I think people are seeing "Israel, Saudi Arabia, Trump, and Putin" And they're like "THE NEW GRAND EVIL ALLIANCE" without thinking about it, the motivations of each actor, and the likelihood of any of it. It's not happening.
Israel and Russia are historic enemies, they're not becoming new friends for no reason. Europe and the US are still the tightest trade partner with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and they're not going to foment new trade relations with Russia against American and European sanctions. Finally, while Russia has the most international influence over Iran, Iran is committed to supporting Assad and fighting the Syrian Civil War, and Russia's influence would not be strong enough to get them to drop support.
For some background, though:
Israel is not making any long-term alliances with Putin or Russia, because Russia has been the primary benefactor to Iran (and hence Assad in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and -- previously -- Hamas in Israel / Palestinian Authority) for the last two decades. Russia and Iran have shared a weapons development and trade program since 1979 (originally this was filtered through China and North Korea), and it became an official arms trade agreement in 1992 after the fall of the Soviet Union, where the majority of Soviet military equipment and development was sold to Iran.
Russia does this for a number of reasons. First, during the decline of the USSR and its fall they needed the money. Second, because of arms control agreements between NATO/US and Russia, arms development programs had to be stalled and they sold the technology to Iran (through China, then North Korea) because it had nowhere else to go. Third, Russian arms sales gives foreign influence, much like American arms trade agreements... There's a reason Turkey has historically been so friendly to the US, sure, it's a (historically) secular government, but also because the US provides the majority of military technology to Turkey in exchange for bases, military training support, and shared middle east foreign policy.
Israel falls into this as a
former ally of the Soviet Union. The USSR was the first country to recognize Israel as a Jewish State, because Stalin believed at the time that Zionist Israel was going to be a socialist state juxtaposed against Islamic/Muslim states that would be pro-Western. Remember, the USSR was the primary antagonist against Hitler in Europe, and Israel was founded by at least a plurality of European Jews who either survived the Holocaust or escaped Europe to other countries or directly to what would become Israel. The USSR oversaw arms trade to Israel through Czechoslovakia which proved decisive in the Arab-Israeli war of 1948. Their relationship fell apart chiefly over trade routes through the Suez Canal, and (by the time the western-backed Shah was overthrown in the Iranian Revolution) the USSR eventually became the primary weapons providers to Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Iran, and other countries who would go onto war with Israel and its Western (Anti-soviet) backers.
This brings us back to the fall of the USSR, and through to today, with Russia being the primary international influence in Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, other Iranian proxy organizations, and previously, Hamas. And, of course, it brings us to the Syrian Civil War. The Assad regime is an Iranian proxy regime and its propped up by Iran; the Syrian Army is made up of both Syrians and Iranians, uses Iranian and Russian weapons, and gets training and military expertise from Iran. Russia backs Iran and Assad, but the war is a mess. Historically, Russia has also struggled with Islamic revolutionaries in Russia, and the Syrian Civil War is recruiting Chechnyan Muslims to fight for ISIS and the Syrian free army, who are then returning to Russia and fomenting anti-Kremlin support in Chechnya (remember, a region that Russia initially
lost [or stalemated] a war in, only to then go back a decade later and completely crush/decimate the region brutally).
Russia's involvement in the Syrian CIvil War has been shrouded in denials and contradictory confirmations. This is typical of the Kremlin's attack on truth and information, and Russia regularly denies reports of any casualties in Syria. International groups have confirmed about ~100 Russian deaths in the Syrian Civil War, but independent organizations estimate the number could be as high as a 1,000, though probably much higher than whatever the Kremlin or Pravda confirm (... or deny, they'll often confirm Russian deaths on one news broadcast, and then deny them on the same program 10 minutes later). But, the larger problem for Russia is Chechnyan unrest and pressure on Russia from the West with sanctions (these sanctions primarily date back to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, poisoning of European ex-pats, expulsion of Western diplomats, the murder of Sergei Magnitsky, providing chemical weapons technology to Iran which was used by Assad against his own people, and then only recently involvement in European and American elections). Russia needs the income from trade to Iran to compensate for lost trade opportunities with Western sanctions.
The unlikely alliance from the the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, or other western-allied actors is that Russia has influence over Iran because of their trade agreements, both civilian and military. If Israel/Saudi/US/UAE convince Russia to pressure Iran to pull out of Syria, both militarily and through support to Assad, the Assad regime would fall or be crippled, which would benefit Israel and Saudi Arabia, and the terrorist organizations being developed during the Syrian civil war would collapse -- benefitting Russia, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and any other Western organizations in the Middle East.
There are other civilian interests from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel, as a friendlier relationship with Russia would open economic opportunities between those countries and Russia, creating a less antagonistic relationship. The people in these countries supporting warmer relations with Russia probably see the Trump administration as an opportunity: sanctions against Russia forbid a lot of foreign countries under trade agreements with the US and European countries of trading with Russia. Open trading with Russia would break other more important trade agreements with North America and Europe, but Trump's unpredictability and his seemingly cozy relationship with Putin, matched with (some) Republican congressmen seeming to oppose 2014 sanctions against Russia seem like an opportunity to push trade.
There are way more sinews here as well. Putin and Trump both have financial ties to the UAE. Under sanctions, Russians stashed cash away in UAE developments, likely investing in Trump Organization properties at the same time, it's not a coincidence that Trump -- unable to get lending in the US after his numerous bankruptcies and during the American financial collapse -- invested heavily in the Dubai, starting the Trump Dubai Golf Course & Resort. It's also
likely that Russian oligarchs and businessmen connected to the Kremlin directed cash to these properties as laundering operations when the US and Europe passed new rounds of sanctions on Russia, and that the Trump Org cut its ties to Trump Dubai and sold their stake in it to the UAE-owned business (called Nakheel) overseeing the program (which then licensed it to the Palms company IIRC). The UAE has a similar makeup to the Russian oligarchy, most of the wealthiest businesses and businessmen are either directly in government or have ties to government, and where a Russian oligarch's interest ends and where the Kremlin or Putins interests begins is unclear, and the UAE is similar.
Still, it's unlikely:
- Russia has less influence over Iran than optimists in Saudi Arabia and Israel would think
- Trump has less influence over congress to remove sanctions than optimists would think
- Iran not supporting Assad and the Syrian Civl War is unlikely, and even if they abandoned Assad (Which would never happen, Assad is Iran's strongest proxy in the Middle East), it's not a guarantee that Assad would fall immediately or a more friendly government to Saudia Arabia or the UAE would take it's place
- Israel's closest ally is the US, and even if Trump is warming to Putin, Israel still has a lot of bipartisan legislative allies in both the Democratic & Republican parties. Trump could lose in 2020, it'd be a huge gamble for Israel that likely would pay off less than maintaining the status quo.
... and sadly, I think this is another post where I start typing when the thread is new, and by the time I finish, the thread is dead :-D
