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How confident are you that Nintendo will reach their 20 million target for Switch this year?
- Thread starter Mysterio79
- Start date
Some people just gotta play the refs. But like a bad burrito, I'm back. ;-)
Glad you're back! I couldn't figure out what post it was that got you disappeared, which always freaks me out a little. :)
Okay.
New news in, Smash Ultimate is the fastest selling Nintendo game in Europe ever. While in the US, Smash sold 3 million in 11 days.
Where does everybody's predictions stand? Anyone willing to change their prediction?
New news in, Smash Ultimate is the fastest selling Nintendo game in Europe ever. While in the US, Smash sold 3 million in 11 days.
Where does everybody's predictions stand? Anyone willing to change their prediction?
Still 18 millions. It was always going to do amazing at the end of the year. If I didnt beliéve it would, I would have predicted 12 millions.
I still think it could be a very near miss, but I frankly wouldn't be surprised if they pulled it off.
So from the looks of it they will sell about 10-11 million from March 2018 to December 2018.
I really don't see 9-10 million being sold from January 2019-March 2019, especially with no major game in that timeframe and most people cool off on spending after Christmas.
I really don't see 9-10 million being sold from January 2019-March 2019, especially with no major game in that timeframe and most people cool off on spending after Christmas.
That's a good prediction, but I wonder how much Nintendo could channel stuff if they are say 1-2 mil short. Worldwide could they channel stuff 1-2m at the end of the quarter to get it to 20m? Maybe that is a stretch; I'm not sure.
Wait, where are you getting that from? March 2018- December 2018 will be way higher than 10-11 million, like 16-17 million.
Where are you getting those estimates? It's likely that it will sell 10-11M between October and December alone, on top of the 5M it sold between March and September.
Last year's Q3 was ~7.4M IIRC, you expect it to be down 1-2M this year?
Stuffing can work if they are close, like half a million short. But if they ship an extra 2 millions (10% of their yearly prediction!), they will gimp their results for the following year.
I think Nintendo is gonna play it fair and we'll have a good idea by how much they missed (or beat) their target. If they miss by significant margin (10% or more), they can always use the fact that software sales are higher than predicted to ease the burn on their shareholders.
Q4 will really decide what happens...
Yeah, that's true about them hurting themselves for the next fiscal year if they channel stuff. Guess they'll have to do it the old fashioned way!
They will likely need a big first quarter release to hit their target. A title that will be a big system seller. The only one I can think of is Animal Crossing, but I have no idea if that could possibly release in the next few months. Fire Emblem isn't gonna be a huge system seller, nor will Yoshi. NSMBU will move some consoles as Mario games always do, but that isn't enough
Im starting to think it will not be that hard to hit the target. They might even exceed it with a million.
It all depends on december and a 2.5 million Switch US december will make it happen. With Smash selling record numbers I can see them do that easily and Japan is doing very well too so I think they will be able to ship 5 million in the Americas, 2.5 million Asia and 4.5 million rest of the world in Q3 and I believe they will ship 4 million in Q4 because of Smash, Pokemon and Mario Deluxe momentum (and whatever february, march game they have planned).
It all depends on december and a 2.5 million Switch US december will make it happen. With Smash selling record numbers I can see them do that easily and Japan is doing very well too so I think they will be able to ship 5 million in the Americas, 2.5 million Asia and 4.5 million rest of the world in Q3 and I believe they will ship 4 million in Q4 because of Smash, Pokemon and Mario Deluxe momentum (and whatever february, march game they have planned).
Yeah, the new model could help them with channel stuffing. Still, I think stuffing of .5 to 1 million is possible, 2 to 3 million would really be pushing it.
lol, the more it seems like they'll hit the number the more the channel stuffing narrative takes hold
Yes, it will. With the strong line-up, but they should offer more for the people that skipped the WiiU and even Wii. Port the bigger games to keep us waiting the new ones (i'm looking at you, Zelda and Galaxy games).
Or even better, just make everything avaliable in the Virtual Console, takes less work and it would print money. Makes me scratch my head that there is radio silence on this matter.
Or even better, just make everything avaliable in the Virtual Console, takes less work and it would print money. Makes me scratch my head that there is radio silence on this matter.
For me, the big unknown is the performances of NSMBU, and how it can drive hardware sales. I believe that it will sell well though not with the stellar performances from some previous WiiU ports. While a game like DK:TF was an underachiever on WiiU, it finally sold to the level it deserved (still lower than what it deserves in my view actually) on Switch.
NSMBU on the other hand performed very well on WiiU, but I have a gut feeling that it won't pull the same kind of hype when releasing on Switch. Make no mistake, it will probably do very well all things considered (more than DKTF in absolute numbers of course), but I do not see it as a software to drive hardware sales.
If Nintendo has something else in Q1, may it be a big surprise (doubtful) or many solid smaller games which would raise the Switch's baseline, then they may actually pull the 20 millions. But we currently have no clue for any of this so to me, the reasonable assumption is that they will miss the target.
so, are you saying October to December will only sell 6M units WW? less than last year?
PFFFF
Like I said earlier, "channel stuffing" is the new "artificial scarcity". Y'all always have some conspiracy theory to explain Nintendo's success it just depends on the stock levels to determine which one you go with.
(it's obviously possible Nintendo may do some channel stuffing at the end of the fiscal year, but it's not going to be anything significant)
(it's obviously possible Nintendo may do some channel stuffing at the end of the fiscal year, but it's not going to be anything significant)
If Nintendo doesn't sell the exact same amount of consoles they ship while magically ensuring that shelves remain fully stocked and scalpers get punished by life in prison then they are an evil corporation who does nothing but anti-consumer and anti-shareholder practices.
people talk as if channel stuffing were the most normal shit to do. when (IIRC) is not exactly illegal, it can back fired bad and can sued for deception or market manipulation
/--/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/
If the "eat crows" were a literal action for being wrong, Im sure most "video games analyst" will be responsible for the extinction of the species
/--/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/-/
If the "eat crows" were a literal action for being wrong, Im sure most "video games analyst" will be responsible for the extinction of the species
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I mean, I am presonally skipping it. But for a lot of people New Super Mario U DX is a major game. I'm not saying it will necessarily push hardware but I think it will sell a ton.
Not going to lie, I just did a pretty big buy on NTDOY today. I think this is an easy win for me at the current stock price. Not sure how these analysts are misreading the situation this badly.
I hate doing this kind of comparison but, when 4 years ago PS4 (or currently) broke a record. everyone was foaming tru the mouth as if they have seen god.
Nintendo/ Switch breaks any record and you see mostly (SPECIALLY from analyst) reactions akin to when people loses a bet but cant outright say they were betting against, so
Even if, for some reason, Nintendo doesn't quite hit their hardware forecast. I think they are going to crush their software, revenue, and profit forecasts. They have extra money coming in from Amiibo, online subscriptions, and higher margin eShop sales (they mentioned the US eShop is up over 100% yoy). They should have another extremely bullish forecast for next year too.I hate doing this kind of comparison but, when 4 years ago PS4 (or currently) broke a record. everyone was foaming tru the mouth as if they have seen god.
Nintendo/ Switch breaks any record and you see mostly (SPECIALLY from analyst) reactions akin to when people loses a bet but cant outright say they were betting against, so
The way I see it, this is a case of Nintendo (the parent) thinking their kid is going to be a certain type of kid, and then being a bit surprised that the kid is showing talent in a different area.
So Nintendo thought the Switch was going to be a football player like their older brother the Wii was (a break out casual hit platform). But it turns out the kid is really good at basketball (it's more like a traditional platform than a DS/Wii) instead. And there's nothing wrong with that, it's just not exactly what the parent may have planned for.
I think Nintendo thought a year ago "well this could be the next Wii, we'll put out Labo and Pokemon Lets Go for the smartphone crowd and surely our sales will explode!". That's where the 20 million forecast stems from. Well Switch is still seeing tremendous success, but just perhaps in a different way from what Nintendo may have anticipated.
And that's fine, that's great. Even Sony I thought made one of the most honest assertions with the PS4's early days in saying that they really couldn't explain why it was selling as high as it was, they didn't expect that. Platform holders can set a forecast for a platform, but often times the platform grows in its own, organic way which surprises even the company.
The key for the Switch is to not rely on the "big shot casual experimental platform" but to have a steadier release schedule and really focus on "event" Nintendo releases (once or twice a year) that really energize what is an older buyer-base. Keep them happy and you are in business. In other words the kid needs basketball camp, not football pads.
So Nintendo thought the Switch was going to be a football player like their older brother the Wii was (a break out casual hit platform). But it turns out the kid is really good at basketball (it's more like a traditional platform than a DS/Wii) instead. And there's nothing wrong with that, it's just not exactly what the parent may have planned for.
I think Nintendo thought a year ago "well this could be the next Wii, we'll put out Labo and Pokemon Lets Go for the smartphone crowd and surely our sales will explode!". That's where the 20 million forecast stems from. Well Switch is still seeing tremendous success, but just perhaps in a different way from what Nintendo may have anticipated.
And that's fine, that's great. Even Sony I thought made one of the most honest assertions with the PS4's early days in saying that they really couldn't explain why it was selling as high as it was, they didn't expect that. Platform holders can set a forecast for a platform, but often times the platform grows in its own, organic way which surprises even the company.
The key for the Switch is to not rely on the "big shot casual experimental platform" but to have a steadier release schedule and really focus on "event" Nintendo releases (once or twice a year) that really energize what is an older buyer-base. Keep them happy and you are in business. In other words the kid needs basketball camp, not football pads.
I'm pretty sure I've asked you this before with no response but what exactly will you say if they hit their 20 million forecast which is entirely possible right now? How can you say they 'totally fucked expectations" when they might be right on the money.
That's with Labo flipping and with multiple delays for games they wouldn't have expected.
Also is the share price dropping due to this one issue or could it be that there is more at play?
I'm not going to change my vote, but I'm beginning to think I might be wrong. I thought they would fail but end up very close.
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I hate doing this kind of comparison but, when 4 years ago PS4 (or currently) broke a record. everyone was foaming tru the mouth as if they have seen god.
Nintendo/ Switch breaks any record and you see mostly (SPECIALLY from analyst) reactions akin to when people loses a bet but cant outright say they were betting against, so
My guess has always been that analysts see Sony as primarily a hardware maker, while Nintendo a software publisher that should go mobile. Anytime Nintendo deviates from that initial expectation, it's "doing business wrong" in their eyes.
Remember that Pachter went out of his way to let everyone know that he hated Iwata as a businessman on the day of Iwata's death (despite the fact that Iwata was CEO for Wii, DS, 3DS, etc.) I'm sure several other analysts viewed him the same but aren't as open to the public about it.
I hate doing this kind of comparison but, when 4 years ago PS4 (or currently) broke a record. everyone was foaming tru the mouth as if they have seen god.
Nintendo/ Switch breaks any record and you see mostly (SPECIALLY from analyst) reactions akin to when people loses a bet but cant outright say they were betting against, so
I think it's because the PS4 is still outselling it despite being in its 5th year, whilst the Switch is still fairly new, and also because Nintendo is already slightly outlier versus the other two in terms of comparisons, due to release time frame, hardware, feature emphasis, multiplatform tent pole release and other differences etc. Whilst all the consoles are compared, sometimes it does feel as though the Switch is almost in its own unique lane.
Because it seemed like a ridiculous forecast at the time.
Turns out it wasn't, even if Nintendo misses it by a million or two.
how many times do we need to have this arguments explained?
A company 1st and 2nd year are Never their best years.
also, reading comprehension, 4 years ago when PS4 was new too, every time they broke a record or something, everyone praised it as the second coming of jesus and that PS4 will outsell the PS2, now Switch / Nintendo is breaking some of those records and people are like "how cute sweety, but mommy is busy"
Rather than all that they more than likely just expected games like Yoshi and FE to hit this year. The first part of the year was soft in terms of SW.
People are running out of stuff to downplay the Switch with.