• Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.

Will Switch reach Nintendo's project 20 million this fiscal year

  • Not even close

  • It will fall short of 20 million

  • It will meet forecast expectation

  • It will surpass 20 million and yearly sales of any platform over the last generation (PS4 20M 2016)


Results are only viewable after voting.

fourfourfun

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,677
England
I see great utility in watching something on netflix or browsing the web then docking your switch to throw it up on the big screen.

Really? I don't. I just put the Switch down and move to either the actual dedicated App plugged into my TV. Extra bonus: you don't have your Switch hogged away from people if you want to watch TV.

It is, at best, a mediocre want on a wants list. When you look for a games console, you're not looking at how much TV you can play on it. This isn't the early days in consoles when connected appliances were few and far between.
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Thank you. I'm sure you're one of ones who is 100% happy with your switch where I am not. My post wasn't just some bullshit I threw together its where I'd like to see the switch go. If thats so stupid then so be it.

It's not stupid, it's just not terribly meaningful in the context of a sales discussion. Yes it would be wonderful if game prices came down and they released Netflix and other apps but those things are not going to make a big difference when it comes to sales of the product, which is what this thread is about.
 

fourfourfun

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,677
England
I see great utility in watching something on netflix or browsing the web then docking your switch to throw it up on the big screen.

Really? I don't. I just put the Switch down and move to either the actual dedicated App plugged into my TV. Extra bonus: you don't have your Switch hogged away from people if you want to watch TV.

It is, at best, a mediocre want on a wants list. When you look for a games console, you're not looking at how much TV you can play on it. This isn't the early days in consoles when connected appliances were few and far between.

And this transpires to web browsers too. If I've got a game on the go, do I want to swap to a web browser? No! I just pull my phone out of my pocket. Again, I can use the browser while a game is running.
 

Guaraná

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,987
brazil, unfortunately
That number is insane. PC is more accessible than ever and everyone already owns either a PS4 or Xbox. Portability and exclusives are not enough to push people to spend $300 along with games that never see adequate price drops.

Switch needs to drop in price next holiday. Games need to drop in price in line with other platforms.

More developers need to use switch as a baseline for development and scale up to PS4/Xbox/PC. Cloud versions won't far well I don't need to be the one to tell you that!

They need more apps. Youtube and Hulu are all you'll find.

If they can pull that off they'll be in good shape.

wtf did I just read ¬¬
 

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,664
WA, australia
....I'm enjoying this thread very much

Regarding NSMBU, I´m still not convinced that releasing it instead on something else was a good idea. Back reading the forum a year ago, it seems that most people (including you if I recall) were not really thrilled at the idea of a NSMBU port. I know that it was hugely popular on WiiU, but I somehow see it as the one port that will under perform on Switch. I hope for Yoshi to come out early March.
This is a very reasonable point imo but I still think you underestimate the game (even though I do think most of the informed people here are slightly overestimating it). It'll do a healthy >6-7 million eventually imo, which isnt terrific compared to the original, but still places it as a strong system seller for early 2019. Could notably be higher or lower tho.

I was actually just speaking to a friend who is extremely hyped for NSMBUDX. I told him it was a port of the Wii u game from a while back and he was shocked, he genuinely thought it was a brand new switch game. My gut feeling is a lot of the gp is so unaware of Wii u that they won't even realise it's a port
 

Deleted member 3017

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
17,653
....I'm enjoying this thread very much


This is a very reasonable point imo but I still think you underestimate the game (even though I do think most of the informed people here are slightly overestimating it). It'll do a healthy >6-7 million eventually imo, which isnt terrific compared to the original, but still places it as a strong system seller for early 2019. Could notably be higher or lower tho.

I was actually just speaking to a friend who is extremely hyped for NSMBUDX. I told him it was a port of the Wii u game from a while back and he was shocked, he genuinely thought it was a brand new switch game. My gut feeling is a lot of the gp is so unaware of Wii u that they won't even realise it's a port

There's zero doubt in my mind that the general public has no idea New Super Mario Bros. U ever existed.
 

nocdaes

Member
Dec 6, 2018
933
UK
Well, it's a global figure so the UK market will only have a very limited impact... but, this is probably true of other markets too. I am still really surprised that retail didn't throw their weight behind the Switch + Pokemon Let's Go around Black Friday and now into Christmas trading with a £250 deal. I'd expect the Switch to fly off the shelves even faster at that price point, and then we possibly could have got closer to the 20 million.... As it stands, I think they will fall just short... landing around 19m. Still an astonishing effort, mind!

I fully expect there to be a meaty January Direct, but I can't see any significant title(s) coming before the end of March.

That said, I do 100% agree with the consensus that New Super Mario Bros U Deluxe could make a significant impact... but, it's January. If Nintendo had managed to sneak that out the door in October, then it would have had a bigger impact in my opinion. Unless retail do something in January sales, of course, but I don't think they will... that's typically a time to shift slow moving stock (Fallout 76 and Hitman 2 will feature heavily..!!) and not your cash cows of which Switch is clearly one.
 

kjtc1979

Member
Nov 27, 2017
326
I still think that if 20 million is looking iffy after the holidays, we get either a small price cut or a permanent bundle. There are so many arrows in their quiver that haven't been touched yet.
 
Last edited:

Wiifitkid

Member
Mar 12, 2018
340
I didn't have a Wii U so I welcome every single port of its games.
but I know its very frustrating for those who had the console to deal with these kinda of think.
As long as ports can be relatively low effort (unless they are making deluxe versions) I see no problem with it.

I would loveto see wonderful 101 and the fire emblem game get some success.
I hope they all get ported from Paper Mario to Fatal Frame.

1) this means I'm more likely to have people IRL to talk about my love of the game with
2) it makes sequels and othe off the wall collabs more likely in the future
 

Pooroomoo

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,972
I didn't have a Wii U so I welcome every single port of its games.
but I know its very frustrating for those who had the console to deal with these kinda of think.
No it isn't, it's frustrating for some of those that owned a WiiU. There are many WIiU owners that couldn't care less or even welcome these ports (among them me).
 

Instro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,001
by that logic everything is a barrier for new costumers. all games should be free and consoles be based on a rental model.

To be fair, we are not far off from having that model. I mean, the success of stuff like game pass indicates a willingness for subscription based software delivery, the next step could undoubtedly be subscription based hardware, which we know is something that has been kicked around before.

That's an aside though, I don't think it's particularly eye opening to say that higher software prices are a bigger barrier than lower software prices. I think the PC digital market has proved what lowering prices and digital sales can do for adoption, visibility, and growth of the market segment.
 

Alandring

Banned
Feb 2, 2018
1,841
Switzerland
But, it has been an amazing system seller. How many units would have been sold in that same period without Let's Go, but with NSMUDX in its place? Look at PS4 sales there at the same time?
For the PlayStation 4, we can compare with the launch of Monster Hunter World in January.

Week 1 : hardware sales were up by 218% YOY (+100% for Switch).
Week 2 : hardware sales were up by 204% YOY (-15% for Switch).
Week 3 : hardware sales were up by 126% YOY (-28% for Switch).

Of course, sales would have been even worse without Let's Go, but this isn't the subject. Nintendo wants to ship 5M more Switch this fiscal year than last fiscal year. They will do better than last FY, because they did better than I expected during Q1&Q2 and because Smash is huge, but they won't ship 20M units because Nintendo Labo bombed, Pokémon Let's Go wasn't as big as some people here thought and Smash launched to late.

And, maybe it's not best to use the market which is in decline as a test for the rest of the world.
I use Japan because it's the only market where we have numbers available now. For UK, we just have numbers for the Black Friday week. For US, we just have some tweets without anything concrete (NPD report will be really interesting, but it isn't available now) and for other contries, I think we have nothing.

And Japan was a reliable indicator for last FY, Q1 and Q2. Obviously, the reception of a game can be different between Japan and the West, but I doubt hardware sales will be really different for Q3 in different markets. If hardware sales are only slighty better in Japan, I think they will be only slighty better in US/EU.
 

Instro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,001
I have no problem with WiiU ports, but I think they get a bad wrap with a lot of owners because they end up padding an unhealthy lineup. If they were just being released on top of a great lineup of new games I don't think anyone would have any issues.
 

Dynheart

Self-requested ban
Member
Oct 31, 2017
658
I'm fine with Wii U ports. I like to replay games I enjoy, and if I can take those on the go, great. So give me more ports (good games, please). I also like new games as well, which I am getting plenty of. Switch is a great console IMO, and I think the sales performance shows: people are voting with their wallet.
 

ScoutDave

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,296
As a WiiU owner, i say "fuck it!" port everything! As long as its a quality port i dont mind. And there are more than a few titles id gladly double dip on if i havent already.
 

Deleted member 50374

alt account
Banned
Dec 4, 2018
2,482
Nintendo can eventually do some sales during winter at any point and cover the last hundreds of thousands. Switch is doing so good even being the most expensive one and the one with the "alternative" lineup of games, they have a lot of potential.

PC is no alternative to it btw. I can stream it around in my house but I won't bring a desktop replacement outside and my ultrabook isn't really a powerhouse. Plus, I can game on the couch at my parents' with the Switch.
 

Dr. Mario

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,822
Netherlands
I personally doubt whether the port of a game that failed to sell Wii Us will sell many Switches. NsmbWii was a nice nostalgia hit for many lapsed gamers. Now they've had their fill, if this group still wants more they can already be thoroughly disappointed by Mario Run for a lot cheaper. It will probably do better than Bayonetta port sure, and riding the wave from Smash might be enough for Q4's target, but that still leaves the Q3 one.
 
Oct 26, 2017
9,827
I personally doubt whether the port of a game that failed to sell Wii Us will sell many Switches. NsmbWii was a nice nostalgia hit for many lapsed gamers. Now they've had their fill, if this group still wants more they can already be thoroughly disappointed by Mario Run for a lot cheaper. It will probably do better than Bayonetta port sure, and riding the wave from Smash might be enough for Q4's target, but that still leaves the Q3 one.
The Wii U was unsellable. Nothing was able to help it sell. Not Mario, Smash, Mario Kart, or anything else. New Super Mario Bros U by default will be more of a seller for the Switch, just like Mario Kart 8 and Zelda before it
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
I personally doubt whether the port of a game that failed to sell Wii Us will sell many Switches. NsmbWii was a nice nostalgia hit for many lapsed gamers. Now they've had their fill, if this group still wants more they can already be thoroughly disappointed by Mario Run for a lot cheaper. It will probably do better than Bayonetta port sure, and riding the wave from Smash might be enough for Q4's target, but that still leaves the Q3 one.
You mean Mario Kart 8 Deluxe?
 

Titik

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,490
I personally doubt whether the port of a game that failed to sell Wii Us will sell many Switches. NsmbWii was a nice nostalgia hit for many lapsed gamers. Now they've had their fill, if this group still wants more they can already be thoroughly disappointed by Mario Run for a lot cheaper. It will probably do better than Bayonetta port sure, and riding the wave from Smash might be enough for Q4's target, but that still leaves the Q3 one.
NSMB outsells the 3D Marios considerably.
 

Slam Tilt

Member
Jan 16, 2018
5,585
How is everyone expectation going? still sticking to your "bet" up to this point or changing your mind?
I've been Team "Surpasses 20 million easily" since day 1, and I ain't budging.

Nintendo always lowballs their estimates, and if they were claiming 20 million that means they were internally projecting even more.

The SIFTD guys have predicted that Switch will only sell 10 million this FY, with around 3 million units sold this entire Holiday. Wow.
That's still 2 million more than Michael Pachter!
 

Instro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,001
I've been Team "Surpasses 20 million easily" since day 1, and I ain't budging.

Nintendo always lowballs their estimates, and if they were claiming 20 million that means they were internally projecting even more.

Probably true, although they also did so under the assumption that Yoshi+FE would make it this year, and I'm sure they thought Labo was going to be a success as well.
 

requiem

Member
Dec 3, 2017
1,448
Probably true, although they also did so under the assumption that Yoshi+FE would make it this year, and I'm sure they thought Labo was going to be a success as well.
I think Yoshi is a lock for March, and I'm really hoping FE just scrapes it into this FY. I agree that the numbers probably reflected Labo being a success, although the fact that they haven't revised them at all means they must still feel they're on track to hit them.
 

Instro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,001
I think Yoshi is a lock for March, and I'm really hoping FE just scrapes it into this FY. I agree that the numbers probably reflected Labo being a success, although the fact that they haven't revised them at all means they must still feel they're on track to hit them.

For what it's worth, and maybe someone can correct me, I think when Nintendo has revised numbers down in the past, they've done so after Q3.
 

Boiled Goose

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
9,999
I personally doubt whether the port of a game that failed to sell Wii Us will sell many Switches. NsmbWii was a nice nostalgia hit for many lapsed gamers. Now they've had their fill, if this group still wants more they can already be thoroughly disappointed by Mario Run for a lot cheaper. It will probably do better than Bayonetta port sure, and riding the wave from Smash might be enough for Q4's target, but that still leaves the Q3 one.

You underestimate fundamental the unappeal of the WiiU.
 

LegendofLex

Member
Nov 20, 2017
5,457
I personally doubt whether the port of a game that failed to sell Wii Us will sell many Switches. NsmbWii was a nice nostalgia hit for many lapsed gamers. Now they've had their fill, if this group still wants more they can already be thoroughly disappointed by Mario Run for a lot cheaper. It will probably do better than Bayonetta port sure, and riding the wave from Smash might be enough for Q4's target, but that still leaves the Q3 one.
MK8 Deluxe is the second best-selling game on Switch, and it continues to sell much better than the other big Switch games from last year.

That means MK8 Deluxe is selling with new systems.
 

LordByron28

Member
Nov 5, 2017
2,348
I personally doubt whether the port of a game that failed to sell Wii Us will sell many Switches. NsmbWii was a nice nostalgia hit for many lapsed gamers. Now they've had their fill, if this group still wants more they can already be thoroughly disappointed by Mario Run for a lot cheaper. It will probably do better than Bayonetta port sure, and riding the wave from Smash might be enough for Q4's target, but that still leaves the Q3 one.
NSMB series seems to behave similarly to the Mario Kart series. NSMBU DX more than likely isnt going to sell a ton of people on Switches. However, it could become one of those games like Mario Kart and NSMB's previous entries, in that you pick it up when purchasing a Nintendo system. I could see its performance being similar to MK8D depending on how well Nintendo markets it.
 

Papacheeks

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
5,620
Watertown, NY
WiiU ports would not be annoying if they were released alongside a healthy lineup of original content. It wasn't the case in 2018.

^ This.

Also wouldn't hurt to price these ports accordingly. Paying $60 for 4 year old ports like Tropical freeze, Bayonetta 2 is a hard pill to swallow. Especially since some them they are straight ports without added content. If they have added content it's not something that makes it seem worth the hefty price tag when compared to other ports's, remasters/remakes.
 

Dark Cloud

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
61,087
^ This.

Also wouldn't hurt to price these ports accordingly. Paying $60 for 4 year old ports like Tropical freeze, Bayonetta 2 is a hard pill to swallow. Especially since some them they are straight ports without added content. If they have added content it's not something that makes it seem worth the hefty price tag when compared to other ports's, remasters/remakes.

I can agree it'd be nice if they added more, but as they see them outselling their Wii U counterparts it can show them they don't have to add much.
 

corasaur

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,988
I personally doubt whether the port of a game that failed to sell Wii Us will sell many Switches. NsmbWii was a nice nostalgia hit for many lapsed gamers. Now they've had their fill, if this group still wants more they can already be thoroughly disappointed by Mario Run for a lot cheaper. It will probably do better than Bayonetta port sure, and riding the wave from Smash might be enough for Q4's target, but that still leaves the Q3 one.
At the bare minimum it's a 10x better system seller than anything that came out in a comparable time frame for switch q1 2018 so the system should be up for the quarter YoY
 

Watchtower

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,631
Did the poll change while I wasn't looking? Could've sworn it was skewing towards "fall short" before, unless I'm confusing it with another thread.
 

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,664
WA, australia
Did the poll change while I wasn't looking? Could've sworn it was skewing towards "fall short" before, unless I'm confusing it with another thread.
Yeah, my recollection is that it leaned that way pretty heavily (and, full disclosure, I helped it lean that way). Be interesting to have a breakdown of responses over time.
This is the May thread, made when people were much more optimistic. There was another thread by Phantom in September that still hasn't the poll results you are remembering.
 

Mbolibombo

Member
Oct 29, 2017
7,043
^ This.

Also wouldn't hurt to price these ports accordingly. Paying $60 for 4 year old ports like Tropical freeze, Bayonetta 2 is a hard pill to swallow. Especially since some them they are straight ports without added content. If they have added content it's not something that makes it seem worth the hefty price tag when compared to other ports's, remasters/remakes.

I dont necessarily thinks the lack of new content was the big issue - There was 8 first party releases and also Octopath as an exclusive but rather the pacing of it. The first half of the year was very very slow and all the good stuff came in the second half pretty much.

Kirby and Labo as your only brand new games for the first 5 months of the year was not the best idea. I do agree with the ports though.. at 40$ for the full priced games and maybe 30$ for Toadthat would make it a nice deal.
 

Glio

Member
Oct 27, 2017
24,495
Spain
Do you remember when people doubted that Smash moved hardware because all the Nintendo fans already had the Switch?

good times