1. pswii60

    pswii60
    Member OP

    I'm seeing this estimate from IHS repeated all over the place right now.

    A few examples:
    Who is IHS? And why is everyone suddenly quoting their numbers? Does anyone have a link to the source data and when it was dated?

    As for the 76.6 for PS4: we already know that PS4 has reached 79m in April, based on official numbers from Sony - was that sold to retailers or consumers? Although I find it difficult to believe there are over 2m PS4 sitting idly on shelves. And when is this IHS data from?

    EDIT: Sorry, the IHS data is to end of March 2018 - it says so in the bloody tweet (I blame lack of sleep due to a newborn!)
     
  2. Feorax

    Feorax
    Member

    360 was at around 40 million in 2010, which was at a similar point in it's lifecycle, so that seems about right.
     
  3. v_iHuGi

    v_iHuGi
    Banned Member

    360 blew up with Kinect and 360S if I remember correctly.
     
  4. MrTired

    MrTired
    Member

  5. pswii60

    pswii60
    Member OP

    It did indeed. Kinect was a huge success in expanding 360's reach, but it was also a total fad (not that Microsoft realised). And 360S moved away from the RROD fears with a much better built piece of hardware.
    Zhugex was predicting around 35-36m at the beginning of this year IIRC. but then EA's estimates confused everyone. Would be interesting to understand more about IHS Markit's credibility and their methods.
     
  6. Alex840

    Alex840
    Member

    So still 2:1, sounds about right.
     
  7. Knight613

    Knight613
    Member

    I could certainly believe 39 million consoles shipped.

    I don't know that I'd believe 39 million consoles sold to consumers.
     
  8. ArmGunar

    ArmGunar
    Member

    Same
     
  9. bombshell

    bombshell
    Member

    Zhuge already said 35m sold by end of 2017. There's no way they sold 4.1m in the quiet Q1, but it could be realistic number if its shipped. That would need to be compared to 79m PS4 instead of 76.6m.
     
  10. Elven_Star

    Elven_Star
    Member

    That makes Switch's numbers all the more impressive.
     
  11. if they are using the term Installed base correctly this is the number of consoles that are functioning and been used. If someone already has a Xbox One and then trade for a Xbox One S this does not change the install base.
     
  12. KillerMan91

    KillerMan91
    Member

    it was shipped. Also PS4 has over 2 million units in the shelves pretty much all the time. At the end of December sell trough for PS4 was 73.6 million and shipped 76.5 million. Almost 3 million difference.
     
  13. MrTired

    MrTired
    Member

    That what I thought but I wanted people with greater insight to confirm.
     
  14. pswii60

    pswii60
    Member OP

    It does if the retailer then sells the traded Xbox One, which they probably will.
    Do you happen to have a source for that?
     
  15. So you mean PS4 numbers can be lower as well since someone can trade PS4 for PS4 Slim or Pro?
     
  16. Mory Dunz

    Mory Dunz
    Member

    if accurate that's only around an average of like 9m a year.


    wtf
     
  17. Protome

    Protome
    Member

    Yeah, if the Switch keeps the pace Nintendo is expecting it’ll overtake the XB1 in sales next financial year. With 3+ years less time on the market. Bonkers.
     
  18. You are talking about total sales, in this case either way the number would be accounted in the data.
     
  19. ZhugeEX

    ZhugeEX
    诸葛亮 - 卧龙 Administrator

    IHS are a market research company. Their data is of course just an estimate, but you can take it to be somewhat of a ballpark figure. The estimate isn't too different from other analysts but is certainly the highest one I've seen at the moment.
     
  20. z0m3le

    z0m3le
    Member

    PS4 at ~79M; XB1 at ~39M, after 4 and a half years on the market. Switch at ~18M after 1 year on the market, targeting ~38M after 2 years on the market. Honestly this paints a pretty healthy ecosystem for gaming if we ignore that Switch occupies both the Console and Handheld space, showing a general shrinking of dedicated consoles from last gen to this one (even if we ignore the Wii)
     
  21. bombshell

    bombshell
    Member

    What is 'wtf' about that? They're too reliant on a single market and it's a well known average used in estimations for them (8-9m)
     
  22. Prine

    Prine
    Member

    By accounts seems like Xbox is having a great 2018, think Matt said this in his last call, Xbox growth has been suprising.
     
  23. I have no idea about the real sales of neither console, i just remember the talk about installed base because when the RROD happened the Ps3 had a bigger IB than the 360

    Edit: And that is why i'm asking if they are using the term right
    Edit 2: Yes, it COULD be the case but I have no idea if it is.
     
  24. Knight613

    Knight613
    Member

    That and they basically pride themselves on selling the majority of their consoles during the holiday.
     
  25. pswii60

    pswii60
    Member OP

    Exactly, you are agreeing with me.
    That's not great but better than I think we've been estimating. It would put it on track to doing 55m+ by the time the next consoles launch. That would put it above the SNES at least. And basically by relying on a couple of markets.
     
  26. Disco

    Disco
    Member

    curious if this massive lead Sony has will continue in next gen. they have the popularity on their side and are pretty solid with the games lineup and advertising too this gen.

    but they've also been lame as shit in terms of console features and their services. Microsoft been doing a much better job of their infrastructure (xbox games pass, backwards compatibility, UHD Discs in their upgraded console etc.). I really hope Sony doesn't continue to rest on its laurels and actually considers upgrading PSN and their console features in the future.
     
  27. christocolus

    christocolus
    Member

    Aint bad..aint bad at all. should be well over that byt he time this gen comes to an end. Also I like this quote very much "$MSFT is significantly expanding its lineup of videogame content this year" Thats very much in line with Phil's recent comments about acquiring even more game studios.
     
  28. Thorrgal

    Thorrgal
    Member

    Actually 35M sold by the end of January, beginning of February. So no way they sold 4M in less than 2 months
     
  29. Knight613

    Knight613
    Member

    Sony will have the lead not necessarily thanks to services they offer, but because the majority of their sales come from outside the US. It's a big world out there that Microsoft just kind of ignores.
     
  30. Could you please show us some of that nice graphs that you usually use ? It would be nice to see how the total sales of Ps4 + X1 compared to total sales of Ps3+360
     
  31. My back of the napkin, out of my ass figure would be about 40 million, so that's reassuring for me. Seems like enough for a healthy, sustainable platform even if they're not leading.
     
  32. Disco

    Disco
    Member

    this is true, I'm just venting about how poor Sony's service offerings have been compared to Microsoft. Xbox Scarlett is practically a lock for backwards compatibility, I hope PS5 follows suit. plus PSN is lacking in features compared to XBL. they seem to not have any drive to offer more either.
     
  33. SuperSplit

    SuperSplit
    Banned Member

    Yup, until the new studios start pumping out exclusives for Microsoft they won't be able to gain much ground in improving that ratio.
    Halo Infinite could still be a good system seller for them if they nail it though, but this cycle is a messy loss, better to prepare for next gen while offering backwards compatible on X1X @30fps (maybe [email protected] if nextgen game can do it on the X1X), dumping base & S in the garbage.
     
  34. bombshell

    bombshell
    Member

    With the X in the market, how is growth from the low sales of 1H 2017 surprising? It would be more surprising if they did not show any growth so far this year.

    That's when he posted it, not for when the estimation was. He confirmed that it was end of year estimation.
     
  35. ZhugeEX

    ZhugeEX
    诸葛亮 - 卧龙 Administrator

    Just to clarify, it was around 35m end of 2017. Not an exact number of course.

    But I do agree, this estimate is higher than the others I've seen, but not significantly so.
     
  36. VGC was (almost) right all along.
    All along. /s
     
  37. MrTired

    MrTired
    Member

    How do you ship 4.1 million in 3 months let alone sell 4.1 in 3 months and only be up 15% yoy from the 3 month period in 2017 which was there worst?
     
  38. MajorBritten

    MajorBritten
    Member

    Thats higher than I expected considering its been doing badly in Europe, the the exception of the UK, and sales are pretty much non-existent in Japan.
     
  39. And in February at that, which is typically the deadest times of the year in terms of hw sales.

    The estimates in the OP are a tad too generous.
     
  40. boi

    boi
    Member

    IHS is a publicly listed firm. I dont think they produce misinformation.
     
  41. bombshell

    bombshell
    Member

    IHS is probably overestimating EU and Rotw Xbox numbers compared to Zhuge's estimates. Following his estimation they would be at 36-37 end of March by comparison.
     
  42. Bulby

    Bulby
    Member

    Sounds right and expected. That whole reveal event and the following E3 contained probably the worst decisions I have ever seen from one of the big 3.

    I expect them to be a lot better next gen, but I think they have forever turned off a section of gamers.
     
  43. B.O.O.M.

    B.O.O.M.
    Member

    You need to include the digital downloads to make it work
     
  44. THEVOID

    THEVOID
    Member

    Wow. Higher than we thought.
     
  45. Coolwhip

    Coolwhip
    Banned Member

    Is Switch actually going to surpass Xbone this gen?
     
  46. pswii60

    pswii60
    Member OP

    Definitely, even if just for the fact that Switch probably won't see a successor until 2022/23, and it also captures both Nintendo's handheld and console markets in one. It's also already sold and is still selling, like hotcakes.
     
  47. Jenea

    Jenea
    Member

    So the ratio must be similar to the beggining of this gen: 2:1
     
  48. elzeus

    elzeus
    Member

    58.96M by holiday 2019! 62M+ if Halo Infinity somehow makes it out by then.
     
  49. MrTired

    MrTired
    Member

    [​IMG]
     
  50. THEVOID

    THEVOID
    Member

    Easily. The question is can it leapfrog too number 1?