably experience ~-20% drops this year and greater. January was -23% and February is -22%. March should suit and April/May will be significantly more in that case. Closer to ~40-50% drops those months.
XB1 will probably stick to ~-30% drops or higher throughout the year.
Switch looking to be up from 2018 by >+20% as in January the weekly average YOY was a +29% boost. Extremely well done performance if this remains the case and opens up discussions on when and what even the revision will be priced and marketed as, because oh boy, that's when Switch actually lets loose.
NSW: 363K / 4 = 90,750
PS4: 283K / 4 = 70,750
XB1: 225K / 4 = 56250
2018
PS4: 363K / 4 = 90,750
XB1: 310K / 4 = 77,500
NSW: 279K / 4 = 69,750
So PS4 will probably experience ~-20% drops this year and greater. January was -23% and February is -22%. March should suit and April/May will be significantly more in that case. Closer to ~40-50% drops those months.
XB1 will probably stick to ~-30% drops or higher throughout the year.
Switch looking to be up from 2018 by >+20% as in January the weekly average YOY was a +29% boost. Extremely well done performance if this remains the case and opens up discussions on when and what even the revision will be priced and marketed as, because oh boy, that's when Switch actually lets loose.
Also on software, Kingdom Hearts 3 on the US Xbox store has actually shown some good legs. Even on the most played section it is ahead of February releases Jump Force, Far Cry New Dawn, and Crackdown 3. DMCV is only 2 spots ahead at #38 (KH3 #40). Staying power is pretty good for a JRPG almost 2 months after launch.
Other games in the vicinity of KH3 (+-5 ranks) include it doing better than Halo MCC, Gears 4, and Wildlands, and it being close to Halo 5 and ESO/Fallout 76.
Other games in the vicinity of KH3 (+-5 ranks) include it doing better than Halo MCC, Gears 4, and Wildlands, and it being close to Halo 5 and ESO/Fallout 76.
It would need exceptional legs to do that at this point, which RPGs typically don't have.
Hmmm so it looks like the doom and gloom a few months ago by a few users here about the Switch's 'drought' against the stiff competition from the likes of Anthem and other AAA games that the system is missing was predictably asinine and a lot of hot air. It's selling great. As is Smash even more predictably.
Maybe the Directs helped a bit? The Pokemon Direct definitely had an impact in Japan anyway.
No first party title released on Switch in February.
The next "big" game is Yoshi in March, then LABO in April, nothing in May and then from June to December is hell.
Biggest releases in February for Switch.. Trials Rising, Wargroove, Final Fantasy IX, Lego Movie 2 and Tetris 99.
E-shop credit and the Direct drove the sales for the Switch.
E-shop credit and the Direct drove the sales for the Switch.
Sony was right to delay Days Gone strategically to April, that February was indeed too crowded in huge new releases #lol
There is an innate appeal to the Switch that is pushing it right now and it has reached a software threshold that a lot of people are willing to get one with Smash, Mario Kart, Zelda, and Super Mario Odyssey. It has a bright future too at this point with a diverse, appealing lineup for the rest of the year. It clearly doesn't need a big release in a month to sell right now.
Xbox did better than we all expected. Good for them. I can't wait to see the full software rankings.
NSW January: 284,000 / 4 = 71,000
NSW February: 363,000 / 4 = 90,750
+28%
PS4 January: 195,000 / 4 = 48,750
PS4 February: 283,000 / 4 = 70,750
+45%
XB1 January: 101,000 / 4 = 25,250
XB1 February: 225,000 / 4 = 56,250
+123%
Like Xbox, PS4 had its second lowest February, only ahead of 2014's 269K, when it was still supply constrained. This is also the first time since then that PS4 has sold under 300K in February.
NSW February: 363,000 / 4 = 90,750
+28%
PS4 January: 195,000 / 4 = 48,750
PS4 February: 283,000 / 4 = 70,750
+45%
XB1 January: 101,000 / 4 = 25,250
XB1 February: 225,000 / 4 = 56,250
+123%
Like Xbox, PS4 had its second lowest February, only ahead of 2014's 269K, when it was still supply constrained. This is also the first time since then that PS4 has sold under 300K in February.
Deleted member 59
Guest
Switch doing good work. Still not too sure how much they stuffed the channels in Q3, because that 17.5m looks like it's going to be easily beaten.
Q4 should have ~900k sold in Japan, ~1.1sold in NA (based on 650k+10% for Canada- 715k PLUS say 300k in March for USA) and Probably around the same for RoW.
Q4 should have ~900k sold in Japan, ~1.1sold in NA (based on 650k+10% for Canada- 715k PLUS say 300k in March for USA) and Probably around the same for RoW.
This really puts in perspective how much XB1 recovered this month.
Switch and Smash are notably up Q1 seemingly worldwide. Remember when people thought Smash wasn't going to be a big system seller and/or continue to sell well after launch month?
Things will get crazy as we get closer to Pokemon and/or the new remodel.
Things will get crazy as we get closer to Pokemon and/or the new remodel.
This post didn't age well.
Xbox One is weird.
Always a horrible weak January, yet February is always solid for some reason.
Switch is around 50% up in Japan, and for first two months looking at weeks sales around 30%, so WW Switch could be easily be around 30-35% up for Q1, and that would mean around 4m shipped units in Q4, so that would mean around 18.5m for this FY.
IMO 18m for current FY looks locked, unless Nintendo overshiped Switch units last quarter so they ship less units this quarter,
also it seems that Switch will be at around 36m after 25 months on market.
Last edited:
Massive promos and tax season.
Fallout 76 bundles have been $100 off almost all year.
Last year inventory was low.
This year not so much.
So the sold trough increase could different from the shipped increase.
Ps4 has around 2 million units on shelf at the end of the holidays. But we don't have shipped and sold trough comparisons for the Switch.
PS4 February 2015: 342K
NSW February 2019: 363K
Switch had a much better January, 189K VS 284K.
Other PS4 February's.
PS4 February 2016: 405K
PS4 February 2017: 398K
PS4 February 2018: 363K
Considering they sold more than twice what they had in January, yes.
January is always a slow month. It is not a good metric. You need to compare with other February months. This February was horrible for PS4 and Xbox one..
Between these figures and the Japanese figures, it looks to me like Switch may be hitting a critical mass where the concept, the back catalogue and now the announced future lineup are already guaranteeing consistently good, healthy figures, without the necessity of new software to push them to the top.
Couple that with the lineup that Nintendo's got on the docket from June onwards, and we could be looking at some remarkable figures to come.
Couple that with the lineup that Nintendo's got on the docket from June onwards, and we could be looking at some remarkable figures to come.
What do you think the expectations were? Most people here were predicting 100k less than what it ended up being, and these consoles are at the end of their life cycles, especially Xbox as they've already announced they're going to talk about their next gen console this year at E3.
We have to hope it doesn't go lower honestly. Last month was abysmal.
Switch with the highest first 2 month total this gen I believe. Off the back of the best January and a strong February. 2015 PS4 is the best 12-month calendar year this gen and Switch 2018 was just barely behind it, so we have very high probability for best calendar year this generation in 2019.
Once the pace picks up with price-cut/revision/software release stream, we can start to gauge just how high it will go. Peak 360 territory (6.5-7M) or Wii/DS territory (8-9M) - though nothing will touch their peak years (10-11M).
Once the pace picks up with price-cut/revision/software release stream, we can start to gauge just how high it will go. Peak 360 territory (6.5-7M) or Wii/DS territory (8-9M) - though nothing will touch their peak years (10-11M).
https://www.resetera.com/threads/fe...loses-tuesday-march-12th.102857/post-18464944
Xbox One
Xbox One X Fallout 76 1TB Bundles $399 [February 2 - March 31]
Xbox One X Bundles $449 / Xbox One S Bundles $249 [February 17 - March 2] [2 weeks]
Xbox One X Metro Saga 1TB Bundle $499 [$449 during price cut]
Xbox One S 1TB Anthem Bundle $299 [$249 during price cut]
PS4
Nothing
Switch
Switch + 35$ eshop $299 [February 15 - ????]
My post here lists as many potential events as possible. https://www.resetera.com/threads/fe...oses-tuesday-march-12th.102857/#post-18464944
PS4: Nothing
Switch: Switch + $35 eShop code Bundle $299
Xbox One: Whole bunch of deals below
Xbox One X Fallout 76 1TB Bundles $399 [February 2 - March 31]
Xbox One X Bundles $449 / Xbox One S Bundles $249 [February 17 - March 2] [2 weeks]
Xbox One X Metro Saga 1TB Bundle $499 [$449 during price cut]
Xbox One S 1TB Anthem Bundle $299 [$249 during price cut]
Thank you.
Sony should get on that deals train if they want hardware to sell better