[Grubb] I’ve been told big games need to get as close to 10 million copies sold to be successful and that will be easier to do with licensing

T0kenAussie · Feb 7, 2023

Didn't see a thread topic for this but I thought it was interesting

View: https://twitter.com/jeffgrubb/status/1622612529699512320?s=46&t=0VnSZXt5jG-WfHi0-4lVFA

View: https://twitter.com/jeffgrubb/status/1622615722298863617?s=46&t=0VnSZXt5jG-WfHi0-4lVFA

I agree with Grubb. The brinksmanship of it all and the hyoerfixation on asset quality over art styles is making these games become more and more risk averse which is why we see more and more monetisation strategies we don't like

Are games doomed to repeat the same mistakes as cinema movies?

Chaos Legion · Feb 7, 2023

Good for Disney, I guess. Not a big fan of the trend, though.

Terbinator · Feb 7, 2023

Licensed games have a checkered history though if they've not been very good. I would say is far from a shoe in.

Open world Niche-Man came off the back of Marvel-mania (received well, system seller) and even GOTG - a game that was received well - fell below sales expectations, didn't it? Less said about the other recent Marvel games the better.

L Thammy · Feb 7, 2023

I think the indie wing of the industry is going to be much more important going forward.

Rodelero · Feb 7, 2023

What's a 'big game' in this context?
There are AAA games that wouldn't need to get to 10m.
There are AAA games where 10m would be disappointing.

In all honesty I've never even begun to understand the economic basis of the arguments doomers make. This isn't a bubble based on speculation. There is an enormous audience of people playing and spending money on video games. Business will go bust and rise. Trends will appear and disappear. That's about it.

Izanagi89 · Feb 7, 2023

Just another doomer post to add on to the pile 🤷‍♂️ Who knows what will happen in the future but 2023 is a bright spot at least so I'll worry about that if I'm still alive.

Moobabe · Feb 7, 2023

This is an interesting take, but is missing a key piece of information.

Yes, you get additional exposure by using a license, but it can also eat into your revenue pretty significantly.

Cali32 · Feb 7, 2023

With these huge ballooning budgets for AAA games I can see how that would be the case, tbh.

NediarPT88 · Feb 7, 2023

TLOU2 is one of the most impressive games I've played and it turned a profit day 1 (we know it sold 4M copies in the first 3 days).

So I have my doubts about this.

Deleted member 6235 · Feb 7, 2023

AAA's need to end

NediarPT88 said:
TLOU2 is one of the most impressive games I've played and it turned a profit day 1 (we know it sold 4M copies in the first 3 days).

So I have my doubts about this.

The Last of Us Part 2 did not have the 30% tax of a console provider

Rosebud · Feb 7, 2023

It's not working so well for Marvel games though (outside of Spider-Man)

NediarPT88 · Feb 7, 2023

Granjinha said:
The Last of Us Part 2 did not have the 30% tax of a console provider

And I doubt most big games have the same type of budget as TLOU2.

daybreak · Feb 7, 2023

Further showcasing that Nintendo continue to be masters of navigating the industry with a consistent approach.

Their refusal to focus on bleeding edge hardware and graphics has positioned them incredibly well against competition experiencing intense budget creep with ever-increasing development timelines.

Durden · Feb 7, 2023

AA-AAA development has felt like it's had a very foreboding undercurrent of being unsustainable for a while now. We reached the edge of a cliff and I can't tell if we're teetering or already falling.

It really comes off as a a very desperate time for many publishers/devs, which I hate as I enjoy risky, creative ventures and feel for developers that are being pigeon holed. I've lost a lot of interest in AA and especially AAA games these days and I really feel as though this is been a subtle but big reason why, along with my just naturally changing tastes as I've gotten older.

zanna · Feb 7, 2023

NediarPT88 said:
TLOU2 is one of the most impressive games I've played and it turned a profit day 1 (we know it sold 4M copies in the first 3 days).

So I have my doubts about this.

lol

dodmaster · Feb 7, 2023

It's easier to sell garbage with mindshare than garbage without.

zanna · Feb 7, 2023

AAA games are already incredibly safe and boring I can't imagine how much worse things can get as the coin purse tightens

Deleted member 6235 · Feb 7, 2023

NediarPT88 said:
And I doubt most big games have the same type of budget as TLOU2.

okay but i need you to know that between you and me, that roam resetera, and jeff grubb, who has constanly shown that he does has inside info, i trust him.
(and 30% is still a lot of money.)

Dr PeterVenkman · Feb 7, 2023

NediarPT88 said:
TLOU2 is one of the most impressive games I've played and it turned a profit day 1 (we know it sold 4M copies in the first 3 days).

So I have my doubts about this.

other than spiderman, all of sony's big games were new IPs, yes...but it took nearly a decade or in god of wars case, 2 decades to get to that blockbuster sales point. Is horizon up to that 10 million mark?

this all just feels like the games industry just speed running through what the movie industry has gone through.

bitcloudrzr · Feb 7, 2023

T0kenAussie said:
I agree with Grubb. The brinksmanship of it all and the hyoerfixation on asset quality over art styles is making these games become more and more risk averse which is why we see more and more monetisation strategies we don't like

Devs on Era have mentioned that it is not really the asset quality that drives the cost, but the scale of games.

Magic Mushroom · Feb 7, 2023

Dr PeterVenkman said:
other than spiderman, all of sony's big games were new IPS, yes...but it took nearly a decade or in god of wars case, 2 decades to get to that blockbuster sales point. Is horizon up to that 10 million mark?

this all just feels like the games industry just speed running through what the movie industry has gone through.

Horizon is over 20 million.

Ascenion · Feb 7, 2023

I mean I still think AAA gaming is going to crash. Increasing budgets, excessive production time. It just isn't sustainable.

oni-link · Feb 7, 2023

A few have failed of late though haven't they?

Avengers and Midnights Suns don't seem to have done too well

Star Wars does pretty well but also has had some duds (though It will probably improve now it's not stuck with EA)

Do we think the Ubisoft Avatar game will out perform their own Far Cry games etc?

Either way, for someone who likes new IP and established game series' it's def a depressing direction to be going in

Luckily indies and AA should still provide enough cool stuff

Astandahl · Feb 7, 2023

NediarPT88 said:
TLOU2 is one of the most impressive games I've played and it turned a profit day 1 (we know it sold 4M copies in the first 3 days).

So I have my doubts about this.

A lot of studios can keep their budget under control. Uncharted 2 was developed with a budget of 22 M and probably generated a lot of profit despite not being a mega uber ultra hit in terms of pure sales performance.

Tomb Raider 2013 sold more than Uncharted 2 but according to SE underperformed, because the budget behind was way bigger (close to 100 M). Another recent example is Callisto Protocol and Dead Space Remake. It's highly likely that the latter had a much smaller budget, and therefore it will be much easier to reach break even / profit.

Dr PeterVenkman · Feb 7, 2023

Magic Mushroom said:
Horizon is over 20 million.

that's very impressive.

Azn012 · Feb 7, 2023

Nobody is buying a ps5 or series x for AA games or indies. So at least platform holders have a reason to keep doing AAA games.

bitcloudrzr · Feb 7, 2023

oni-link said:
Star Wars does pretty well but also has had some duds (though It will probably improve now it's not stuck with EA)

What duds did it have under EA?

nsilvias · Feb 7, 2023

licensed game hell from the ps2 era bout to return?

CaptainKashup · Feb 7, 2023

bitcloudrzr said:
Devs on Era have mentioned that it is not really the asset quality that drives the cost, but the scale of games.

Yeah, I wish most devs would go back to 8 hours games instead of trying to do this 50 hours boring shit.

Kuro · Feb 7, 2023

I think the context needs to be explained better because I'm guessing that 10 million is for shareholders to be happy in comparison to the revenue that GaaS games bring - not in terms of games making back their budgets + profit.

10 million copies after 70% cut is going to be like half a billion dollars. If game budgets + marketing have reached that point then yes completely unsustainable unless you're Rockstar.

RailWays · Feb 7, 2023

Doesn't seem very sustainable

oni-link · Feb 7, 2023

bitcloudrzr said:
What duds did it have under EA?

Yeah I suppose more critical duds, I don't know if all their Star Wars games were huge sellers

-Le Monde- · Feb 7, 2023

Granjinha said:
AAA's need to end

No thanks. aaa titles are the one pushing the envelope. That's not to say they shouldn't balance it with aa releases.

Vonterribad · Feb 7, 2023

Thank God for gamepass.

Jiraiya · Feb 7, 2023

Unsustainable

I keep hearing that word and doom…. But I'm struggling to imagine what's going to happen beyond is just waiting longer for particular big titles.

Lashley · Feb 7, 2023

Outside of Spidey, were the other Marvel games even big selles?

Ratuso · Feb 7, 2023

Yeah while they might help you reach 10M sales, you also have to pay the license, and I don't think Disney asks for pocket change

NediarPT88 · Feb 7, 2023

zanna said:
lol

Care to elaborate or are you just going to be a troll?

Dr PeterVenkman said:
other than spiderman, all of sony's big games were new IPS, yes...but it took nearly a decade or in god of wars case, 2 decades to get to that blockbuster sales point. Is horizon up to that 10 million mark?

this all just feels like the games industry just speed running through what the movie industry has gone through.

Forbidden West? Shouldn't be there yet.

Budgets are getting bigger and bigger, no question about that. It'st just that 10M is a insane mark that not many games hit.

Sems4arsenal · Feb 7, 2023

I think the 10m is not for turning profit but the floor for game is a success let's greenlight a sequel.

Bulgowski · Feb 7, 2023

I have felt that this was coming for a while. Just looking at this year's "big releases" and a good portion are licensed games - Spiderman, Jedi, Suicide Squad, and others. In all honesty, if this is the direction the AAA video game space is going, I can see it really killing my interest in the medium like it has with blockbuster film.

Yippiekai · Feb 7, 2023

I can see the industry destroying itself slowly by continuing this way.
Throw a shit ton of money to make big bombastic productions that might flop if it's not bought enough, even with multiple millions sold.

Unless publishers understand that they need to scale things back a bit, it wouldn't shock me if some of them either stop completely existing or are acquired in big consolidation moves.

nsilvias · Feb 7, 2023

Azn012 said:
Nobody is buying a ps5 or series x for AA games or indies. So at least platform holders have a reason to keep doing AAA games.

if all consoles had were aaa they wouldnt sell half as well as they did lol. the smaller games are what diversify your systems enough to pull from all audiences

Deleted member 6235 · Feb 7, 2023

-Le Monde- said:
No thanks. aaa titles are the one pushing the envelope. That's not to say they shouldn't balance it with aa releases.

looking for what envelope they are pushing. can't really find it.

Fatoy · Feb 7, 2023

Videogames have been through the licensing cycle before (the SNES / Megadrive era was crammed to bursting with licensed games) and it'll go through it again.

BRVR · Feb 7, 2023

And then you have Ragnarok doing 11 million within 3 months........yeah cool.

BassForever · Feb 7, 2023

How many big budget licensed games have done that well historically? From my memory for every Spiderman PS4 there's like 5 Avengers (big budget licensed game that flops) or Garfield Karts (low budget licensed game that does well enough to fund more low budget games). This seems like a super weird hill to die on for the AAA industry. Even if you look at recent successes of things like Jedi Fallen Order or The game that shall not be Named, both of those IPs have had plenty of games that have under performed over the years. Heck as something like GotG shows, having a hot IP that gets favorable reviews isn't a guarantee of sales success.

Hoodie Season · Feb 7, 2023

If all I played for the rest of my life were games like Hi-Fi Rush, I would die a super happy human being. I think my playthrough clocked in around 11 hours, so not really that long of a game. And it's honestly one of my favorite games of all time.

WhtR88t · Feb 7, 2023

Start making more focused, 8-10 hour AAA games.

Not everything needs to be a 40 hour, open world, AAA.

J 0 E · Feb 7, 2023

Out of curiosity, has a game ever sold 10 million and still not covered and recouped its budget/investment?

Bait02 · Feb 7, 2023

daybreak said:
Further showcasing that Nintendo continue to be masters of navigating the industry with a consistent approach.

Their refusal to focus on bleeding edge hardware and graphics has positioned them incredibly well against competition experiencing intense budget creep with ever-increasing development timelines.

While in theory I agree, Nintendo's true testing ground will be the Switch successor. A part for excellent launch window titles, Nintendo has relied a lot on their WiiU backlog library, remasters and Pokemon semi-annual releases in the last years. Imo they will have to step up their input if they want maintain their current momentum in the long run. And product costs will rise even for them (although probably to a smaller extent).

[Grubb] I’ve been told big games need to get as close to 10 million copies sold to be successful and that will be easier to do with licensing

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