How do you view the new Nintendo Switch model in terms of a hardware upgrade?

  • As a mid-gen refresh (e.g. Xbox One S → Xbox One X, etc.)

    Votes: 114 48.7%
  • As an iterative successor (e.g. iPhone 11 → iPhone 12, etc.)

    Votes: 120 51.3%

  • Total voters
    234
  • Poll closed .

KlaxOnKlaxOff

Member
Mar 3, 2021
48
Correct & that was one of the reasons the talk of 2021 was confusing me because none of the software I knew of was slated for 2021.

Nate, are you able to confirm if the software you’re aware of that’s slated for 2022 is intended as a Pro exclusive? You’ve mentioned that you’re aware of some exclusive software in the past, I believe. Just curious as it may give a sense of how prevalent we expect exclusives to be.
 

BDGAME

Member
Oct 27, 2017
921
Brasília
Since the new model will probably release only in the end of 2022 or sometime in 2023, I want to know what it can be.

The current switch release in 20017 with a Soc from 2015 that was good for a portable device for U$ 300. The rumors are telling the next model will really be a custom chip. For launch this year people are saying it may be a ampere hybrid with 8MM, but since it will be released more in the future can we assume it is a true 5mm Ada Lovelace chipset with more power than an ampere device? Maybe something stronger than a base Ps4 without the DLSS?

And the Screen? We are all sure it would be 720p again. But since that resolution is for the OLED model, what Nintendo can bring for table one year from now? 900p? 1080p? The portable really need to run with half the power of the docked mode? Can it be a lot closer in that new chipset?

Is time to upgrade our expectations for the new model, no?
 

BlueManifest

One Winged Slayer
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
11,678
Don’t devs usually get dev kits for next gen systems 2-3 years before they release? That would line up with Nintendo’s next gen system and the small amount of devs getting dev kits this year
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,877
the difference is ps4 and ps3 are completely different platforms with completely different development environments

That isn't the case with switch and whatever is next... these newer pieces of hardware likely use the same development environment making them part of the same platform
things just aren't the same as they used to be. So whatever it is... it could be 25x the power of current switch if it uses the same dev tools then it is a scuessor on the same platform or... an "iterative successor"



I agree, though like I just stated above, being in the same dev environment is very different from how stuff used to be done. I wonder if there was no 2020 mess if we'd be on that pattern or not. We likely won't know their actual intentions for many years.

Nah, lets not now pretend that when people were talking about "iterative" they were just referring to the exact same thing as PS5/XSX.
 

4859

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,046
In the weak and the wounded
I think people are getting hung up on the semantics/implied meaning of Switch Pro vs Switch 2. From a pure hardware perspective, yes we can all agree that the rumored specs capable of DLSS could constitute a generational upgrade or “Switch 2”. However, the implication behind the “Pro” as consumers have come to understand it is that it largely does not have exclusive games. The unfortunate aspect of not adhering to clear console generations is that there’s no guarantee that game design takes full advantage of the new hardware. Games are, in a sense, still hamstrung by the old hardware from a design perspective. We’re seeing this with PS4/PS5 right now. However, at least there is a clear expectation that at some point, games will be purely targeting the PS5 as the new baseline. If Nintendo releases this model now, I don’t think gamers have confidence that it will become the new hardware baseline at any point. So while Pro vs 2 is largely semantic in terms of hardware, it has a particular connotation.

Nintendo has not even announced, let alone, named this thing.

We, us, random people on the internet named it the pro. It's meaningless.
 

Mr.Gamerson

Member
Oct 27, 2017
850
$400 Super Nintendo Switch Neo pro 2 in 2022 that will last until 2025/2026 because of corona delaying things. Since the iterative approach is more apparent now with this new oled model being announced, I think it safe to be more bullish on the specs since i expect the system to last a while. I'm guessing 1.8TF docked 900 GF undocked. 8gb ram, 8 core cpu clocked at the lowest 1.2 ghz.

I still think BOTW 2 being a 2022 title and likely one that comes H2 was the biggest indicator that the DLSS Switch was not coming this fiscal year. The earliest i could see the Switch NXT releasing in 2022 is in June, which would give them enough time build up good inventory for Holiday 2022 and BOTW2. I could see the announcement come in April 2022.
 

Aether

Member
Jan 6, 2018
3,881
Don’t devs usually get dev kits for next gen systems 2-3 years before they release? That would line up with Nintendo’s next gen system and the small amount of devs getting dev kits this year
2-3 years before release you wont find dev kits. you will find dev targets -> pcs with specs close to what they would like to have in the dev kits.2-1 years is the time for dev kits, but usually 2 years is for internal studios and really really close partners, and a year prior it starts to go more to the generall third party developer.
Early Dev-Kits are expensive hardware in limited amount, since its no mass produced product.
 
OP
OP
Dakhil

Dakhil

Member
Mar 26, 2019
4,379
Orange County, CA
Since the new model will probably release only in the end of 2022 or sometime in 2023, I want to know what it can be.

The current switch release in 20017 with a Soc from 2015 that was good for a portable device for U$ 300. The rumors are telling the next model will really be a custom chip. For launch this year people are saying it may be a ampere hybrid with 8MM, but since it will be released more in the future can we assume it is a true 5mm Ada Lovelace chipset with more power than an ampere device? Maybe something stronger than a base Ps4 without the DLSS?
I don't think it's likely, given that choosing which process node to use to fabricate the SoC is not something a company can decide in a matter of a couple of months, but rather a couple of years. Also, kopite7kimi mentioned that (Ada) Lovelace is similar to Ampere in terms of architecture.
 

UltraMagnus

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,330
Nintendo has not even announced, let alone, named this thing.

We, us, random people on the internet named it the pro. It's meaningless.

Is the system powerful enough to be a full generation upgrade over the Switch? If the answer is Yes ... then this is a Switch 2, no ifs, ands, or buts, and that can be a 2024 release, you don't want it or need it to be that close to a $350 OLED model.

If answer is "kinda/sorta/it's complicated/no" ... then that model shouldn't be released at this point period. It's too late for that.

You're going to end up with a semi-mediocre product that's going to become apparent as such as the years go on that pushes back a real successor by several years in which time you will lose market momentum.

At this point, chalk it up to COVID or whatever you want, but the time for a "just sorta OK upgrade to the Switch" has passed.
 

NateDrake

Member
Oct 24, 2017
6,382
Thank you as always Nate and I really hope people aren't being nasty assholes with this week.

Mostly ignoring the clowns that can't understand the simple concept of this OLED model not being the model that I & Bloomberg have made mention of.

Yes... it appears the release timing may have been confused and the two merged on that front; but that doesn't negate any prior info of a 4K DLSS device equipped with a new chip, which other respected ERA insiders have also corroborated. If people want to ignore this smoke, that's their choice.

Mostly annoys when I said months ago that if an Aula/OLED model for 2021 happens that was not the hardware I was speaking of & that I've been talking something else.

Nate, are you able to confirm if the software you’re aware of that’s slated for 2022 is intended as a Pro exclusive? You’ve mentioned that you’re aware of some exclusive software in the past, I believe. Just curious as it may give a sense of how prevalent we expect exclusives to be.
Only a couple were Pro exclusive. Others remained compatible with the current Switch product line & would see enhancements while played on Pro hardware.
 

Aether

Member
Jan 6, 2018
3,881
$400 Super Nintendo Switch Neo pro 2 in 2022 that will last until 2025/2026 because of corona delaying things. Since the iterative approach is more apparent now with this new oled model being announced, I think it safe to be more bullish on the specs since i expect the system to last a while. I'm guessing 1.8TF docked 900 GF undocked. 8gb ram, 8 core cpu clocked at the lowest 1.2 ghz.

I still think BOTW 2 being a 2022 title and likely one that comes H2 was the biggest indicator that the DLSS Switch was not coming this fiscal year. The earliest i could see the Switch NXT releasing in 2022 is in June, which would give them enough time build up good inventory for Holiday 2022 and BOTW2. I could see the announcement come in April 2022.
If youre to bullish people will come with "unrealistic expectations" =P dont expect more then base XBox One in 2022 going by some here
 
Mar 31, 2021
201
I don’t think the Switch pro will release next year. What I think will happen is more third parties will get devkits for a 2023 launch and thus more leaks will happen. So we shouldn’t expect anything substantial about the switch pro in terms of leaks this year.
 

Homura

Member
Aug 20, 2019
4,943
Only a couple were Pro exclusive. Others remained compatible with the current Switch product line & would see enhancements while played on Pro hardware.
Do you have any idea if these exclusives are targeting H1 2022 or H2? So we can have a better idea on the possible Switch DLSS release period
 

BlueManifest

One Winged Slayer
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
11,678
2-3 years before release you wont find dev kits. you will find dev targets -> pcs with specs close to what they would like to have in the dev kits.2-1 years is the time for dev kits, but usually 2 years is for internal studios and really really close partners, and a year prior it starts to go more to the generall third party developer.
Early Dev-Kits are expensive hardware in limited amount, since its no mass produced product.
1-2 years then, either way it can line up with Nintendo’s next gen system
 

KlaxOnKlaxOff

Member
Mar 3, 2021
48
Nintendo has not even announced, let alone, named this thing.

We, us, random people on the internet named it the pro. It's meaningless.

Yes, the way it’s officially positioned from a marketing perspective will be the true test. I’m just thinking through how a lot of gamers that have heard this chatter over the past few years may think of it. For whatever reason, the topic of the “Pro” model of the Switch has really deep hooks in gaming circles.
 

MP!

Member
Oct 30, 2017
5,193
Las Vegas
Nah, lets not now pretend that when people were talking about "iterative" they were just referring to the exact same thing as PS5/XSX.
I'm not sure I get what you're saying

"Iterative" was always thrown around in tandem with the iphone approach and that is what I think of.
my explanation was that the time frame or hardware can vary ... we'd never get a console every year... but that the platform is more than hardware...
 

Aether

Member
Jan 6, 2018
3,881
Mostly ignoring the clowns that can't understand the simple concept of this OLED model not being the model that I & Bloomberg have made mention of.

Yes... it appears the release timing may have been confused and the two merged on that front; but that doesn't negate any prior info of a 4K DLSS device equipped with a new chip, which other respected ERA insiders have also corroborated. If people want to ignore this smoke, that's their choice.

Mostly annoys when I said months ago that if an Aula/OLED model for 2021 happens that was not the hardware I was speaking of & that I've been talking something else.


Only a couple were Pro exclusive. Others remained compatible with the current Switch product line & would see enhancements while played on Pro hardware.
Have seen your video earlier today, and im 100% with you in being confused who this model is aimed at, except exploitation of FOMO/upgrade for people whos switch is dying , and the price... i think that only happened because they asumed the current market (all consoles sold out, GPUs that expensive,...) would accept a 50$ increase...

i still think there is something with the chip and all, like you mentioned, to much smoke... but the release of this one just makes the whole timeline wonky, i really think its the sequel ...
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,877
I'm not sure I get what you're saying

"Iterative" was always thrown around in tandem with the iphone approach and that is what I think of.
my explanation was that the time frame or hardware can vary ... we'd never get a console every year... but that the platform is more than hardware...

The whole iterative thing was thrown in to justify a device being more powerful than a mid-gen refresh but earlier than a successor. It's not the "iphone approach" if it takes 6 years for the more powerful version to come out, that's just a standard console generation and cross-gen/cross-ompatibility doesn't change that. No one is referring to the PS5 as an iterative successor to the PS4.
 

NateDrake

Member
Oct 24, 2017
6,382
Do you have any idea if these exclusives are targeting H1 2022 or H2? So we can have a better idea on the possible Switch DLSS release period
No specific timing beyond '2022' intent. The exclusives were a bit more vague and only '2022 or later'. But the problem with that thinking is that the games could be being made with future compatibility in mind -- meaning, if they are Switch OG compatible, they don't need to wait for the revision to launch.

Have seen your video earlier today, and im 100% with you in being confused who this model is aimed at, except exploitation of FOMO/upgrade for people whos switch is dying , and the price... i think that only happened because they asumed the current market (all consoles sold out, GPUs that expensive,...) would accept a 50$ increase...

i still think there is something with the chip and all, like you mentioned, to much smoke... but the release of this one just makes the whole timeline wonky, i really think its the sequel ...

In a way, the OLED model helped to clarify the timeline a bit because there was always that uncertainty about the status of the SoC & whether it taped out or not.
 

MP!

Member
Oct 30, 2017
5,193
Las Vegas
Is the system powerful enough to be a full generation upgrade over the Switch? If the answer is Yes ... then this is a Switch 2, no ifs, ands, or buts, and that can be a 2024 release, you don't want it or need it to be that close to a $350 OLED model.

If answer is "kinda/sorta/it's complicated/no" ... then that model shouldn't be released at this point period. It's too late for that.

You're going to end up with a semi-mediocre product that's going to become apparent as such as the years go on that pushes back a real successor by several years in which time you will lose market momentum.

At this point, chalk it up to COVID or whatever you want, but the time for a "just sorta OK upgrade to the Switch" has passed.
I agree completely with your point I think people are getting caught up on stupid names of systems.
we're well past the time for "pro" specs. A boosted switch is what we needed in 2019 for exactly what you're talking about.

I don't think the rumored Orin based specs are a boosted switch... do you view them that way?
to me even the low end 4 a78 and 4 a55 with 6sm gpu seems pretty generational over current specs.
Or... do you just want people to stop calling whatever is next a pro?

(I don't know why people are calling it anything it should just be referred to as "the next system" honestly)
 

NateDrake

Member
Oct 24, 2017
6,382
Frankly, you made the best case that I heard for there being two models in the works and that that was causing confusion. You convinced me.
It makes business sense. Get production of the screens going. The new shell. All of that.

We also don't know the impacts COVID had on development of the new SoC or software they may have wanted to launch alongside it. I get some of the frustrations; but the matter isn't that complex to understand. No one is going to confuse a dev kit that has no new functionality with a dev kit with 4K support and DLSS.

However, it could easily be confused from a production/supplier point since they would be aware that they are providing components for a new Switch, which OLED is.
 

UltraMagnus

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,330
I agree completely with your point I think people are getting caught up on stupid names of systems.
we're well past the time for "pro" specs. A boosted switch is what we needed in 2019 for exactly what you're talking about.

I don't think the rumored Orin based specs are a boosted switch... do you view them that way?
to me even the low end 4 a78 and 4 a55 with 6sm gpu seems pretty generational over current specs.
Or... do you just want people to stop calling whatever is next a pro?

(I don't know why people are calling it anything it should just be referred to as "the next system" honestly)

I'll put it this way

Is the overall hardware (GPU included) more like (A) PS4 to PS4 Pro or more like (B) PS4 to PS5.

If the answer to this question is A .... Nintendo you need to be slapped upside your head for charging $350 for an OLED model and then releasing that type of a model less than 12 months later.

You're begging to lose market momentum with moves like that. Quite frankly there shouldn't be a $350 OLED model period for late 2021 if you're planning to release *another* $350-$400 model in 2022.

That is not going to go over well. This isn't like a $130 DS Lite's with various other sub $200 side models.
 

MP!

Member
Oct 30, 2017
5,193
Las Vegas
The whole iterative thing was thrown in to justify a device being more powerful than a mid-gen refresh but earlier than a successor. It's not the "iphone approach" if it takes 6 years for the more powerful version to come out, that's just a standard console generation and cross-gen/cross-ompatibility doesn't change that. No one is referring to the PS5 as an iterative successor to the PS4.
OK I see your point now ... and I would agree... but I think in some ways It could be argued that it is in some ways.
I think that's even more the case with the xbox platform.

I'm not privy to the specific developer environments of any of these devices though I thought that PS4 and PS5 have pretty different kits in certain aspects and the xbox platform is more hardware agnostic... either way it seems to be that way based on their games and how they handle new releases and backwards compatibility...


Considering we have the comic book codename, we should do how differentiate Erista and Mariko switches
I think that would be fine too, just a standard to rally around so we don't get stuck arguing for pages about MARKETING...
 

bmfrosty

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,632
SF Bay Area
There's a lot of confusion about the idea of an iterative successor. Hardware wise it's the same thing as a Pro. The difference is marketing.

Pro: Improved hardware that is fully backwards compatible with the previous version of the hardware. May include driver or other OS level changes to handle edge cases. Examples of this are the GBC, DSi. This is marketed as being part of the same generation as it's predecessor and the next system follows the rules of a Successor below:

Successor: New Hardware. Achieves backwards compatibility by including the previous generation hardware in the system. There are a few variations on this. Best examples are PS2, PS3, GBA, and DS.

Iterative Successor: Improved hardware that is fully backwards compatible with the previous version of the hardware. May include driver or other OS level changes to handle edge cases. Examples of this are XBOX One S and XBOX One X. XBOX Series S|X will probably meet this criteria as well as long as the next systems by MS are also widely hardware compatible.
 

ILikeFeet

Member
Oct 25, 2017
50,250
I'll put it this way

Is the overall hardware (GPU included) more like (A) PS4 to PS4 Pro or more like (B) PS4 to PS5.

If the answer to this question is A .... Nintendo you need to be slapped upside your head for charging $350 for an OLED model and then releasing that type of a model less than 12 months later.

You're begging to lose market momentum with moves like that. Quite frankly there shouldn't be a $350 OLED model period for 2021 if you're planning to release *another* $350-$400 model in 2022.

That is not going to go over well. This isn't like a $130 DS Lite's with various other sub $200 side models.
It can be either or depending on how Nintendo wants to market it. It will be a big upgrade. Exactly what you might expect a PS4 to PS5 to be
 

Aether

Member
Jan 6, 2018
3,881
I'm not sure I get what you're saying

"Iterative" was always thrown around in tandem with the iphone approach and that is what I think of.
my explanation was that the time frame or hardware can vary ... we'd never get a console every year... but that the platform is more than hardware...
while not every year, tech is still progressing ast, so 2-3 years would have been the time for an iterative aproach. nintendos Generations where ~5.5 years since the N64 .
I know we are an enthusiasts bubble, but even causal nintendo fans are used to a new platform every 5 years.

The whole iterative thing was thrown in to justify a device being more powerful than a mid-gen refresh but earlier than a successor. It's not the "iphone approach" if it takes 6 years for the more powerful version to come out, that's just a standard console generation and cross-gen/cross-ompatibility doesn't change that. No one is referring to the PS5 as an iterative successor to the PS4.
Absolutely.
By that logic The Wii was an iterative aproach to the GC, and the wii u to that one...
selling it as an iterative upgrade to the switch would actively hur the marketing, we would have the wii u situation of "so its just an update, but not a new console? ill wiat for the new one".

In a way, the OLED model helped to clarify the timeline a bit because there was always that uncertainty about the status of the SoC & whether it taped out or not.
It clears up that the chip is not taped out it seems, but at the same time... a Pro/4k/Sequell jsut a year after a Premium 50$ more expensive model just screams "backlash"....
 

4859

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,046
In the weak and the wounded
I agree completely with your point I think people are getting caught up on stupid names of systems.
we're well past the time for "pro" specs. A boosted switch is what we needed in 2019 for exactly what you're talking about.

I don't think the rumored Orin based specs are a boosted switch... do you view them that way?
to me even the low end 4 a78 and 4 a55 with 6sm gpu seems pretty generational over current specs.
Or... do you just want people to stop calling whatever is next a pro?

(I don't know why people are calling it anything it should just be referred to as "the next system" honestly)
I agree completely with your point I think people are getting caught up on stupid names of systems.

You agree completely with the person getting completely hung up on names, about people getting hung up on names?

Lol whut?
 

UltraMagnus

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,330
It can be either or depending on how Nintendo wants to market it. It will be a big upgrade. Exactly what you might expect a PS4 to PS5 to be

This is a Switch 2 then. Enough with the ambiguity about it, it's just stupid at that point.

If your hardware leap is comparable to a PS4 to PS5 jump your system is a Switch 2 and prepare it as such.

If it's not that, then I think Nintendo needs to tread very, very carefully here, releasing a $350 OLED model this late in the Switch product cycle and a less than generational leap for presumably $350-$400 like less than a year later is indeed Sega style idiocy.
 

ILikeFeet

Member
Oct 25, 2017
50,250
This is a Switch 2 then. Enough with the ambiguity about it, it's just stupid at that point.

If your hardware leap is comparable to a PS4 to PS5 jump your system is a Switch 2.

If it's not that, then I think Nintendo needs to tread very, very carefully here, releasing a $350 OLED model this late in the Switch product cycle and a less than generational leap for presumably $350-$400 is indeed Sega style idiocy.
Nintendo will be fine.

This pro vs 2 discussion is some dumb shit anyway. It probably won't even be called the "pro" or "2". Call it whatever the hell you want. We're all talking about the same thing
 

Aether

Member
Jan 6, 2018
3,881
At some point they will learn to let people have their own expectations, and hopefully this latest situation helped them learn not to take speculation/rumor as law.
True. And i want a big jump if its 5+ years. 128gb at minimum ssd, 8gb ram, NO sub 1080 resolution anymore. docked more then [email protected] inch. (By the way: One Plus Nord, 128GB UFS 2.1, 8GB RAM, 2400x1080 6.44" 90Hz AMOLED... 316€ currently here, Austria/Germany)

I find the people with outlandisch expectations less anoying then those "i told you" and "you are so unrealistic, you have to
have the same expectations as i have!" users.

In the end we are fans and customers, not their emotional suport dogs. They want us to buy their products, so they have to delover somethign we want to buy. Thats at least how i see it... and i had a Wii U...
 
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bmfrosty

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,632
SF Bay Area
It clears up that the chip is not taped out it seems, but at the same time... a Pro/4k/Sequell jsut a year after a Premium 50$ more expensive model just screams "backlash"....
I'll agree to that under this enthusiast mindset, but if we eventually get to smartphone mindset, new processor bumps are normal there, and are really just handled by driver changes.

I think we're probably a decade away from having biennial video game consoles. Maybe two every other year for MIcrosoft if they keep up their S|X setup.
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,877
It makes business sense. Get production of the screens going. The new shell. All of that.

We also don't know the impacts COVID had on development of the new SoC or software they may have wanted to launch alongside it. I get some of the frustrations; but the matter isn't that complex to understand. No one is going to confuse a dev kit that has no new functionality with a dev kit with 4K support and DLSS.

However, it could easily be confused from a production/supplier point since they would be aware that they are providing components for a new Switch, which OLED is.

Using the exact same shell and screen for a new, even more expensive and more powerful model a year later sounds like the definition of confusing.

I'd be much more inclined to believe that this OLED model is entirely unrelated to the development of a more powerful device, whatever form that takes.
 

ILikeFeet

Member
Oct 25, 2017
50,250
Using the exact same shell and screen for a new, even more expensive and more powerful model a year later sounds like the definition of confusing.

I'd be much more inclined to believe that this OLED model is entirely unrelated to the development of a more powerful device, whatever form that takes.
I don't see how it would be confusing. It's gonna be in a different packaging and whatnot.
 

Maple

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,227
I don't think it's likely, given that choosing which process node to use to fabricate the SoC is not something a company can decide in a matter of a couple of months, but rather a couple of years. Also, kopite7kimi mentioned that (Ada) Lovelace is similar to Ampere in terms of architecture.

So the jump from Ampere to Lovelace will be similar to the jump from Maxwell to Pascal?
 

4859

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,046
In the weak and the wounded
This is a Switch 2 then. Enough with the ambiguity about it, it's just stupid at that point.

If your hardware leap is comparable to a PS4 to PS5 jump your system is a Switch 2 and prepare it as such.

If it's not that, then I think Nintendo needs to tread very, very carefully here, releasing a $350 OLED model this late in the Switch product cycle and a less than generational leap for presumably $350-$400 like less than a year later is indeed Sega style idiocy.
The difference is these are all the same system family with compatable architectures.

Nintendo can also literally release it like a pro at first with just better performance and higher resolutions, and start releasing exclusive games the og switch could not handle years down the line.

It's however they want to market the hardware. And I don't think anyone will say Nintendo won't do something because it might be dumb, or exploitative. I mean scalpers have readily shown the switch, or hell video game systems at large right now, are very much an inelastic product.
 
Nov 1, 2020
667
Ah, ok. Yeah, I dunno what's up with that or why I've heard about it earlier than I would have expected, but it's clearly not for something that's ready for the immediate future. I wouldn't be surprised to see it in a 2022/2023 product, but that's just my opinion.
Thanks!

A 2022/2023 window's pretty plausible now, yea. Now I'm starting to think of it in relation to big Orin. That's supposed to become available in 2022, right? So a 2022/2023 window would mean Dane gets released in year of Orin+0 (2022) or Orin+1 (2023) instead of Orin-1 (2021).
Along those lines, I can then see Next-next Switch being Atlan-derived and releasing in presumably Atlan+0 (2025) or Atlan+1 (2026).
 

Aether

Member
Jan 6, 2018
3,881
I'll agree to that under this enthusiast mindset, but if we eventually get to smartphone mindset, new processor bumps are normal there, and are really just handled by driver changes.

I think we're probably a decade away from having biennial video game consoles. Maybe two every other year for MIcrosoft if they keep up their S|X setup.
People Dont Use Consoles Same As Phones.
If your phone does not support a current app: tough luck, you accept it.
Most buy new phones every 2 years, but they NEED them, and its used for so many things (connunication/work/photos/music/payment/....) that the prices and changing them is acceptable.
And 90% of people dont use it for high end games, the downside is sometimes the phone takes a second longer.

A console is just for playing. Done. Its luxury. And if the processor changes, games dont just load a second slower.
And not being in the know what games play on your console, and when the support will end is a bigger topic, since with phones, buying the last one is good for years. If next year a new one comes, this chip wont be supported for another 5 years. it s way faster dated.
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,877
I don't see how it would be confusing. It's gonna be in a different packaging and whatnot.

Differentiating by box is fine when it's an "invisible" change like a Mariko box but you would want your major iterations to be distinctive even just for viral marketing purposes. If you put OG Switch, Switch OLED and Dane Switch(😉) in a row it's the latter that you want to stand out.
 

JershJopstin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,323
The oled model will replace the red box switch within a couple of months. Then it will be seen as the basic option and probably get a price cut to the switch's original rrp.
I think your timing is a little fast there. I expect the current model to last another year at least.
I think they'll clearance the LCD version when they see the higher demand to be for the OLED version.
What if the LCD remains the sales leader as long as it's on the market?
Mentioned in the other thread but figure I’ll point out here - by putting the Ethernet port in the back that means we lose the USB port that could support 3.0. They even still mention on their site that there are plans to upgrade it in the future. But now it’s not there!
There wasn't really anything to gain from that 3.0 port. Curiously, the Chinese accessory maker leak that nailed everything else claimed the side ports were 3.0.

The Ethernet port is almost certainly getting converted to USB before it goes to the Switch via the USB-C port, btw. It's possible it uses 3.0 now, especially since removing the large USB A port should make containing interference easier. I'm not exactly expecting it, but it is a possibility (and something we should be able to deduce from firmware).


Is the system powerful enough to be a full generation upgrade over the Switch? If the answer is Yes ... then this is a Switch 2, no ifs, ands, or buts, and that can be a 2024 release, you don't want it or need it to be that close to a $350 OLED model.
Here's a proposition for you.

The answer is yes, and Nintendo releases it in 2022 anyway - without strong exclusive support. Games release on both platforms, and support for the OG Switch slowly dies a few years later.

A hard generation gap like there used to be doesn't come until Nintendo moves on from the Switch model entirely.

As someone who's contemplating the OLED model, that wouldn't offend me. I don't expect the OLED model to sell well enough (as long as it's positioned as a $50 more expensive model) to upset many people anyway, it doesn't strike me as something that'll be popular. Such a move certainly wouldn't hurt their momentum; the device would be a compelling upgrade to the 84 million people that already own a Switch right now.

In a way, the OLED model helped to clarify the timeline a bit because there was always that uncertainty about the status of the SoC & whether it taped out or not.
Yeah. While the announcement initially bummed me a bit, now that the dust has settled it feels like a lot more pieces of the puzzle have fallen into place. Some of them didn't go where I wanted, but that's okay.

It's nice that most things line up now.
 

Adulfzen

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,880
Differentiating by box is fine when it's an "invisible" change like a Mariko box but you would want your major iterations to be distinctive even just for viral marketing purposes. If you put OG Switch, Switch OLED and Dane Switch(😉) in a row it's the latter that you want to stand out.
Nintendo themselves would probably treat the Dane Switch differently from a marketing perspective considering it'd be the first device from the Switch line to offer a substantial upgrade in terms of performance and visually, regardless of it being a "New 3DS" or a "Switch 2".

Call it being overconfident but the Switch brand is currently extremely popular so Nintendo is probably thinking of keeping that sweet train going as long as possible before whatever is next" (whether it's a completely different form factor or not).
 
OP
OP
Dakhil

Dakhil

Member
Mar 26, 2019
4,379
Orange County, CA
Using the exact same shell and screen for a new, even more expensive and more powerful model a year later sounds like the definition of confusing.
I think he could be talking about using a very similar, if not the same design, for the shell (as an example, a potentially more premium material for the console housing), but potentially different materials; and potentially the same exact type of screen, but different resolution.

So the jump from Ampere to Lovelace will be similar to the jump from Maxwell to Pascal?
It seems to be the case so far based on the very limited amount of information available so far.
 

Gobias-Ind

Member
Nov 22, 2017
3,313
This is a Switch 2 then. Enough with the ambiguity about it, it's just stupid at that point.

If your hardware leap is comparable to a PS4 to PS5 jump your system is a Switch 2 and prepare it as such.

If it's not that, then I think Nintendo needs to tread very, very carefully here, releasing a $350 OLED model this late in the Switch product cycle and a less than generational leap for presumably $350-$400 like less than a year later is indeed Sega style idiocy.

There is no ambiguity. The extent of the hardware leap that has been speculated has been consistent for months. The only ambiguity is in the hypothetical marketing which, to me, is an odd thing to get so hung up on. You insist that it has to be called "Switch 2" if it's actually an appreciable improvement. Some may argue that Nintendo has never called their hardware "Anything 2" and who cares whether they do or not?

Also, you don't need to have any foresight into Nintendo's future moves to hate the (OLED model). You're calling following it up with a worthwhile upgrade "idiocy", but it will probably just amount to a short negative PR cycle that gets drowned out by the hype for the new model, millions of (OLED model) units sold at an insane profit margin and demand for the 2022 model that far outpaces supply. Nintendo makes a move every other month that makes industry press and thousands of gamers go "what the fuck, you assholes?" Please look forward to receiving $50 extra credit when you trade in your (OLED model) toward the purchase of a Nintendo Switch (2).
 

bmfrosty

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,632
SF Bay Area
People Dont Use Consoles Same As Phones.
If your phone does not support a current app: tough luck, you accept it.
Most buy new phones every 2 years, but they NEED them, and its used for so many things (connunication/work/photos/music/payment/....) that the prices and changing them is acceptable.
And 90% of people dont use it for high end games, the downside is sometimes the phone takes a second longer.

A console is just for playing. Done. Its luxury. And if the processor changes, games dont just load a second slower.
And not being in the know what games play on your console, and when the support will end is a bigger topic, since with phones, buying the last one is good for years. If next year a new one comes, this chip wont be supported for another 5 years. it s way faster dated.
Then people who aren't enthusiasts skip every other system. Just like phones. Enthusiasts buy new ones every time. I was going to stick with my One S for MS gaming as long as it could still play the games I wanted to play on it, but got a wild hair and bought a Series X to replace it. What Microsoft is doing is exactly like cell phones, except the time frames are slightly longer. Sony is starting to get there, and I have full belief that Nintendo will get there.

It will get to a point where it's always and never a good or bad time to buy the system. If you buy the new system, it will be at most 2 year old tech.
What if the LCD remains the sales leader as long as it's on the market?
Then they adjust their pricing strategy. As I said, a full accounting would require a decision tree.
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
For me it is rather simple: does it hafe an improvement that influences gamedesign and by that breaks compatibility with the prior gen when games target those features.

Se: cpu that is worlds apart from the base, so that games that use it to its fullest are not possible on older hardware, or super fast storage, new input mehtods/sensors, ...

iterative would have been: have such features, but less strongly expressed, and not fully utilized by most games till the old hardware is phased out.(iphone model)
For that you need to have regular feature upgrades, but one every 5 years is to far away for that, iterativ falls flatt in my opinion.

I mean, both of them scenarios you're listing are more or less the same hardware, just positioned with a different marketing and development strategy. That's the point I've been trying to make, when speculating on what the hardware is, there's no actual difference between a pro or a 2 or whatever you want to call it. All of that comes down to Nintendo's strategy, both in terms of communication with fans and with development partners.
 
Dec 21, 2020
4,993
I took liberties of charting it on graph to see it more appropriately:

uZ69uB4.png


y1X0Jsb.png


k2v6qaE.png


The numbers next to the GPUs represent the amount of tensor cores they have.

I was thinking in taking the current conversation there as it can be more interesting to see how it would scale with lesser tensor cores on a mobile device.

Of these, the most comparable are the 2060 Super and the 3080, in terms of Tensor Core count. And of that, only the UHD 4K values and lower are of importance here for the mobile T239 device.


Edit, more charts!:

OL5WHJh.png


Here's the chart of the 2060 Super:
UCnkumV.png


This is the RTX 3080:

oEEcKVY.png





Things to note for anyone analyzing these, the first dot represents 1920x1080, the second 2560x1440 and the final dot represents 3840x2160

I will edit this to add a few more.


YLVoXId.png



So, for Turing the formula seems to be that for a close proximity and for Ampere is seems to be that for the close proximity.


Hope this is of any help to anyone


EDIT AGAIN!: These are the the desktop class GPUs, the ones in Orin are different, but in assumption that we have the Desktop class tensor cores in a small device, it should give an idea of how long it takes for it and how it scales. Just to keep in mind, not to make assumptions based on it definitely being the desktop equivalents.


And also, the 3080 is clocked 3.6% faster at the higher bound and 2.08% slower at the lower bound than the 2060 Super
Going back to this post, if clocked equally, a 3080 would theoretically take ~0.41ms at 1920x1080, ~0.61ms for 2560x1440 and ~1.22ms for 3840x2160.

B5qCBzX.png


And a linearized chart now


At 1080p, in this theoretical scenario, the 2060S is 1.86x slower than the 3080 to perform DLSS.

At 1440p, in this theoretical scenario, the 2060S is ~2.068x slower than the 3080 to perform DLSS.

At 2160p, in this theoretical scenario, the 2060S is ~2.239x slower than the 3080 to perform DLSS.


Or conversely, 3080 with DLSS takes 53.58% of the time to render the same scene of a 2060S at 1080p.

or, the 3080 with DLSS takes 48.34% of the time to render the same scene of a 2060S at 1440p.

or, the 3080 with DLSS takes 44.65% of the time to render the same scene of a 2060S at 2160p