Congress can disqualify him from holding officeI heard somewhere today that even if he was impeached he could still run for reelection. My heart stopped a bit.
Congress can disqualify him from holding officeI heard somewhere today that even if he was impeached he could still run for reelection. My heart stopped a bit.
The nature of the Senate elections (only 1/3rd of the chamber being up every two years, meaning not every state will have an election) means you probably shouldn't infer too much from them. The GOP did gain seats, but look where they gained them - Missouri, North Dakota, Indiana and Florida. Florida is the only one that's legitimately troubling in terms of the Electoral College, but the other three are all safe Republican states that happened to have Democratic senators after 2012 due to bad opponents or incumbency.The Blue Wave is encouraging but the midterms also highlighted some dangers. The Republicans actually increased their majority in the Senate, the house which most closely aligns with the electoral college. That is to say, Republicans still have plenty of motivated support in regional and rural areas, which are given an amplified say via the electoral college.
Also, midterms are almost always won by the minority party because they are more motivated to vote. But Obama is a good example of why I wouldn't be reading much into the midterm results. Obama won in a landslide in 2008, and lost the midterm elections in 2010. He then won the presidential election easily in 2012, and got trounced in the 2014 midterms. The Republicans flipped 9 fucking senate seats.
I agree that voter turnout is the key, but that goes both ways. He's a cult of personality, he's going to get massive support. It's whether Trump convinces swing voters and independents to back him again.
I heard somewhere today that even if he was impeached he could still run for reelection. My heart stopped a bit.
I dunno maybe flyover country doesn't want to be powerless and dictated to by the shit stained, electricity deprived inferno of homelessness that is Utopian California.
Explain this logic. He was unlikely before but won so since he's unlikely again that means he'll win again?
The logic is that a lot of people on this forum severely underestimate Trump and his support. It happened twice so I wouldnt be surprised if it happens a third time.
The logic is that a lot of people on this forum severely underestimate Trump and his support. It happened twice so I wouldnt be surprised if it happens a third time.
there's a difference between underestimating support and being fed bad polling data and having the director of the fbi drop fake political bombshells while Russian agitprop creates chaos and Russian hackers compromise voter rolls and a suspicioislrecord electoral college fluke happens and the entire thing is swept under the rug by a wholly corrupt justice department.
I understand your point but thinking trump was going to lose in November 2016 was a perfectly rational position.
And actually so is thinking Trump may not in fact have won at all.
He did win, and believing in a conspiracy theory that he didn't is irrational. But yes, believing he would lose was rational and I was one of those people that thought Hillary would win. I'm not making that mistake again.
Underestimating his support is still a huge issue amongst progressives today. Huge. I remember anecdotal stories from July 2016 of people taken aback by the vociferousness of his supporters and how the MAGA banners and flags and bumper stickers were everywhere outside of the cities. By the size and passion at his rallies. There were clues but many people didn't want to look for them.
Really?I hope the Bernie or bust peeps learned their lesson this time.
There is such a progressive bubble here and many people don't understand and don't want to admit Trump is popular, or why he is. People need to open their eyes or they're gonna be shocked next year.
I don't know why do you Americans keep using an electoral system that made sense 200 years ago, certainly not today
Trump has the worst sustained popularity of any president since we've started keeping track if it. He barely squeaked by the primary with under 50% of the vote, won the presidency with 46% of the vote.
The correct argument is that his coalition works, despite his unpopularity. But he isn't "popular".
I don't know why do you Americans keep using an electoral system that made sense 200 years ago, certainly not today
It still makes sense today. No electoral system is perfect, especially not in a 2-party environment. Besides, it will never be amended in our lifetime.
This happens everywhere. In the U.K., Tories got majority with a minority of the votes, same with Liberals in Canada.
He is very popular amongst his base, arguably more than any previous GOP president. And is base is made up of reliable voters.
This is different. In those countries there are multiple parties which have to combine to form a government. Every vote still counts as one. Here there are two parties and not everyone's vote is equal.This happens everywhere. In the U.K., Tories got majority with a minority of the votes, same with Liberals in Canada.
I don't know why do you Americans keep using an electoral system that made sense 200 years ago, certainly not today
Because it's advantageous to a certain party and that party will never agree to changing it, so you need that certain party lose a ton of seats to the point where the other party can change the system on their own.I don't know why do you Americans keep using an electoral system that made sense 200 years ago, certainly not today
The logic is that a lot of people on this forum severely underestimate Trump and his support. It happened twice so I wouldnt be surprised if it happens a third time.
Sadly true aside from him eating a baby on TV. He'd get away with that too.If Trump wins...
What do you mean "if"? Y'all should mentally prepare yourselves now and buckle up for another 4 years of this orange dickhead. Warren, Bernie or Buttgeejdtstsfhfh, aren't going to beat him. Mitch the Bitch and our impotent ass Senate ain't gonna do shit either. So unless the motherfucker dies of a heart attack or eats a baby on national television, we're stuck with him. You can thank ignorance, misplaced fear, Iack of empathy and the dumb half of White America for it.
If Trump wins...
What do you mean "if"? Y'all should mentally prepare yourselves now and buckle up for another 4 years of this orange dickhead. Warren, Bernie or Buttgeejdtstsfhfh, aren't going to beat him. Mitch the Bitch and our impotent ass Senate ain't gonna do shit either. So unless the motherfucker dies of a heart attack or eats a baby on national television, we're stuck with him. You can thank ignorance, misplaced fear, Iack of empathy and the dumb half of White America for it.
Ultimately it comes down to the economy. If the country doesn't enter into a recession, or if it doesn't weaken significantly, its going to make the D's job much harder unless their impeachment proceedings unearth further damning evidenceAll these warnings and it wont mean shit if trump can garner some positive tv coverage on voting day. I'm convinced a large number of US voters are that fickle.
Ultimately it comes down to the economy. If the country doesn't enter into a recession, or if it doesn't weaken significantly, its going to make the D's job much harder unless their impeachment proceedings unearth further damning evidence
If Trump wins...
What do you mean "if"? Y'all should mentally prepare yourselves now and buckle up for another 4 years of this orange dickhead. Warren, Bernie or Buttgeejdtstsfhfh, aren't going to beat him. Mitch the Bitch and our impotent ass Senate ain't gonna do shit either. So unless the motherfucker dies of a heart attack or eats a baby on national television, we're stuck with him. You can thank ignorance, misplaced fear, Iack of empathy and the dumb half of White America for it.
Trump has the worst sustained popularity of any president since we've started keeping track if it. He barely squeaked by the primary with under 50% of the vote, won the presidency with 46% of the vote.
The correct argument is that his coalition works, despite his unpopularity. But he isn't "popular".
It still makes sense today. No electoral system is perfect, especially not in a 2-party environment. Besides, it will never be amended in our lifetime.
This is a bad kind of energy.
Imagine if we had this kind of energy entering elections in 2018 and 2019? We wouldn't have gotten a Democratic Kentucky governor who may be paving the way for a future Democrat to take over Mitch McConnell's seat.
I'm pessimistic as fuck about the Dems chances but even I think that's unlikely. The Republicans are disadvantaged in the popular vote and always struggle there.
There is not a scenario on Earth I can fathom that would make me Vote for Trump HOWEVER, none of the current Democratic Candidates are worth a damn. Is this really all we have? They are all extremely flawed. And at the end if the day I will vote for one of them but I am sane ( politically speaking).
I want to be wrong.
This is the most ill-informed take. If you study that race the mere fact Bevin got so close is troubling.
He was only the second Republican Kentucky governor since 1971.
There is not a scenario on Earth I can fathom that would make me Vote for Trump HOWEVER, none of the current Democratic Candidates are worth a damn. Is this really all we have? They are all extremely flawed. And at the end if the day I will vote for one of them but I am sane ( politically speaking).
I want to be wrong.
Nonsense. He has near universal support in the Republican Party. He's very popular with tens of millions of people.
That is insanely irrational given his disapproval polling plus rising turnout.
I'm not saying you're a troll, but that is literally troll country given everything we are seeing.
For Trump or a Trumpist to win the popular vote in 2020 is going to take massive voter suppression or fraud. Full stop.
That is insanely irrational given his disapproval polling plus rising turnout.
I'm not saying you're a troll, but that is literally troll country given everything we are seeing.
For Trump or a Trumpist to win the popular vote in 2020 is going to take massive voter suppression or fraud. Full stop.
But that doesn't make sense. It's oversimplified and shallow. It's like saying the weatherman told us it wasn't going to rain yesterday and it did so it will definitely rain today, too.
Because we have a system that makes it insurmountably difficult to change it.I don't know why do you Americans keep using an electoral system that made sense 200 years ago, certainly not today