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Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
Who's to say those seats aren't going to be won by an alt-right candidate who flouts being an outsider that will break up the system to get things done? Like I think these Republicans are going to get flayed, I'm not sure who America will choose as their successor though.
Most people wouldn't see much or any difference between standard Republicans and the alt-right (for better or worse). They'd see someone with an R next to their name and come out to vote against them, because they threw their lot in with a shitty president and party.

Every time there's a big wave (like what we could see in 2018), incumbent Congresspeople everywhere try running away from the president as if it will do anything for their chances, and it almost never does. All the conservative Southern Democratic congressmen who got blown out in 2010 are equivalent to today's suburban Republicans, who thrive on appearing bipartisan and appealing to voters' desire for "checks and balances" (ie I want a Congress who prevents the president from doing everything he wants to do... which over the last years meant preventing him from doing ANYTHING). Now Trump is president and they have to answer for it.

Put it like this: in Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District, Clinton won by 9 points while the GOP Congressman, Erik Paulsen won by 13 points. All those split-ticketers thought Clinton would win easily and wanted to send their Republican Congressman back to fight her when she pushed policies that were too extreme. He could still very well win, but now that dynamic is going to be reversed, and the usual base of voters will likely not turn out as highly as usual.
 

gcubed

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,785
It's going to be interesting because they keep giving back any ways they would possibly pay for the huge corporate cuts. SALT saves trillions, oh you're mad? We won't cut that. 401k moves tax revenue to current and generates hundreds of billions. Oh you don't like that? We won't cut it.

And somehow this is going to 1) result in a tax cut for regular people 2) not balloon the deficit

These things don't work together. Either it's going to be an explosion of debt so the freedom caucus can't swallow it or it's going to raise taxes, and they will be murdered in the news. There isn't a middle ground here
 

Chrome Hyena

Member
Oct 30, 2017
8,769
the funding of pet projects in lawmakers' districts helped leadership to keep members in line, but fueled a culture of venality and waste; boondoggles like the "Bridge to Nowhere," a 2005 project calling for a $223 million earmark to construct a bridge to a remote, sparsely populated Alaska island, became symbols of congressional excess. Boehner never accepted an earmark in Congress—and he enjoyed railing against those who did. His heckling once provoked Don Young, an Alaskan himself, to pin Boehner against a wall inside the House chamber and hold a 10-inch knife to his throat. Boehner says he stared Young in the eyes and said, "Fuck you." (Young says this account is "mostly true," but notes that the two became good friends, with Boehner later serving as his best man.)!

This is crazy, and from the John Boehner article posted on the previous page.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/s...lican-party-retirement-profile-feature-215741
 

RDreamer

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,106
I have good news! Our president told us that we can always pay off the debt, because we can just print the money!!

http://money.cnn.com/2016/05/11/news/economy/donald-trump-print-money/index.html

....He is either breathtakingly stupid, or just assumes that his voters are....or both.

It's both.

Trump's statement is factually true, though, and holy shit that CNN article is trash. I don't want to defend Trump much but his statement implied literally none of what they're saying it implied.

The statement: "This is the United States government. First of all, you never have to default because you print the money,"

That's true. A fiat monetary system defaulting is the result of something political not technical. We can always pay our debts and we always have been 'printing money.' The explanation of why printing money is a bad idea is sort of true but it's alarmist. Printing more money causes inflation, yes, but we've been doing that for a very long time. Some inflation is good, and it's what we have had. Nothing in Trump's statement says "We should print money past the point where inflation becomes a detriment."

He's not implying we do something like Zimbabwe because we're not fucking Zimbabwe. Inflation is not the same as hyper inflation and the situations of the United States and Zimbabwe aren't even remotely close. The entire economy collapsed in Zimbabwe. They also had foreign currency obligations along with that collapse in production.

Here are some others saying basically the same thing as Trump:

"The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default." Alan Greenspan

"In the case of United States, default is absolutely impossible. All U.S. government debt is denominated in U.S. dollar assets." Peter Zeihan, Vice President of Analysis for STRATFOR

"In the case of governments boasting monetary sovereignty and debt denominated in its own currency, like the United States (but also Japan and the UK), it is technically impossible to fall into debt default." Erwan Mahe, European asset allocation and options strategies adviser

"There is never a risk of default for a sovereign nation that issues its own free-floating currency and where its debts are denominated in that currency." Mike Norman, Chief Economist for John Thomas Financial

"There is no inherent limit on federal expenses and therefore on federal spending…When the U.S. government decides to spend fiat money, it adds to its banking reserve system and when it taxes or borrows (issues Treasury securities) it drains reserves from its banking system. These reserve operations are done solely to maintain the target Federal Funds rate." Monty Agarwal , managing partner and chief investment officer of MA Managed Futures Fund

"As the sole manufacturer of dollars, whose debt is denominated in dollars, the U.S. government can never become insolvent, i.e., unable to pay its bills. In this sense, the government is not dependent on credit markets to remain operational." Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

"A sovereign government can always make payments as they come due by crediting bank accounts — something recognized by Chairman Ben Bernanke when he said the Fed spends by marking up the size of the reserve accounts of banks." L. Randall Wray, Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri-Kansas City and a Senior Scholar at the Levy Economics Institute
 

Greg NYC3

Member
Oct 26, 2017
12,494
Miami
I was hoping this was fake.

My god, and ppl have faith in this man as our President?
People always hope these things are fake but they're always real LOL

It's like a bad episode of the Outer Limits.
Trump's statement is factually true, though, and holy shit that CNN article is trash. I don't want to defend Trump much but his statement implied literally none of what they're saying it implied.

The statement: "This is the United States government. First of all, you never have to default because you print the money,"

That's true. A fiat monetary system defaulting is the result of something political not technical. We can always pay our debts and we always have been 'printing money.' The explanation of why printing money is a bad idea is sort of true but it's alarmist. Printing more money causes inflation, yes, but we've been doing that for a very long time. Some inflation is good, and it's what we have had. Nothing in Trump's statement says "We should print money past the point where inflation becomes a detriment."

He's not implying we do something like Zimbabwe because we're not fucking Zimbabwe. Inflation is not the same as hyper inflation and the situations of the United States and Zimbabwe aren't even remotely close. The entire economy collapsed in Zimbabwe. They also had foreign currency obligations along with that collapse in production.

Here are some others saying basically the same thing as Trump:
Trump is so inarticulate that he generally fumbles these statements. The basic idea is true though but I think our allies would freak if the USA were to suddenly print 20 trillion dollars in new bills. Oil being traded only in dollars is a big part of what keeps our currency solvent also which is why we practically threaten war anytime the idea is floated to switch oil trading to the Euro.
 
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Shadybiz

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,121

I understand what you're saying, and those are good quotes you produced. And no, we are most definitely NOT Zimbabwe :). However, I have serious doubts that Trump actually understands the nuances of how this all works. Someone very likely just told him this little talking point, and that's what he chose to parrot back without understanding it...because that's what he does.
 

The Llama

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,026
Just got a news alert from the WSJ that the plan is to cut the corporate tax to 20% but leave the top individual tax rate at 39.6%.
 

RDreamer

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,106
Trump is so inarticulate that he generally fumbles these statements. The basic idea is true though but I think our allies would freak if the USA were to suddenly print 20 trillion dollars in new bills. Oil being traded only in dollars is a big part of what keeps our currency solvent also which is why we practically threaten war anytime the idea is floated to switch oil trading to the Euro.

No one is saying that, though. Trump didn't say that. He didn't really fumble that statement at all. It's barely any different from the other quotes.

I just get annoyed that when someone factually describes how our monetary system actually works people jump straight to ridiculous situations that absolutely no one has prescribed. It's really weird. It also shows how much the stupid political rhetoric around the debt has stuck with us despite it being false and most of the people using the rhetoric know it's false.
 

gcubed

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,785
Without the income ranges the plan adds very little detail. Capping mortgage interest deduction at 500k and only allowing property taxes, capped at 10k for federal deductions. But hey, that inheritance exemption moved to 11M and goes unlimited after a few years.

This will surely help the middle class!

This will be a fun ride.
 

Socivol

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,672
There are a few schools of thought on this.

1. "Supply-side economics", the idea that cutting taxes will lead to economic growth, and that the higher GDP will result in a larger tax base, making up for lower rates.
2. "Starve the beast", the idea that cutting taxes leads to eventual spending cuts, even if it causes higher deficits in the short term.
3. Good old-fashioned short-sighted self-interest.

But we know the first 2 don't work, so I guess #3 is the real answer.