Let me clarify:
The new SoC is based on info given to me from contacts in the position to know such things. The time frame for the chip being taped out is informed speculation on my part. It's not set in stone.
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Let me clarify:
The new SoC is based on info given to me from contacts in the position to know such things. The time frame for the chip being taped out is informed speculation on my part. It's not set in stone.
It is to early to say that. By all the rumors going on by different people and that there are actually dev kits going out, there is a high chance that we will see hardware with an upgraded/new chip (with hopefully dlss) within the next 12 months.
Well it's not just the performance increase, Matt confirmed it's a different SoC altogether.
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Digital Foundry was speculating about the new model in a video today, which sounded similar to what the Aula datamines said.
I can't say I have very much faith in this article. Here's a line from it:
As I'm sure anyone in this thread knows, the Switch hasn't used the 20nm TX1 since 2019. If they don't even know what chip the Switch is actually using then I can't place a whole lot of trust in their claim that it's going out of production.
As an aside, I think a lot of this discussion of Switch chips going out of production is based on a misunderstanding between the original 20nm TX1 and the 16nm/12nm Mariko/TX1+. The original 20nm TX1 reached end-of-life in January, according to Nvidia, however they list Jetson Nano as being available until 2025. That means they can't possibly be terminating Mariko/TX1+ production this year, as they've committed to keeping Jetson Nano available for another 4 years, and they can't do that without TX1 chips (which don't exist any more) or Mariko chips. I think some people have seen the TX1 reaching end of life and, not realising the distinction between it and Mariko, are erroneously reporting that "Switch's SoC is ending production" when the actual SoC Switch currently uses is still very much in production. Not everyone keeps up on the minutia of die shrinks and revisions of console SoCs, so it's hardly that surprising.
That doesn't mean Nintendo is going to keep using Mariko for any particular length of time; they could drop it later this year and Nvidia would simply keep a trickle of production going for Jetson Nano, but they can also keep using it for as long as they want.
Yeah, if there's a new $299 model this year then they're obviously not going to replace it at the same price point six months later. My guess would be $399 for the more powerful model in that case, as a $50 difference seems very low given the performance gap. Also agreed that a new OLED Switch model could come sooner than we expect if it's still using Mariko. Judging by Bloomberg's timeline for the OLED panels, September's a distinct possibility.
Well, as I said above I'm not particularly convinced that Mariko production is ending, and we could be reading too much into the code names. It could be, for example, that models compatible with the original 1080p dock start with I, but models which are compatible with the new HDMI 2.1 dock start with A? It could be loads of things, but looking for patterns with a single digit number of examples and then being confused when new data doesn't fit that pattern isn't anything new. :)
I'm assuming that timeframe is wrong, because a Tape out occurs waaay before mass production and rollout.
Like that's when you've just got the machines configured to fabricate the Dies but havent even produced prototype silicon yet.
EDIT: Tape out to Roll out can be like a 1 and a half year timeframe
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Does a tape out of chips (APUs, SoCs, etc.) usually occur at a minimum of 6 months before mass production begins? Or does it take longer (i.e. 1 year)?
It's not like nintendo has their own fabs a d is completely in control of everything.
Tsmc's current state of 16nm certainly doesnt look like it would be able to guarantee 28 million soc's to nintendo this year. And they just raised the prices on 16nm after their discount didnt pan out, 16nm was only 13% of their 2020 revenue.
That makes a ton of sense, that people are mistaking TX1's EOL for TX1+. That's probably the best theory to resolve that rumor. Perhaps Thugstas could chime in if he has any thoughts on that.
I still feel like the code name points to something more than the same type of redbox revision but I'll admit it's certainly not clear evidence of anything, just of a feeling.
Yeah I saw that earlier.
I don't know any details of Tsmc's fabs, just saying the idea that they have stock to get rid of after a record breaking unexpected year doesn't seem right.
But sure if they have a cost effective plan to replace Switch & Switch Lite over a year I don't have a problem with the idea that they are ending TX1 this year.
Thraktor yes that was always my favourite potential conclusion to that rumour, it's the funniest option.
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What I can say is that as of right now, the final design (for the hardware I've heard about) hasn't been taped out. Again, when that will happen is informed speculation on my part, but it hasn't happened yet (not speculation).
Hmm that definitely points to a 2022 (or later) release. Bummer.
So being mass produced by July wouldn't be out of the question yet? I have no idea how long these things go through testing.
But wait, that doesn't line up at all.
We know there are Devkits out, and a good number based on what has been stated by other reputable leakers.
If it's a 2022 Release, that is WAAAAAAAAY too early for a Revision/Pro Devkit with only a few 3rd party exclusives expected in it's first 3 years to be out to that many, or even outside of Nintendo's First/2nd parties.
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I think it depends on when the SoC is being tapped out.
Anyway, if the SoC is being tapped out in early 2022, I guess the new model might be released on late summer/early autumn 2023 at the earliest if taping out the SoC takes 1.5 years before mass production.
Oh, yeah, I don't expect it to be a redbox style revision (which 90% of consumers probably weren't aware of), I'd fully expect they'd advertise it as being a new HDR model, or something along those lines. They would definitely have some kind of branding to clearly reflect that it's got an improved screen (and maybe HDR output via the new dock).
In my earlier posts about this (here and here), I had referred to it as a Switch "S" and Switch "X", and I think the XBox One S and X would be a good model for it. They don't necessarily have to change the name of the base model, but maybe a change in visual design (certainly a move to a 7" screen would be noticeable in and of itself), and definitely highlighted by Nintendo as a new model. Then the "X" model would follow the same design language, but with a different colour or otherwise enough changes to make it clear which is which.
Again though, if Devkits are out, as stated by Nate and others, that means the SoC is either finalized or about to be finalized to the point it will enter production within a month or so.
You do not send Devkits out to 3rd parties for a product over a year out, especially if it's a Pro/Revision/Upgrade with only a few exclusives expected in it's first few years.
Yeah I'm just super confused now.
Imran said dev kits should be out and to mostly expect framerate and resolution improvements. The only thing that makes sense is for folks to be talking about two different things (or to be completely misinformed)
Irman said Devkits are out, Nate and others stated this was accurate, Nate said he knows of one Exclusive in development for the new system.
It wouldn't be advisable. After the signoff process (which the new SoC may be under as we speak, I dunno), there are a series of debugging/verification/validation tests to go through that can take several months to complete. Also, not all tape outs are successful (though ideally you'd want to address any errors pre-silicon) and can go through multiple iterations, usually if there are problems.
Considering the above factors, I'm not confident about the new SoC beginning mass production by July, but I don't wanna speculate too much about what's going on there.
First off i'd like to say thank you for your work, I do believe you.
However, is it possible that this is actually the "Switch Pro Lite" chip (ie smaller node version) or Switch 2?
Because if it's not taped out now, not only is it not coming this year, it's probably not coming next year :(
Those two reports aren't mutually exclusive. You can have dev kits based on non-finalized specs. If I recall correctly, that was the case with the PS4 & PS5.
brainchild thanks.
I wonder if this is all connected with the mysterious 'Nano Next' being shifted from 2021 to 2023 last month.
I wonder if this is all connected with the mysterious 'Nano Next' being shifted from 2021 to 2023 last month.
I didn't say anything about the silicon used in the dev kits.
Exactly.
It's the best to trust the most reputable sources. I'm still on the team Mochi-Nate-Imran. This thing exists and will enter mass production in summer. Devkits are out there are people are already making exclusives for it. Period.
It seems that everyone missed the part where I said the early 2022 taped out estimate was likely at the latest, lol
As I've mentioned before, I have no idea how it's going to be marketed/positioned. I personally haven't seen direct evidence of the dev kits either, but I've heard about them and believe they've been sent out. Is it possible that the hardware I've heard about is a successor? Sure, but I don't know either way.
From what I've heard, the dev kits are not final spec, so I expect them to evolve as the new SoC gets ready for mass production.
As I've mentioned before, I have no idea how it's going to be marketed/positioned. I personally haven't seen direct evidence of the dev kits either, but I've heard about them and believe they've been sent out. Is it possible that the hardware I've heard about is a successor? Sure, but I don't know either way.
From what I've heard, the dev kits are not final spec, so I expect them to evolve as the new SoC gets ready for mass production.
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It's theoretically possible since Nintendo did that with the Wii U with the Wii U Basic bundle having 8 GB whilst the Wii U Deluxe (or Premium) bundle has 32 GB. But I'm not sure if Nintendo wants to repeat that.
Devkits can be out before the final SoC has been taped out. There's nothing strange about that.
And assembly can begin in July for the Aula model, there's no clear indication that this "pro" will begin production or launch near whatever Aula turns out to be.
And assembly can begin in July for the Aula model, there's no clear indication that this "pro" will begin production or launch near whatever Aula turns out to be.
No. we don't know.
Based on what Nate, -Imran, and Mochi have stated, it seems that Devkits are out there at a decent amount of companies having them.
If the SoC is finalized or near finalization, screen production starting in June, and Assembly in July, that means it would most likely hit in Fall 2021 still as otherwise it'd be too early to send Devkits out, especially for a system like this one that isn't an Next-Gen Switch in marketing terms.
Just throwing this out there so the possibility can be crossed out or not:
brainchild: would you say that the new SoC you're hearing about is the same as the one that Nate is hearing? Or are you two hearing about different new SoCs, thus the prospective timeline confusion the rest of us are having?
brainchild: would you say that the new SoC you're hearing about is the same as the one that Nate is hearing? Or are you two hearing about different new SoCs, thus the prospective timeline confusion the rest of us are having?
DF released a video where they speculate that the new model releasing this year is Aula.
Because some of the insiders said that the DevKits don't have the finalized specs yet, and how Brainchild mentioned how long the process usually takes after the specs of the hardware are finalized, I'm having a hard time seeing the "Pro" as a 2021 release.
The other model seems locked for Fall 2021, though.
More so than that, I'm pretty sure the first dev-kits for new consoles are always pre-silicon. Otherwise you give developers almost no time to get games ready for the system.
Edit: Actually, Switch was probably the one exception to this, as TX1 was already available to use in dev kits.
I can't speak for Nate. He's shared his info about a revision doing 4K via DLSS, and that would make sense with the new SoC that I've heard about. Nothing I've heard about so far has conflicted with what Nate has shared, but does conflict with the idea of a X1+ refresh, unless that refresh will ultimately be a different SKU than the hardware I've heard about.
I'd expect early dev kits to go to trusted partners first. Imran's tweet suggested many people have it, and he had expected it (the new Switch ) to leak.
Though no devkit details have leaked yet (potentially with the exception of hints from insiders here) I'm wondering how we reconcile this, unless Nintendo's aiming for a big bang launch and already have enough parts to mass ship dev kits to multiple devs, despite final hardware being potentially a year away.
I'd be stoked if the new hardware goes on sale before the end of next March, regardless of Zelda BotW2's exact release date--Be it day and date with Switch Pro, or anytime in Q1/Q2 2022.
That's just the thing though ANY new SoC has to be "The Pro" in essense.
As it would be a Ampere based SoC, therefore able to use DLSS.
That is the only reason for Devkits to exist.
So there is an Ampere SoC based system coming out this Fall based on everything we know so far, and Irman's statements incline that the Devkits are close to final as well...they are devkits and there are a good number to be surprised about a lack of leaks.
These Devkits are coming out sooner than the Devkits for the Xbox One X did relative to it's year of release, how do you reconcile that with "Oh the specs aren't finalized yet" to the degree that it would push it out into 2022 or even 2023.
Oh, ok. So, they apparently out of the loop. I see that it was part of a direct, so it looks like they don't have any news on it.
Edit: or are just unbiased on the different rumors for the time being.
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