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Fortnite lost its #1 most played spot on the xbox store it had since summer 2018. Gears 5 ends the run

Rodelero

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,325
I’m not sure why you think ‘value ‘ means retail money. Microsoft clearly favors MUAs now as a sign of health of their gaming endeavors. For example... Do you know for sure that selling a million physical copies matters more to MS than getting 2 million Gamepass subscribers?
I don't, and that question is massively underspecified (how long do they subscribe for?), but I think it's important to remember how this argument started. I stated that the value of a retail sale is higher to Microsoft than the value of a download from a subscriber. A download is not equivalent to a subscription. If I become a long term subscriber to Game Pass because of Gears 5 then yes, there is big value there, but that will be the case for a small minority of those that download via gamepass.

the value of a retail sale is higher to Microsoft than the value of a download from a subscriber

This should not be a controversial statement. I feel like you're either drastically misunderstanding me, or drastically misunderstanding how these subscription systems make money and derive value from downloads. As I've said several times before, none of what I'm saying is a knock against game pass - I like game pass and am optimistic about its future (if wary of how the industry might be affected) - but it's important to understand how the model makes money.
 

Budi

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,369
Finland
I don't, and that question is massively underspecified (how long do they subscribe for?), but I think it's important to remember how this argument started. I stated that the value of a retail sale is higher to Microsoft than the value of a download from a subscriber. A download is not equivalent to a subscription. If I become a long term subscriber to Game Pass because of Gears 5 then yes, there is big value there, but that will be the case for a small minority of those that download via gamepass.

This should not be a controversial statement. I feel like you're either drastically misunderstanding me, or drastically misunderstanding how these subscription systems make money and derive value from downloads.
Those who subscribe to the service don't stop buying games, quite the contrary. Gamepass users seem to buy more games than those who don't use the service (According to Spencer at Giant Bomb interview).
 

zedox

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,769
I don't, and that question is massively underspecified (how long do they subscribe for?), but I think it's important to remember how this argument started. I stated that the value of a retail sale is higher to Microsoft than the value of a download from a subscriber. A download is not equivalent to a subscription. If I become a long term subscriber to Game Pass because of Gears 5 then yes, there is big value there, but that will be the case for a small minority of those that download via gamepass.

This should not be a controversial statement. I feel like you're either drastically misunderstanding me, or drastically misunderstanding how these subscription systems make money and derive value from downloads.
I will state that there's real way to compare the two. You can't say well he/she subscribed long term and that was valuable. There are a lot of factors to be had. Someone buys a game for $60, doesn't do much with it. Another person downloads the game and buys MTX...or they have a great number of friends and they usually play the same games, influencing them to play. The same can be had for the $60 user as well...There's no real determining factor (besides the business themselves) stating as what is more valuable. People who play games influence other people...or have the ability...not everything needs to be a direct point of sale dollar amount to have value...if we look at Gears 5 being successful on gamepass (according to ZhugeEX it's a megahit)...then all of those people have a cascading effect on getting other people either on gamepass or buying the title or downloading the game on their subscription and playing the game...and potentially buying the MTX...or playing other games...it's not the same.
 
Aug 26, 2018
1,327
Having The Outer Worlds launching day one the next month will help retention a lot methinks.
I think the Goal for Xbox Gamepass is 1 AAA game every month.

February - Shadow of the Tomb Raider
March - Just Cause 4
April - Minecraft/Monster Hunter World
May - Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus
June - Metro Exodus
July - Middle-earth: Shadow of War
August - DMC5
Sept - Gears 5
October - Outer Worlds
November & December- Kingdom Hearts 3/Jump Force/Anthem/Sekiro/Resident Evil 2 /Far Cry : New Dawn/Division 2? ( 2 of them)
 

Rodelero

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,325
Those who subscribe to the service don't stop buying games, quite the contrary. Gamepass users seem to buy more games than those who don't use the service (According to Spencer at Giant Bomb interview).
I'm sorry but I think this is a case where people have somewhat misunderstood what Spencer is saying and have run a mile with it. Forgetting what he has said for a moment, it is very difficult to believe that sales will stick or even rise as subscriptions rise. This has been established clearly by other services in similar areas, both with sales of music as streaming services like spotify have come about, and with sales of dvs/blurays as streaming services like Netflix have come about. It would be extraordinary for subscriptions to lead to more sales in the long run based on this, and based on fairly simple logic: subscribers are unlikely to buy games they already have access to. In the longer term, the effect ramps up again, because a user stops buying products that aren't available through subscription because they're satisfied by what is.

Game Pass subscribers buying more games does not imply that subscriptions lead to purchasing more games (basic correlation vs causation issue). There are several reasons why that could be true that seem more logical:

1) Game Pass subscribers tend to be people that play more games anyway
2) Game Pass subscribers end up gaming more on Xbox rather than other platforms
3) A short term Game Pass subscriber buys a game because their subscription lapses (a common case in the aftermath of one of these big discounts I'd think)

None of the above reasons would lead to a situation where sales could be sustained if Game Pass (and similar subscription services) become widespread in the way they have in music, film and TV. As it happens, in the case of Gears, Benji has indicated that Game Pass seems to have cannibalised day one sales, something which hadn't been indicated with previous launches on Game Pass. I would expect that to be common. Game Pass is going to have upsides and downsides like these in the long run, but I expect for Microsoft any cannibalisation in sales will be more than made up for by the additional subscribers.

As I keep repeating, I'm positive about Game Pass and its future. But the notion that it's going to be all up and subscription services won't affect game sales is a fantasy.
 
Oct 27, 2017
3,965
There is no source. Honestly, I think the people who cancel and resubscribe for every big game will be vastly smaller than the people who just stay subscribed month after month

Also I’m guessing he’s not factoring in that Gears has a heavy focus on multiplayer which will undoubtedly keep people that like MP games invested in it until at least the first big update in december
 

OneBadMutha

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,825
Kuddos to Coalition for a great fucking all around game!

Even if 100% of these users were Game Pass $1 trials, a bunch of those trials will convert to long term customers. That’s why subscription trials are a thing. They work. What’s the value of a customer who tried Game Pass and then sticks with the trial for 3 years? More than a $60 purchase I’d say. Shows value of tent pole content and why Game Pass isn’t a race to the bottom. It’s top games that will help it be successful.
 

Matt

The Terror that Flaps in the Night
Moderator
Oct 24, 2017
2,458
Nice showing for Gears, seems well deserved.
 

MrCibb

Member
Dec 12, 2018
722
UK
Nice! Really cool to see. The Coalition have done an excellent job and deserved this success.

And no doubt it's done it's job for MS. If you got Game Pass for Gears, with Outer Worlds and Halo Infinite on the horizon I doubt many people will up and cancel it too.
 

Garrett 2U

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
2,007
The idea that people are only using Game Pass because of the 1$ upgrade is ridiculous, just stop.
I believe that particular user was joking.
But the idea that GamePass is suddenly going to drop off is ludicrous.

I’d be interested in knowing what the length of subscription converted to Ultimate was on average. This deal wasn’t simply a month free trial, for many people it’s 1-3 years of GamePass service.

The numbers will hold up.
 

Taylo207

Member
Jan 10, 2018
1,849
But what about after that? What about seven or 8 months from now? How about when the $1 gold upgrades expire!
First half of 2020 is actually pretty stacked for MS:

Bleeding Edge
Ori and the Will of the Wisps (Feb 11th)
Battletoads
Minecraft Dungeons

Plus the stuff that’ll launch day one:

Wasteland 3
Pyschonaunts 2

Plus you have the PC centric stuff such as Flight Sim, AoE4 and Gears Tactics being worked on.

I imagine with Gears 5 restoring some good will with Ms 1st first party people will be more willing to stick around for the XGS offerings.
 

g23

Member
Oct 27, 2017
328
Fremont, California
Does anyone know if Gears 5 has input-based matchmaking? Like I'm kinda always trippin' that there are Mouse+Keyboard users in my server because of how good folks are.
 

Hurting Bomb

Member
Oct 28, 2017
471
“Just shows how shit games in the Xbox store are”
“Microtransactions are fundamental to Xbox games, just look at Forza 7 and Sea of Thieves.”
“Steam players show a starkly different picture.”
“Oh Microsoft must be losing so much money for mindshare.”
“I count in those stats because I downloaded as a GPU test, won’t ever play.”
“I fear for the future of game design with the GamePass model.”

This thread is a fucking dumpster fire. All because Xbox has a successful franchise.
Yes, successful Xbox thread.

I presume most people on this forum are American, so i find it strange that so many Americans would like to see one of their own companies fail....
 

Budi

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,369
Finland
1) Game Pass subscribers tend to be people that play more games anyway
For sure, Spencer says the same thing in the interview
"on a monthly average a Game Pass player plays 4 or 5 more games than a non-Game Pass player. They're playing a lot more games. They're also buying more games...which at first I'm like...that surprised me"
 

Judge

Vault-Tec Seal of Approval
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
1,973
User engagement is a stat to tout until you have massive revenue figures to share with investors.
That isn’t a real reporting mechanism for them currently. Overall revenue sure, but I really doubt you will get any solid Gears revenue splits. You’ll get “x amount of people played Gears 5 since launch”
 

Pasha

Member
Jan 27, 2018
1,239
I believe that particular user was joking.
But the idea that GamePass is suddenly going to drop off is ludicrous.

I’d be interested in knowing what the length of subscription converted to Ultimate was on average. This deal wasn’t simply a month free trial, for many people it’s 1-3 years of GamePass service.

The numbers will hold up.
I can't image the number being high at all, even around here the thread with the deal was barely getting any traction at all. I'd say it would be 10K at most.
Yeah sorry about that, but poe's law......
 

sibarraz

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
9,244
What's the difference between Gears 5 and Forza Horizon 4?

Is weird since gears 4 wasn't a beloved game by any means, while the Forza games seems to always get much praise from everybody (even people who hate ms always claim that they would love to have FH in their console) So how did Gears 5 managed to arguably get more popular considering all this?
 

Bits N Pieces

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,599
Scotland
What's the difference between Gears 5 and Forza Horizon 4?

Is weird since gears 4 wasn't a beloved game by any means, while the Forza games seems to always get much praise from everybody (even people who hate ms always claim that they would love to have FH in their console) So how did Gears 5 managed to arguably get more popular considering all this?
One is a Third Person Shooter (very popular genre) and the other is an Open World Racer (not as popular a genre).

Even then, FH4 is regularly one of the most played games on Live and I'm sure has passed twelve million players with four million concurrent, that in itself is an incredible feat.
 

Splader

Member
Feb 12, 2018
1,262
Was just checking some other regions, and it's also most played in Canada, Mexico, Japan, and Brasil. And I imagine most places.

This game is great and people know it.