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How reliable is VG Chartz sales figures?

Deeke

Deeke

Member
Oct 25, 2017
966
United States
While cruising through the slides from AMD's recent financial analyst day I noticed something interesting: They sourced VG Chartz for their console sales data.

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I've seen a few websites through up headlines like "AMD: Consoles have sold 150 million units since 2013". Others have used simple math to extrapolate a rough estimation of the Xbox One's total lifetime sales (150 - PS4's 108 million = 42 million) but this seems like a very very rough estimate to me.

How reliable is the site's data anyway? I'm curious. The data probably also includes Wii U too (a small smidgen but still makes a difference).
 

Deleted member 34714

User requested account closure
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Nov 28, 2017
1,617
MS doesn't give out numbers at all so no one can be reliable. That's all you need to know.

Everything else is just guesstimates.
 
Soulflarz

Soulflarz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,807
if people will buy it as credible and you can use it to prove a point in an investors meeting, why not
 

Deleted member 19533

User requested account closure
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Oct 27, 2017
3,873
What I've noticed is they estimate things, but then correct them after the fact once they have actual data. So, it kind of depends on what numbers, but they're far more accurate than people give them credit for generally speaking.
 
Swift_Gamer

Swift_Gamer

Banned
Dec 14, 2018
3,701
Rio de Janeiro
BlueBomberX said:
What I've noticed is they estimate things, but then correct them after the fact once they have actual data. So, it kind of depends on what numbers, but they're far more accurate than people give them credit for generally speaking.
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Yep. People will discard them if they don't fit their favorite console narrative. But sorry, folks, their numbers are far more accurate than what you believe they are.
 
Hailinel

Hailinel

Shamed a mod for a tag
Member
Oct 27, 2017
35,527
You'd be just as accurate by taping numbers to a dart board and throwing darts while blindfolded.
 
Clive

Clive

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,095
They correct their hardware numbers based on official numbers so those are generally somewhat reliable, if somewhat recent official numbers exist. The exception is consoles like the Vita and Xbox One where they can't correct them since no recent official numbers exist.

So, use VGchartz for the PS4 and Switch hardware totals and the numbers will be slightly outdated but fairly accurate. Use them for the Xbox One and Vita and who knows? Could be spot on, could be 20% off. They're pretty tight lipped about their methodology and sources, probably because much of it is statistics rather than sources.

Software numbers are known to be very inaccurate sometimes. Wouldn't use them at all for this.
 
SinCityAssassin

SinCityAssassin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,172
Swift_Gamer said:
Yep. People will discard them if they don't fit their favorite console narrative. But sorry, folks, their numbers are far more accurate than what you believe they are.
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The only pro I give to VG Chartz is that they will bother to display new correct information made public, which is more than I can say for Famitsu's digital estimates. It's just that everything else inbetween like their estimations and general methodology are mostly inaccurate enough that I can't give it the time of day. The fact that they do in fact display correct public information AND are a third party non-affiliated tracking site is why other organizations like Guinness and AMD use them as a convenient source piece.
 
Jakenbakin

Jakenbakin

Member
Jun 17, 2018
11,825
If they're using their own "methodology" it's 100% bunk. They do update numbers with proper sources of they exist, I think though. So in that sense, they're somewhere between Wikipedia and that one Uncle that works at Nintendo.
 
Decarb

Decarb

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,643
Their rest of the world figures are as wild as they can get, especially for individual games.
 
L Thammy

L Thammy

Spacenoid
Member
Oct 25, 2017
50,046
vgchartz
more like vg fartz

because it comes from somebody's ass

also because it stinks

also also because it's the next door neighbour of shit
 
IIFloodyII

IIFloodyII

Member
Oct 26, 2017
23,979
They sometimes have a good ballpark estimate for consoles (probably because most get updated enough to where they can guess well, like how a lot here can), but that's about it. I imagine they get sourced because it's a lot cheaper than using actual market research and analysts for a vague number.
 
Jon Carter

Jon Carter

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
5,746
Aquamarine had written an essay or something on them, with tons of research. Maybe someone can find it, but the bottom line is they are banned for a good reason.
 
L Thammy

L Thammy

Spacenoid
Member
Oct 25, 2017
50,046
Seriously, though, what I remember is that they essentially have less data than other sites that report sales, but they have some formula to estimate things which they insist is valid. They also retroactively adjust their estimates when better data than theirs comes out, and they've occasionally given sales estimates for games that didn't actually release.

The reason people like them is because they're a cheap and easy way to get data that looks okay.
 
trugs26

trugs26

Member
Jan 6, 2018
2,025
Aren't they estimates that get updated regularly based on numbers as they release? To me it was always a case of "not a bad estimate, and particularly reliable for legacy platforms".
 
Godzilla's Left Toe

Godzilla's Left Toe

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,099
Jon Carter said:
Aquamarine had written an essay or something on them, with tons of research. Maybe someone can find it, but the bottom line is they are banned for a good reason.
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Old Place


"For some reason, Bloomberg has eternally fell prey to the Chartz temptation.

They think Chartz is like...a professional analyst that makes sound projections taking a variety of hard data into account.

What they don't understand is that there is very little "hard data" underlying Chartz...it's all a bunch of capricious algorithms handpicked by Brett with little rhyme or reason.

That's why you see significant discrepancies between Chartz data and NPD / GfK aggregates.
As an addendum, whatever Chartz cannot steal from GAF leaks are mostly algorithms or numbers from officially-annoucned reports.

Their country-specific GfK hardware data in particular is notoriously bad because it's not sourced from GAF. So their worldwide sell-through hardware figures are all off.


Bloomberg doesn't make that distinction, largely stemming from an apathetic view of data integrity.

They need to learn how to delineate between reputable analyst sources (like IDG) and disreputable sources (like Chartz).


If I remember right, Bloomberg is one of the clients (or they have been one in the past) of VG Chartz's professional services."





​
 
JustinH

JustinH

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,399
SaberVS7 said:
Pachter isn't going to give his A-Game analysis in a public setting where he's not making 6-figures for doing so, so I wouldn't use his public face as a good barometer for his actual work.
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Yeah, I don't think his actual job isn't exactly making video game predictions either. I think it was something about like a go-between monitoring and tracking stuff for retailers and video game publishers or something? (I can't really remember) I think he keeps track of GoPro too, but I can't remember the rest.
I don't think he does as bad as people make it out either for what's just like some casual-like off-the-cuff talk (Jason Schreier article on some of his 2013 predictions at the end of 2016)
 
grand

grand

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,981
Lmao. It's a bunch of made numbers ran by a guy who got banned on GAF for posting a bunch of made up numbers lol
 

Deleted member 23212

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Oct 28, 2017
11,225
Honestly, the site's administrator/founder doesn't even really check up on the site anymore and there aren't really any other admins there to really fix/update things, attempts were made but since they were just doing volunteer work it was on a limited basis. They changed software sales to actual shipment numbers but I can't remember if they did so for hardware sales.
 
404LinkNotFound

404LinkNotFound

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,608
Im curious tho ,doesnt AMD supply the chips needed to manufacture the xb1 and ps4? Wouldnt they know how much consoles were shipped at least based on how much chips they sell the sony and MS? And not need to rely on Chartz?
Im not sure how these things work
 
grand

grand

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,981
trugs26 said:
Aren't they estimates that get updated regularly based on numbers as they release? To me it was always a case of "not a bad estimate, and particularly reliable for legacy platforms".
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Lol no. It's bunch of baseless estimates derived from arbitrary (and constantly changing) algorithms with an unreliably small sample size creating the foundation. And legacy platforms were only more reliable because it stole all of NPDs data back in the day before the NPD cracked down on leaks.

It's a horribly misleading site that's an insult to statistics and data analysis. And the idea that it's remotely accurate worldwide or in the digital future, is especially absurd.
 
elenarie

elenarie

Game Developer
Verified
Jun 10, 2018
9,821
It states that Battlefield 1 has sold 13.16 million copies.

The game has sold at least double that amount (can't go into specifics). So pretty damn inaccurate, lol.
 
CaviarMeths

CaviarMeths

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
10,655
Western Canada
How accurate you believe VGChartz to be is directly proportional to how much you enjoy console warring.

Their figures for PS4 and Switch hardware are probably accurate since that's all public information you can find anywhere. Some of their legacy hardware data would be accurate too, depending on the region, since NPD used to publicly release hardware numbers.

Everything that's not in an official press release or investor relations page is entirely made up. Literally. That includes data on hundreds of thousands of games, Xbox hardware, and your favorite game that only reports how many player profiles have been created.
 
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trugs26

trugs26

Member
Jan 6, 2018
2,025
grandjedi said:
Lol no. It's bunch of baseless estimates derived from arbitrary (and constantly changing) algorithms with an unreliably small sample size creating the foundation. And legacy platforms were only more reliable because it stole all of NPDs data back in the day before the NPD cracked down on leaks.

It's a horribly misleading site that's an insult to statistics and data analysis. And the idea that it's remotely accurate worldwide or in the digital future, is especially absurd.
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Cheers for the info.
 
perfectchaos007

perfectchaos007

It's Happening
Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,246
Texas
Well when there's no free legitimate source of information in regards to video game sales data in the USA, the illegitimate sources are prone to be cited. It's a shame the film industry gets public weekly data, and the television industry gets public data daily through Neilson, but the game industry hasn't seen a credible monthly source of numbers publicly since...2011 I believe?
 
Nanashrew

Nanashrew

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,328
Ron Paul said:
Well when there's no free legitimate source of information in regards to video game sales data in the USA, the illegitimate sources are prone to be cited. It's a shame the film industry gets public weekly data, and the television industry gets public data daily through Neilson, but the game industry hasn't seen a credible monthly source of numbers publicly since...2011 I believe?
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Yep. The industry is ripe for frauds and grifters to give and sale sales information to people in the industry, adjacent industries and other industries because the major companies in the industry do not want the numbers known.

It's frankly embarrassing and hurts many.
 
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