Depends on whether the lower-spec model releases on day one. If Series X is the only Xbox system being released on day one, then I can't imagine Microsoft pricing it above $499.99. If Series S or whatever is available on the same day, then I could imagine Microsoft pricing the Series S at $399.99 and the Series X at $599.99, though. Assuming that Sony doesn't have a second system planned right out of the gate, I honestly expect next gen to be similar to current gen in that Microsoft will cover both the low end and the high end of performance, while Sony will be somewhere in the middle. While I don't think Sony would ever pull another $599.99, I also can't imagine Sony pricing PlayStation 5 any lower than $449.99 with these specs at launch.
That said, I do think Microsoft has an edge with All Access, because the overall price of the console matters less when people can pay in installments.