How would those dedicated VR games play on a flat TV in docked mode if they are made for VR? The answer is "they don't or not well" which means Nintendo has to dedicate resources to a AAA VR only game that could instead go to something like BOTW3 on the Switch 2 that would be a guaranteed success (compared to a new VR Nintendo console that might be a success).
And that is the problem, Nintendo has an issue with software droughts as is. They don't have the resources to support a VR platform, a traditional platform and mobile platforms by next generation. That is the kind of thing where you have to build up the warchest of studios over years to deliver in the next generation (aka what Microsoft has been doing acquiring studios this generation).
Does that actually work though? I mean BOTW VR didn't really make LaboVR this crazy success despite the huge success of BOTW overall, mostly because it didn't help sell the LaboVR product because the reviews of that mode weren't great (because it wasn't great compared to the dedicated VR experiences in the LaboVR kit). Bolt on VR only "subsidizes the library" when the experiences are good, and unless Nintendo is going to put in effort to the level of Skyrim VR (which again could be efforts otherwise spent on a flat BOTW 3 or its DLC) then it actually doesn't help sell any units.
It might have some sort of token value, but different perspectives in games or crap like BOTW VR (yes I said it its crap compared to real VR experiences) aren't system sellers. They aren't killer apps. They are "gee wiz I did it once and that is enough" kind of experiences.
Hell even in Oculus-land the biggest VR title isn't SkyrimVR or Dirt Rally VR or any of those AAA games with VR bolted on. The biggest VR title so far is Beat Saber, an indie experience made for VR that frankly sucks to play on a flat screen.
Now I am not against Nintendo getting into VR at all, quite the opposite in fact. Some of the experiences in LaboVR (namely the gun game) blew me away for how fun and simple they are and I bought a Rift after LaboVR because Nintendo hooked me on VR as a concept. But the gap between the LaboVR experiences and something like Asgard's Wrath is more than a generational gap. Its like comparing N64 games to Xbox 360 games.
Now with that said there are a pile of N64 games I would rather play than many 360 games, and frankly the pure fun of that LaboVR gun game is an experience I have only had one game (The Lab) match on the Rift when it comes to just pure fun. But to me LaboVR shows Nintendo is a LONG ways away from having VR being front and center like Oculus is with the Quest.
Personally I think the best case scenario next generation would be Facebook cutting a deal to just get Nintendo to make some simple games for the Quest/Quest 2 like they have done for smartphones. Nintendo IP and their natural talent for fun is something completely missing from Oculus exclusives (which I often find to be technically amazing but not actually that fun to play).
For your first point, the VR games wouldn't play on a flat screen, of course. They're VR games. For your point about Nintendo not being able to support another platform, their history says otherwise. Also, this platform intersects with the main platform. Its guts are the same. It is a premium device that runs all software from the Switch platform. Nintendo would not need to support it with exclusive titles to even half the extent they supported the 3DS
, DS, GBA, GBC or GB.
Every Switch VR unit sold could generate revenue whether the VR part of the platform really takes off commercially or not. If you buy a Switch VR and you're not satisfied with the rate of VR exclusives, the thing is still a whole Switch. It's not like a 3DS gamer buying a WiiU and then being disappointed that it sucks.
As to your point about VR modes of their flat games not being beneficial to the lineup, I just can't relate to your skepticism. Moss is a perfectly valid VR game. Astro Bot is a perfectly valid VR game. The difference between games like these, and a Super Mario Odyssey 2 that allows you to immerse yourself in the world with clever camera integration and literally no other work, would be slim in practical terms. The implementation of such a mode would not be anything like developing a whole new game. Hell, I bet it'd be less involved than the creation of the co-op mode in SMO1. Another thing that I think is a key point, they're literally creating these modes for LaboVR! LaboVR is not and never was going to be a good way to experience this stuff. If they can find time for this, they can find the time to do the same for an actual, dedicated HMD.
Skyrim went through a heavy conversion for VR. 2D Zeldas don't need that. Pokemon doesn't need that. Animal Crossing wouldn't need that. Captain Toad doesn't need that. I will replay Link's Awakening from start to finish in a VR diorama mode. I will spend probably dozens of hours hovering over my Animal Crossing village and my journey through the latest Pokemon game in VR (while splitting time with docked mode). Captain Toad 2 has a VR mode? Done deal. That's how I'm playing it. The next Pikmin? Same. I guess I just flatly disagree with the assertion that playing these games in VR would be a throwaway experience. I think it'd be quite amazing, honestly.
I don't understand why LaboVR shows that Nintendo couldn't release a Quest knock off within the next three years? I don't see the connection. Labo VR was damn impressive despite the hardware. What we're talking about here is Nintendo releasing a device in 2022 that is essentially a knock off of what Oculus put out in 2019.
I also couldn't disagree more with the "best case scenario" being Nintendo making cheap VR experiences on Facebook hardware. If anything, the best case scenario is the reverse. Nintendo makes Oculus' mobile VR hardware line obsolete and they retreat to just making VR apps/software. My apologies to the PCVR enthusiasts reading this.
I mean they could do something like
VR System
Tegra-based hardware
Can run all Switch games as well
Switch titles repurposed to run in VR as well
But they'd have to have realistic expectations for sales too. If they're cool with something like that selling say 5-8 million units a year as an additive part of their business, then so be it. You can't expect 18-20 mill units a year though I don't think.
This is key and I think including the device in the Switch lineup insulates it from this concern as it will be adding to the bucket, essentially. It'll generate revenue just as well as a regular Switch seeing as how it is also a regular Switch. 10,000,000 over the first three years might sound like a failure... Nah, that's a shining success for a VR device.