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Who do you think will win?

  • I think the FTC will win

    Votes: 812 33.8%
  • I think Microsoft will win

    Votes: 1,587 66.2%

  • Total voters
    2,399
Status
Not open for further replies.

Sloth Guevara

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,331
Good, I'm against consolidating BS like this merger.
But my bowls are telling me that this won't go that far as being struck down, I'd imagine them working out a deal.
 

| TrusT |

Member
Apr 19, 2020
1,898
Might sound crazy but they should consider dropping xbox, dump everything they got into gp and their 1st party devs the go to sony, nintendo and tell them if they want these games they will need gp on their platform. I feel like with all the ip they now own and all that money they can go full 3rd party and make gp into a must have sub service for games on pc, consoles and phones.

Just because gamers are slow on the uptake doesn't mean they should throw away the most progressive and feature set console ecosystem out there. GP is already a must have sub service and leagues ahead of the other options.

Why on earth would you want to loose the hardware manufacturer that innovates the most? (Adaptive controller, Quick resume etc)
 

Yeona

Banned
Jan 19, 2021
2,065
In what world is Ark 2 bigger than FF7 Remake and the upcoming FF16. Not to mention the upcoming KOTOR remake or Silent Hill…

And I never said MS stopped them, I mentioning the general public perception of them. Which is ALWAYS negative, yet Sony gets a pass cause at look you, thinking that Ark 2 competes with the games that I've mentioned.

Ark is shockingly big! :p I know it came as a surprise to me too, but yeah, there's no comparison there, it's much bigger than Final Fantasy.

FF may have the name and legacy, but Ark came at the right time, for the right audience, much like Minecraft and Fortnite did.
 

Trup1aya

Literally a train safety expert
Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,323
I just so baffled at the justification people state for supporting the consolidation efforts by MS or Sony. Especially for MS. Just because you like game pass, does not mean it's a good thing. It's extremely short sighted because you are giving MS immense control and power. The value of game pass is not going to be consistent or the same forever. Hell it could change faster than you people realize. I mean we can look at HBO Max and how it was gutted so quickly the moment they gave up on it. That could happen with MS or any other company. But now they have one of the largest publishers under their control.

Consolidation is bad period. It always stifles innovation even if there appears to be a short term gain with such acquisitions. The long term is far less predictable and looking through history, it never favors the consumer.

People disagree that consolidation is inherently bad… because it isn't. The likelihood of this acquisition "Stifling innovation " Is near zero, as no party would obtain a dominant market share and all parties would still need to find ways to differentiate.

How would MS owning Activision alleviate their need to deliver compelling hardware and games? It's not like Sony, Nintendo and PC would vaporize into thin air.
 
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Jul 19, 2020
1,130
there's not a single thing about all these games being on game pass, cloud, and PC DAY ONE that is bad for the consumer.

it's the exact opposite. game pass is one of the few pro consumer services in this stupid industry.
I would close game pass forever and have every game released on it cost double at launch before I would want further consolidation of the industry. A portion of the consumer base having the option to rent these games instead of only being able to buy them does not even come close to offsetting the damage caused by deals such as this in my opinion. To say nothing of the fact MS could still get all these releases on GP for consumers without buying these companies to begin with.

Also nearly all recent Actiblizz games are already on PC day one except the mobile exclusives, the sole exception I can think of is CTR. Odd thing to highlight as a benefit.
 
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DopeyFish

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,786
Are those 66% voting Microsoft wining just joking?
Since it is more political intention by the regulators, there is NO chance for MS to win this deal.
Time to move on.

um, that's exactly why they will win in court

law matters, how someone feels something works doesn't matter. law rules above all.
 

dlauv

Prophet of Truth - One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,509
www.resetera.com

The Microsoft / Activision Blizzard acquisition |OT| Antitrust Simulator (completed; discussing post-merger issues) OT

MLex emailed the European Commission about the FTC accusation and they provided a very interesting answer: I can’t share the link yet because it’s behind a subscription service (they usually share part of the content a few days later here). I deleted the images because the same info can be...

Microsoft didn't mislead EU over ZeniMax deal, watchdog says in response to US concerns

Microsoft didn't make any "commitments" to EU regulators not to release Xbox-exclusive content following its takeover of ZeniMax Media, the European Commission has said.

US enforcers yesterday suggested that the US tech giant had misled the regulator in 2021 and cited that as a reason to challenge its proposed acquisition of Activision Blizzard.

"The commission cleared the Microsoft/ZeniMax transaction unconditionally as it concluded that the transaction would not raise competition concerns," the EU watchdog said in an emailed statement.

The absence of competition concerns "did not rely on any statements made by Microsoft about the future distribution strategy concerning ZeniMax's games," said the commission, which itself has opened an in-depth probe into the Activision Blizzard deal and appears keen to clarify what happened in the previous acquisition.

The EU agency found that even if Microsoft were to restrict access to ZeniMax titles, it wouldn't have a significant impact on competition because rivals wouldn't be denied access to an "essential input," and other consoles would still have a "large array" of attractive content.
 

killerrin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,237
Toronto

Here you go, Idas posted it in the other thread

www.resetera.com

The Microsoft / Activision Blizzard acquisition |OT| Antitrust Simulator (completed; discussing post-merger issues) OT

Wasn't it Satyas idea? At least thats what I read. I don't think anyone will be in trouble, both have made so much money for Microsoft, at the very worst they will lose a massive bonus or something. Granted, I dont have insight into the political machinations of the company so maybe I am ultra...
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,447
Thanks! I did find it really weird the focus on Zenimax since there wasn't any proof/substance to their claims, this just buries a part of their case on court. That argument was really weird,.
 

Trup1aya

Literally a train safety expert
Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,323
Are those 66% voting Microsoft wining just joking?
Since it is more political intention by the regulators, there is NO chance for MS to win this deal.
Time to move on.

These regulators have to prove their case in court, and their arguments are impossible to defend. Some of the FTCs arguments are basically lies. This will fall apart like wet paper in court.
 

killerrin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,237
Toronto
Are those 66% voting Microsoft wining just joking?
Since it is more political intention by the regulators, there is NO chance for MS to win this deal.
Time to move on.

The FTC was ALWAYS going to sue. They literally said as much days after the merger was announced. And once Microsoft can get this out of the FTCs administrative court and into regular court the FTC will get shut down like all their other attempts recently.

The EU is looking to lean towards approving it with concessions. Of course the EU could always vote to block, but we simply dont know enough about the EU other than Microsoft is spending alot of focus on trying to appease them that from the news seems to be working.

The CMA is the true danger of the whole aquisition. If the CMA blocks, there is zero recourse for Microsoft. Microsoft can take it court, but the court cant overturn the CMAs decisions and can only tell the CMA to go look at the deal again. But, if Microsoft can get the EU to approve them, then the CMAs argument ends up taking on lot of flac because of how incredibly similar those markets are to one another. And if it comes down to UK vs the world, Microsoft can easily make UK only concessions to appease the CMA and force the deal through.

That means looking at regulators, we've got 2/3 approvals and one up in the air. And needless to say, the FTC lying also doesn't help the case for the other regulators. If Microsoft can proove that in court, it makes it harder for other regulators to make the same or similar arguments and can use that to force the other regulators to look at the deal again.

So like always. Long term favours Microsoft, short term favours regulators. The longer Microsoft drags it out the better their chances. But the downside there is the longer it drags out, the more it costs Microsoft. And if that cost goes over the penalities for walking away, Microsoft may just walk away unless they take this personally enough to want to prove a point.
 
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Killer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,343
Technically, the probably could just rescind the offer to Sony. I think that would be a bad decision though as MS will most likely need regulatory approval on other things in the future.

If they win the case outright that means the conssessions were unnecessary. So technically yes. But I still can't see them taking CoD away.

They'll want some kind of deal, MS will want to sell tons of COD games, regardless of platform.

My understanding:

If it goes to court and MS wins then there are no concessions in the US. If it goes to court and they lose its done and the acquisition is struck down. I believe the court can make demands like concessions but I'm not sure.

The problem is that this is only for the US so they can win the case here without concessions and then have the CMA block it or require different concessions.

Thanks for clearing it up for me. Yeah they will probably make concessions to reach a deal
 

arsene_P5

Prophet of Regret
Member
Apr 17, 2020
15,438
The told the EU antitrust that the would only make Zenimax/Bestheda games exclusive in a highly "implausible" (their words) seceniro, which has not happen, yet they announce exclusive 1 year after the acquisition.

Straight from the brief they submitted:

image.png

View: https://twitter.com/klobrille/status/1601265778942414848?t=Jle2rJY5ZadZyqXSCF8PWw&s=19
The problem isn't releasing games on all consoles on a case by case basis it's that Microsoft told the EU that it was "highly improbable" they would make games exclusive only to then do exactly that with Zenimax's 2 biggest projects immediately following completion of the acquisition. The math doesn't add up. Either Microsoft wasn't being completely honest with the EU in their January 2021 response or the calculus behind their decisions changed so dramatically that regulators need to get more strict rules in writing than they expected.
EU provided a answer to FTC ... claims...
 
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NotLiquid

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
34,748
www.resetera.com

The Microsoft / Activision Blizzard acquisition |OT| Antitrust Simulator (completed; discussing post-merger issues) OT

MLex emailed the European Commission about the FTC accusation and they provided a very interesting answer: I can’t share the link yet because it’s behind a subscription service (they usually share part of the content a few days later here). I deleted the images because the same info can be...
Stick a fork in it.
 

Biggzy

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,929
It's almost like the FTC is finding any reason to block the deal and at the very least not prepared to ask for concessions.

It's why they are hoping either the CMA or EC kills the deal, or makes the process too long and Microsoft gives up.
 
Oct 27, 2017
45,016
Seattle
I know for many consolidation = bad, but FTC pulling these kinds of antics is exactly the reason some people have a distrust in governmental agencies. They are proceeding in a bad faith manner.
 

Lumines

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,093
Here you go, Idas posted it in the other thread

www.resetera.com

The Microsoft / Activision Blizzard acquisition |OT| Antitrust Simulator (completed; discussing post-merger issues) OT

Wasn't it Satyas idea? At least thats what I read. I don't think anyone will be in trouble, both have made so much money for Microsoft, at the very worst they will lose a massive bonus or something. Granted, I dont have insight into the political machinations of the company so maybe I am ultra...

This news (well, it wasn't really...) is especially funny after the sheer amount of people in this thread were quoting that bit from the FTC as if it were proof of MS being hypocrites, lol.
 

Theorry

Member
Oct 27, 2017
60,972
Like i said. MS laywers are gonna have a field day on that FTC Zenimax thing. I didnt make sense. And a simple gamer as me saw it was full of holes and wrong.
 

Yerffej

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,496
Good, I'm against consolidating BS like this merger.
But my bowls are telling me that this won't go that far as being struck down, I'd imagine them working out a deal.
Your bowels are correct here. I kind of hope this would go all the way because I bet players in this have dirty laundry they don't want aired...but it won't. Concessions will be made and the FTC won't have to look weak on a case they know they can't win.
 

UltimateHigh

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,500
I would close game pass forever and have every game released on it cost double at launch before I would want further consolidation of the industry. A portion of the consumer base having the option to rent these games instead of only being able to buy them does not even come close to offsetting the damage caused by deals such as this in my opinion. To say nothing of the fact MS could still get all these releases on GP for consumers without buying these companies to begin with.

Also nearly all recent Actiblizz games are already on PC day one except the mobile exclusives, the sole exception I can think of is CTR. Odd thing to highlight as a benefit.

first off, Blizzard/Activision is in no way some sort industry wide consolidation that will lead to anything bad. that's Boogeyman crap. it's ultimately a small part of the gaming industry regardless of how massive the cod franchise is. it's leadership would also be significantly less terrible.

and I'm talking day one on game pass obviously, which is objectively a huge benefit to the consumer. It's not debatable. and paying to put these gamss on game pass day one without ownership wouldn't make sense for them in the slightest (it's ultimately about call of duty and the asking price for that alone would be absolutely astronomical). it has to benefit both parties.

FTC will lose this battle regardless.
 
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Buckle

Member
Oct 27, 2017
41,038
I want it to not go through but you get so used to seeing massive corporations get their way that its hard not to feel like its going to anyway.
 

Shemhazai

Member
Aug 13, 2020
6,456
The FTC didn't say MS made concessions to the EU though? They said that MS told the EU that they would have no reason to make Zenimax games exclusive (which the transcripts show is something they said). EU let the deal pass without that being a factor in their decision, but that still doesn't change the issue at hand. MS said one thing to the EU then did another.
 

arsene_P5

Prophet of Regret
Member
Apr 17, 2020
15,438
Like i said. MS laywers are gonna have a field day on that FTC Zenimax thing. I didnt make sense. And a simple gamer as me saw it was full of holes and wrong.
I agree and it definitely didn't make sense. In fact it would've revealed a shocking picture of EU regulators and the state of their research skills, if Microsoft could tell them one thing and tell us consumers another right from the first announcement of the plan to buy Zenimax, without raising any red flags.
 
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vixolus

Prophet of Truth
Member
Sep 22, 2020
54,276
The FTC didn't say MS made concessions to the EU though? They said that MS told the EU that they would have no reason to make Zenimax games exclusive (which the transcripts show is something they said). EU let the deal pass without that being a factor in their decision, but that still doesn't change the issue at hand. MS said one thing to the EU then did another.
Wrong. MS told the EU they had no reason to make all ZeniMax games in their entirety exclusive (i.e. withdraw sale of existing games + new games from PSN and eShop) as there is no incentive there. The EU agreed with this. The EU also considered the scenarios that Microsoft DID make everything exclusive including future games, and still found there would not be any material incentive or substantial lessening of competition. The EU considered Microsoft's statements that they WOULD make future releases exclusive on a case-by-case basis.

MS did not say one thing to the EU and do another. The EU disagrees with the characterization of the FTC with their process and approval.

Read through 115 to 124.
 

Sloth Guevara

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,331
Your bowels are correct here. I kind of hope this would go all the way because I bet players in this have dirty laundry they don't want aired...but it won't. Concessions will be made and the FTC won't have to look weak on a case they know they can't win.


Yeah, this seems like the best avenue to go down for everyone involved.
 

DopeyFish

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,786
The FTC didn't say MS made concessions to the EU though? They said that MS told the EU that they would have no reason to make Zenimax games exclusive (which the transcripts show is something they said). EU let the deal pass without that being a factor in their decision, but that still doesn't change the issue at hand. MS said one thing to the EU then did another.
they had no reason to make ALL zenimax games exclusive

this means already released AND future. not just future.
 

dlauv

Prophet of Truth - One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,509
The FTC didn't say MS made concessions to the EU though? They said that MS told the EU that they would have no reason to make Zenimax games exclusive (which the transcripts show is something they said). EU let the deal pass without that being a factor in their decision, but that still doesn't change the issue at hand. MS said one thing to the EU then did another.
MS told the EC that all future titles would be case-by-case in regards to exclusivity. What the FTC quoted was a paragraph by the EC regarding MS' statements regarding existing Bethesda titles although that was not specified in the summary paragraph.
 

vixolus

Prophet of Truth
Member
Sep 22, 2020
54,276
This doesn't seem to say that MS didn't give misleading statements though. They're just saying whatever statements Microsoft made misleading or not didn't factor into their decision?
Microsoft says we won't withhold sales of Zenimax from existing stores/consoles. Existing games and contracts will exist in full and be supported. They will be available on pc and mobile where applicable, and on game pass day one. Future titles will be available on a case by case basis and considering our financial and business goals.

EU considered Microsoft's statements as well as the hypothetical scenarios that they don't adhere to their word/business plan and DO make EVERYTHING exclusive (pull out from other stores/consoles entirely, make future games exclusive), and STILL determined that they are not substantially lessening competition.

The EU considered all of the scenarios. They were not misled by Microsoft, and the FTC claiming Microsoft was misleading is an accusation of the EC's ability to review and govern.
 

Jawmuncher

Crisis Dino
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
38,394
Ibis Island
This thread has run its course.
Discussion will be back in the OT

www.resetera.com

The Microsoft / Activision Blizzard acquisition |OT| Antitrust Simulator (completed; discussing post-merger issues) OT

Wasn't it Satyas idea? At least thats what I read. I don't think anyone will be in trouble, both have made so much money for Microsoft, at the very worst they will lose a massive bonus or something. Granted, I dont have insight into the political machinations of the company so maybe I am ultra...
 
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