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IHS: Xbox One at 39.1m consoles sold globally

Oct 27, 2017
6,947
UK
#1
I'm seeing this estimate from IHS repeated all over the place right now.
A few examples:
Who is IHS? And why is everyone suddenly quoting their numbers? Does anyone have a link to the source data and when it was dated?

As for the 76.6 for PS4: we already know that PS4 has reached 79m in April, based on official numbers from Sony - was that sold to retailers or consumers? Although I find it difficult to believe there are over 2m PS4 sitting idly on shelves. And when is this IHS data from?

EDIT: Sorry, the IHS data is to end of March 2018 - it says so in the bloody tweet (I blame lack of sleep due to a newborn!)
 
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Oct 27, 2017
203
#2
360 was at around 40 million in 2010, which was at a similar point in it's lifecycle, so that seems about right.
 
OP
OP
pswii60
Oct 27, 2017
6,947
UK
#5
360 blew up with Kinect and 360S if I remember correctly.
It did indeed. Kinect was a huge success in expanding 360's reach, but it was also a total fad (not that Microsoft realised). And 360S moved away from the RROD fears with a much better built piece of hardware.
Matt, MatPiscatella, ZhugeEX can any of you comment on the validity of this number?
Zhugex was predicting around 35-36m at the beginning of this year IIRC. but then EA's estimates confused everyone. Would be interesting to understand more about IHS Markit's credibility and their methods.
 
Dec 4, 2017
3,077
Brazil
#11
if they are using the term Installed base correctly this is the number of consoles that are functioning and been used. If someone already has a Xbox One and then trade for a Xbox One S this does not change the install base.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,736
#12
As for the 76.6 for PS4: we already know that PS4 has reached 79m in April, based on official numbers from Sony - was that sold to retailers or consumers? Although I find it difficult to believe there are over 2m PS4 sitting idly on shelves. And when is this IHS data from?

EDIT: Sorry, the IHS data is to end of March 2018 - it says so in the bloody tweet (I blame lack of sleep due to a newborn!)
it was shipped. Also PS4 has over 2 million units in the shelves pretty much all the time. At the end of December sell trough for PS4 was 73.6 million and shipped 76.5 million. Almost 3 million difference.
 
Oct 28, 2017
2,174
#13
Zhuge already said 35m sold by end of 2017. There's no way they sold 4.1m in the quiet Q1, but it could be realistic number if its shipped. That would need to be compared to 79m PS4 instead of 76.6m.
That what I thought but I wanted people with greater insight to confirm.
 
OP
OP
pswii60
Oct 27, 2017
6,947
UK
#14
if they are using the therm Install base correctly this is the number of consoles that are functioning and been used. If someone already has a Xbox One and than trade for a Xbox One S this does not change the install base
It does if the retailer then sells the traded Xbox One, which they probably will.
it was shipped. Also PS4 has over 2 million units in the shelves pretty much all the time. At the end of December sell trough for PS4 was 73.6 million and shipped 76.5 million. Almost 3 million difference.
Do you happen to have a source for that?
 

ZhugeEX

诸葛亮 - 卧龙
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
2,589
#19
I
Who is IHS? And why is everyone suddenly quoting their numbers? Does anyone have a link to the source data and when it was dated?
IHS are a market research company. Their data is of course just an estimate, but you can take it to be somewhat of a ballpark figure. The estimate isn't too different from other analysts but is certainly the highest one I've seen at the moment.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,742
#20
That makes Switch's numbers all the more impressive.
PS4 at ~79M; XB1 at ~39M, after 4 and a half years on the market. Switch at ~18M after 1 year on the market, targeting ~38M after 2 years on the market. Honestly this paints a pretty healthy ecosystem for gaming if we ignore that Switch occupies both the Console and Handheld space, showing a general shrinking of dedicated consoles from last gen to this one (even if we ignore the Wii)
 
Dec 4, 2017
3,077
Brazil
#23
So you mean PS4 numbers can be lower as well since someone can trade PS4 for PS4 Slim or Pro?
I have no idea about the real sales of neither console, i just remember the talk about installed base because when the RROD happened the Ps3 had a bigger IB than the 360

Edit: And that is why i'm asking if they are using the term right
Edit 2: Yes, it COULD be the case but I have no idea if it is.
 
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OP
OP
pswii60
Oct 27, 2017
6,947
UK
#25
You are talking about total sales, in this case either way the number would be accounted in the data.
Exactly, you are agreeing with me.
if accurate that's only around an average of like 9m a year.


wtf
That's not great but better than I think we've been estimating. It would put it on track to doing 55m+ by the time the next consoles launch. That would put it above the SNES at least. And basically by relying on a couple of markets.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,715
#26
curious if this massive lead Sony has will continue in next gen. they have the popularity on their side and are pretty solid with the games lineup and advertising too this gen.

but they've also been lame as shit in terms of console features and their services. Microsoft been doing a much better job of their infrastructure (xbox games pass, backwards compatibility, UHD Discs in their upgraded console etc.). I really hope Sony doesn't continue to rest on its laurels and actually considers upgrading PSN and their console features in the future.
 
Oct 27, 2017
3,176
#27
Aint bad..aint bad at all. should be well over that byt he time this gen comes to an end. Also I like this quote very much "$MSFT is significantly expanding its lineup of videogame content this year" Thats very much in line with Phil's recent comments about acquiring even more game studios.
 
Oct 26, 2017
3,068
#28
Zhuge already said 35m sold by end of 2017. There's no way they sold 4.1m in the quiet Q1, but it could be realistic number if its shipped. That would need to be compared to 79m PS4 instead of 76.6m.
Actually 35M sold by the end of January, beginning of February. So no way they sold 4M in less than 2 months
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,012
San Francisco
#29
curious if this massive lead Sony has will continue in next gen. they have the popularity on their side and are pretty solid with the games lineup and advertising too this gen.

but they've also been lame as shit in terms of console features and their services. Microsoft been doing a much better job of their infrastructure (xbox games pass, backwards compatibility, UHD Discs in their upgraded console etc.). I really hope Sony doesn't continue to rest on its laurels and actually considers upgrading PSN and their console features in the future.
Sony will have the lead not necessarily thanks to services they offer, but because the majority of their sales come from outside the US. It's a big world out there that Microsoft just kind of ignores.
 
Dec 4, 2017
3,077
Brazil
#30
IHS are a market research company. Their data is of course just an estimate, but you can take it to be somewhat of a ballpark figure. The estimate isn't too different from other analysts but is certainly the highest one I've seen at the moment.
Could you please show us some of that nice graphs that you usually use ? It would be nice to see how the total sales of Ps4 + X1 compared to total sales of Ps3+360
 
Nov 4, 2017
1,435
#31
My back of the napkin, out of my ass figure would be about 40 million, so that's reassuring for me. Seems like enough for a healthy, sustainable platform even if they're not leading.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,715
#32
Sony will have the lead not necessarily thanks to services they offer, but because the majority of their sales come from outside the US. It's a big world out there that Microsoft just kind of ignores.
this is true, I'm just venting about how poor Sony's service offerings have been compared to Microsoft. Xbox Scarlett is practically a lock for backwards compatibility, I hope PS5 follows suit. plus PSN is lacking in features compared to XBL. they seem to not have any drive to offer more either.
 

SuperSplit

Banned
Member
Nov 16, 2017
523
#33
So still 2:1, sounds about right.
Yup, until the new studios start pumping out exclusives for Microsoft they won't be able to gain much ground in improving that ratio.
Halo Infinite could still be a good system seller for them if they nail it though, but this cycle is a messy loss, better to prepare for next gen while offering backwards compatible on X1X @30fps (maybe [email protected] if nextgen game can do it on the X1X), dumping base & S in the garbage.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,191
Denmark
#34
By accounts seems like Xbox is having a great 2018, think Matt said this in his last call, Xbox growth has been suprising.
With the X in the market, how is growth from the low sales of 1H 2017 surprising? It would be more surprising if they did not show any growth so far this year.

Actually 35M sold by the end of January, beginning of February. So no way they sold 4M in less than 2 months
That's when he posted it, not for when the estimation was. He confirmed that it was end of year estimation.
 

ZhugeEX

诸葛亮 - 卧龙
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
2,589
#35
Actually 35M sold by the end of January, beginning of February. So no way they sold 4M in less than 2 months
Just to clarify, it was around 35m end of 2017. Not an exact number of course.

But I do agree, this estimate is higher than the others I've seen, but not significantly so.
 
Oct 28, 2017
2,174
#37
How do you ship 4.1 million in 3 months let alone sell 4.1 in 3 months and only be up 15% yoy from the 3 month period in 2017 which was there worst?
 
Nov 2, 2017
535
#38
Thats higher than I expected considering its been doing badly in Europe, the the exception of the UK, and sales are pretty much non-existent in Japan.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,191
Denmark
#41
How do you ship 4.1 million in 3 months let alone sell 4.1 in 3 months and only be up 15% yoy from the 3 month period in 2017 which was there worst?
IHS is probably overestimating EU and Rotw Xbox numbers compared to Zhuge's estimates. Following his estimation they would be at 36-37 end of March by comparison.
 
Oct 29, 2017
750
#42
Sounds right and expected. That whole reveal event and the following E3 contained probably the worst decisions I have ever seen from one of the big 3.

I expect them to be a lot better next gen, but I think they have forever turned off a section of gamers.
 
OP
OP
pswii60
Oct 27, 2017
6,947
UK
#46
Is Switch actually going to surpass Xbone this gen?
Definitely, even if just for the fact that Switch probably won't see a successor until 2022/23, and it also captures both Nintendo's handheld and console markets in one. It's also already sold and is still selling, like hotcakes.