Yup. Not to offend the OP or anything. But this is very much a fan perspective. Which is funny considering he's framing it as a business perspective.
I have seen many fans of Nintendo claim Switch has phonemically and unprecedented success. i have some reservation on this.
My own 'business perspective' is unless the Switch, in its 1st year "significantly" outsell the first year sell of 3DS, Vita, and Wii U combined.
which according to wiki is 23 million. This is the theoretical size of Switch target audience
3DS = 15.03 million
Vita = 4 million
Wii U = 3.91 million
There are many different factors in play like
- price prints,
- unit volume availability
- competition
- launch games
anyway I would say Switch sales should be projected to be between 15 million and 23 million in its first year.
~ 23 million ( no overlap )
~ 15 million ( overlap i.e. all Wii U owner buy Vita, and Vita owners all buy 3DS )
Wiki is reporting
10 million sales, which if I am an analyst will be a bit disappointing to be honest.
Given that its hardware portfolio has been reduced from ( console + portable ) to single hardware ( convertible )
and Switch has so many factors in its favor.
- acclaimed launch games,
- high volume of availability toward the end of year.
I think Nintendo secretly hope switch sales will have close to at least 15 million by now.
Probably Nintendo knows this and is gunning the "blue ocean" technology again.
The cardboard stuff that can help distinguish the switch from its main competitor ( iphone and android games )
i think switch is doing good, very healthy sales.
but i think its kidding yourself to think this is best thing since slice bread and it's doing fantastically-the-world-has-never-seen this before good
Probably nintendo fans got carry away because Nintendo is doing so much better than the Wii U
So ZhugeEx, what do you think ? the numbers are probably wrong. .. but that's my reasoning