Ann Selzer Queen of the Heartland has spoken:
Everyone loves Michelle and thinks she would contribute to the campaign, and no one wants Hillary.
Everyone loves Michelle and thinks she would contribute to the campaign, and no one wants Hillary.
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First Iowa Poll: Biden 32%, Sanders 19%, O'Rourke 11%, Warren 8%
- Thread starter Autodidact
- Start date
Isnt it a bit early to start polling? i dont think its time yet to put a pulse on the people...atleast let us get out of 2018 first
All name ID basically. Although Beto is doing quite well considering he's not as known as Biden/Bernie/Warren.
4% unsure about Biden
4% unsure about Bernie
16% unsure about Warren
Compare that to:
36% unsure about Beto
41% unsure about Kamala
4% unsure about Biden
4% unsure about Bernie
16% unsure about Warren
Compare that to:
36% unsure about Beto
41% unsure about Kamala
It's not, but this is important to keep in mind:
The most important thing we're learning from this poll: Beto's got much better name ID than the rest of the non-Warren/Biden/Sanders candidates at this point.
Do people really want 80 year olds as their presidents?
IMO Biden and Sanders are just too old to run.
IMO Biden and Sanders are just too old to run.
Strong results for Beto considering his name ID isn't that great and how he is doing well across demographics.
Like Sanders, as his name recognition grows, his favorability can grow. I get that.
But its likely going to be a pretty crowded field, and in that field, he's going to have to do something to stand out. Is he going to play progressive champion Bernie, centrist "let's get back to sanity" Biden? A bit of both?
How he acts in a hypothetical primary would be interesting to see, but i don't think its a cake walk for him.
Pretty good article on Iowa's (very very white, and relatively older) demographics and how they play out.
https://www.citylab.com/life/2016/0...hics-cruz-rubio-trump-sanders-clinton/458697/
Iowa and South Carolina are pretty good to have up front together. NH is useless though.
Pretty much.
This may as well be a brand recognition contest here. I doubt the average Iowa resident is thinking much of Kamala Harris or exposing themselves to much news that features her. Beto at least was in the public conciousness by giving Ted Cruz a run for his money.
I am probably going to go place a bet against Biden running using the money I earned from betting against Comstock.
There are all sorts of red flags coming out of his staggers right now that he's more likely to sit out than run, and that will radically reshape the opening of the race if it happens.
Beto is performing better than Warren despite twice as many people not knowing who he is. Again, it's early, but interesting nonetheless.
Dont care about the age the person is as long as their policies are good. As long as he/she picks a solid VP, the age question should not really factor into it.
My issues with Biden are def not that he's too old to run
What kind of red flags does biden keep dropping?
Bernie has been hedging himself not really committing one way or the other. If he doesn't run, i would have to change my whole criteria around and i half hope it happens just so i'd have to think about it a bit more
These polls aren't that useful for laypersons, but they are a really valuable part of the shadow primary where candidates are trying to fill their staff out and get some early donor backing. Beto doing that well this early is a great sign.
link to the actual poll results http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/12/15/rel1iademocrats.pdf
that Beto is at 23% 1st/2nd choice is pretty damn good considering name recognition compared to Biden/Bernie. Biden has been running in Iowa for like 40 years at this point, so it's not surprising that Iowans would know him best. To put it into perspective when Biden first ran in 88, Beto was 16 lol.
Beto should definitely run. He'll win.
that Beto is at 23% 1st/2nd choice is pretty damn good considering name recognition compared to Biden/Bernie. Biden has been running in Iowa for like 40 years at this point, so it's not surprising that Iowans would know him best. To put it into perspective when Biden first ran in 88, Beto was 16 lol.
Beto should definitely run. He'll win.
Warren in her 2018 Senate race under performed 2016 Hillary vs a no-name. I think the political reality of this one is kinda obvious to people even if they like her personally.
Has apparently been floated by Biden's people in internal meetings as a entry point to the race, the implication that Biden would need help campaigning. And then that idea was leaked to the press.
Harris and Warren have been hard at work on this for a while. Gillibrand is completely LTTP here and if she doesn't run, I think that is the biggest reason why.
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There have been articles with Biden insiders saying how rough the midterm campaigning was on him. And he's in good health!
A presidential campaign for himself would be ten times more exacting.
I mean, any of them is obviously better than anything republican, but like, rather than dying, what if they develop dementia or something like that? It's not obvious early on... Didn't Reagan's Alzheimer actually start before his term ended?
True. It isnt a picnic having to run around like that. It can be crushing, definitely
A NYT rundown weeks back had a staff source saying that Biden found campaigning very difficult. And now we have the "well, can we just announce a joint ticket w/ Beto from day 1" (so that Beto can campaign so we don't have to?) which smells of the bargaining stage of grief.
There were articles from biden folk floating Biden running with Beto from the get go. Makes me think Biden just doesn't have it in him. Too old (someone tells bernie he is also too old).
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Reagan's problems are thought to have begun during the second term. He seemed pretty sharp during the '84 campaign (the "youth and inexperience" zinger), but who knows how much they shielded him.
I hope. She's the only one I have no confidence in beating Trump. Not counting the joke possibilities like Bloomberg or Swalwell.
This is absurd. Biden at the very least would stomp him even if Dems don't care for him anymore. The rust belt would flip back easily.