This is obviously a bold claim, so please READ the whole thing.
I thought about titling this, "Gamepass is the future, XBL Gold is the past" but honestly Gold sucks and I think it ought to die.
1. I AM NOT SAYING I THINK MICROSOFT WILL DO THIS.
2. I AM AWARE THAT GOLD IS A MAJOR SOURCE OF REVENUE FOR THE XBOX DIVISION.
3. I AM NOT ASKING IF YOU THINK THEY WILL DO THIS, PLEASE REFRAIN FROM MAKING THE THREAD ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL.
4. I AM ASKING IF YOU THINK THAT THE STRATEGY I DETAIL BELOW MAKES SENSE and/or COULD BE SUCCESSFUL, NOT IF IT WILL ACTUALLY BE IMPLEMENTED.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Main Argument:
MS should push the Gamepass as their ONE sub to rule them all and drop XBL Gold completely.
I don't think they should merge them. They should KILL THE GOLD REQUIREMENT FOR MULTIPLAYER.
Gamepass is a really great idea that actually makes sense to pay for (unlike multiplayer which has ALWAYS been something that consumers pay for grudgingly rather than enthusiastically). But it is a hard sell alongside the albatross of XBL Gold. And the simplest answer is to just fucking drop the Gold requirement and push Gamepass to grow larger enough to fully replace any lost revenue. Especially when considering how much of their base market Sony was able to outright take with the PS4. Sony and Nintendo will still compete and likely hold on to their strongest markets, but MS will crush in their home turf, win in terms of worldwide sales, and will make massive in roads in new and historically under performing markets.
The Moment:
Imagine MS hosting a big event or an E3 conference where they reveal a bold new strategy going forward.
An expanded Gamepass (with more tiers and maybe even with video/movies/music) and then dropping the mic by declaring multiplayer free for everyone on Xbox Live on ANY system that uses XBL.
They could turn Gamepass in to the ONE ENTERTAINMENT DEVICE that they had imagined the XB1 as, while also offering a competent and competitive next gen home console and media player to the sizable portion of the market that can't afford or can't benefit from a primarily digital and subscription based service.
They can sell systems, games, accessories, etc... to people who want a traditional system.
They can sell subscriptions to people who want a netflix of games (and music, movies, music, fucking anything...)
They can offer Xbox Live as the main means of multiplayer on ANY device (Including for the first time, their own god damn console)
They can really push their commitment to cross-play without stepping on the landmine of requiring a sub on their own system.
They could take away the major negative trait that has been used against them by their competitors in the console market from the beginning, but which Sony and Nintendo have both finally committed to as well. Catching their competition with their pants down and scooping up a market excited by the best value in multiplayer gaming OR the best subscription service around with robust support fro Cross Play with NO STRINGS ATTACHED.
Past Mistakes:
This is ultimately where the market is headed anyway and it would give them a chance to actually be ahead of the curve in a PRO CONSUMER fashion (as they have been a couple times already this gen) rather than the cluster fuck that was their awful initial XB1 strategy,
When people read about Microsoft's plans to put Live on everything, the question I saw asked everywhere was "so I have to pay for gold now?"
That is not a good place to be, but that is where gating off multiplayer has gotten them.
We all know MS shifted to Monthly Average User stats instead of dollars or units sold, but it was not just as a PR fig leaf for relatively lower sales than their competition. It actually makes sense in a connected world to determine success by engagement. But just like with the bullshit that was the original XB1 DRM policy, the real problem isn't what they're offering, but that there is no choice for those who may be interested and no inherent value to those who are not interested.
Anecdotal Points:
Most of my friends don't see the value in Gamepass (even the ones who get it for free through various means and that is why I am writing this) because Sony has better exclusives (re: PS4 vs XB1), and they can't see committing to Xbox for 3rd party games when they would also have to subscribe to PS Plus along with XBL Gold in order to get the most from the Gamepass.
And this is among people who already own both systems. The only advantage in the XBox One X for the big ass chunk of the market that is multi-system owners is among the subset of folks who are willing to pay extra for another sub or for games that are primarily single player. They are not targeting a large enough market versus the potential that the Gamepass has appeal to.
My wife and I play games via PS Plus. Only I have a subscription, and so we have to have her use "my system" while I use "her system." This is the actual work around that Sony offers for the bullshit of having to pay for multiplayer in a household with multiple players.
I can play Minecraft multiplayer on PC or Switch or Mobile without paying for XBL, so why would I ever play it on my XB1 when it just means requiring another subscription.
Clarity and a Conclusion:
When you go to the Gamepass FAQ they specifically felt the need to put this part in there:
That is there because people are naturally gonna ask the question, "wait, so do I need TWO subscriptions?" And there is not a lot to be happy about when the answer to that question is yes.
This is the same problem inherent to requiring Gold to play f2p games that are actually free to play everywhere EXCEPT on Xbox. You never want the answer to be "yes, you have to pay 2 subscriptions," because that means you are choosing to divide the potential consumer base.
But if they offer multiplayer free on every game and move the focus of their subscription model to purely be on actual games content, then this doesn't just allow them to reach parity with Sony and Nintendo and PC and mobile versions of f2p games, it actually gives them a leg up. It raises the standard on what is offered and breaks the pattern of successful companies gradually pushing consumers in directions that the consumers don't want to go.
Microsoft has made some big moves this generation:
1. The reversal of bullshit DRM.
2. The unheard of implementation of brute force enhanced backwards compatibility across multiple generations (and adding them to GwG permanently).
3. The removal of Gold requirements for chat and media streaming.
4. The implementation of Gamepass.
5. Support for crossplay on PC and Switch and PS4 (when Sony is forced to the table)
6. Bought a bunch of new studios.
All they need now is for number 7 to be the removal of Gold as a requirement for multiplayer, making them the immediate "go-to" for any kind of online multiplayer in the gaming market.
If they take this approach I think they could eat Sony's lunch in NA and the UK, and probably have the best shot they've ever managed in Europe, Asia, SA, etc...
I think they would actively take users from Sony and make themselves the default system of the next generation in a manner much closer to the PS4's dominance than the 360 ever achieved. Plus it would allow them to stay out of any direct competition with Nintendo by making their network inclusive to Nintendo rather than an alternative to it.
Maybe I am way off base, and if so please let me know below. I don't have the access to or general knowledge of all the numbers to know with any certainty that Gamepass can overcome losses from dropping XBL Gold, but Gamepass seems closer to what the market is demanding than anything else right now and I don't see it ever reaching its full potential as long as Gold is pulling it down.
Also, please correct me if I have made any outright factual errors above.
Thank you for reading.
And Mods please do a 360 and lock this straight out the door if this is a topic already being discussed in another thread.
I thought about titling this, "Gamepass is the future, XBL Gold is the past" but honestly Gold sucks and I think it ought to die.
1. I AM NOT SAYING I THINK MICROSOFT WILL DO THIS.
2. I AM AWARE THAT GOLD IS A MAJOR SOURCE OF REVENUE FOR THE XBOX DIVISION.
3. I AM NOT ASKING IF YOU THINK THEY WILL DO THIS, PLEASE REFRAIN FROM MAKING THE THREAD ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL.
4. I AM ASKING IF YOU THINK THAT THE STRATEGY I DETAIL BELOW MAKES SENSE and/or COULD BE SUCCESSFUL, NOT IF IT WILL ACTUALLY BE IMPLEMENTED.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Main Argument:
MS should push the Gamepass as their ONE sub to rule them all and drop XBL Gold completely.
I don't think they should merge them. They should KILL THE GOLD REQUIREMENT FOR MULTIPLAYER.
Gamepass is a really great idea that actually makes sense to pay for (unlike multiplayer which has ALWAYS been something that consumers pay for grudgingly rather than enthusiastically). But it is a hard sell alongside the albatross of XBL Gold. And the simplest answer is to just fucking drop the Gold requirement and push Gamepass to grow larger enough to fully replace any lost revenue. Especially when considering how much of their base market Sony was able to outright take with the PS4. Sony and Nintendo will still compete and likely hold on to their strongest markets, but MS will crush in their home turf, win in terms of worldwide sales, and will make massive in roads in new and historically under performing markets.
The Moment:
Imagine MS hosting a big event or an E3 conference where they reveal a bold new strategy going forward.
An expanded Gamepass (with more tiers and maybe even with video/movies/music) and then dropping the mic by declaring multiplayer free for everyone on Xbox Live on ANY system that uses XBL.
They could turn Gamepass in to the ONE ENTERTAINMENT DEVICE that they had imagined the XB1 as, while also offering a competent and competitive next gen home console and media player to the sizable portion of the market that can't afford or can't benefit from a primarily digital and subscription based service.
They can sell systems, games, accessories, etc... to people who want a traditional system.
They can sell subscriptions to people who want a netflix of games (and music, movies, music, fucking anything...)
They can offer Xbox Live as the main means of multiplayer on ANY device (Including for the first time, their own god damn console)
They can really push their commitment to cross-play without stepping on the landmine of requiring a sub on their own system.
They could take away the major negative trait that has been used against them by their competitors in the console market from the beginning, but which Sony and Nintendo have both finally committed to as well. Catching their competition with their pants down and scooping up a market excited by the best value in multiplayer gaming OR the best subscription service around with robust support fro Cross Play with NO STRINGS ATTACHED.
Past Mistakes:
This is ultimately where the market is headed anyway and it would give them a chance to actually be ahead of the curve in a PRO CONSUMER fashion (as they have been a couple times already this gen) rather than the cluster fuck that was their awful initial XB1 strategy,
When people read about Microsoft's plans to put Live on everything, the question I saw asked everywhere was "so I have to pay for gold now?"
That is not a good place to be, but that is where gating off multiplayer has gotten them.
We all know MS shifted to Monthly Average User stats instead of dollars or units sold, but it was not just as a PR fig leaf for relatively lower sales than their competition. It actually makes sense in a connected world to determine success by engagement. But just like with the bullshit that was the original XB1 DRM policy, the real problem isn't what they're offering, but that there is no choice for those who may be interested and no inherent value to those who are not interested.
Anecdotal Points:
Most of my friends don't see the value in Gamepass (even the ones who get it for free through various means and that is why I am writing this) because Sony has better exclusives (re: PS4 vs XB1), and they can't see committing to Xbox for 3rd party games when they would also have to subscribe to PS Plus along with XBL Gold in order to get the most from the Gamepass.
And this is among people who already own both systems. The only advantage in the XBox One X for the big ass chunk of the market that is multi-system owners is among the subset of folks who are willing to pay extra for another sub or for games that are primarily single player. They are not targeting a large enough market versus the potential that the Gamepass has appeal to.
My wife and I play games via PS Plus. Only I have a subscription, and so we have to have her use "my system" while I use "her system." This is the actual work around that Sony offers for the bullshit of having to pay for multiplayer in a household with multiple players.
I can play Minecraft multiplayer on PC or Switch or Mobile without paying for XBL, so why would I ever play it on my XB1 when it just means requiring another subscription.
Clarity and a Conclusion:
When you go to the Gamepass FAQ they specifically felt the need to put this part in there:
That is there because people are naturally gonna ask the question, "wait, so do I need TWO subscriptions?" And there is not a lot to be happy about when the answer to that question is yes.
This is the same problem inherent to requiring Gold to play f2p games that are actually free to play everywhere EXCEPT on Xbox. You never want the answer to be "yes, you have to pay 2 subscriptions," because that means you are choosing to divide the potential consumer base.
But if they offer multiplayer free on every game and move the focus of their subscription model to purely be on actual games content, then this doesn't just allow them to reach parity with Sony and Nintendo and PC and mobile versions of f2p games, it actually gives them a leg up. It raises the standard on what is offered and breaks the pattern of successful companies gradually pushing consumers in directions that the consumers don't want to go.
Microsoft has made some big moves this generation:
1. The reversal of bullshit DRM.
2. The unheard of implementation of brute force enhanced backwards compatibility across multiple generations (and adding them to GwG permanently).
3. The removal of Gold requirements for chat and media streaming.
4. The implementation of Gamepass.
5. Support for crossplay on PC and Switch and PS4 (when Sony is forced to the table)
6. Bought a bunch of new studios.
All they need now is for number 7 to be the removal of Gold as a requirement for multiplayer, making them the immediate "go-to" for any kind of online multiplayer in the gaming market.
If they take this approach I think they could eat Sony's lunch in NA and the UK, and probably have the best shot they've ever managed in Europe, Asia, SA, etc...
I think they would actively take users from Sony and make themselves the default system of the next generation in a manner much closer to the PS4's dominance than the 360 ever achieved. Plus it would allow them to stay out of any direct competition with Nintendo by making their network inclusive to Nintendo rather than an alternative to it.
Maybe I am way off base, and if so please let me know below. I don't have the access to or general knowledge of all the numbers to know with any certainty that Gamepass can overcome losses from dropping XBL Gold, but Gamepass seems closer to what the market is demanding than anything else right now and I don't see it ever reaching its full potential as long as Gold is pulling it down.
Also, please correct me if I have made any outright factual errors above.
Thank you for reading.
And Mods please do a 360 and lock this straight out the door if this is a topic already being discussed in another thread.
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