GamesBeat Summit: Andrew House talks about the next generation of consoles and more

[gcwy]

MOD EDIT

This talk happened during Games Beat summit that has been going this week

https://venturebeat.com/2018/04/10/ex-playstation-boss-andrew-house-consoles-have-a-bright-future/

Here is the complete footage from the talk



OP:

Polygon Summary

During a talk with veteran tech analyst Mike Vorhaus, he speculated on the future of consoles, predicting that PlayStation 4 has a long life ahead.

He refused to be drawn on any speculation about PlayStation 5, the likely successor to PS4, stating that he was in no position to talk about Sony's future plans. But he said he was "bullish" about the future of consoles and of PS4, which he predicted would not be shuffled away any time soon.

"In 2013, the vast majority of conventional wisdom was saying that consoles were dead," House said. "The whole market was moving to mobile and there was no future for this. I remember saying to myself, to use a very English metaphor, 'Am I going to be the last governor of Hong Kong, overseeing the end of consoles?' Fortunately, all those impending doom mongers were all very wrong."

Vorhaus pressed House on the likely timing of a PlayStation 5, remarking that the machine is likely in an advanced state of design right now "in laboratories." House deflected "the specifics," but indicated a general view among hardware manufacturers, that hardware cycles can, and ought to be, a lot longer than they were in the past.

"I'm very bullish on longer life cycles for consoles," House said. "Consoles are so under-represented and under-penetrated in so many markets around the globe. There's so much potential. Let's not forget that China is still largely [untapped]."

The gap between PlayStation 2's launch and that of PlayStation 3 was six years. The PlayStation 4 arrived seven years later. PlayStation 4 is now approaching its fifth birthday. Industry speculation generally pegs PlayStation 5 as coming in around 2020 or 2021.

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House touched on the ability to upgrade consoles inside generations, such as PlayStation 4 Pro and Xbox One X, as reasons to believe PS4 will have a long life. He also spoke of the power of mass data collection, which hardware companies can leverage to extend the life of their products "in a safe and manageable way."

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House predicted that next-generation consoles will still likely operate with discs, rather than downloads and streams-only.

"I don't have any firm knowledge on this, but my sense is that you will see the disc around in the industry for a while," he said. "If you're going to tap into some of these [developing] markets, then allowing for that more traditional physical purchase model as an option is probably no bad thing."

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House said that cloud-streaming of games will likely be a significant factor in the next generation of consoles.

"If you look back at console gaming history, there are certain inflection points that allow for the industry to be upended and for new participants to emerge," he said. "One of those is when you have a wholesale shift in the distribution method.

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More here: https://www.polygon.com/2018/4/11/17225834/playstation-5-next-generation-andrew-house

Emboldened the important stuff. Even more reason to doubt a 2019 release.

Lock before 2020 if old.

 

[Deleted member 16876]

Hopefully his thoughts are true as I feel like there is more juice to be squeezed out of the current consoles.

 

[X Wi77iaM X]

2020 seems an perfect timing for me, im predicting this for some long time.

 

[JeffGubb]

This was from the GamesBeat Summit earlier this week. You can watch it here. The last minute or so is silenced because of Twitch DMCA stuff, but we'll have the full audio on YouTube soon.

 

[SaintBowWow]

More ceiling to the 2020+ release date, and it makes sense.

Less and less developers have the capabilities to make AAA games on the current hardware as-is, and the heavy hitters like Rockstar or CD Projekt Red are looking to be releasing one game a generation due to the time and labor involved in making games of the scale and polish they are known for. Plus, we're at a point where labor is holding back the scope of games moreso than tech, so all a new gen would do at this point is allow developers to make the exact same game they would have released on the PS4/Xbox One look prettier.

Like House says, with the potential to reach a global market with the current generation why would anyone release a new generation that would have a limited visual upgrade (especially with mid-gen refreshes) and would only satisfy the enthusiast crowd that prefers to hype up new plastic boxes more than actually play video games?

 

[Cess007]

His comment on why next-gen consoles will still have discs is spot on. Yes, digital is growing, yes internet is getting better and cheaper... on certain countries. In others, disc is still the best option.

 

[Inuhanyou]

good

 

[Birdo]

PS5, 2020 $499 please.

 

[Xumbrega]

Yeah, it's late 2020/early 2021 as expected.

 

[N.Domixis]

of course it will, MS vision is so far off, it will only work once wifi exists throughout the entire planet at lightning fast speeds.

 

[Barajas_201]

2020 feels right to me.

 

[bsigg]

of course it will, MS vision is so far off, it will only work once wifi exists throughout the entire planet at lightning fast speeds.

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So 5G/Space X world wide internet?

 

[Gemüsepizza]

More here: https://www.polygon.com/2018/4/11/17225834/playstation-5-next-generation-andrew-house

Emboldened the important stuff. Even more reason to doubt a 2019 release.

Lock before 2020 if old.

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No, not at all. He wrote this:

"I'm very bullish on longer life cycles for consoles," House said. "Consoles are so under-represented and under-penetrated in so many markets around the globe. There's so much potential. Let's not forget that China is still largely [untapped]."

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He is clearly talking about the PS4 life cycle in emerging markets. This has no effect on PS5 launch in the US/Europe etc., and is exactly what has happened with previous consoles, too.

 

[TwinsUltra64]

His comment on why next-gen consoles will still have discs is spot on. Yes, digital is growing, yes internet is getting better and cheater... on certain countries. In others, disc is still the best option.

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I still love retail versions.

 

[cakely]

Nothing he said messes with my prediction: PS5 in holiday 2020, $400.

Unless there's severe inflation between now and then, $500 will still be considered too expensive to be mainstream.

 

[Abrasion Test]

Publishers are going to be pushing to have a foothold in cloud streaming for games super hard next gen. Everyone is going to want to the next Steam, as in the first successful player in the market with the most influence. Wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of games launching through streaming day and date with disc and digital counterparts in 6-8 years.

 

[TripaSeca]

Very sober and insightful. I'm very happy with my pro and honestly hope it gets milked to exhaustion like the PS3

 

[FelipeMGM]

did some edits to give the original sources their due credit

 

[Heckler456]

I still remember someone from Sony saying, on some stage or another, that the PS4 would be relevant for the next decade. Whether that implies a decade long console cycle, I doubt it. But at the same time, I wouldn't be surprised either. Studios, this time around; seem to have released far fewer titles in general.

 

[Kyoufu]

Andrew House basically says 7nm FinFET will be a leap.

 

[Monty Mole]

His comment on why next-gen consoles will still have discs is spot on. Yes, digital is growing, yes internet is getting better and cheaper... on certain countries. In others, disc is still the best option.

Click to shrink...

I don't think the next Xbox will have a drive. I think they'll leave the traditional market to Sony and do their own thing with a digital focus. Although they'll need to avoid a repeat of 2013.

 

[BitsandBytes]

No, not at all. He wrote this:



He is clearly talking about the PS4 life cycle in emerging markets. This has no effect on PS5 launch in the US/Europe etc., and is exactly what has happened with previous consoles, too.

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Have to agree. I'm not sure why all these articles talking down next-gen coming anytime soon are coming out the woodwork all of a sudden!?

Also this Jack Tretton comment (to give one example) about a possible PS4 announcement reads awfully familiar! https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2012-02-17-sony-us-boss-tretton-downplays-ps4-2012-announcement

The tone and how they phrase things is classic politicians talk. I get it, but asking execs from the company involved will only get you non-answers.

 

[Stilton Disco]

Brilliant. With longer and longer dev cycles needed for games, I'm more than happy to stick with current gen for a good while longer yet.

2020 is the earliest I can see next gen being worth starting, but I'd honestly be happy if it were a year or two longer than that.

 

[Heckler456]

I don't think the next Xbox will have a drive. I think they'll leave the traditional market to Sony and do their own thing with a digital focus. Although they'll need to avoid a repeat of 2013.

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I think the retail market is still too important to just drop physical altogether.

 

[Starlatine]

His comment on why next-gen consoles will still have discs is spot on. Yes, digital is growing, yes internet is getting better and cheaper... on certain countries. In others, disc is still the best option.

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I live in a third world country and physical is crazy overpriced here. Digital is far, far more viable specially if you buy from other regions stores. I can't understand the "physical is better for smaller markets" argument at all. When its avaliable, even - most of the country is still largely unsupported.

 

[Prine]

I'm thinking 2021/22 given how well the PS systems are selling.

 

[Cess007]

I live in a third world country and physical is crazy overpriced here. Digital is far, far more viable specially if you buy from other regions stores. I can't understand the "physical is better for smaller markets" argument at all. When its avaliable, even - most of the country is still largely unsupported.

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Right now, I can go to Amazon Mexico and buy a lot of games physical, cheaper in comparison to PSN prices. For example, right now Dishonored Death of the Outsider is $10dlls cheaper phyiscal, Prey is $20dlls, and the price difference between digital and physical version of BF1 Revolution Day is almost $30 (in favor of the physical version).

This may not be the case of all countries, of course, but that's my point. There are still a lot of countries in which physical prices tends to be cheaper than digital.

 

[jroc74]

Still team 2019 until 2020 gets here and there's no PS5, lol.

 

[Starlatine]

Right now, I can go to Amazom Mexico and buy almost every single game physical, cheaper in comparison to PSN prices. For example, right now Dishonored Death of the Outsider is $10dlls cheaper phyiscal, Prey is $20dlls, BF1 Revolution Day the difference is almost $30.

This may not be the case of all countries, of course, but that's my point. There are still a lot of countries in which physical prices tends to be cheaper than digita.

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i would assume that mexico being closer to the US brings some advantages in this aspect - the situation is clearly not this favorable in brazil at all. and well, every other country in the world not called mexico or canada to take advantage of bordering the US. could be wrong though, i can only speak for my own country

 

[TheSpaceBetween]

Hoping for holiday 2020 at the earliest.

 

[gcwy]

No, not at all. He wrote this:
He is clearly talking about the PS4 life cycle in emerging markets. This has no effect on PS5 launch in the US/Europe etc., and is exactly what has happened with previous consoles, too.

Click to shrink...

That single quote may not be concrete evidence for a longer life cycle, but the rest of the article does.

Have to agree. I'm not sure why all these articles talking down next-gen coming anytime soon are coming out the woodwork all of a sudden!?

Also this Jack Tretton comment (to give one example) about a possible PS4 announcement reads awfully familiar! https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2012-02-17-sony-us-boss-tretton-downplays-ps4-2012-announcement

The tone and how they phrase things is classic politicians talk. I get it, but asking execs from the company involved will only get you non-answers.

Click to shrink...

That article seems to have an entirely different tone and premise. He dodges most of the questions and gives no reasons why PS4 wouldn't be launching soon other than the usual "We're focused on the [current console] right now." The article itself wasn't wrong either, PS4 wasn't announced in 2012. On the other hand, Andrew House makes lots of compelling arguments as to why we might not see PS5 coming any time soon.

 

[Cess007]

i would assume that mexico being closer to the US brings some advantages in this aspect - the situation is clearly not this favorable in brazil at all. and well, every other country in the world not called mexico or canada to take advantage of bordering the US. could be wrong though, i can only speak for my own country

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Yes, I think I remember you once posting about being from Brazil, and I how crazy the prices are over there. On that, well, yeah, you're pretty much right, the digital seems like a WAY better option.

 

[Starlatine]

Yes, I think I remember you once posting about being from Brazil, and I how crazy the prices are over there. On that, well, yeah, you're pretty much right, the digital seems like a WAY better option.

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i know our country is... unique regarding game prices, but seriously, phys only here is not an option for anyone but the most wealthy. in fact some games having physical versions make things even worse for us - leading to cases like Song of the Deep had the crazy 150R$ price for a while when Tacoma, digital only here, was being offered by 25R$ in a pretty fair price conversion. so yeah, its hard to advocate for physical games over digital being a brazilian, at least for me

 

[SageShinigami]

Nothing he said messes with my prediction: PS5 in holiday 2020, $400.

Unless there's severe inflation between now and then, $500 will still be considered too expensive to be mainstream.

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This. Literally exactly this.

 

[Deleted member 5596]

"If you're going to tap into some of these [developing] markets, then allowing for that more traditional physical purchase model as an option is probably no bad thing."

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You know, I never thought about this. Is one excellent argument in favour of disc based presence in consoles at least for a while.

 

[BitsandBytes]

That article seems to have an entirely different tone and premise. He dodges most of the questions and gives no reasons why PS4 wouldn't be launching soon other than the usual "We're focused on the [current console] right now." The article itself wasn't wrong either, PS4 wasn't announced in 2012. On the other hand, Andrew House makes lots of compelling arguments as to why we might not see PS5 coming any time soon.

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Wasn't talking about the premise, I was just saying that if you ask a question to a exec of a company about something they can't/won't talk about you'll get a politicians answer/lot of waffle. Also, from the video I watched, Andrew House doesn't comment at all about PS5? Maybe vaguely in general "next-gen" terms?

The main point I'm making is that nothing of note is, or will, come from asking those closest to a product so those in this thread saying "2020 confirmed" or similar is a bit silly to me. 2019 is possible as is 2020 IMO.

I would like to make clear though that some things that Andrew House talked about in this video was very interesting/insightful. The stuff about VR and early PlayStation was great.

 

[Mecha Meister]

I've been wondering if we could see another 7+ year console generation again, I've been hoping for that as the potential improvements to hardware will be bigger if the next generation consoles launch later rather than sooner, such as 2020-2021 as I initially predicted. It also kinda gives developers more time to work on games as development times and costs have increased for projects such as large project AAA games.
I wonder how the developers feel about longer generations though?

In this generation in a period of five years Rockstar released a remaster of Grand Theft Auto V, with Red Dead Redemption 2 is on it's way for an October 2018 launch.
Last generation in a period of five years (2008-2013) Rockstar Games released Grand Theft Auto IV, Midnight Club Los Angeles, Red Dead Redemption, Max Payne 3 and Grand Theft Auto V. They also released two expansion packs for GTA 4 and one for Red Dead Redemption along with numerous DLCs.
GTA V then went on to become a live service game, with Red Dead Redemption 2 likely to follow the same path.

I do wonder if Rockstar are also working on other games alongside Red Dead Redemption 2, perhaps Bully 2? I also wonder how many people they have working on their games now, as in 2013 Leslie Benzies said that 1000+ people worked on GTA V due to the size of the project.

Edit - Improved clarity.