Yup, these are the bundles that'll do it. Along with the current library alongside upcoming games.Very confident!
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How confident are you that Nintendo will reach their 20 million target for Switch this year?
- Thread starter Mysterio79
- Start date
Well, what games like diablo, civ 6, legacy of heroes, warframe, etc do is that they significantly diversity the library of the system beyond the typical first party offerings, thus increasing the potential consumer base.
Probably wont see the impact but i can tell you there os a lot of excitement from fans of these games to see the ports.
Minecraft Bundle would be another big one but I think Microsoft want Xbox One S to be the exclusive system that has a Minecraft bundle.
How is everyone expectation going? still sticking to your "bet" up to this point or changing your mind?
The crazies who said smash isn't a system seller will just say Switch sales are up because it's December.
The funniest thing I read was someone suggesting people who buy Smash already have Switch. I mean, this argument could be thrown around for everything "people who want Spider-Man already have PS4" lol
Sticking to falling short yeah, Japan is not ramping up as much as it needed. US will probably make it close though, 18-19M. That is, unless they have some zinger releasing in Q1.
My original bet was that they'd just barely miss. I think I'm holding.
Sticking to falling short. I guessed that Smash and Pokemon would kill it, but 2 major games isn't enough a year to hit 20m.
I wouldn't say I'm surprised by that. I assumed smash would move more HW and SW than Pokémon but the question is will it be enough?
I originally said 19-20 million so I'll stick with that. I think they'll come close whether they go over or under. In 2019 they'll easily have the biggest year of any console this gen.
Japan is actually ramping up a ton as early reports are saying
What I think is most interesting is how seemingly all the focus is on the HW side. If anything the SW and revenue targets are far more interesting. IMO the switch will destroy its SW target and most likely the same with the revenue/profit forecasts.
To me that's more important than whether or not it falls a million either way of the HW forecast (either way it's on a good trajectory). What that shows is that Nintendo has found a way to have a handheld console that not only has a similar attach rate to home consoles but is also priced he same. The switch will end up being Nintendo's most successful console when all is said and done.
To me that's more important than whether or not it falls a million either way of the HW forecast (either way it's on a good trajectory). What that shows is that Nintendo has found a way to have a handheld console that not only has a similar attach rate to home consoles but is also priced he same. The switch will end up being Nintendo's most successful console when all is said and done.
Right now it's almost a slam dunk to miss the forecast by at least a million. Probably tracking right around 2-3 million off
Exactly what I expect. Switch shipping "only" 18-19 million -> "Switch momentum is gone", "just the fans bought it and now it's done" whatever. I expect lots of food for my ignore list...
There is no way the Switch is tracking for 17m units this fiscal year.
If a Pro is coming next year, I think they will save the MP4 footage for the Pro announcement - I think there is a high correlation between the pro's target market and MP4, MP4 might be its mascot game same as BOTW was for the Switch. Then again MP4 might just be very far from ready, so far they prefer not to show it at this stage.
As to NSMBU, I'm on opposite side, I have this feeling that it would have far less impact than some people think. Not the same obviously, but I got similar vibes when people said "wait for Wii Sports to appear on WiiU". I think its time is up, the specific product is outdated. But I could be very much mistaken, and certainly hope so.
Yep lol. And certain analysts will catatrophise the whole thing, whilst the stock price drops. Despite one of the best second years for a home console
Me too, also underlining how selling 19 millions is a great result too
The last 2 poll options are kind of the same aren't they? Unless the third option means it will sell exactly 20 million units!
I mean it's absolutely tracking for 17 million. As of right now it's less crazy to predict 17 million than 20 million. Anything that would indicate it's going to be well past that number that hasn't been realized yet. The entire year it's been basically flat from last year.
I´m sticking with my 17-18millions prediction. A solid number, but still falling 10-15% short from their target, and it won´t be a good look for the shareholders. Missing by two digits is NOT "barely missing". Anything above 19 millions would be surprising to me, but an excellent news for Nintendo indeed.
Not if you listen to any data we have received from insiders and reliable sources since Pokemon release.
Oh you're right, this is going to move some consoles for sure, NSMBWii did great numbers back then. Still hoping for something maybe a bit more "hardcore" oriented in Feb but we'll see.
It's less crazy to believe that a major corporation is that far off their official forecast? Nintendo has both last quarters said that the sales are as expected and have seen no reason to revise their forecast. All sales sources worldwide point to Switch selling real well so far in Q3. Predicting likelihood of hitting or missing the forecast until Q3 sales figure in general is real silly.
Actual data from Japan shows no increase over last year from Pokémon's release. Hopefully smash brothers can turn that around in that market.
We don't have US numbers yet and just being up isn't enough to make goal. It needs to be up 33% as just a baseline which
is no small feat. Then it needs to make up for the previous 7 months.
Generic "it's up" posts and it's doing really well doesn't mean it's going to hit goal.
The recently posted UK data is much more promising on the other hand. If it can be up 50% in November and December across Europe and the United States that might make it close to goal.
No it absolutely is not. To be tracking for 17m units that would indicated that between Q3 and Q4 Nintendo will only manage 2m more systems than last fiscal year. There is 0 evidence the current pace suggests that.
Naw. 17m is impossible. 20m is a lofty goal but with a big Q3 and Q4 its doable.
Being flat Q1 and Q2 doesnt mean that they are tracking to 17m.
In the US it was up 115% on Black Friday week YOY. It was probably up a similar amount the whole month, I'd guess somewhere between 85-100%.
Almost everything we're hearing in terms of sales info is exactly what we should be hearing for them to be tracking close to 20M. Everything but Japan, and that's going to start this Wednesday.
Exactly, no one ever doubted that they would have great sales during the holidays; but the fact that the console is tracking YoY at the same level as a heavily supply constrained first year means that they did lose momentum, and it has a very steep uphill climb if they want to reach 20 millions. With this year´s lineup, I do not think that Smash and Pokemon only will be enough to push the hardware past 18 millions.
Only in Japan.
In the rest of the world it's tracking heavily up. Anywhere from ~50-115% up.
Japan is the outlier here, and it's likely not going to be once we get this past week's numbers.
I did not know that, I assumed that the sales were more or less flat as compared to last year in the US and in Europe; at least, that´s what I remembered from their last financial report where they needed to sell something like 15 millions from October to March. My bad if I was wrong.