Thanks, I should have known I was shooting a bit too high with my 350k number.
-
Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
February 2021 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, March 9th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Thanks, I should have known I was shooting a bit too high with my 350k number.
surprised at 3d world not having outsold wii u original. as much as that sounds like an insane thing to predict in the first place.
i definitely still expect it to ship more by end of this fy worldwide than the original ever did
i definitely still expect it to ship more by end of this fy worldwide than the original ever did
This is about March.
Amazon sold 38K PS5 back on March 3 and is going to sell 46K this Thursday. So that's 84K from just Amazon so far.
PS5: 24K + 28K = 52K
DE: 14K + 18K = 32K
www.youtube.com
So far in March
Week 1: Amazon (Above), Walmart, Best Buy
Week 2: GameStop, Target, Sony Direct
Week 3 (So far): Amazon (Tomorrow), Sony Direct
Amazon sold 38K PS5 back on March 3 and is going to sell 46K this Thursday. So that's 84K from just Amazon so far.
PS5: 24K + 28K = 52K
DE: 14K + 18K = 32K
Amazon PS5 Restock Date (Update-Time Has Changed but 46,000 PS5 are in their Warehouses)
I have been able to confirm the exact date of the next Amazon PS5 restock and I will share my source with you so you will be able to purchase a PLaystation 5...
www.youtube.com
So far in March
Week 1: Amazon (Above), Walmart, Best Buy
Week 2: GameStop, Target, Sony Direct
Week 3 (So far): Amazon (Tomorrow), Sony Direct
That sounds like a lot. What was March 2014 for PS4?This is about March.
Amazon sold 38K PS5 back on March 3 and is going to sell 46K this Thursday. So that's 84K from just Amazon so far.
PS5: 24K + 28K = 52K
DE: 14K + 18K = 32K
Amazon PS5 Restock Date (Update-Time Has Changed but 46,000 PS5 are in their Warehouses)
I have been able to confirm the exact date of the next Amazon PS5 restock and I will share my source with you so you will be able to purchase a PLaystation 5...
So far in March
Week 1: Amazon (Above), Walmart, Best Buy
Week 2: GameStop, Target, Sony Direct
Week 3 (So far): Amazon (Tomorrow), Sony Direct
That seems like a heck of a lot just for Amazon. Is there any way to find past data to compare it to?This is about March.
Amazon sold 38K PS5 back on March 3 and is going to sell 46K this Thursday. So that's 84K from just Amazon so far.
PS5: 24K + 28K = 52K
DE: 14K + 18K = 32K
Amazon PS5 Restock Date (Update-Time Has Changed but 46,000 PS5 are in their Warehouses)
I have been able to confirm the exact date of the next Amazon PS5 restock and I will share my source with you so you will be able to purchase a PLaystation 5...
So far in March
Week 1: Amazon (Above), Walmart, Best Buy
Week 2: GameStop, Target, Sony Direct
Week 3 (So far): Amazon (Tomorrow), Sony Direct
Do we have more specific numbers for Switch in February now? Or is it still 'only' the known range?
Regarding March: Switch should have a good month. The plattform keeps on being very popular and MH Rise should be a neat smash hit in the US too. Furthermore March is a 5-weeks-Month. I would give Switch another 600k for this month. So in the end, first quarter will look something close to this:
January: ~400k
February: ~620k
March: ~600k
Regarding March: Switch should have a good month. The plattform keeps on being very popular and MH Rise should be a neat smash hit in the US too. Furthermore March is a 5-weeks-Month. I would give Switch another 600k for this month. So in the end, first quarter will look something close to this:
January: ~400k
February: ~620k
March: ~600k
Switch will still be number one. It has more stock available and is still in high demand.
Seems like we're just waiting on donny to post the prediction results if we want a better range than what we have.
I actually wonder what month this year will it eventually end up 2nd place honestly
Lot of digital editions looking at these leaks.This is about March.
Amazon sold 38K PS5 back on March 3 and is going to sell 46K this Thursday. So that's 84K from just Amazon so far.
PS5: 24K + 28K = 52K
DE: 14K + 18K = 32K
Amazon PS5 Restock Date (Update-Time Has Changed but 46,000 PS5 are in their Warehouses)
I have been able to confirm the exact date of the next Amazon PS5 restock and I will share my source with you so you will be able to purchase a PLaystation 5...
So far in March
Week 1: Amazon (Above), Walmart, Best Buy
Week 2: GameStop, Target, Sony Direct
Week 3 (So far): Amazon (Tomorrow), Sony Direct
Yeah the idea the DE was a marketing gimmick is laughable considering how many have actually been sold especially in relation to the series S which doesn't get the same criticism.
I don't imagine it will happen this year unless Sony can get a handle on manufacturing to the extent that they begin to set aside units for the holidays and have a huge supply drop in November. If not I expect them to continue to ship everything they have each month which I feel will always be less than Switch at least through this year.
PS5 has gotten restocks almost daily for the last two weeks. I think this month may surprise in the end.
~400K should be expected at bare minimum. PS4 did 371K in March 2014 and PS5 is tracking right next to PS4.
You had recommended looking at keepa before. I'm reviewing the Neon NSW model YTD and I can see price spikes in week 3/4 of January and week 1 of February, suggesting low/no Amazon inventory. Is that a reasonable way to look at this?
If that is representative of the market as a whole, NSW must have performed something like this using 380K Jan and 650K Feb:
W1 150K
W2 100K
W3 65K
W4 65K
W5 65K
W6 250K
W7 170K
W8 165K
So we're heading into March just at or under 200K per week average with $1,400 stimulus + MHR coming. Amazon stock at least has been pretty ample thus far in the month. You're right - we might actually get close to 1M again at this rate. If Feb was actually in the 700-750K range instead of 650K, then late Feb may have actually been at 200K per week.
OP
OP
ResetERA Aggregate Predictions - Feb-2021
1. NSW - 529K (stddev: 61K)
2. PS5 - 329K (stddev: 41K)
3. XBS - 216K (stddev: 42K)
----------
Since not all the results are public, no numerical results are shown here. Also, the rankings are just a counter, so if two users are tied, it is not reflected in these results. To prevent backing out the numbers, only the monthly results for the top 5 predictors are shown. Annual results are still full results, though.
NPD Prediction Results - February 2021
Units
1. slavesnyder
2. Welfare
3. Xevross
4. DarkDetective
5. Lelouch0612
Points
Congratulations, slavesnyder! :D
1. NSW - 529K (stddev: 61K)
2. PS5 - 329K (stddev: 41K)
3. XBS - 216K (stddev: 42K)
----------
Since not all the results are public, no numerical results are shown here. Also, the rankings are just a counter, so if two users are tied, it is not reflected in these results. To prevent backing out the numbers, only the monthly results for the top 5 predictors are shown. Annual results are still full results, though.
NPD Prediction Results - February 2021
Units
1. slavesnyder
2. Welfare
3. Xevross
4. DarkDetective
5. Lelouch0612
Points
Code:
February 2021 Overall 2021 Top (2/2)
01. slavesnyder ---.-- DarkDetective ---.--
02. Welfare ---.-- m051293 ---.--
03. Xevross ---.-- Xevross ---.--
04. DarkDetective ---.-- Pachter ---.--
05. Lelouch0612 ---.-- Welfare ---.--
06. ---.-- slavesnyder ---.--
07. ---.-- Lelouch0612 ---.--
08. ---.-- P Diddy ---.--
09. ---.-- Darth Smurf X ---.--
10. ---.-- Limabean01 ---.--
11. ---.-- TurnoftheCentury ---.--
12. ---.-- 404LinkNotFound ---.--
13. ---.-- Jeean ---.--
14. ---.-- James ---.--
15. ---.-- El Manco ---.--
16. ---.-- Zedark ---.--
17. ---.-- jroc74 ---.--
18. ---.-- Slarvax ---.--
19. ---.-- IronTed ---.--
20. ---.-- Worldhopper Hoid ---.--
21. ---.-- pitseleh ---.--
22. ---.-- Astrogamer ---.--
23. ---.-- KillerMan91 ---.--
24. ---.-- Corporate Clown ---.--
25. ---.-- wilmbreak ---.--
26. ---.-- PachecoMD ---.--
27. ---.-- Fatih656 ---.--
28. ---.-- Kaveri ---.--
29. ---.-- Myriotes ---.--
30. ---.-- DeuceGamer ---.--
31. ---.-- Pranay ---.--
32. ---.-- esteh ---.--
33. ---.-- Sterok ---.--
34. ---.-- RyngΓäó ---.--
35. ---.-- donny2112 ---.--
36. ---.-- WestEgg ---.--
37. ---.-- Joxer ---.--
38. ---.-- hannybunny24 ---.--
39. ---.-- Peek-a-boo! ---.--
40. ---.-- Colocho ---.--
41. ---.-- Quintus ---.--
42. ---.-- MadsG ---.--
43. ---.-- Tbone5189 ---.--
44. ---.-- Euler007 ---.--
45. ---.-- Shock32 ---.--
46. ---.-- Tialo ---.--
47. ---.-- Bosch ---.--
48. ---.-- Shadow of the Void ---.--
49. ---.-- SinCItyAssassin ---.--
50. ---.-- Andromeda ---.--Congratulations, slavesnyder! :D
OP
OP
Since not all the results are public, this is a "Just for Fun" ranking. The way it works is that the #1 predictor for the month using the actual results is assumed to be 100% correct, and everyone else is measured accordingly. These results are not official and not used in the annual rankings. Since the real results can't be shown, these are a substitute to be used "Just for Fun." (^_^)
ResetERA "Just for Fun" Prediction Results - February 2021
Note: Uses #1 predictor as "truth" and measures everyone else relative to them.
1. slavesnyder - 0
2. Xevross - 60,000
3. Lelouch0612 - 75,000
3. Welfare - 75,000
5. jroc74 - 80,000
6. DarkDetective - 91,000
7. P Diddy - 100,000
8. Jeean - 106,000
9. Astrogamer - 116,000
9. Fatih656 - 116,000
11. RyngΓäó - 126,000
12. IronTed - 127,000
13. Myriotes - 130,000
14. Darth Smurf X - 135,000
15. m051293 - 150,000
16. Worldhopper Hoid - 155,000
17. Corporate Clown - 160,000
17. Zedark - 160,000
19. wilmbreak - 164,000
20. Sterok - 165,000
21. PachecoMD - 170,000
22. DeuceGamer - 174,000
23. SinCItyAssassin - 175,000
23. TurnoftheCentury - 175,000
25. Luke88 - 180,000
26. Limabean01 - 183,000
27. mjw - 197,000
28. KillerMan91 - 200,000
29. esteh - 210,000
30. Colocho - 216,000
31. hannybunny24 - 218,000
32. Peek-a-boo! - 225,000
32. pitseleh - 225,000
34. 404LinkNotFound - 230,000
34. Bosch - 230,000
34. Joxer - 230,000
34. WestEgg - 230,000
38. Kaveri - 238,000
39. Shock32 - 240,000
40. El Manco - 249,000
41. Euler007 - 250,000
42. donny2112 - 262,000
43. James - 270,000
43. Pranay - 270,000
45. Slarvax - 290,000
46. Quintus - 295,000
47. Pachter - 315,000
48. kowalski - 330,000
49. Tbone5189 - 393,000
ResetERA "Just for Fun" Prediction Results - February 2021
Note: Uses #1 predictor as "truth" and measures everyone else relative to them.
1. slavesnyder - 0
2. Xevross - 60,000
3. Lelouch0612 - 75,000
3. Welfare - 75,000
5. jroc74 - 80,000
6. DarkDetective - 91,000
7. P Diddy - 100,000
8. Jeean - 106,000
9. Astrogamer - 116,000
9. Fatih656 - 116,000
11. RyngΓäó - 126,000
12. IronTed - 127,000
13. Myriotes - 130,000
14. Darth Smurf X - 135,000
15. m051293 - 150,000
16. Worldhopper Hoid - 155,000
17. Corporate Clown - 160,000
17. Zedark - 160,000
19. wilmbreak - 164,000
20. Sterok - 165,000
21. PachecoMD - 170,000
22. DeuceGamer - 174,000
23. SinCItyAssassin - 175,000
23. TurnoftheCentury - 175,000
25. Luke88 - 180,000
26. Limabean01 - 183,000
27. mjw - 197,000
28. KillerMan91 - 200,000
29. esteh - 210,000
30. Colocho - 216,000
31. hannybunny24 - 218,000
32. Peek-a-boo! - 225,000
32. pitseleh - 225,000
34. 404LinkNotFound - 230,000
34. Bosch - 230,000
34. Joxer - 230,000
34. WestEgg - 230,000
38. Kaveri - 238,000
39. Shock32 - 240,000
40. El Manco - 249,000
41. Euler007 - 250,000
42. donny2112 - 262,000
43. James - 270,000
43. Pranay - 270,000
45. Slarvax - 290,000
46. Quintus - 295,000
47. Pachter - 315,000
48. kowalski - 330,000
49. Tbone5189 - 393,000
I purposely overshoot all numbers for US 😉
just wait intill March thread where I predict NSW at 1.1mil
Oh sweet, podium finish for me! Thanks again to donny for running this.
Here are the ranges I can work out this month, using the already known Switch 613-753k and PS5 288-322k:
613k < Switch < 615k (Switch = 614k +/- 1k, very nice)
288k < PS5 < 307k
XBS < 175k
Here are the ranges I can work out this month, using the already known Switch 613-753k and PS5 288-322k:
613k < Switch < 615k (Switch = 614k +/- 1k, very nice)
288k < PS5 < 307k
XBS < 175k
Last edited:
Damn you slavesnyder! I'll take #2
Update on Amazon. The second drop of PS5 didn't happen. Looks like Amazon moved it because of it being leaked well before it was supposed to happen. They did sell a little bit of the $499 PS5 in Week 3 where it placed #56
With Week 1, we can put that week of sales in place like this.
Week 1
#3. $10 Nintendo Card
#4. PS5 >24,000
#5. 3D World
#6. Switch Pro Controller
#7. PS5 DE >14,000
#8. BENGOO G9000 Stereo Gaming Headset
#9. XBS Controller
#10. PS+ 1 Month
#11. DualSense
#12. SanDisk 128GB microSDXC Card for Nintendo Switch
Xbox had a drop this week. There are still days left for other items to sell but if we assume certain items sell roughly the same week on week that are consistently at the top of the charts, we can roughly guess what Xbox sold.
Right now, Week 4
#8. DualSense
#9. Series S
#10. Series X
#11. Neon Switch
#12. BENGOO G9000 Stereo Gaming Headset
#13. SanDisk 128GB microSDXC Card for Nintendo Switch
#14. PS+ 1 Month
I would think the BENGOO G9000, PS+ 1 Month, DualSense, and SanDisk are ~10K a week maybe a bit higher, so if Series X|S can stay near them by the end of the week, we should assume they also did ~10K each as well.
There is also the Monthly chart, where PS5 DE is at #45 with 14K, and Series S is at #48. Maybe the S is 12-13K. The X is all the way down to #93 which could be down to a ton of items on Amazon selling ~10K this far into the month.
Right now Amazon March could be looking like
PS5: +40K (Week 3 adding a few 1K)
XBS: +20K
That continues the near 2:1 PS5 has had so far, suggesting that isn't changing in March.
Update on Amazon. The second drop of PS5 didn't happen. Looks like Amazon moved it because of it being leaked well before it was supposed to happen. They did sell a little bit of the $499 PS5 in Week 3 where it placed #56
With Week 1, we can put that week of sales in place like this.
Week 1
#3. $10 Nintendo Card
#4. PS5 >24,000
#5. 3D World
#6. Switch Pro Controller
#7. PS5 DE >14,000
#8. BENGOO G9000 Stereo Gaming Headset
#9. XBS Controller
#10. PS+ 1 Month
#11. DualSense
#12. SanDisk 128GB microSDXC Card for Nintendo Switch
Xbox had a drop this week. There are still days left for other items to sell but if we assume certain items sell roughly the same week on week that are consistently at the top of the charts, we can roughly guess what Xbox sold.
Right now, Week 4
#8. DualSense
#9. Series S
#10. Series X
#11. Neon Switch
#12. BENGOO G9000 Stereo Gaming Headset
#13. SanDisk 128GB microSDXC Card for Nintendo Switch
#14. PS+ 1 Month
I would think the BENGOO G9000, PS+ 1 Month, DualSense, and SanDisk are ~10K a week maybe a bit higher, so if Series X|S can stay near them by the end of the week, we should assume they also did ~10K each as well.
There is also the Monthly chart, where PS5 DE is at #45 with 14K, and Series S is at #48. Maybe the S is 12-13K. The X is all the way down to #93 which could be down to a ton of items on Amazon selling ~10K this far into the month.
Right now Amazon March could be looking like
PS5: +40K (Week 3 adding a few 1K)
XBS: +20K
That continues the near 2:1 PS5 has had so far, suggesting that isn't changing in March.
Nice analysis, seems about right. How trustworthy is that source for the amazon drops though, another explanation of what happened is just that they were wrong.
Either way, the assumption of those items selling consistently every week doesn't depend on what the raw numbers are, and it does point to PS5 selling roughly double XBS on amazon regardless of the magnitude. That matches with the roughly 2:1 we seem to be seeing so far this year.
I have to say I'm very surprised, I thought this initial period would be even closer than last gen, not much stronger for playstation. Sony are just managing their stock much better right now, or favouring the US more than normal. I'd guess they're highly valuing a big early lead in the US market this time around and don't care if that means Europe is "only" 2:1 rather than something like 4:1 in the early stages.
Perhaps they're assuming people in Europe will wait for playstations and not be tempted by an xbox, while Americans may be more likely to flip over if an xbox is in stock. Doesn't seem like a bad assumption to me.
Dude was pretty much spot on every time before, but this time he leaked the exact time Amazon would drop them. I'm willing to bet his March 3 info was correct, which then looking at other items and monthly rankings points to what XBS sold.
Right now production is capped for both Xbox and PlayStation. We know that PS5 was allocated 80K wafers in Q4 2020 to XBS 40K, which is 67:33. 2020 shipments point to a 60:40 split which came from previous months of built up stock.
I think either MS screwed up on when they thought demand wouldn't be this high or rather isn't willing to pay more in securing more wafers compared to everyone else and are instead waiting for when TSMC output of 7nm wafers expands, which right now both AMD and Xbox expect to happen by June.
So that could mean Xbox secured more wafers for Q2 compared to Q1 or that Q2 will be similar to Q1 but Q3 is when things turn around.
In the short term, PS5 should continue the ~2:1, but in the long term I don't think it matters once we reach the Fall. Xbox will have a lot of ground to catch up to the XB1 compared to PS5 which is neck and neck with PS4. Xbox has consistently been at PS4 sales level in the holidays despite getting 2:1'd the rest of the year worldwide, and I expect Xbox to reach the same this year. We could see Xbox over PS5 sometime in H2 2021, it's not at all realistic to expect the current gap to continue past June.
So we have a better idea of Feb numbers now. Also, looks like Amazon stock for NSW dried up this week.
W1 150K
W2 100K
W3 65K
W4 65K
W5 70K
W6 230K
W7 160K
W8 155K
W9 175K
W10 175K
W11 175K
W12 225K
W13 100K
March ~850K? Expecting a baseline jump for the first 3 weeks due to stimulus and slight jump in MHR week. At the same time, if they really are running low on inventory in March week 5, then its possible that 1M was already crossed and stimulus bumped up baseline past 200K. It's only Amazon though...