Are those 66% voting Microsoft wining just joking?
Since it is more political intention by the regulators, there is NO chance for MS to win this deal.
Time to move on.
The FTC was ALWAYS going to sue. They literally said as much days after the merger was announced. And once Microsoft can get this out of the FTCs administrative court and into regular court the FTC will get shut down like all their other attempts recently.
The EU is looking to lean towards approving it with concessions. Of course the EU could always vote to block, but we simply dont know enough about the EU other than Microsoft is spending alot of focus on trying to appease them that from the news seems to be working.
The CMA is the true danger of the whole aquisition. If the CMA blocks, there is zero recourse for Microsoft. Microsoft can take it court, but the court cant overturn the CMAs decisions and can only tell the CMA to go look at the deal again. But, if Microsoft can get the EU to approve them, then the CMAs argument ends up taking on lot of flac because of how incredibly similar those markets are to one another. And if it comes down to UK vs the world, Microsoft can easily make UK only concessions to appease the CMA and force the deal through.
That means looking at regulators, we've got 2/3 approvals and one up in the air. And needless to say, the FTC lying also doesn't help the case for the other regulators. If Microsoft can proove that in court, it makes it harder for other regulators to make the same or similar arguments and can use that to force the other regulators to look at the deal again.
So like always. Long term favours Microsoft, short term favours regulators. The longer Microsoft drags it out the better their chances. But the downside there is the longer it drags out, the more it costs Microsoft. And if that cost goes over the penalities for walking away, Microsoft may just walk away unless they take this personally enough to want to prove a point.