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Fortnite lost its #1 most played spot on the xbox store it had since summer 2018. Gears 5 ends the run

Matty H

Member
Oct 31, 2017
397
Is there a way to check the historic positions? I'm sure Apex was higher than Fortnite for a week in the Australian charts but could be mistaken.

Gamepass must be huge for Microsoft, there's even 2 versions of Gears in the charts.
 

Paragraf

Member
May 31, 2019
251
Russia
benji did a tweet explaining how gears 5 is the first actual evidence that game pass has cannibalized the sale according to low pre order /sale numbers he had compared to high interest in the game
I don't think they were pushing GP that much with FH 4 or other relatively recent first party releases. I think GP ultimate announcement at e3 is the biggest factor.
 

ShinUltramanJ

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,228
This was the line used for FH4, SoD, Sea of Thieves, it was proven to be wrong then, based on Gears 5 huge debut, its highly likely to be wrong again. GP boosts the sales of these games, we have data to back it up, so I doubt the success here is on these temp GP numbers.
I find this so difficult to believe, no matter what they say. People are buying a $60 game that they can easily access along with a shitload of other games for $1-$5, or in many cases free. Do they just not care about money?

So far I’ve spent a whopping $1 on Game Pass and several games have now lost any future potential sales they would’ve gotten from me. When I get back home I’m going to activate a free month I received and blow through Gears 5, which is another game I would’ve bought. Now I won’t bother until it’s a couple bucks in a future sale.

I think Game Pass is an incredible value, but I don’t believe for a moment it’s helping game sales. All you have to do is look at those puny Steam numbers to see that people aren’t buying the game as much as they would’ve had it not been given away.
 

Voodoopeople

Member
Oct 29, 2017
287
I mean Xbox IS Gamepass at this point. That's been MS's whole shift to a service company. They aren't making a ton of money on UGP right now no, but they are building a customer base. Subscribers are notorious for forgetting to cancel auto-renew. I think it's laughable to suggest that they aren't making a ton of money on gears 5 so it somehow has some effect on it beating out a f2p game.

It's amazing that they were able to dislodge fortnight at all.
This. I upgraded to Gamepass ultimate the other day. Turns out I was paying monthly for separate Gold and Gamepass subscriptions for over a year and I didn't even know I was subscribed to Gold at all.
 
OP
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Theorry

Theorry

Member
Oct 27, 2017
20,945
I don't think they were pushing GP that much with FH 4 or other relatively recent first party releases. I think GP ultimate announcement at e3 is the biggest factor.
PC gamepass also is new.
Physical sales are gonna be hurt the most for sure. I am even expecting the game to do "worse" at launch physical wise then Gears 4.
 

Footos22

Member
Oct 25, 2017
848
So you would have paid around 400 rather than the 60 to play it on pc if there wasn't gamepass, but are totally fine playing on PC if there is gamepass? That logic makes no Sense to me, or rather....





I think we're getting way off topic here anyways...
I didn't have a pc when gears 4 came out.

But yeah off topic..
 

Dorfdad

Member
Oct 27, 2017
574
I wonder if this says more about Fortnite or Gears. There were some rumours/stats that indicated fortnite may be beyond its peak (certainly is anecdotally). I don't really see any indication that Gears 5 will do better in the long run than Gears 4 did, though I guess the cheap game pass offers may give the game a better chance at grabbing a new audience.
100% agree fortnite is going nowhere Gears is brand new give it a month or two and Fortnite will bounce back.
 

klier

Member
Oct 29, 2017
440
User banned (3 days): platform warring and trolling, previous infractions for similar behaviour
A testimony to how crappy the games in the store are.

Damn.
 
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Theorry

Theorry

Member
Oct 27, 2017
20,945
it will be back up next month.
Maybe even next week.

People need to realize then the achievement is getting to #1. Its not gonna stay there. The list usually is mostly heavy influenced by MP titles.
Because its hours played and MP games rack up hours. Alot of people play Gears for the SP. Finish it after 12 hours and then drop it. So offcourse Gears 5 will drop on the list very fast.
 

Rodelero

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,325
This was the line used for FH4, SoD, Sea of Thieves, it was proven to be wrong then, based on Gears 5 huge debut, its highly likely to be wrong again. GP boosts the sales of these games, we have data to back it up, so I doubt the success here is on these temp GP numbers.
I think this is a bit of a confused argument.

All I'm suggesting is the pretty simple point that Gears 5 would probably not have taken the #1 spot if it wasn't for Game Pass and the very heavy discounting of Game Pass. This is not contradicted by any of the things you've pointed out. The game would not have more users or more cumulative play time without Game Pass and the discounting, it would have less, and I would argue quite substantially less based on anecdotal evidence and simple common sense.

Furthermore, I think people should be very careful with the 'fact' that game pass boosts game sales. It's based on relatively little information and there is no true way to test that a game that launched on gamepass sold better than it would have otherwise. Moreover, in the long term, as long term subscribers will almost certainly buy fewer game pass games (especially if they're going to start offering ultimate editions).
 

PeskyToaster

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,759
Maybe even next week.

People need to realize then the achievement is getting to #1. Its not gonna stay there. The list usually is mostly heavy influenced by MP titles.
Because its hours played and MP games rack up hours. Alot of people play Gears for the SP. Finish it after 12 hours and then drop it. So offcourse Gears 5 will drop on the list very fast.
Too bad because Gears mutliplayer is one of the best of all time.
 

Clive

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,138
Kind of surprised Fortnite stood up against titans like CoD and RDR2 but I guess that's the power of F2P. Regardless of how many paid how much for it, it is a testament that Microsoft and The Coalition put out something that Xbox gamers wanted to play. They have intentionally practically given away Games Pass so no one can argue that it is a failure that some people are enjoying it at a low cost. Microsoft wanted people to sub and to play the game. They got that result.
 

cyrribrae

Member
Jan 21, 2019
854
There’s room to have a broader conversation here.

I mean, Microsoft’s approach is working very well. I just fear that game design ends up being influenced by the business model now people are caught up and retail sales are going down.
Haven't seen anything as of now to suggest game design decisions are being influenced in that way.
Yer both wrong. Game pass 100% absolutely influences game design, and Xbox has been clear about it. And it's a dammed good thing, too.

The current incentives in the market are to spend huge dollars in grand AAA experiences to try to make that blockbuster hit. This gen, this has been the Sony model (I mean, if you squint a bit. But even Bend sized up to try to do the big bad AAA game). This is a high risk game, that lots of companies have taken huge hits on - leading many to downsize or even close. It mirrors the big blockbuster movie industry.

Or. You could be an indie, try to spend no money, hope that it gets big or gets bought.

Or. You could be F2P (or paid..) and hope that MTX carry the day, because you know that sales won't cover dev costs.

These are true for SP and MP games.


Game Pass breaks those incentives. It is already allowing Xbox devs to create smaller, more niche games that won't sell well to a wide audience nor attract huge MTX transactions. How? Because all a game has to do is get subscribers to stay. So, a niche game that really energizes a small group of players is just as valuable as a huge expensive game that is just like every other moderate AAA success.

Xbox needs and is creating both. Game Pass is making the industry better (for the moment). Are there potential issues when every game is a sub or fails? Sure. But there are clear and very obvious dangers with the status quo right now already. Just because it's familiar doesn't mean it's not collapsing quietly.
 

TheKeyPit

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
2,536
Germany
I think this is a bit of a confused argument.

All I'm suggesting is the pretty simple point that Gears 5 would probably not have taken the #1 spot if it wasn't for Game Pass and the very heavy discounting of Game Pass. This is not contradicted by any of the things you've pointed out. The game would not have more users or more cumulative play time without Game Pass and the discounting, it would have less, and I would argue quite substantially less based on anecdotal evidence and simple common sense.

Furthermore, I think people should be very careful with the 'fact' that game pass boosts game sales. It's based on relatively little information and there is no true way to test that a game that launched on gamepass sold better than it would have otherwise. Moreover, in the long term, as long term subscribers will almost certainly buy fewer game pass games (especially if they're going to start offering ultimate editions).
If Gears 5 gets more physical sales than Gears of War 4, we'll know for sure.
 

xabbott

Member
Oct 28, 2017
702
Florida
Never figured an M rated game would be able to top Fortnite. But it does match all my friends (people in their 30s) playing it. Most of them were surprised it was included in Gamepass.
 

cyrribrae

Member
Jan 21, 2019
854
A testimony to how crappy the games in the store are.

Damn.
Ahaha as though fortnite isn't near the top, if not the VERY top, of EVERY platform right now XD. Look just because it's not being sold on Steam or Play Store, doesn't mean it isn't still killing it on Android and PC lol. This is a big deal on any platform.

Unless you're talking about the state of games in general, in which case, I have no words because we've had quite a lovely last few weeks, let alone last couple years..

If Gears 5 gets more physical sales than Gears of War 4, we'll know for sure.
Wait what about digital sales? There's no way the vast majority of players didn't pick this game up digital. Doesn't mean they didn't buy it, but it's still digital. Lots of double negatives lol. Anyway, physical is probably going to be irrelevant for this cycle.

I'm personally much more interested in gears 5 VS bl3. I imagine bl will also surpass fortnite, but boy.. If it doesn't.. Wow. And if gears holds it own on the NPD, I will be floored. In a good way.
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,554
Remember that Gears is counting both Xbox and PC while Fortnite is only counting Xbox One. This can affect the results quite a lot in countries where Xbox One is not a popular console.
 

pld

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,897
not that impressive, is the only AAA exclusive game in a long time
That argument will never make sense as Crackdown 3 has shown. People said the same about the Switch at launch. "Of course game X will sell because there are no other games on the system." And yet we have seen a lot of games that underperformed during that time period. Good games sell it's as easy as that.
 

Paragraf

Member
May 31, 2019
251
Russia
PC gamepass also is new..
Physical sales are gonna be hurt the most for sure. I am even expecting the game to do "worse" at launch physical wise then Gears 4.
As i see it, right now they are losing money to get the mindshare. I wonder, what is approximate number of GP subscribers they are expecting to get across Scarlett+Xone+Win10+Xcloud.
 

cheesekao

Member
Dec 1, 2017
895
Impressive showing for gears. What are the odds of Fortnite's waning popularity as of late being a contributing factor to its fall as well?
 

Governergrimm

Member
Jun 25, 2019
566
As i see it, right now they are losing money to get the mindshare. I wonder, what is approximate number of GP subscribers they are expecting to get across Scarlett+Xone+Win10+Xcloud.
Well if they can get 5 million UGP subscribers at the full $15 a month that's $900 million a year in revenue. Over the course of a gen, say 6 years, that's $5.4 billion. But, we don't know how much they are spending. This of course combines the money they are making off Xbox live for those 5 million. We really need more data though to know how many subscribers they "need".
 

OldBenKenobi

Member
Oct 25, 2017
831
Holy shit at some of you who downplay this. Fanboys much?


Congrats to MS and The Coalition. The game is truly goty material. Currently in AcT 2 playing co-op has been blast.


IMO, it stands up very well against even Sonys first party offering and even surpasses them in terms on content and gameplay.
 

HardRojo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,964
Hopefully I'll be able to play the whole series on Scarlett. Been wanting to play Gears for a while now.
 

Kilgore

Member
Feb 5, 2018
2,604
benji did a tweet explaining how gears 5 is the first actual evidence that game pass has cannibalized the sale according to low pre order /sale numbers he had compared to high interest in the game. i guess in couple of years we will know better.i could see a scenario where MS brings their games 2 months after launch to game pass so they get to enjoy the sales
It also can suggest a very high digital ratio tbh. I think making such conclusions having only physical sales data can be a little tricky.
 

JINX

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,348
Well that explains all the server issues lol, congrats to the Coalition!

Not surprised that there are people stupid enough to downplay this, it's a huge achievement no matter how you spin it.
 

DrDeckard

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,927
People will do anything to downplay MS on here. It's pretty awful lol.

I got to play the game for a pound too, how could you ever be upset with a company allowing you to enjoy their biggest game of the peak season for a pound LMAO. this place.
 
Apr 6, 2018
1,574
Is that something DLC will help fix you think?
If there's going to be a be dlc, it won't be about that
So any rough estimates possible on player counts based on this info ?
a friend of mine caculated that if red dead, which sold 17 mln copies in its first week, arrive third in that list, and if x1:ps4 split is around 2:5, then we are clearly in the order of millions of users
not that impressive, is the only AAA exclusive game in a long time
like it succeded where rdr2, fh4 and apex legends failed
How is that not impressive
 
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OP
Theorry

Theorry

Member
Oct 27, 2017
20,945
Oh, just found out that COD Modern Warfare and Outer Worlds release on the same day, so COD will take over as the most played Xbox game from which ever game is still at Number 1 on the most played ( Could still be Gears 5?).
Nah. Gears 5 will drop soon. Dont expect Outer Worlds to hit number 1 also. Even with gamepass, Its just a smaller game at the end and SP focused. Top for that game at launch would be a great result.
 

Rodelero

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,325
Oh, just found out that COD Modern Warfare and Outer Worlds release on the same day, so COD will take over as the most played Xbox game from which ever game is still at Number 1 on the most played ( Could still be Gears 5?).
It is extremely likely that Fortnite will regain the top spot in a week or so, and stay there despite releases of Outer Worlds (which will be nowhere near as popular as Gears 5) and Modern Warfare (which is a $60 game).